No. 9/7 Texas Longhorns vs. Florida Gators
The Texas Longhorns open Southeastern Conference play (and a month-long road trip) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida, on Saturday. 2:30 Central time kick, broadcast on ESPN. Bob Wischusen with the play-by-play, Louis Riddick with analysis, and Kris Budden on the sidelines. The game can be heard around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns Craig Way, joined by Roger Wallace in the booth and by Will Matthews on the sidelines. Listen in Austin on the Flagship, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM, in Tyler on KTBB 600 AM and 92.1 FM, and in Midland on KBAT 99.9 FM. SiriusXM Channel 82. Dr. Rubén Pizarro-Silva and Jesus Mendoza with the call in Spanish on certain Longhorn Radio Network affiliates and streaming on the Texas Longhorn App and online.
The Longhorns are favored by 4.5, and the over/under is just 42.5. The money line: Texas minus 200 (down from 260), Florida plus 170 (down from 215). The line opened at Texas -7.5. A lot of money has moved to the Gators.
Interesting article from ESPN on the Mannings and Florida. Semi-clickbait, but I like college football history. Let’s hope Arch follows in Eli’s footsteps.
Haters’ guide to the Mannings vs. Florida Gators – ESPN
College Football Last Weekend
What a weekend. Holy cow. Friday night Virginia with the overtime upset of Florida State. Southern Cal stumbled at Illinois (32-34), while the Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat Arkansas so bad (56-13) that Sam Pittman got fired on Sunday. Best part of that game for me was watching some of it in Blanco with the Dean’s as we celebrated Micah’s 6th birthday. No. 4 Louisiana State at No. 13 Ole Miss was an excellent football game, Rebels with the solid 24-19 win. No. 9 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical and Auburn played an ugly one, but the aggies got the win 16-10. No. 17 Alabama 24-21 over No. 5 Georgia between the hedges, the Bulldogs first home loss in 6 years. Oregon withstood the Nittany Lions and the whiteout for a 30-24 double overtime win. A wild and entertaining day. A look at these and other games below.
College Football This Weekend
Some good games this weekend, but after last weekend’s stellar schedule, it seems a bit mundane. No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 17 Alabama, 2:30 on ABC. No. 11 Texas Tech at Houston, 6:00 p.m. on ESPN – both the Sand Aggies and Cougars are 4-0. Premier game of the day should be No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State (6:30 p.m. on ABC), but the Cavaliers took a bit of the shine off this one. Go Noles.
2025 Florida Gators
Coach Billy Napier is having another tough year. He salvaged last season by closing it out with wins over No. 22 LSU, No. 9 Ole Miss, and rival Florida State, and with a bowl win over Tulane. He finished 2024 with an 8-5 record and not on as hot of a seat as it was looking after the 49-17 loss to the Longhorns in Austin.
This season started with a 55-0 win over Long Island University, but the next weekend the Gators got beat at home 18-16 by South Florida. A semi-respectable offensive game (given the year), as Lagway was 23/33 for 222 (1 TD, 1 INT), and the Gators rushed for 133 yards.
Florida lost 10-20 to No. 3 Louisiana State in Baton Rouge, despite 23 first downs and 366 yards of offense. But Lagway’s five (5) interceptions sealed that loss.
Florida then went to south Florida and got spanked by No. 4 Miami (Florida) 26-7. Starting quarterback DJ Lagway got hurt. The offense was terrible. 141 yards of offense (80 rushing, 141 passing). Just 7 first downs and zero for 13 on third downs. Lagway sacked 4 times.
The rest of their season is at No. Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, Mississippi State (who is not bad) at home, No. 12 Georgia in the Swamp, at Kentucky, then at No. 4 Ole Miss, No. 15 Tennessee, and No. 18 Florida State. Brutal.
It looks like DJ Lagway (No. 2, 6-3, 247 pound sophomore), will play. Highly touted recruit out of Willis, Texas, Lagway didn’t play in Austin last year because of an injury. He limps into this game with some sort of leg injury. Injury or not, Lagway has struggled in 2025. 6 interceptions to 5 touchdowns. He’s completing a respectable 67.5% of his passes (for 690 yards). 9 sacks for 45 yards. The stat sheet shows 26 rushes for 20 yards. His RTG is 118.3, and his QBR is 37.7. For comparison, Arch Manning’s RTG is 154.1, and his QBR is 54.3. To put those numbers in perspective:
If Lagway can’t go or isn’t going well, expect to see true freshman Tramell Jones, Jr. (No. 17, 6 foot 203 lbs). Jones saw limited action in the LIU game, and his stats are not meaningful given the competition. But his RTG was 164.5 and QBR was 40.6.
The Florida wide receivers: Vernell Brown III (No. 8, 5-11, 178 lbs freshman) leads the Gators with 18 receptions for 219 yards, with a long of 41. Eugene Wilson III (No. 3, 5-10, 194 lbs sophomore) has 15 catches for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns. J. Michael Sturdivant (No. 9, 6-2, 213 lbs, Senior [Cal & UCLA]), has 8 catches for 76 yards and touchdown.
Tight end Hayden Hansen (No. 89, 6-8, 269 lbs, Junior from Weatherford) is second on the team with 15 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. The other tight end, Tony Livingston (No. 86, 6-5, 264 lbs junior) has 5 catches for 38 yards and 1 score.
Jadan Baugh (No. 13, 6-1, 231 lbs, sophomore) leads the Florida rushing attack. 49 carries for 289 yards and 2 touchdowns (Florida’s only rushing touchdowns), and a respectable 5.9 yards per carry average. Their second best back (Ja’Kobi Jackson 27 carries for 98 yards) is out. Next up are probably Anthony Rubio (sophomore, and yes, son of Secretary of State Marco Rubio) and freshman Duke Clark.
All in all, a moribund Florida offense. I just can’t see them putting up many points on Texas.
The Florida defense is good, with lots of guys back from last year and a decently deep bench. Not great, but good so far. Linebacker Myles Graham (No. 5, 6 foot, 198 lbs sophomore) leads Florida with 24 tackles (13 solo). Brendan Bett (No. 90, 6-5, 308 lbs sophomore [Baylor] D line) has 17 tackles (8 solo), and Jordan Castell (No. 14, 6-2, 213 junior DB) has 17 tackles (9 solo). EDGE Tyreak Sapp (No. 94, 6-3, 274 lbs redshirt senior) has 11 tackles and 2 sacks. Last year, Sapp led the Gators with 7 sacks and 13 TFL. He was the highest PFF graded player on the team last year at 90.4. His dad Warren was pretty good. Also at Edge, Kamran James (No. 24, 6-6, 270 lbs junior) has 11 tackles and 2 sacks, and George Gumbs Jr. (No. 34, 6-4, 250 lbs, senior) has 10 tackles and a sack. Defensive lineman Caleb Banks is out. He was a good one.
So, a good defensive line but not one with much push. A competent and deep linebacker corps. Adequate secondary. Let’s hope the Horns add to their misery.
Texas Longhorns vs. Florida Gators
The Statistics
Offense
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Rushing Offense | #37 – 202.8 ypg | #107 – 123.0 ypg |
| Passing Offense | #64 – 236.0 ypg | #90 – 205.3 ypg |
| Total Offense | #41 – 438.8 ypg | #115 – 328.3 ypg |
| Scoring Offense | #55 – 31.8 ppg | #99 – 22.0 ppg |
| First Downs | #72 – 20.8/game | #87 – 19.5/game |
| Sacks Allowed | #9 – 3, 9 yards | #84 – 9, 45 yards |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed | #12 – 15, 45 yards | #115 – 30, 85 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #103 – 35.9% | #123 – 30.9% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #108 – 41.7% (5/12) | #67 – 57.1% (4/7) |
| Red Zone Attempts | #34 – 20 | #96 – 13 |
| Red Zone Offense | #109 – 75% / 55% | #39 – 92% / 69% |
| Long Run Plays | #58 – 24/10, 3/20, 2/30, 1/40 | #119 – 13/10, 3/20, -0- |
| Long Pass Plays | #86 – 34/10, 15/20, 10/30, 3/40 | #93 – 33/10, 10/20, 3/30, 1/40 |
Defense
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Rushing Defense | #3 – 59.8 ypg | #33 – 111.3 ypg |
| Passing Defense | #16 – 151.3 ypg | #32 – 173.0 ypg |
| Total Defense | #4 – 211.0 ypg | #22 – 284.3 ypg |
| Scoring Defense | #2 – 7.8 ppg | #24 – 16.0 ppg |
| First Downs Allowed | #4 – 11.8/game | #9 – 13.3/game |
| Sacks | #38 – 11, 55 yards | #134 – 3, 14 yards |
| Tackles for Loss | #89 – 22, 83 yards | #121 – 17, 52 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #5 – 23.6% | #36 – 32.8% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #2 – 11.1% (1/9) | #104 – 66.7% (2/3) |
| Red Zone Attempts | #2 – 4 | #21 – 10 |
| Red Zone Defense | #21 -75% / 75% | #47 – 80% / 40% |
| Long Run Plays Allowed | #2 – 5/10, 1/20, 1/30, -0- | #14 – 10/10, 4/20, 1/ 30, 1/40 |
| Long Pass Plays Allowed | #10 – 21/10, 6/20, 3/30, 2/40 | #16 – 24/10, 8/20, 3/30, 2/40 |
Other
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Turnovers | #27 – 4 (2F, 2I) | #77 – 6 (0F, 6I) |
| Turnover Margin | #29 – 7:4 +3 | #93 – 4:6 -2 |
| Penalties | #105 – 34, 313 yards | #31 – 21, 180 yards |
*Based on total number of penalties.
Match-up Comparison
Texas Offense |
Florida Defense |
| Rushing Offense – 202.8 ypg | 111.3 ypg – Rushing Defense |
| Passing Offense – 236.0 ypg | 173.0 ypg – Passing Defense |
| Total Offense – 438.8 ypg | 284.3 ypg – Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense – 31.8 ppg | 16.0 ppg – Scoring Defense |
| First Downs – 20.8/game | 13.3/game – First Downs Allowed |
| 3rd Down Offense – 35.9% | 32.8% – 3rd Down Defense |
| 4th Down Offense – 41.7 | 66.7% – 4th Down Defense |
| Red Zone Offense – 75%/55% | 80%/40% – Red Zone Defense |
| LRP – 24/10, 3/20, 2/30. 1/40 | 10/10, 4/20, 1/30, 1/40 – LRP Allowed |
| LPP – 34/10, 15/20, 10/30, 3/40 | 24/10, 8/20, 3/30, 2/40 – LPP Allowed |
Texas Defense |
Florida Offense |
| Rushing Defense – 59.8 ypg | 123.0 ypg – Rushing Offense |
| Passing Defense – 151.3 ypg | 205.3 ypg – Passing Offense |
| Total Defense – 211.0 ypg | 328.3 ypg – Total Offense |
| Scoring Defense – 7.8 ppg | 22.0 ppg – Scoring Offense |
| First Downs Allowed – 11.8/game | 19.5/game – First Downs |
| 3rd Down Defense – 23.6% | 30.9% – 3rd Down Offense |
| 4th Down Defense – 11.1% | 57.1% – 4th Down Offense |
| Red Zone Defense – 75%/75% | 92%/69% – Red Zone Offense |
| LRP Allowed – 5/10, 1/20, 1/30, -0- | 13/10, 3/20, -0- – LRP |
| LPP Allowed – 21/10, 6/20, 3/30, 2/40 | 33/10, 10/20, 3/30, 1/40 – LPP |
BCF Toys
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | |
| Texas | No. 7: 1.02 | No. 22: 0.28 | No. 2: 0.69 | No. 19: 0.07 |
| Florida | No. 38: .33 | No. 74: -0.14 | No. 22: 0.39 | No. 9: 0.08 |
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 7: 0.301 | No. 38: 0.548 | No. 3 0.247 |
| Florida | No. 98: -0.111 | No. 128: 0.316 | No. 40: .427 |
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 5: 2.34 | No. 32: 2.93 | No. 3: 0.59 |
| Florida | No. 93: -0.75 | No. 129: 0.97 | No. 30: 1.72 |
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 16: 2.03 | No. 57: 5.87 | No. 3: 3.84 |
| Florida | No. 109: -1.29 | No. 133: 4.05 | No. 48: 5.34 |
| PVE | OVE | DVE | SVE | |
| Texas | No. 5: 1.15 | No. 43: 0.10 | No. 3: 0.93 | No. 10: 0.14 |
| Florida | No. 99: -0.48 | No. 133: -0.73 | No. 34: 0.31 | No. 79: -0.02 |
In BCF’s F+ ratings (Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings combined with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings), Texas is No. 9 (holding steady). Offensively, Texas is No. 34; defensively, Texas is No. 2. Our Special Teams are No. 57. Florida is No. 38; offense, No. 74; defense, No. 23, and special teams are No. 11.
PFF
Texas’ overall rating is 94.5, placing it at No. 9. Florida’s overall rating is 91.1, placing it at No. 42. Below, the first row is Texas, the second row is Florida. The numbers below are just the PFF ratings. I haven’t figured out how to effectively and efficiently pull all the rankings.
| Offense | Passing | Pass Blocking | Receiving | Run | Run Blocking | |
| T | 77.7 | 80.0 | 74.2 | 73.2 | 78.9 | 64.2 |
| F | 71.1 | 66.6 | 66.7 | 62.6 | 77.4 | 72.0 |
| Defense | Run D | Tackling | Pass Rush | Coverage | |
| T | 92.4 | 92.6 | 78.6 | 87.4 | 90.5 |
| F | 89.9 | 92.3 | 85.7 | 64.9 | 84.0 |
Texas Special Teams: No. 64 – 75.4 rating. Florida is ranked No. 103 with a ST rating of 67.5.
BCF Game Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas Longhorns | Florida Gators | 0.784 | 11.6 | 27.1 | 15.5 | 42.7 |
Official Game Notes from The University:
Week 6 Florida – University of Texas Athletics
TCT Thoughts
My most important thoughts are with Scott Wilson. The most loyal, steadfast, and perseverant Texas Longhorn fan of all time, reports Thursday night were that Scott had suffered a heart attack on his way to Gainesville and was in ICU in Jacksonville. Scott is truly one of the greatest fans, and also a really good guy. Prayers up for Scott Wilson. Get well amigo.
On a less important matter, Texas football.
This is one of those games where I look at all the numbers and think that Texas should crush the Gators – big double-digit win. Then I think about what this game means to Florida, to their fanbase, and especially to Billy Napier, and getting the mighty Texas Longhorns in The Swamp. Texas will win, but this will be a battle.
Almost all the numbers really are strong for the Texas Longhorns. Most of the raw statistics speak for themselves. A few of note.
Texas Rushing Defense, No. 3 (59.3 ypg), Florida Rushing Offense, No. 107 (123 ypg).
Texas Passing Defense, No. 16 (151.3 ypg), Florida Passing Offense, No. 90 (205.3 ypg).
Texas Total Defense No. 4 (211 ypg), Florida Total Offense No. 115 (328.3 ypg).
Texas Scoring Defense No. 2 (7.8 ppg), Florida Scoring Offense No. 99 (22 ppg).
I look at just this, and I am comfortable that Texas will get the win. And, in fact I think that this might be one of more than a couple of games in 2025 that the Texas Defense wins a football game. Although I am a little concerned about the injuries to Muhammed and Black.
The other side of the ball is much more even. The Gator defense will match up well with the Longhorn offense. Arch is going to have to play his best game of the year for Texas to score some points.
The advanced stats I like – BCF – really suggest that Texas is going to shut down the Gator offense, even with DJ Lagway back. Look at the Texas Defense vs. Florida Offense ratings that I highlighted above. Really a big chasm there. Pretty much a No. 130 offense going up against a No. 3 defense. If DJ Lagway was 100% and had a bit of a stronger supporting cast, the Gators might be more of an offensive threat. He is a legitimate dual threat quarterback when healthy, but I just don’t think he stands much of a chance against this Texas defense. Miami has a comparable defense (No. 9 scoring, No. 8 rushing, No. 25 passing), and Florida didn’t do squat. But one thing Napier does run is a lot of two tight end sets (love that), and the linebackers are going to really have to pay attention. Expect big games from Littleton, Taaffe, Hill, and Moore. If PK has his men ready and they play up to potential, I can’t see this Gator offense getting more than 10 points. If they do, it will be because of boneheaded penalties (please, no penalties on third downs; these gators are terrible, don’t gift them first downs) and Texas turnovers on the wrong end of the field. Which brings me to –
Manning and the offense don’t need to have huge game in terms of yards and points, but they must have a clean game on penalties and turnovers and they need to convert third downs and get some sustained drives. Getting Wisner back is big, and I am hoping the Horns can get a balanced attack going early and keep it going. The other part of that balance is the passing game. Arch Manning looked so much better a couple of weeks ago (acknowledge that it was Sam Houston State, but still). The line must give Manning time to make his reads, and the receivers need to work and run (and finish) their routes. I think we are going to so an improved Manning have a very solid game. Arch needs to execute some RPO and use all his skills and brains. A lot of athleticism and intellect there. We really need to avoid long third downs. This offense really needs to stay out of third and long. Saturday would be a good day to flip the narrative on the Longhorns’ third down woes.
Back to the penalties issue, because it is an issue, especially on offense. Overall, Texas is No. 126 penalty yards per game (78.3) and No. 128 in penalties per game (8.5); with only 4 games played (many have played 5), Texas is No. 105 in total penalties (34) and No. 113 in penalty yards (313). Pre-snap penalties and holding penalties on the offensive line have consistently been drive-killers. I am trying to figure out a way to research and analyze that (suggestions welcome) without going back through the play-by-play for every game. But without doing that, by gut tells me that we have been hurt by that more than we should allow. For an offensive line at a university like U.T. Austin, playing smart and disciplined should not be an issue. My most fervent hope for this Texas team (aside from winning and Arch) is that we go from being one of the most penalized teams in the country to one of the least. (Some examples: Penn State has 13 penalties for 90 yards; Notre Dame has 18 for 118; Ohio State has 16 for 140; and Georgia has 16 for 146).
Play calling and decisions. I think if Arch Manning was playing as well as his uncles and grandfather each were at their collegiate peaks, the play calling might not be as much of a concern. That is, I think some of the plays called have just not been executed well, and that may change. At the same time, why should we expect Arch, not halfway through his first year as a starter, to be playing like Archie, Peyton, and Eli in their college prime? I will be interested to see what Sark calls on the first five first downs of the game.
The other aspect of this area is fourth downs. I have noted many times, it is called a “turnover on downs” for a reason. One of Darrell K Royal’s most famous lines was “Three things can happen when you pass, and two of them are bad”. Well, that is analogous to a lot of our “go for it on fourth down” decisions. One of them is good – we get the first down. Depending on the field location, two of the are bad. In the redzone, especially, we pass up points. In the middle of the field, and especially on our side of the fifty, we give up field position. I love Coach Sarkisian as a football coach and I respect him even more as a person. Maybe sometimes on fourth down, think about Step 7.
I think Texas wins. Manning accounts for four touchdowns, two passing (Livingstone and Wingo) and two running. The defense gets a score. If our defense plays as well as they did in Columbus and Lagway has an off game, Texas wins by 20 points. But I am not betting on that. But I am betting (metaphorically and emotionally [heavily], not financially) on a good Texas win.
Texas Longhorns 24, Florida Gators 10
The University of Florida
Florida traces its origins to 1853, and its main precursor was Florida Agricultural College, a Morrill Act land-grant college established in 1884. Until last year, I figured Florida State was the Sunshine State’s aggie school. UF has gotten over it. Very impressive academically, very much on par with The University of Texas. Texas is considered one of the “Public Ivies”; Florida is not.
Academic Rankings |
||
National |
||
Texas |
Florida |
|
| Forbes | 46 | 25 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 30 | 30 |
| Washington Monthly | 98 | 22 |
| WSJ/College Pulse | 41 | 15 |
| Global | ||
| ARWU | 45 | 101-150 |
| QS | 68 (#4 U.S. Publics) | 212 |
| THE | 50 | 130 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 65 | 109 |
Famous alumni include the Honorable Marco Rubio, Joe Scarborough, Emmitt Smith, Faye Dunaway, and Erin Andrews.
Of interest, all the USN&WR rankings of SEC schools:
#18 - Vanderbilt #30 - Florida #30 - Texas #46 - Georgia #51 - Texas A&M #105 - Auburn #109 - Missouri #109 - Tennessee #121 - South Carolina #132 - Oklahoma #152 – Kentucky #171 – Ole Miss #171 - Alabama #179 – LSU #189 - Arkansas #214 – Mississippi State
National Stat of the Week
I was working on the stats for this week, and I was a bit surprised that at this point in the season, there are still 13 teams who have scored on 100% of their redzone opportunities.
Note the Land Thieves and Texas Agricultural & Mechanical. Hat tip to Eric Morris. Nice work by UNT.
Texas has three major statistical performance deficiencies: redzone offense, third down offense, and penalties. We may escape the Swamp underperforming in those areas, but the Red River Shootout (and Athens and some other big games) will not be as easy.
Week Six in the Southeastern Conference
Kentucky (2-2, 0-2) at No. 12 Georgia (3-1, 1-1), 11:00 a.m. on ABC from Sanford Stadium in Athens. Dawgs are going to be mad, and this could be a blowout. Georgia favored by 20.5, over/under is 48.5. Bulldogs to win and cover.
No. 18 Vanderbilt (5-0, 1-0) at No. 10 Alabama (3-1, 1-0), 2:30 p.m. on ABC from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. Diego Pavia and the Commodores beat the No. 1 Crimson Tide in Nashville last year, the first time in 40 years and only the second time since 1960. The Crimson Tide lead the series 60-20-4. Bama favored by 11.5, over/under is 55.5. Tide by 10.
Kent State (1-3) at No. 5 Oklahoma, 3:00 p.m. on the SEC Network from Norman. Kent State has played and lost two Power 4 games – the Sand Aggies (62-14) and Florida State 66-10. I guess that’s one way to fund the program. The Kent State Golden Flashes are dead last in scoring offense, averaging 13.9 points per game. Land Thieves favored by 45.5, over is 53.5. I don’t like betting on the Land Thieves, as it creates a conflict of interest; but if I had to, I would go with the OU to cover.
Mississippi State (4-1, 0-1) at No. 6 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical (4-0, 1-0), 6:30 p.m. on the SEC Network from Kyle Field. The series is tied at 9 wins a piece. Texas Agricultural & Mechanical favored by 16.5, over/under is 55.5. Aggies by 13.
BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas A. and M. | Mississippi State | .773 | 11.1 | 31.6 | 20.5 | 52.1 |
Week Six : Service Academies
Air Force (1-3) at Navy (4-0), 11:00 a.m. on CBS from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis. Midshipmen favored by 12.5 over the Falcons, and the over/under is 50.5. Navy to win and cover.
Army (1-3) at UAB (2-2), 11:00 a.m. on ESPNU. The Black Knights need a conference win, and they should get one in Birmingham. Army favored by 6.5, over/under is 57.5.
Top 25 – Week Six
Friday
West Virginia (2-3) at No. 23 Brigham Young, 9:30 p.m. on ESPN from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo. Mountaineers are not very good this year, at least so far. Cougars favored by 18.5, over/under is 45.5. Seems like a big line. Brigham Young averaging 31.2 points per game on offense and allowing 9.3. West Virginia averaging 29.2 points per game and allowing 26.5. BYU to win, WVU to cover.
Saturday
No. 14 Iowa State (5-0) at Cincinnati (3-1), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN 2 from Nippert Stadium in the Queen City. Cyclones are 1.5 point underdogs, and the over/under is 55.5 Iowa State to win and cover.
Wisconsin (2-2) at No. 20 Michigan (3-1), 11:00 a.m. on FOX from Ann Arbor. The Badgers have wins over Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee State and losses to Alabama and Maryland. Michigan with wins over New Mexico, Central Michigan, and Nebraska, and the 13-24 loss to the Land Thieves. The Wolverines lead the all-time series 52-17-1, although the series is 3-3 since 2016. Michigan is favored by 17.5, over/under is 43.5. Big Blue to win and cover.
No. 22 Illinois (4-1) at Purdue (2-2), 11:00 a.m. on BTN. The Illini rebounded quite well after the Hoosier thrashing, beating Southern Cal 34-32. They should be 5-1 after they beat the Boilermakers. Illinois favored by 9.5, over/under is 55.5. Illinois to win and cover. And Go Cubs Go.
No. 7 Penn State (3-1) at UCLA (0-4), 2:30 p.m. on the affiliates of the Columbia Broadcasting System, from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. I will be interested to see if the Nittany Lions fans outnumber the Bruins fans. Pathetic fanbase. PSU favored by 24.5, over/under is 49.5. Penn State to win and cover.
Boise State (3-1) at No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-2), 2:30 p.m. on NBC. CJ Carr lit up the Hogs in Fayetteville for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, and Carr and Love should torch the Broncos on Saturday. Notre Dame favored by 20.5, over/under is 64.5. Irish to win and cover.
No. 24 Virginia Cavaliers (4-1) at Louisville (4-0), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN2. How ‘bout those Hoos! Hope the ranking is not short-lived. Cardinals favored by 6.5, over/under is 61.5. Cavaliers to cover.
No. 11 Texas Tech (4-0) at Houston (4-0), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN from John M. O’Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium. Sand Aggies favored by 11.5, over/under is 52.5.
BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Sand Aggies | Houston | .765 | 10.7 | 27.4 | 16.7 | 44.1 |
Minnesota (3-1) at No. 1 The Ohio State University (5-0), 6:30 p.m. on NBC. The Golden Gophers are not really very good. Buckeyes favored by 23.5, over/under is 42.5. Ohio State to win.
No. 3 Miami (FL) (4-0) at No. 18 Florida State (3-1), 6:30 p.m. on ABC from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. Pretty sure most folks were figuring this would be a top-10 match-up and the game of the day. The Wahoos thought otherwise. Hurricanes favored by 4.5, over/under is 54.5. Seminoles with the upset.
Other Games of Interest – Week Six
While I may not watch them, I always find the games of our season opponents of interest. Sam Houston State went to Las Cruces and beat soundly by the New Mexican Aggies, 37-10.
Friday
New Mexico (3-1) at San Jose State (11-3), 9:00 p.m. on FS1. Something to watch after Matt’s El Rancho. Spartans are actually favored by 2.5, and the over/under is 57.5.
Saturday
Clemson (1-3) at North Carolina (2-2), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN from Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. Big games for Dabo and Bill. Tigers favored by 14.5, over/under is 46.5. Clemson to win, Tarheels to cover.
UTSA (2-2) at Temple, 12:00 noon on ESPN+. The first American Athletic Conference game for both teams. Rough start for the Roadrunners, but they have plenty to play for. UTSA favored by 6.5, over/under is 58.5. Birds Up! 🤙
Oklahoma State (1-3) at Arizona (3-1), 2:00 p.m. on TNT/truTV. Interim Okie A&M head coach Doug Meacham is 0-1 after last Saturday’s loss to Baylor. On Sunday, OSU fired Todd Grantham, the defensive coordinator (see below). Wildcats favored by 20.5, over/under is 55.5. Arizona to win and cover.
Syracuse (3-2) at Southern Methodist (2-2), 2:30 p.m. on the ACC Network from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park. Mustangs are playing their first ACC game of the season, and I think the Ponies get back on track. Southern Methodist favored by 17.5, over/under is 58.5. Mustangs to win and cover.
Miami (Ohio) (1-3) at Northern Illinois (1-3), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN+ from Huskie Stadium in DeKalb. Redhawks need a win to get MAC play started right, and they are favored by 4.5. Over/under is 39.5.
Michigan State (3-1) at Nebraska (3-1), 3:00 p.m. on FS1 from Lincoln. Cornhuskers favored by 11.5, over/under is 50.5. Nebraska to win and cover. GBR.
Texas State (3-1) at Arkansas State (1-4), 3:00 p.m. on ESPNU. Bobcats favored by 13.5, over/under is 63.5.
Florida Atlantic (1-3) at Rice (3-2), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+. Owls favored by 4.5, over/under is 54.5.
Colorado (2-3) at Texas Christian (3-1), 6:30 p.m. on FOX from Amon G. Carter Stadium. Looking forward to catching some of this one. Frogs favored by 13.5, over/under is 58.5. Texas Christian to win and cover. Good luck Ed!
Tulsa (2-3) at Memphis (5-0), 7:00 p.m. on ESPNU, Tigers favored by 20.5. That’s a big line for the Tigers. Memphis wins, Tulsa covers.
Duke (3-2) at California (4-1), 9:30 p.m. on ESPN from Berkeley. A very good late night game to watch. Blue Devils favored by 2.5 over the Golden Bears, over/under is 55.5/
The UTRGV Vaqueros (4-1) host Houston Christian at Vackar Stadium in in Edinburg. 7:00 p.m. on ESPN+. The Vaqueros are ranked No. 1 in FCS with 574.6 yards per game, No. 1 in offensive touchdowns with 33, and No. 1 in yards per play with 8.73, No. 1 in yards with 2,873, and No. 2 in points per game with 53. Not bad for a rookie season so far. Schedule gets tough after this weekend, with No. 25 Lamar, No. 20 Incarnate Word, and Stephen F. Austin ahead. Game notes:
UTRGV Football Game Notes 10 4 25 (PDF) – UTRGV Athletics
I found this interesting game projection information from Bill Connelly, where he uses his SP+ analytics to predict game outcomes. Texas 26-17, if you are wondering and don’t like spreadsheets. 2025 SP+ – Google Sheets
Washington & Lee University
The Generals lost their fourth game in a row to Randolph-Macon College. The Yellow Jackets led from the first quarter on, and they shut down the normally potent W&L rushing attack. Anthony Crawford carried 12 times for 82 yards and scored the lone Generals’ touchdown. Ryan Clemens had 2 rushes for 6 yards, no one else gained more than a single yard. Brutal. 136 yards of offense, while the Yellow Jackets picked up 325 yards on their way to the 24-6 win.
This week is not any easier, as W&L is on the road again, this time to Farmville to play No. 21/24 Hampden-Sydney. 1:00 p.m., Prince Edward County time. The series is all even at 40-40-2. The Tigers are 4-0, with solid wins over Delaware Valley (38-9), Washington & Jefferson (38-31), Shenandoah (42-7), and Guilford (69-14). W&L beat Guilford 35-7. Tigers have the No. 8 scoring offense in DIII, and the No. 35 scoring defense. The Blue and White are No. 158 and No. 118, respectively. Rushing offense, Tigers are No. 17 and W&L is No. 21. Mr. Mica, the usual bet.
Stream it live here ODAC
A belated W&L JHT alumni post. Two nice young ladies who just graduated from Washington & Lee were at Juan Heisman Tailgate a couple of weeks ago. I think we now have pictures of W&L grads spanning half a century. Whitney McCormick and Lizzie Steilberg, Washington & Lee University Class of 2025.
Texas Volleyball
The No. 2 Longhorns are 10-0, with 8 wins over ranked opponents. Last Friday night, the Horns swept No. 21 Missouri at Gregory. This past Wednesday night, Texas traveled to Athens, Georgia, and the Longhorns swept the Bulldogs. This Sunday, the Horns will be in Starkville for a game with the Bulldogs. 2:00 p.m. on SEC Network +.
The word “iconic” gets thrown around a lot. Not quite a cliché in my opinion but used pretty heavily. Most of the time, at least more than 50%, I think it is fairly used. The word comes from the Greek “eikṓn” or “εἰκών”. [For those trying to remember the Greek alphabet from pledge ship, that is epsilon iota kappa omega nu”.] An AI program gives us this:
“Iconic” describes something widely known, representative, and impressive, often to the point of being a symbol of a particular era, culture, or idea. It implies significant recognition and cultural importance, distinguishing the subject as a superlative or memorable example in its field. While originally tied to religious imagery, the term now broadly applies to anything widely celebrated for its excellence or cultural significance.
The Greek word meant image or likeness (no, I am not going there). In Genesis, humanity was created in the eikōn of God – in His image. In Colossians 1:15, “The Son is the image [eikōn] of the invisible God, the firstborn over all creation.” As Christianity developed and spread, the word came to be used a little differently in religious context, and by the 19th century, it generally was used to refer to a sacred image used in worship.
Like a lot of good words, it has become diluted. Now, we use it to describe almost anything popular or famous, but it is still a good word, as long as we don’t also let those secular things we consider iconic become something that is worshiped. However, the preservation of icons is important for cultures and institutions.
If there is any “thing” or image or building associated with The University of Texas that is iconic, it is the Tower. It is the symbol of the University, as an image and as a landmark. We hear the bells from the Kniker Carillon; we see the Tower lit for important events. We walk in the Tower (and Main), and we feel our history. It is, in and of itself, an extraordinary building.
Great article here (thanks Jim Nicar):
They Don’t Make Them Like This Anymore – UT Austin News – The University of Texas at Austin
The University has undertaken a $70 million renovation of The Tower, funded in part by $44 million from the Board of Regents ($26 PUF, $18 AUF). Most of the rest is coming from us. Several great pages on the Tower website, including the link to donate:
Cool Stuff
Some of the cool stuff of the last few days.
Eli Manning came to the Forty Acres. Great earned media for The University and the Longhorns.
Some clips:
The full video (a little over 10 minutes)
Coach Sarkisian on the pressure on college quarterbacks and our players generally. Kind of what I was saying about the pressures on Arch in the prior edition. A couple of posts from Cory Mose below.
https://x.com/Cory_Mose/status/1972785150208438445
https://x.com/Cory_Mose/status/1972782986014892349
The Buffalo Bills vs. the Dallas Texans in the Cotton Bowl, September 30, 1962. Pro football has changed a bit.
https://x.com/KevG163/status/1973200180649295895
Health Alliance for Austin Musicians
HAAM is celebrating its 20th anniversary this year. Two weeks ago we had a fantastic HAAM Day in Austin. We are close to our goal but are still raising funds before we close the books on HAAM Day 2025. Your support would be very much appreciated. Help HAAM keep Austin music alive and well.
Tim Taylor HAAM Day 2025 Fundraising Page.
My special thanks to the stalwart friends who already donated generously. Big thank you to Wilson Albright, Vicki Zamorski, Debbie & John Fincher, Jay Doyle, Mike Wadsworth, Karen Sonleitner, Kerry Hall, Brenda Hindsman, and Don Cox!
The Polls
AP Top 25 & the Coaches:
ESPN’s FPI
Florida is No. 33.
2025 College Football Power Index – ESPN
Bill Connelly’s SP+
SP+ is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”
Florida is ranked No. 47.
Some big – and interesting – changes.
Ohio State, Indiana, Ole Miss, Miami (FL), Oregon, Land Thieves, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Michigan. Texas is down to No. 21. Florida is No. 52.
PFF
PFF has The Ohio State University No. 1 this week, followed by Oregon, Miami (FL), Ole Miss, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, Land Thieves, Hoosiers, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana State. The University of Texas Longhorns at 11, Vanderbilt 14.
Florida is ranked No. 38.
Kelley Ford Ratings
SEC Power Rankings. Kirk Bohls, Houston Chronicle; Cedric Golden, Austin American-Statesman; Reid Laymance, Houston Chronicle; Tony Catalina, Austin American-Statesman; Kevin Sherrington, Dallas Morning News. I find it interesting that Alabama and Texas Agricultural & Mechanical each got 2 first place votes in this. I am not being petty about the aggies, but Alabama went into Athens and kicked Georgia’s butt, while the aggies weren’t exactly lighting it up against Auburn. I agree with their No. 2 ranking, however.
Week Five in the Southeastern Conference
What a week it was.
No. 22 Notre Dame went into Fayetteville, and I was expecting a decent game from the pigs. But the Fighting Irish put an old-fashioned whipping on Arkansas, 56-13. Notre Dame with 641 yards of offense. Arkansas fired head coach Sam Pittman on Sunday. And, not a joke, they hired Bobby Petrino as the interim. “Notre Dame to win and cover.” ✔️
No. 17 Alabama 24, No. 5 Georgia 21. What a great football game. The Crimson Tide get a tough road win despite giving up 227 yards rushing. Bulldogs 6 penalties for 68 yards, Bama just 4 for 16. Went with my gut and picked Bama. ✔️
Ole Miss played good football and beat Louisiana State 24-19. Back-up Rebel quarterback threw for 314 yards and a score and ran for 74 yards and a TD. The Tigers were held to 57 yards rushing. “Rebs win by 4.” I was closer than Vegas and BCF. ✔️ Hotty Toddy!
Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 16, Auburn 10. Tigers rushed for just 52 yards (and Jackson Arnold was 18/33 for 125 yards; no bueno. Not a stellar performance from Marcel Reed either. Both quarterbacks had a QBR of 35.1. Bless their hearts. “Texas Agricultural & Mechanical favored by 6.5. Aggies by 8.” BCF had Aggies by 6.6. Still pretty good. I give myself a B+. ✔️
Tennessee 41. Mississippi State 34. In overtime. A lot of cowbell. Bulldogs are vastly improved over last year. “Tennessee favored by 7.5. Mississippi State to cover.” ✔️
No. 18 Vanderbilt didst beateth the Utah State Aggies soundly, 55-35. “Dores favored by 23.5. Vanderbilt to win, Mormon Aggies to cover.” ✔️
Kentucky 13, South Carolina 35. “Gamecocks favored by 5.5. I think South Carolina gets back on track – Cocks to win and cover.” ✔️
Missouri 42, Massachusetts 6. No pick.
Week Five: Service Academies
Thursday night, Army battled East Carolina in Greenville, but futilely. Pirates 28 to 6 over the Black Knights, covering 4.5.
Navy 24, Rice 13. “Midshipmen favored by 14.5. Navy to win and cover.” X
Hawaii 44, Air Force 35. Tough year thus far for the Falcons.
Top 25 – Week Five
Virginia Cavaliers 46, No. 8 Florida State 38, in double overtime. A really good football game. A really great win for UVA. Happy for all my Wahoo family and friends. “The line is FSU by 6.5. My heart is with the Hoos, but I fear Florida State will win. UVA to cover!” ✔️
No. 24 Texas Christian 24, Arizona State 27. I said and always say, weird things happen in the desert, but I really did think the Frogs would get this one. Hoover’s 2 interceptions, a fumble, and 8 penalties for 72 yards doomed the Horny Toads. Can’t do that, especially on the road.
No. 16 Georgia Tech 30, Wake Forest 29, in overtime. The Yellow Jackets got the ball first in OT and scored a touchdown and kicked the PAT. Demon Deacons scored too, but went for two and failed. Wake played to win, and as a result the Rambling Wreck escaped Winston-Salem with a W. I had picked GT to win and cover. Not close (line was 13.5).
No. 21 Southern Cal 32, No. 23 Illinois 34. I thought the line was low at Trojans minus 6.5. Lincoln Riley proved me wrong!
No. 6 Oregon 30, No. 3 Penn State 24, double overtime. One whale of a college football game, at least starting in the second half. “Oregon to win.” ✔️
No. 11 Indiana 20, Iowa 15.
Arizona 14, No. 14 Iowa State 39. Iowa State was favored by 5.5. “Cyclones to win and cover.” ✔️
No. 25 Brigham Young 24, Colorado 21. The Bombay Sapphire Negronis were very good. So is Brigham Young.
Other Games of Interest – Week Five
Friday
Houston 27, Oregon State 24. Cougars undefeated.
South Alabama 22, North Texas 36. Another big win for the Elf & his Mean Green. “UNT favored by 12.5. North Texas to win and cover.” ✔️
California Berkeley 28, Boston College 24. Big conference road win for the Golden Bears.
Baylor 45, Oklahoma State 27. Well, not much changed for the Pokes with the replacement of Mike Gundy. Interim HC Doug Meacham and the Cowboys got whipped at home by Baylor. Sawyer Robertson was 24/35 for 393 yards and 4 TDs, while the Bears rushed 219 yards. 612 yards of offense. DC Todd Grantham got fired on Sunday. Bears cover.
Lindenwood 0. Miami 38. Redhawks Win!
San José State 29, The Leland Stanford Junior University Cardinal 30. Stanford with the come from behind win to avoid a second consecutive embarrassing loss to the Spartans.
Louisiana Tech 30, UTEP 11. Not close.
The UTRGV Vaqueros fall to the Southeastern Louisiana Lions, 31-45. Not bad in your first ever conference road game. Especially on a Solid Gold Saturday at Strawberry Stadium.
Chicago Cubs
I thought in mid-summer that in August I would write a little about my beloved Cubs in one of the first newsletters. But Chicago’s five game lead at the All-Star Break quickly disappeared as the Milwaukee Brewers went on a bender. By mid/late August, the Cubs were 6 or 7 games back, and winning the N.L. Central looked bleak. By mid-September, it was definitely all about staying in the Wild Card race and trying to get that home field advantage for the Wild Card Series. The Cubs managed to do that, and the San Diego Padres were at Wrigley Field this week. Playoff baseball is different. Being in the Friendly Confines was huge. Chicago took Game 1, got shutout in Game 2, and came back Thursday afternoon to win the series and advance. There are a bunch of great players on this team. Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suziki, Kyle Tucker, but my favorite is Pete Crow-Armstrong. An electric player. 2025 was PCA’s first full season. Here is what the kid did in 157 games:
- 31 Homeruns
- 37 doubles
- 35 stolen bases
- 95 RBI
The first player in the history of the Cubs (founded 1870) to have 30 homers and 30 stolen bases. 5.3 WAR.
I was fortunate to get to Chicago for a couple of games in August. Wrigley is a magical place. Singing the Eyes of Texas after a Longhorns is my favorite, but singing Go Cubs Go at Wrigley Field is number 2.
Jim Nicar
1941: U.T. Austin footballer Jack “Jackrabbit” Crain entertains Vivienne Johnson (left) and Marilyn Irwin at Littlefield Fountain. After college, Crain was an officer in the U.S. Navy during World War II, then served three terms in the Texas Legislature.
From Jim’s September 30, 2025 post on X:
Music
How about some Chicago Blues. Go Cubs!
Damn Right, I’ve Got the Blues, Buddy Guy.
Mr. Guy played a few sets at Antone’s over the years. (NSFW language)
Rollin’ & Tumblin, Muddy Waters.
Boom Boom, John Lee Hooker, scene from The Blues Brother
Soul Fixin’ Man, Luther Allison. Love this one.
All Your Love (I Miss Loving), Otis Rush.
Picture of the Week
JType. This photo is from his October 1, 2025 post on Instagram.
On X: @tctayloratx
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Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371