San José State Spartans vs. No. 7 Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns home opener is an 11:00 a.m. kickoff at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium Saturday morning. The game will be broadcast on ABC. Joe Tessitore on the call and Jesse Palmer providing analysis (and advice on dating, marriage, and furniture), and Katie George will be reporting from the sidelines. The game can be heard around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns Craig Way, joined by Roger Wallace in the booth and by Will Matthews on the sidelines. Listen in Austin on the Flagship, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM. In the Dallas on KRLD 1080. In Tyler on KTBB 600 AM and 92.1 FM. And in San Angelo with Mr. McLaughlin on KKSA 1260 AM. SiriusXM Channel 82. Dr. Rubén Pizarro-Silva and Jesus Mendoza with the call in Spanish on certain Longhorn Radio Network affiliates and streaming on the Texas Longhorn App (I think).
Texas is favored by 36.5, and the over/under is 52.5. Texas to win and cover, and I am betting the over.
Y’all ready?
Texas Longhorns 7, Ohio State Buckeyes 14
A tough and, for me, surprising loss in Columbus. And not just surprising to me for the single reason you assume. Yes, I was surprised how challenged Arch Manning was in the first half. But I was very happily surprised how really good our defense played. The expectations for Manning and the team were absurdly high (including mine), and thus the post-loss reactions have been off the chart. Unnecessarily so, as I reflect four and five days later. My thoughts on the game below.
First Weekend of College Football
One of my least favorite overused cliches is “did not disappoint”. An unnecessary phrase at a couple of levels. Does that mean it did appoint? No. Does that mean that your expectation of your vacation or your expensive dinner or the highly anticipated movie was just that it not be disappointing? That’s a low bar. Also, the Oxford comma. Always.
The first weekend of college football in 2025 was outstanding! It was awesome. College football is the most entertaining spectator sport in America. The Texas loss aside, it was a great weekend to be a football fan. It was only the second time that two top-5 teams lost in Week One, and the first time ever that four top-10 teams lost. After Week One, only 3 teams in the AP Top 25 are in the same rank as the preseason poll.
The Auburn-Baylor game was fun football, and Baylor has a heckuva quarterback in Sawyer Robertson (419 yards and 3 touchdowns), while former Sooner, Denton Guyer’s Jackson Arnold led the Tigers to victory on the Brazos. The Florida State win over the No. 8 Crimson Tide was a surprise – not only because the Seminoles looked so good in dominating Alabama, but also because Alabama looked so inadequate. I think I heard Chris Fowler or Kirk Herbstreit say that they didn’t even give Bama a vote in the Top 25 this week. The best game of the weekend was probably No. 9 Louisiana State at No. 4 Clemson, as the Bayou Bengals finally won an opening game under Brian Kelly in a match-up of two CFP teams and Heisman candidates. The Catholics vs. Convicts rematch in the Hard Rock was a helluva battle, as No. 6 Notre Dame rallied with 17 in the fourth quarter but came up short against No. 10 Miami, 24-27.
As you know, one of my favorite advanced analytic sites is BCF Toys, Brian Fremeau’s analytical insights into each team and each game. Last week, he had projections on 44 games. He was right on 36 of them.
And the BEST thing from the first weekend of the greatest sport on earth? Kirk Herbstreit’s new pup Peter, in the booth and on the call at the end of Texas Christian’s blowout win over North Carolina
College Football This Weekend
After a spectacular opening weekend, the slate for Week 2 is pretty dismal. There is one top 25 matchup – No. 15 Michigan at the No. 18 Land Thieves in Norman. Although Louisiana Monroe at No. 21 Alabama has some intrigue … My look at the SEC, Top 25, and Games of Interest below.
Austin Horns Fan Dispatch
A couple of important items. First, I know I had some pretty stupid mistakes in the last edition. I take pride in my writing, and I am pretty ticked at myself. Early season miscues. Also, I have been having some issues with emails getting through. If you don’t get my Friday morning email, please let me know.
Second, I really do appreciate the emails saying I should charge for this. I have zero interest in monetizing my newsletter. However, I do ask that you consider supporting the charities that I include each week at the end of the email. The last couple of weeks have been about supporting those impacted by the devastating floods on July 4th. This week, I am including the Asks here. Thanks.
The July 4th Floods
Three donations worthy of your consideration.
The first is the Heaven’s 27 Fund. This is a combined donor-advised fund at the San Antonio Area Foundation which brings together all of the funds established for the 27 girls who lost their lives at Camp Mystic.
Heaven’s 27 Fund – San Antonio Area Foundation
Second, the Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country, and specifically the Kerr County Flood Relief Fund.
The Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country
Third, Texas Search and Rescue. TEXSAR.
Donate – Texas Search and Rescue
Hat tip to all of the Texas college football teams who wore the helmet sticker (above), including the UTRGV Vaqueros in their first ever game.
To paraphrase what I heard some famous person say a few weeks ago, if all Americans loved other Americans as much as Texans love their fellow Texans, America would be a better place and our country’s fate and future would be safe and secure.
San José State Spartans vs. No. 7 Texas Longhorns
With only one game for our sample size, a look at San José State’s first game is a quick way to get to know some of the Spartans. San José State was actually favored to beat the Central Michigan Chippewas last week but fell 14-16.
Spartan quarterback Walter Eget (No. 5, 6-3, 223 lbs RS Senior) was 24/43 for 308 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions; minus 7 rushing.
Denny Scudero (No. 10, 5-9, 174 lbs, RS Sophomore WR) had 9 catches for 189 yards and a score. Leland Smith (No. 1, 6-4, 215 lbs, junior WR from Strake Jesuit in Houston) had 2 catches for 50 yards and a TD. Jackson Canaan (No. 85, 6-2, 227 lbs RS Senior TE) had 5 catches for 33 yards.
Floyd Chalk IV (No. 3, 5-7, 192 lbs Senior) had 11 carries for 44 yards; Tama Amisone (No. 8, 5-11, 184 lbs Freshman) had 5 runs for 23 yards; and Lamar Radcliffe (No. 2, 6-1, 220 lbs Sophomore) had 15 yards on 7 attempts.
On defense, the Spartans have a pretty good linebacker in Jordan Pollard (No. 1, 6-1, 202 lbs, Senior); Pollard had 15 tackles (6 solo) against the Chippewas. Jalen Apalit-Williams (No. 7, 6-1 193 lbs RS Senior DB) had 8 tackles (5 solo). Noah McNeal-Franklin (No. 9, 6 foot, 210 lbs RS Senor linebacker) had 8 tackles (4 solo). Mata Hola (No. 94, 6-2, 265 lbs RS Senior DL) had 5 tackles.
Some other names of note: Sir Autry and Sirr Bible. Also, Gafa Faga, Kamaehu Kopa-Kaawalauole, Uluakinofo Taliauli, and David Tuihalangingie. Good luck Craig!
The Spartans are coached by Ken Niumatalolo, the great coach at Navy for 15 years (most wins all time, 9 out of 10 over Army [sorry Dan], 10 bowl games, and the Midshipmen’s first final top 25 ranking in six decades). He’s a good football coach.
Last season, SJSU was 7-6 overall, 3-4 in the Mountain West, with wins over Sacramento State, Air Force, Kennesaw state, Nevada, Wyoming, Oregon State (!), and Stanford (!). Losses to Washington State (52-54 in double OT), Colorado State, Fresno State, Boise State, and UNLV. The Spartans lost to South Florida in the Hawaii Bowl – 39-41 in five overtimes.
The official Game Notes from The University:
Week 2 SJSU – University of Texas Athletics
ESPN:
BCF Toys
I decided to get this going early. Good analytics, the headings are hyperlinked if you want to learn more. Most, if not all, of the rankings/ratings for Texas are well below what they were last year. Understandable. Will be interesting to look at this and compare it where we are going into the off-week at the end of September.
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | |
| Texas | No. 5: 1.08 | No. 13: 0.29 | No. 2: 0.71 | No. 16: 0.02 |
| San José State | No. 97: -0.38 | No. 99: -0.27 | No. 76: 0.00 | No. 133: -0.12 |
The offensive ranking at No. 13 may surprise you, but I think it’s another indicator that last week wasn’t the titanic disaster people seem to think it was. On defense, we are No. 2, and Ohio State is No. 1 with a DFEI of 0.76.
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 27: 0.153 | No. 43: 0.457 | No. 15: 0.304 |
| San José State | No. 55: -.058 | No. 57: 0.400 | No. 56: 0.458 |
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 62: -0.86 | No. 81: 0.70 | No. 38: 1.56 |
| San José State | No. 50: -0.29 | No. 70: 1.77 | No. 35: 1.45 |
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 45: 0.16 | No. 61: 4.64 | No. 28: 4.48 |
| San José State | No. 48: 0.00 | No. 50: 5.23 | No. 46: 5.23 |
Possession Efficiency. Possession Efficiency (PVE) is unadjusted scoring value calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions (NP) in FBS vs. FBS games.
| PVE | OVE | DVE | SVE | |
| Texas | No. 60: -0.37 | No. 83: -0.76 | No. 49: 0.26 | No. 41: 0.03 |
| San José State | No. 49: -.09 | No. 66: -0.49 | No. 33: 0.42 | No. 70: -0.10 |
In BCF’s F+ ratings (Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings combined with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings), Texas is No. 6. Offensively, Texas is No. 26; defensively, Texas is No. 2.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas | San José State | .990 | 31.9 | 38.8 | 6.8 | 45.9 |
TCT Thoughts
I don’t have a lot of things to say about this game. A Texas win is assumed – and if that assumption is wrong, then, well, we will be talking and writing about a much different season than we were 2 weeks ago. But, I am right, and Texas is going to win.
The questions going into this game are about Texas’ resiliency and how the players and the units respond. Thus:
- How many points will Texas score, and how many of those will be by the defense or special teams?
- How many points can the Spartans score?
- Arch Manning’s performance – completion percentage, yards passing, yards running?
- Texas defense – yards passing allowed and SJSU completion percentage, yards rushing allowed, SJSU third down conversions.
- Penalties
- Turnovers – Texas staying clean and getting into positive margin asap.
What we need to see is for Texas to dominate in all of these categories and more, for Arch to look good from the first snap until the victory formation, and for the Horns to play clean football – no stupid penalties and no time-critical penalties.
With that in mind, my thoughts.
Texas will get into a run/pass balance early, as the run game should be easily established. Central Michigan rushed for 247 yards, and the Chippewas were 1 yard shy of having two 100 yard rushers. But Texas needs to be able to run the ball successfully on the whole field. The Chippewas didn’t throw the ball much (only 13 pass attempts) but I highly doubt that was because of complex disguised coverage system like Patricia and Ohio State ran against Arch and the Horns. I think Arch will have a solid game – 65% or so completion, 275 yards, 2-4 touchdowns. Manning will also have some yards on the ground – probably in the 40-50 range, unless he breaks a big one (entirely possible). I am excited to see more of Parker Livingstone and for Moore to get some more opportunities. And I really, really want to see the tight ends more involved. Hoping Wingo gets the ball both as a receiver and in one of those nice sweeps Sark designs. I think I want to see more RPO, and I know I want to see Arch execute the RPO successfully. The Texas ground attack should be solid and balanced, with Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter getting most the carries, but hope to see Clark and Gibson too. I am going to guess about 230 yards rushing as a team.
I hope we see more of the Sarkisian playbook. But most of all, above all else on offense, I hope Texas gets the ball in the endzone every single time we get in the redzone. That is important.
Defensively, I can’t wait to be able to follow and watch Graceson Littleton. As Kathy pointed out, I didn’t even mention him in my preseason edition. So: No. 29 Littleton is a six foot, 180 pound true freshman cornerback from Tampa, Florida. A top 10 cornerback by On3 and 247Sports. The kid was the highest graded freshman cornerback in the country after Week 1. Look at this: https://x.com/NashTalksTexas/status/1961836210831130650
The defense looked outstanding against Ohio State, so they should be able to have a shutdown, if not shutout, performance against San José State. The one caveat is that, as noted above, the Spartan quarterback Walker Eget can sling the ball. All the more reason for Colin Simmons and Ethan Burke and Vacek to have big days. How about 4 sacks on Saturday?
Saturday will be a day to celebrate our return to Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium, to cheer our Longhorns, and to see if Sark and the staff had a productive coaching week.
Longhorns 54, Spartans 10
Photo – Texas Athletics
Longhorns 7, Buckeyes 14
I was 80% sure Texas was going to win that game. 60% of that was my belief in this defense (I was right), and 40% was Sark, Arch, & the Offense (I was wrong).
The Texas offense posted 336 yards – 170 yards passing, and a very respectable 166 yards rushing (and averaged 4.5 ypc) against a fantastic Ohio State defense as well prepared as you will ever see. Last year’s Buckeye team allowed 87.63 yards per game and 2.65 ypc. With that, I am feeling damn good about the line and our rushing game, even if that was the first game of the year. Out of the 67 offensive plays Texas ran, only one resulted in lost yardage, and that was the 1-yard sack in the second quarter; albeit a big one – that was on third and 10 from the Texas 47, and a conversion there would have been huge to answer Ohio State’s touchdown.
Texas held the Buckeyes to just 203 yards. Per ESPN’s Peter Burns, that is the fewest yards Ohio State has posted in a regular season game since 2015. That is pretty good. 126 yards passing (a freshman in his first start, so not a great yardstick), but just 89 yards rushing. Ohio State averaged 166.4 yards per game last year, although in the Cotton Bowl Semifinal game, we held them to 82 yards.
As mentioned above, perhaps the best thing was seeing Graceson Littleton’s performance. Some said (mainly people from Ohio, I suppose) that Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football. He got 6 catches but managed just 43 yards. I will take that.
Another positive: Texas didn’t allow Ohio State to have a single explosive running play. In fact, no runs over 10 yards. After Week 1, the Buckeyes are tied, DFL at No. 133, for long rushing plays. Their only explosive passing play was the 40 yard strike to Carnell Tate (probably Texas’ single worst play on defense last Saturday).
Ohio State only had two decent offensive drives:
The 13 play, 80-yard touchdown drive on their third possession, which was an 8:01 minute drive. That was very good. It was also greatly aided by the 15-yard facemask penalty on Simmons after Littleton had broken up the third down pass to Innes (which if caught would have been first and 10 at the Texas 19, at least). That one penalty is the prime example of stupid penalties that are time-critical and arguably game changing. Instead of having to go for it on 4th and 4 at the Texas 44, Ohio State was first and 10 at the Texas 29. One cannot overstate how big that was. Like I said and say too often, close games can be decided by one or two mistakes (almost always a penalty or turnover).
Their 68-yard touchdown drive at the start of the fourth quarter, which ended with that 40 yard touchdown pass from Sayin to Tate.
Other than those two drives, Ohio State was: 9 yards, 17 yards, 21 yards, 6 yards, 7 yards, 11 yards, and 5 yards.
Give the Texas Defense and PK and Akina and the staff an A+.
The Texas offense does not grade out so well. Honestly, but for the fourth quarter, a C minus would be fair.
Texas longest drive of the first half was their first possession, 33 yards, which ended with a turnover (emphasize turnover) on downs at the OSU 42. As we would soon learn last Saturday, we have a great punter. Texas punts instead of going for it, and OSU is probably starting their first possession inside their 10 yard line instead of midfield.
The rest of the first half was miserable: 3 plays, 4 yards, punt; 3 plays, 3 yards, punt; 8 plays, 21 yards, punt; 3 plays, 8 yards, punt. If my math is right, that’s 69 yards of offense in two quarters of play. Not Sarkisian football, and certainly Arch’s jitters or whatever played a big role.
Coming out of the half down 7 to nothing with Ohio State getting the ball to start the third, the Texas defense needed to step up. And they did, forcing a 3 and out after the Buckeyes managed just 6 yards. Texas got the ball with a chance to change the tone of the game. It looked like we would. Quintrevion with some good runs, Arch with a 15 yard run for a first down into OSU territory. Arch was 4-4 passing (a monumental improvement from the first half). Then, Texas first and goal at the 9 yard line, and that redzone gremlin was back. I probably read more about redzone issues than anything else this week. I am analyzed out. Sark, and the offense, have to fix this.
Despite that, Texas D forced another 3 and out, and Texas got the ball at the 50 yard line. Great field position, and an opportunity to quickly make amends. Instead, regression. First play is a holding penalty, and 2 plays later Manning throws poor decision pass that is picked off.
That turnover led to points, as they so often do – that was Ohio State’s only other good drive – the 28 yards plus Tate’s 40 yard catch.
Texas was down 14-0, but with just over 13 minutes to play, the Longhorns had plenty of time.
Once again, a respectable drive with some good Quintrevion runs and a Wingo dash and, Thank God, a 14 yard pass to tight end Jack Endries, which gave us first and 10 at the OSU 16.
Redzone and a chance. But Texas can’t get a first down, and that was pretty much ballgame (barring a turnover or two).
Summary
We had two great drives, just like the Buckeyes. They got touchdowns, we got nothing.
The Texas penalty which extended a Buckeye drive led to an Ohio State touchdown. The only Texas turnover led to an Ohio State touchdown.
The Texas run games looks good, but need to be able to run the ball better in the redzone.
We have a great punter – don’t be afraid to use him.
Highlights
From FOX
Arch Manning
All of the sources of our sports news talked about Arch Manning as much this week as they did the week before the game, if not more. My goodness, the hand wringing was extraordinary.
First, a few of the folks who spent time to break it down.
Emmanuel Acho:
https://x.com/EmmanuelAcho/status/1962220028583100464
Chase Daniel, the former Missouri quarterback, with 21 minutes of tape.
https://x.com/ChaseDaniel/status/1962708214329569716
My friend Justin Nash (we sit together at Texas baseball games – that’s a lot of hours and a lot of time to talk Texas sports), who has really developed into an excellent sabremetrician and data aggregator, has this on Texas quarterbacks on the road in the first 3 starts of their careers against a Power 5 opponent:
Justin’s analysis of Arch’s catchable throws and throws on target by quarter
Quarter – Catchable / On Target (Attempts)
1st – 60.0% / 60.0% (5)
2nd – 60.0% / 40.0% (5)
3rd – 80.0% / 60.0% (5)
4th – 86.7% / 66.7% (15)
On-Target: number of times a QBs throw hits the receiver in-stride
If you aren’t sure, here is every pass by Arch Manning in the game, courtesy of Justin:
https://x.com/NashTalksTexas/status/1961897076016468192
David Shepard: “Arch Manning struggled for most of this game, BUT he also had over 130 yards passing in the 4th quarter alone and was the best player on the field. Texas would have won if not for some key drops. Credit to Matt Patricia & Ohio State for a great game plan, but Texas will be fine!”
https://x.com/SheponAir/status/1961879770884395216
TCT: Arch settled down, Arch got better, Arch had a good second half and a great fourth quarter. All is fine.
Concerns going forward
In the immediacy and until fixed penalties. See above.
In the short run, and the least of my worries, Arch Manning. I truly believe that he is going to learn from this and be back even better and stronger.
In the long run, beating “better” teams in important games. In the last three years, the Longhorns are 3-5 against Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, and Clemson.
To drive that point home, consider these stats from CJ Vogel on X:
In the four games against Ohio State and Georgia over the last year+ Texas is:
18-62 on 3rd downs (29%)
5-15 on 4th downs (33%)
On 9 red zone trips, Texas has converted just three touchdowns and only 24 points total.
Finally, Michael Taaffe knows.
San José State University
San José State’s roots date back to 1857, when the Minn’s Evening Normal School was established for the San Francisco public school system. For those who pay attention, the “normal schools” were for training teachers (not farmers). In 1862, the California legislature established statewide funding for a normal school system, and it became the flagship of the California State Normal School System. Its little brother in Los Angeles would grow up to be the University of California, Los Angeles. The school moved to San Jose in 1871.
About 36,000 students, with about 27,000 of those undergrad.
SJSU has an international reputation for its judo program, winning 52 National Collegiate Judo Association (NCJA) men’s team championship titles and 26 NCJA women’s team championship titles between 1962 and 2024. Better than meat judging.
Famous alumni include 1968 Olympians Lee Evans, Tommie Smith and John Carlos.
Other alums include Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Dian Fossey (mountain gorillas), and Coaches Bill Walsh and Dick Vermeil.
Musicians Doug Clifford and Stu Cook (Creedence Clearwater Revival), Tom Johnston and Patrick Simmons (the Doobie Brothers), Lindsey Buckingham and Stevie Nicks (Fleetwood Mac), and Paul Kantner (Jefferson Airplane) all attended San Jose State. Note “attended”.
Who remembers the book Winners Never Quit? Pretty sure I got it at a Scholastic Book Fair. Ken Venturi is an SJSU alum.
Week Two in the Southeastern Conference
Utah State (1-0) at No. 19 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, 11:45 a.m. on the SEC Network from Kyle Field in Aggieland. Mormon Aggies against our Aggies. Cult versus Cult. Texas Agricultural & Mechanical favored by 32.5, over/under is 55.5.
Austin Peay (1-0) at No. 4 Georgia (1-0), 2;30 p.m. on ESPN+/SECN+ from Sanford Stadium in Athens. The Governors and the Dawgs. No line. Georgia by 29.
No. 20 Ole Miss (1-0) at Kentucky (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on ABC, Kroger Field. What a nice surprise to have an SEC conference game on the second weekend of the season. A good game to watch after the Texas win. Rebels favored by 8.5, over/under is 50.5. Ole Miss to win, Kentucky to cover. Hotty Toddy!
East Tennessee State (1-0) at No. 22 Tennessee (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN+/SECN+. The Buccaneers are quarterbacked Cade McNamara, who is playing his 6th college season with prior stops at Michigan (Big 10 Championship) and Iowa (lots of injuries). At least he won’t be overwhelmed at Neyland. No line.
Kansas (2-0) at Missouri (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN2, Memorial Stadium in Columbia. The Border War. The War spans all sports, and it is probably most intense in basketball. But the football rivalry began in 1891, and the Tigers lead the series 57-54-9 (or 56-55-9, if you ask a Jayhawk). The winner also gets the Lamar Hunt Trophy, since Mr. Hunt brought the game to Arrowhead in 2007, where it was contested for several years. Mizzou favored by 6.5, over/under is 51.5. Go Tigers.
South Florida (1-0) at No. 13 Florida (1-0), 3:15 p.m. on the SEC Network from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Another game to check out, after South Florida’s big win over Boise State last week. This may be more of game than Billy and the Gators were counting on. Florida favored by 17.5 over the Bulls, over/under is 56.5.
Arkansas State (1-0) vs. Arkansas (1-0), at 4:00 p.m. on ESPN+/SECN+, from War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock. Pigs favored by 23.5, over/under is 64.5.
South Carolina State (1-0) at No. 10 South Carolina, 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+/SECN+ from Wiliams-Brice in Columbia. No line in the big game between these Bulldogs and Gamecocks.
Louisiana Tech (1-0) at No. 3 Louisiana State, 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+/SECN+ from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. What the heck, Disney? A night game with the No. 3 LSU Tigers at home in Death Valley behind a paywall? No bueno. Louisiana State favored by 37.5, total is 49.5. LA Tech to cover. Just kidding! Tigers by 42!
No. 12 Arizona State (1-0) at Mississippi State (1-0), 6:30 p.m. on ESPN2 from Davis-Wade Stadium. Not a terrible game, just up against some good ones. Sun Devils favored by 5.5 in StarkVegas. Total is 59.5.
No. 15 Michigan (1-0) at No. 18 Oklahoma, 6:30 p.m. on ABC from Memorial Stadium in Norman. I think the first Negroni will be coming out of the cocktail shaker in the first half, and this should be a good football game to watch. Good luck to the Wolverines. Land Thieves favored by 5.5, over/under is 44.5. I think this game is close to a toss-up. Don’t have a good guess, but if you made me bet, I would put $5 on the Land Thieves. Just for S&G.
BCF Toys Game Projection – a close one!
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Oklahoma | Michigan | .551 | 0.4 | 22.1 | 21.7 | 43.8 |
Ball State (0-1) at Auburn (1-0), 6:30 p.m. on ESPNU from Jordan-Hare Stadium on the Plains. Tigers are 43.5 (forty three and one-half) point favorites. Over/under is 51.5.
Vanderbilt (1-0) at Virginia Tech (0-1), 6:30 p.m. on the ACC Network from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg. Hokies favored by 2.5, over/under is 47.5. Anchor Down!
UL Monroe (1-0) at No. 21 Alabama (0-1), 6:45 p.m. on the SEC Network from Bryan-Denny in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide lead the series 3-1, so don’t forget 2007. I wish no ill will on our brothers from Alabama, but lordy this would be an epic upset. It has happened before. It won’t this week. Alabama favored by 245.5, total is 49.5. Bama by 31.
Week Two: Service Academies
UAB at Navy, 2:30 p.m. on CBSSN from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis. An early American matchup. Midshipmen favored by 20.5 over the Blazers, total is 59.5. Navy to win.
Army at Kansas State, 6:00 p.m. on ESPN from the Little Apple. Black Knights smarting after that wrangling by the Texans from Stephenville. Tough one. Wildcats favored by 17.5, total is 47.5.
Top 25 – Week Two
Florida International (1-0) at No. 2 Penn State (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on BTN. Thursday night, the get-in ticket price per ESPN was eight dollars ($8), less than the cost of beer at DKR. The Panthers aren’t much of a draw in State College, PA. Nittany Lions favored by 42.5, over/under is 53.5. That is a huge line for a PSU, even against FIU. Panthers to cover.
No. 11 Illinois (1-0) at Duke (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN. Interesting that the Fighting Illini are only 2.5 point favorites against the Blue Devils. Also that Duke’s quarterback is named Mensah. Over/under is 49.5.
East Texas A&M (0-1) at No. 14 Florida State (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on the ACC Network. The Lions are in for a long afternoon at Doak Walker Stadium. No line. Seminoles win by 52.
Iowa (1-0) at No. 16 Iowa State (2-0), 11:00 a.m. on FOX from Jack Trice Stadium in Ames. The battle for the Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Trophy. Hawkeyes lead the series, which began in 1894, 47-24. Cyclones favored by 3.5, total is 41.5. Iowa State to win and cover.
Baylor (0-1) at No. 17 Southern Methodist (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on the CW Network. The Bears and Mustangs meet for the first time since 2016. Baylor leads the series 39-36-7, going back to BU’s big 61-0 win in the first game in 1916. The last time Southern Methodist won was 1986. The Bears have won 13 in a row. Ponies are favored by 2.5, total is 63.5. SMU to win and cover. For those interested in the comparison and history:
Winsipedia – Baylor vs. SMU football series history
Kennesaw State (0-1) at No. 23 Indiana (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on FS1. I have never found anything about Indiana football that interests me. Hoosiers favored by 35.5, over/under is 52.5.
Kent State (1-0) at No. 24 Texas Tech (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on TNT/truTV/HBO Max. I get TNT and truTV, but HBO Max? Get in ticket price Thursday night on ESPN was eight dollars ($8). Sand Aggies favored by 48.5, total is 59.5.
Grambling (1-0) at No. 1 Ohio State (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on BTN. I wonder if the Buckeyes will have a hangover. Won’t matter. No line.
Oklahoma State (1-0) at No. 6 Oregon (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on CBS/Paramount+. Well, Mike Gundy made this interesting. Ducks favored by 27.5, over/under is 55.5. Oregon to win and cover. Before Mike got cute, I would have taking the Cowboys to cover. I expect Oregon will come out strong and not call the dogs off, at all.
Troy (1-0) at No. 4 Clemson (0-1), 2:30 p.m. on the ACC Network. A nice bounce back game for Dabo and Klubnik. Expect Klubnik to throw for about 380 and 4 scores. Tigers favored by 31.5, over/under is 51.5.
Cal Poly (1-0) at No. 25 Utah, 5:00 p.m. on ESPN+. No free broadcast, no line. No interest.
Bethune-Cookman (0-1) at No. 5 Miami, 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+/ACC Extra. The Wildcats don’t stand a chance. No line.
Other Games of Interest – Week Two
Virginia (1-0) at North Carolina State (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN2, from Carter-Finley Stadium in Raliegh. Wolfpack favored by 3.5, total is 53.5. Go Hoos! UVA to cover.
Miami Redhawks at Rutgers, 2:30 p.m. on Peacock from Piscataway in the Garden State. Scarlet Knights favored by 15.5. Total is 45.5. Go Miami! Redhawks to cover. Take the under.
Texas State (1-0) at UTSA (0-1), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN+ from the Alamodome. Roadrunners favored by 3.5, total is 64.5. UTSA played well against Texas Agricultural & Mechanical. I like the Roadrunners in this one, to win and cover. That’s a big total, but the weather will be good.
North Texas (1-0) at Western Michigan, 2:30 p.m. on ESPN+. Coach Eric Morris and the Mean Green with a big MAC game in Kalamazoo. UNT favored by 9.5, over/under is 56.5.
Houston (1-0) at Rice (1-0), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+ from Rice Stadium. Rice coming off the big win over ULaLa, the Cougars with a 27-0 win over Uncle Jack Morton’s SFA Lumberjacks. Houston favored by 13.5 over the Owls in the Bayou Bucket Classic.
Akron at Nebraska, 6:30 p.m. on BTN from Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. Cornhuskers favored by 34.5, total is 47.5. Big Red to win and cover.
Georgia Southern (0-1) at Southern Cal (1-0) at 6:30 p.m. on FS1, from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Trojans favored by 28.5, total is 61.5. This game will be as dry and dull as Lincoln Riley’s brisket. Southern Cal by 32. Fight On! Have fun Libby & Art!
UT Martin at UTEP, 8:00 p.m. on ESPN+ from the Sun Bowl. No line.
UTRGV at Prairie View A&M, 6:00 p.m. on SWAC TV. Full game notes:
UTRGV Football Game Notes 9 6 25 (PDF) – UTRGV Athletics
Washington & Lee University
The Generals open the 2025 campaign at home with No. 7 Salisbury University. 1:00 p.m., Shenandoah Valley time. Wilson Field in Rockbridge County. The Sea Gulls are coming off a stellar 2024 season, with a 12-1 record (undefeated in the regular season), a New Jersey Athletic Conference title, and the NCAA Division III quarterfinals. The small UM system D3 school is in Wicomoco County, Maryland. It was Maryland State Normal School, then Maryland State Teachers College, and eventually Salisbury University. A powerhouse in D3 Lacrosse (13 national championships). The Sea Gulls will be a tough challenge for the Blue & White. No line.
Most the kids I had a connection with have graduated except for Josh Garcia, the Senior RB from Austin High, but several Texans still on the roster. Teddy Sparrow (Junior WR from Episcopal in Dallas), James Lancaster (Freshman RB from Highland Park), Gabe Joyner (Junior DB from Lovejoy in Fairview), Cailen Graham (Senior OL form Episcopal in Houston), Jackson Todd (Sophomore TE from Tomball, the John Cooper School), Daniel Turner (Freshman DL from Highland Park), and Cole Sheppard (Sophomore DE from Spring, The John Cooper School).
The Juan Heisman Tailgate
The Juan Heisman Tailgate Crew kicks off its twenty-seventh season of Texas Football tailgate partying with breakfast tacos, bloody marys, and cold beer.
We welcome back Tito’s Handmade Vodka as our distilled spirits sponsor and provider. Thanks to Bryan Plater and Bert and all our friends at Tito’s Handmade Vodka.
Texas Beer Company, the great craft brewery in Taylor, Texas will be back most games with their great beers.
Twin Liquors is back on board thanks to my longtime good friend David Jabour, and we appreciate their help with our beer supply and other beverages. David and his family and Twin Liquors give back to the community in so many ways. Great people, and I am grateful to partner with them. Thanks David!
Week One in the Southeastern Conference
The Auburn Tigers went to Waco and got a solid 38-24 win over the Baylor Bears. BU QB Sawyer Roberston was 27/48 for 419 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jackson Arnold, the Auburn quarterback (late of Norman, Denton Guyer kid) was only 11/17 passing for 108, but he led the Tigers with 137 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns (16 attempts). A 93.7 QBR. Auburn covered the 1.5 point line handily.
No. 24 Tennessee crushed the Orange, 42-26. The Vols lead Syracuse 17-0 after the first quarter. Vols cover the 13.5 line. Total is 51.5.
Mississippi State won an in-state game! 24-17 over the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg. Alas, no cover for the Bulldogs. Line was 13.5. Lots of money lost in Tunica.
Kentucky Wildcats 24-16 over the Toledo Rockets. Kentucky covers (9.5).
No. 5 Georgia started strong, leading Marshall 38-0 going to the fourth quarter, when the Thundering Herd finally got on the board. 45-7 win for the Bulldogs. Line was UGA by 38.5. Damn those guys are good.
No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide 17, Florida State Seminoles 31. It wasn’t that close. Alabama was favored by 13.5. BCF Toys had Bama with a .925 likelihood of winning and a 20.2 margin of victory. The pros and the sabremetricians missed on this one, badly.
Arkansas 52, Alabama A&M 7.
The Land Thieves thrashed the Illinois State Redbirds 35-3.
UTSA Roadrunners 24, No. 19 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 42. Not that close, but: the Roadrunners had 373 yards of offense. Marcel Reed carried the aggies – 22/34 for 289 and 3 TDs passing, led Texas Agricultural & Mechanical in rushing with 39 yards on 8 attempts. The rest of the Fighting Texas Aggies combined for 71 yards rushing against the 210 Triangle of Toughness UTSA D. UTSA covered the 22.5 line.
No. 9 Louisiana State Tigers at No. 5 Clemson Tigers. What a great football game. The right Tigers won, 17-10, as Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik went toe to toe (edge to Nussmeier), but the Louisiana State defense held Clemson to 31 yards rushing. Clemson RB Adam Randall led those Tigers with 16 yards on 5 carries. No one else from Clemson was in double digits.
Lane Kiffin and his No. 21 Ole Miss Rebels did what they do well, putting a beating on a lesser opponent. 63-7 over the Georgia State Panthers (line was Ole Miss by 34.5). Hotty Toddy!
Vanderbilt 45, Charleston Southern 3.
In the least shocking news of Week One, the Long Island University Sharks were shutout and whipped by the No. 15 Florida Gators, 55-0. There was not a line, and I averred Gators by 50. Nailed it.
Fun Sunday game with Virginia Tech and No. 13 South Carolina. Gamecocks with the 24-11 win, covering (7.5).
Week One: Service Academies
Tarleton State at Army. This game didn’t have a line, and I can assure you it wasn’t because the bookies in Las Vegas thought the Texans were going to ride into Michie and beat Army. But somehow they did, in double overtime, 30-27. Brutal. Tarleton State may have a nice little team. Wish they were playing big brother at Kyle Field this year.
Navy 52, Virginia Military Institute 7. Veemies got blasted. Navy ran for 468 yards. Love that.
Bucknell at the Air Force 49, Bucknell 13. Air Force covers a big 31 point line. 11 different Falcons carried the ball, totaling 267 yards.
Top 25 – Week One
No. 20 Boise State was gouged by South Florida, 34-7. The line was Broncos by 6.5.
No. 12 Illinois Fighting Illini 52, Western Illinois Leathernecks 3. Impressive when you cover a 45 point line.
No. 20 Indiana 27-14 over Old Dominion. As I expected, the Hoosiers couldn’t cover the 23.5 line against the mighty Monarchs.
No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions 46. Nevada Wolfpack 11. PSU did not cover.
No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones 55-7 over the South Dakota Coyotes. ISU was favored by only 16.5, and the over/under was 46.5. Interesting.
No. 7 Oregon Ducks 59, Montana State Bobcats 13.
Okay, this was an interesting one which I didn’t follow Saturday night, but was amazed when I looked it up. North Dakota Fighting Hawks at No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats. Like that Army game, no line. Presumption that K State is going to win by 6 touchdowns or more. The Wildcats gave up two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and with less than 2 minutes to play trailed 35-31. With 101 seconds to play, K State is down 4. QB Avery Johnson leads the Wildcats on an 81 yard drive to score with 42 seconds left to get the lead, and K State hangs on for the win. Crazy!
No. 14 Michigan Wolverines 34-17 over the lowly Lobos. Michigan does what Michigan seems to do well, like another school I know. Play down to the competition. Line was Wolverines by 34.5 and they didn’t cover that by themselves. Hail to the victors.
Cody Campbell’s employees looked strong in the Sand Aggies’ big win over Arkansas Pine Bluff 67-7. Golden Lions didn’t stand a chance. If you haven’t seen video for photos of that storm moving through Lubbock, check this out:
No. 16 Southern Methodist cruised to a 42-13 win over the East Texas A&M Lions.
https://x.com/SMUFB/status/1565732504073433088
Arizona State already missing Skattebo. A 38-19 win over the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, but that is pretty close given the competition (no line).
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami (Florida). It had the feel of a great football game, and it was. Miami held the upper hand most of the game, but the Irish fought back in the fourth. Notre Dame tied it at 24 with 1:04 to play, but Carson Beck, who had a heckuva game, moved the Hurricanes down the field with a good 2-minute offense to set up what would be the game winning field goal. Disappointing for all the Deans, but glad Peter got to stay up and watch the game.
Other Games of Interest – Week One
Nebraska and Cincinnati played at Arrowhead Stadium, and it was like a home game for the Huskers. Big Red came out on top, 20-17.
The Miami Redhawks fought valiantly but fell to Wisconsin 0-17 at Camp Randle.
Virginia slams Coastal Carolina, 48-7. Nice big win against the Chanticleers, as the Hoos cover the 11.5 point line. Hook Em Hoos!
North Texas and Coach Eric Morris 51-0 over Lamar (and Eric called the dogs off in the 4th).
Southern Cal 73-13 over Missouri State, covering (35.5).
Rice! Owls beat the Ragin’ Cajuns 14-12. ULaLa favored by 11.5.
Texas Christian and Sonny Dykes went to Chapel Hill and schooled North Carolina and Bill Belichick, 48-14. Horned Frogs looked really good.
The Polls
I really like how Texas, Clemson, and Notre Dame were not punished harshly for their losses, effectively acknowledging that scheduling great games like this early in the season will not hurt you. (Recall last year Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois early and still made the CFP and played for a national championship.)
ESPN’s FPI
Remarkably, Texas still No. 1 in the FPI. That is a testament to our defense.
Fun to look at this every week and see how the probabilities for winning out, winning the SEC, making the playoffs, etc. change.
2025 College Football Power Index – ESPN
Bill Connelly’s SP+
SP+ is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing.” And the SP+ analytical program does not view the Longhorns favorably after Week 1.
Texas falls to No. 5. Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, Texas, Notre Dame, Louisiana State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Miami (FL).
PFF
College Football: Top 25 entering Week 2
PFF has The Ohio State University No. 1, followed by Louisiana State, Penn State, Miami (FL), Oregon, The University of Texas Longhorns at 6, Georgia, Clemson, Florida, and South Carolina. It just means more.
Some of the Lone Star State’s best sportswriters collaborate to produce the SEC Power Rankings. Kirk Bohls, Houston Chronicle; Cedric Golden, Austin American-Statesman; Reid Laymance, Houston Chronicle; Tony Catalina, Austin American-Statesman; Kevin Sherrington, Dallas Morning News.
Texas Volleyball
The Texas Volleyball team, now ranked No. 2, has started the season strong. Wins over No. 12 Creighton and No. 8 Wisconsin at the Opening Spike Classic, both matches in straight sets. Wednesday night, the Longhorns beat a good Rice Owls team 3-1.
This Sunday at 12 o’clock noon, Texas takes on No. 6 Stanford at The Moody Center. Hook Em!
Sergio Kindle
Thanks to the Texas Legacy Support Network newsletter, I learned the sad news that Lifetime Longhorn Sergio Kindle is battling colon cancer.
Or you can donate through the Texas Legacy Support Network:
Donation Form – Texas Legacy Support Network
Jim Nicar
“1962: U.T. Austin’s Texas Memorial Stadium with the Penick Tennis Courts at lower left. Look closely. Before the construction of the Alumni Center, the small white buildings with green roofs across the street were post-World War II temporary dorms.”
From Jim’s September 4, 2025 post on X:
Health Alliance for Austin Musicians
HAAM is celebrating its 20th anniversary this year. HAAM Day 2025 is September 23. Mark your calendar.
Music
Leonardo “Flaco” Jiménez passed away on July 31, 2025. He was one of Texas’ great songwriters and one of our best accordionists. Probably best known to most of us (gringos) as a member of the Texas Tornados, which included the great Doug Sahm, Freddy Fender, and Augie Meyers. Jazz is America’s greatest native music genre. In Texas, one our great native genres is conjunto. Flaco helped pioneer it. Along with Tejano and Norteño. Five Grammies.
Hey Baby Que Paso, Texas Tornados, Live from Austin, Texas.
Ay Te Dejo en San Antonio, Texas Tornados, Live from Austin, Texas. Really good work by Flaco on this one.
La Bamba, Flaco Jiménez and Ry Cooder
Flaco with Little Joe
All You Ever Do is Bring Me Down, The Mavericks y Flaco Jiménez on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno.
Pictures of the Week
JType. This photo is from his September 1, 2025 post on Instagram.
Henry Alejandro
There are several photographer who produce great videos of Austin, mostly with drones. Henry Alejandro is one of my favorites. @henry_alejandro93
On X: @tctayloratx
On LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/tctatx
On Instagram: @tctayloratx
On Facebook: www.Facebook.com/Tim.C.Taylor
and: www.Facebook.com/Juan.Heisman
You can contact me by mail:
Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371
Great read Tim! Enjoyed your commentary and know you to be a fine Texas Fan!!! Hope to run into you at one of the games! Keep up the good booster work!!
Thanks Nicki! Hope so too!