Florida Gators vs No. 7 Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns welcome the Gators back to Austin on Saturday. The game kicks off on Campbell-Williams Field in Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium at 11:00 a.m. and will be broadcast on ABC. Joe Tessitore with the play-by-play, Jesse Palmer with color and commentary, and Kris Budden reporting from the sidelines. Florida is 4-2 overall and 2-2 in the SEC, coming off back to back losses to Missouri and South Carolina. Texas is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in SEC play, of course coming into this game after the disastrous loss to the Land Thieves in the Red River Shootout. With that unexpected loss, the Longhorns have no room for error. Every game is now a must win to be assured a seat in the College Football Playoffs.
The game can be heard around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns Craig Way, joined by Roger Wallace in the booth and by Will Matthews on the sidelines. Listen in Austin on the Flagship, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM. In Henderson KWRD 1470 AM. In Del Rio on KWMC 1490 AM. And listen in San Angelo and the Concho Valley with Mr. McLaughlin on KKSA 1260 AM. Dr. Rubén Pizarro-Silva and Jesus Mendoza with the call in Spanish on certain Longhorn Radio Network affiliates and streaming on the Texas Longhorn App and at https://texas.leanplayer.com/.
This Saturday’s game with the Gators was already an important one on the calendar. A few weeks ago, it had the potential to be a top 10 matchup. But regardless of the rankings, it is important for the Longhorns because it will be the opportunity to avenge the loss that kept them out of the college playoffs last year. The worst loss of the 2025 season.
The importance of the game in terms of avenging last year’s loss is still there. But perhaps of greatest importance now is that how Texas plays this Saturday will show this team’s strength and resilience and how it responds after the disappointing loss in Dallas to the Land Thieves.
Texas opened as a 9½ point favorite. Early Friday morning, Texas is favored by 11.5. The over/under is 51.5. Money line: Texas minus 440 (was -375 on Tuesday), Florida plus 340 (was +295 on Tuesday).
Texas Longhorns 24, Oklahoma Sooners 27
I have, as you might suspect, struggled mightily this week. A stunning, heartbreaking loss. I have learned to remind myself that if these are the emotions with which I am struggling, imagine what the players are having to manage and at the same time turn the page and get ready for Florida. I hope they did it better than I did. I have some thoughts on the game below. Not a lot. I am bummed we lost. I am bummed there are no Longhorns en Español, no Monday Morning Highlights, no Mini-Movie of a glorious day at the State Fair of Texas and a victory over the Land Thieves. There are highlights from ESPN and the SEC, below. But it isn’t fun.
There is something extra painful about this one: Texas was the better team; Texas had more on the line; Texas lost the game because of mistakes; Texas basically spotted Oklahoma 14 of their 27 points, arguably 17. FFS. Special teams are our biggest problem and weakest link. Hard to stand on a three-legged stool when one of the legs is a couple of Big Gulp straws scotch-taped together. Yes, the offense needs to improve. But I am adamant in my belief that if Texas doesn’t give up that touchdown on the blocked punt at the start of the second quarter, the Longhorns win the game. It didn’t help that Texas was backed up to its 8-yard line because of Manning getting sacked twice, but regardless Texas has to be able to block and get the punt off. The Land Thieves had been shut out in the first quarter. 15 yards of offense on five 3 & out possessions. But that score gave the Sooner team and their fans a huge boost. Yes, Texas scored 10 more points and had what seemed to be a comfortable 17-7 halftime lead. Second half adjustments by Venables, gut punch penalties, and the turnovers doomed the Longhorns.
In 2023 Texas went to Dallas ranked 3rd and got upset by the Land Thieves, 30-34. A similar stinging loss. That Texas team turned the page and ran the table and then smoked Oklahoma State in the Big XII Championship. A hard loss to Washington in New Orleans, but the point is, this Texas team has every single goal still achievable. Quinn Ewers had the Horns inches from a spot in the National Championship (which I believe we would’ve won) after a loss on the second Saturday in October. There is a semifinal in the Sugar Bowl on January 15, 2027. Arch Manning needs to take us to his hometown. I would like to have dinner at Clancy’s that Saturday night, celebrating a Texas win and a spot in the national championship game.
College Football This Weekend
A huge day for college football. The big games, and my usual previews of these and the rest of the games with more information below.
- Kicking off at 11:00 a.m. on FOX opposite our game is No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana.
- 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 Louisiana State also at 11:00 on ESPN.
- Virginia at No. 24 Southern Methodist. First UVA game for Lottie and Talley. Go Hoos!
- 6 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee, 2:30 p.m. on ABC.
- 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss, 2:30 p.m. on the SEC Network.
- 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 Brigham Young, 6:30 p.m. on ABC. If the Irish win this one, then the only team between them and an undefeated regular season is Miami (Florida).
- 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston, 6:30 p.m. on FOX.
College Football Last Weekend
- Georgia went to Tuscaloosa and beat the Crimson Tide there for the first time since 2007. A classic hard-fought SEC game, with the Bulldogs coming out on top 20-17.
- Nebraska hung in there with Indiana, but the Hoosiers scored the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter and then forced turnovers on downs in both of the Cornhuskers’ last two possessions to secure a 20-17 win in Lincoln.
- UCLA went into Autzen and beat the Ducks 17-15. Oregon failed on their two-point try in their next to last possession but got the ball back with 48 seconds to play. Their comeback attempt fell short with a fumble. Bruins are 5-0.
- 3 Notre Dame blew out Stanford 58-7.
- Louisiana State at Kentucky turned out to be one of the most exciting games of the day. The Wildcats tied the game at 27 on a field goal with 12 seconds left to force overtime. LSU scored a touchdown, and Kentucky answered with a 1 yard touchdown run from CJ Baxter. Coach Will Stein of Kentucky went for two the second time in two weeks and Kenny Minchey ran it in for the game winner (apparently he saw the hole and improvised). 35-34 Kentucky.
- Southern Cal beat Penn State 31-23.
A good Saturday for ABC/ESPN and the SEC.
Florida Gators
Quarterbacks
Aaron Philo (No. 12, 6′1″, 207 pounds, from Bogart, Georgia). Philo has completed 105 of 149 passes (70.47%) for 1,341 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in six games. He also has three rushing touchdowns.
Tramell Jones, Jr. (No. 9, 6′, 196 pounds, sophomore from Jacksonville). Hopefully we will only see Jones if Philo can’t go. He’s played in in 5 of 6 games, all garbage time. 23 of 29 for 252 yards and two touchdowns, but also two interceptions.
Running Backs
Jadan Baugh (No. 13, 6′1″, 225 pounds, junior from Atlanta) leads the Gators with 672 yards and 12 touchdowns on 110 carries, averaging 6.1 yards per carry and 112 yards per game. He also has 7 catches for 46 yards.
Duke Clark (No. 20, 6′2″, 208 pounds, sophomore from Tampa) has 36 carries for 265 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Clark has added 5 receptions for 26 yards and a touchdown. Clark is out for the Texas game.
Wide Receivers
Dallas Wilson (No. 6, 6′3″, 212 pounds, sophomore from Tampa) leads Florida with 26 catches for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 14.5 yards per reception.
Vernell Brown III (No. 1, 5′11″, 178 pounds, sophomore from Gainesville) has 17 receptions for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns in four games, averaging 15.9 yards per catch. Brown also has 5 punt returns for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brown has missed the last couple of games and is questionable for Saturday.
Bailey Stockton (No. 3, 5′10″, 183 pounds, senior from Bogart, Georgia, a Georgia Tech transfer), has 23 catches for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns.
TJ Abrams (No. 4, 5′10″, 198 pounds, junior from Fort Myers) has 10 receptions for 180 yards and a touchdown, averaging 18 yards per catch.
Tight Ends
Luke Harpring (No. 15, 6′3″, 237 pounds, junior from Atlanta, another Georgia Tech transfer), leads the tight ends with 12 catches for 137 yards (no touchdowns).
Amir Jackson (No. 7, 6′5″, 232 pounds, junior from Statesboro, Georgia) has 5 receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown, averaging 21.2 yards per catch.
Defense
Myles Graham (No. 5, 6′1″, 228 pounds, junior ILB from Gainesville, Florida; 41 tackles.)
Aaron Chiles (No. 8, 6′3″, 238 pounds, junior ILB from Largo, Maryland; 32 tackles.)
Jayden Woods (No. 0, 6′3″, 245 pounds, sophomore JACK from Shawnee, Kansas; 4.5 sacks.)
Head Coach
Jon Sumrall is in his first season in Gainesville, the Gators’ 31st head football coach. A former Kentucky linebacker, Sumrall later coached at his alma mater and Ole Miss. He compiled a 23-4 record at Troy, winning consecutive Sun Belt championships in 2022 and 2023. In two seasons at Tulane, he went 20-8, taking the Green Wave to consecutive conference championship games and winning the American Athletic Conference title and getting Tulane in the College Football Playoffs in 2025. Sumrall arrived at Florida with a 43-12 head coaching record, three conference championships, and a reputation for emphasizing toughness, discipline, and player development. His season started pretty darn good, but the last couple of weeks have been rough.
The 2026 Florida Season:
Game 1: Florida hosted Florida Atlantic University to open the season and crushed the Owls 66-21. Philo was 16/21 for 275 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 pick, and he had a rushing touchdown. Jones was 4/5 for 68 yards and a touchdown. Baugh ran for 160 yards and 3 touchdowns on 14 carries, including a 61-yard run. Brown had 6 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown (49 yards). Nine other Gators had catches. Myles Graham was their leading tackler with 10 and half a sack. McCloud had 8 tackles. Dijon Johnson and DJ Coleman had interceptions.
Game 2: The Campbell Camels came to the Swamp, and it was another beatdown. Florida with the 52-3 win. Philo 16/21 for 242 and two touchdowns; Jones threw for 58 yards and an interception. Baugh 14 rushes for 136 yards and 2 scores, including a 75-yard touchdown run. Wilson had 5 catches for 104 yards and a score. Brown had 3 receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown. Graham was the leading tackler, with 6. 23 Gators were in the boxscore on defense. Vernell Brown returned two punts for touchdowns, and totaled 173 yards on four returns.
Game 3: The Gators opened SEC play on the road at Auburn. Florida was favored by 2.5 and escaped the Plains with a 44-39 win over the Tigers. Philo was 15/22 for 204 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, ran for 22 yards. Jadan Baugh had 26 carries for 162 yards and 3 scores, including a 53-yard touchdown and a 33-yard touchdown. Clark added another 50 yards and a touchdown. Brown had 5 catches for 86 yards. Wilson had 4 for 74 yards and a touchdown. Jayden Woods led the Gators with 6 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Thornton also had 5 tackles.
Game 4: No. 4 Ole Miss went to Gainesville to play No. 21 Florida. The Rebels were 3.5 point underdogs, and I figured they would get the upset. But Vegas knew something, and Ole Miss got rocked 52-28. A big win for the Gators. Philo was 16/23 for 196 yards and 1 TD, ran for a score too. Gators had 302 yards on the ground: Baugh 142 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries; Duke Clark 126 yards and a score on 12 carries, including a 45-yard touchdown run. Receiving very spread out; Amir Jackson had the touchdown catch. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was 25/34 for 298 yards and a score, 1 pick. Graham led with 8 tackles. London Montgomery had 3 kick returns for 128 yards, including a 75-yarder. Total kick and punt return yardage was 167 yards.
Game 5: No. 8 Florida went on the road to play No. 25 Missouri. The Tigers shut down Baugh and slapped down the Gators, 45-17. Baugh was leading the SEC with 150 yards per game. The Gators were 5.5 point favorites, ESPN’s predictor gave Florida a 70.2% probability of winning. Baugh managed 13 yards on 12 carries, and he had a long rush of 12 yards. Philo was 21/34 for 197 yards and a score. Jones was 5/5 for 86 yards and a score. Missouri’s Austin Simmons threw for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Tiger RB Jamal Roberts ran 211 yards and 3 scores on 24 carries (including an 80 yarder). An upset, but it begged the question: Is Missouri that much better than we thought, or was Florida overrated? A little of both.
Game 6: The Gators were back home in the Swamp with a game against South Carolina, 2 wins and 3 SEC losses. Florida favored by 11.5, ESPN said 73% win probability. The Gamecocks doubled up Florida, 38-19. Philo was 21/28 for 227 yards, 1 TD (59 yard pass to Stockton), 1 INT; ran for 32 yards. Jones was 6/8 for 40 yards and a pick. Baugh netted 59 yards on 15 carries (with a long run of 26). Aaron Chiles had 9 tackles and a TFL. Myles Graham had 8 tackles and 2 sacks. 59 yards in kick returns.
This is favorable. If Brown and Philo can’t go, Texas should cover.
Texas Longhorns vs. Florida Gators
Last week’s game certainly showed the potential for inaccuracies in the models and projections. But as I said, rivalry games are different, especially the Red River Shootout. Same held true to some degree in last season’s loss in Gainesville, although that was by no means a rivalry game. Just a game where the (reasonably) expected metrics and projections did not translate to play on the field. But, more often than not, most of the statistics and models are insightful. Some good ones here.
The Statistics
Offense
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Rushing Offense | #88, #12 – 142.20 ypg | #34, #5 – 200.33 ypg |
| Passing Offense | #62, #9 – 237.0 ypg | #25, #4 – 273.5 ypg |
| Total Offense | #80, #12 – 379.2 ypg | #18, #5 – 473.8 ypg |
| Scoring Offense | #59, #11 – 31.4 ppg | #12, #4 – 41.7 ppg |
| First Downs | #55, #11 – 21.6/game | #23, #4 – 24.0/game |
| Sacks Allowed | #90, #7 – 12.0, 72 yards | #40, #4 – 8.0, 57 yards |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed | #110, #13 – 35.0, 153 yards | #81, #7 – 31.0, 123 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #46, #8 – 44.59% | #36, #7 – 45.83% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #44, #7 – 62.50% (5/8) | #43, #6 – 63.64% (7/11) |
| Touchdowns | #76, #11 – 19 total, 14 RZ | #9, #4 – 32 total, 22 RZ |
| Red Zone Attempts | #61, #10 – 21 | #10, #3 – 29 |
| Red Zone Offense | #41, #7 – 90.48% / 66.67% | #26, #4 – 93.10% / 75.86% |
| Long Run Plays | #78, #12 – 25/10+, 3/20+, 1/30+, 1/40+ | #44, #6 – 32/10+, 12/20+, 6/30+, 5/40+ |
| Long Pass Plays | #76, #12 – 48/10+, 13/20+, 7/30+, 5/40+ | #25, #5 – 61/10+, 26/20+, 11/30+, 6/40+ |
Defense
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Rushing Defense | #19, #4 – 96.00 ypg | #46, #9 – 124.33 ypg |
| Passing Defense | #23, #3 – 168.4 ypg (61.3%) | #131, #16 – 268.7 ypg (64.9%) |
| Total Defense | #12, #3 – 264.4 ypg | #109, #16 – 393.0 ypg |
| Scoring Defense | #21, #3 – 16.0 ppg | #113, #15 – 29.0 ppg |
| First Downs Allowed | #26, #5 – 16.4/game | #113, #15 – 21.5/game |
| Sacks | #8, #3 – 18.0, 115 yards | #14, #5 – 17.0, 70 yards |
| Tackles for Loss | #18, #5 – 40.0, 169 yards | #14, #4 – 42.0, 127 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #23, #4 – 30.88% | #126, #15 – 46.74% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #33, #3 – 37.50% (3/8) | #94, #10 – 58.33% (7/12) |
| Red Zone Attempts | #12, #1 – 12 | #109, #14 – 22 |
| Red Zone Defense | #25, #3 – 75.00% / 33.33% | #85, #8 – 86.36% / 63.64% |
| Long Run Plays Allowed | #16, #3 – 15/10+, 3/20+, 2/30+, 1/40+ | #34, #7 – 18/10+, 4/20+, 2/30+, 2/40+ |
| Long Pass Plays Allowed | #23, #2 – 35/10+, 9/20+, 4/30+, 3/40+ | #134, #16 – 66/10+, 22/20+, 10/30+, 3/40+ |
Special Teams
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Long Punt Returns | #22, #3 – 2/20+, 0/30+, 0/40+ | #8, #1 – 3/20+, 3/30+, 2/40+ |
| Punt Returns | #77, #9 – 8.62 yards avg, 22.4 ypg | #2, #1 – 27.00 yards avg, 31.5 ypg |
| Long Punt Returns Allowed | #80, #13 – 1/20+, 1/30+, 1/40+ | #1, #1 – 0/20+, 0/30+, 0/40+ |
| Opponent Punt Returns | #115, #15 – 13.67 yards avg, 16.4 ypg | #73, #11 – 8.00 yards avg, 2.7 ypg |
Texas is tied at No. 132 for last with Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Northern Illinois, and Georgia Southern with allowing 2 punts returned for touchdowns (if you count the blocked punt). About 120 FBS schools have not allowed a punt return for a touchdown, and 11 have allowed one.
Other
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Turnovers | #61, #4 – 7 lost | #61, #4 – 7 lost |
| Turnover Margin | #97, #12 – 5:7 -2 (-0.40/game) | #58, #5 – 8:7 +1 (+0.17/game) |
| Penaltiesπ | #42, #3 – 33, 311 yards | #120, #15 – 48, 467 yards |
πBased on total number of penalties.
Match-up Comparison
Texas Offense |
Florida Defense |
| Rushing Offense – 142.20 ypg | 124.33 ypg – Rushing Defense |
| Passing Offense – 237.0 ypg | 268.7 ypg – Passing Defense |
| Total Offense – 379.2 ypg | 393.0 ypg – Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense – 31.4 ppg | 29.0 ppg – Scoring Defense |
| First Downs – 21.6/game | 21.5/game – First Downs Allowed |
| 3rd Down Offense – 44.59% | 46.74% – 3rd Down Defense |
| 4th Down Offense -62.50% | 58.33% – 4th Down Defense |
| Red Zone Offense – 90.48%/66.67% | 86.36%/63.64% – Red Zone Defense |
| LRP – 25/10, 3/20, 1/30, 1/40 | 18/10, 4/20, 2/30, 2/40 – LRP Allowed |
| LPP – 48/10, 13/20, 7/30, 5/40 | 66/10, 22/20, 10/30, 3/40 – LPP Allowed |
Texas Defense |
Florida Offense |
| Rushing Defense – 96.00 ypg | 200.33 ypg – Rushing Offense |
| Passing Defense – 168.4 ypg | 273.5 ypg – Passing Offense |
| Total Defense – 264.4 ypg | 473.8 ypg – Total Offense |
| Scoring Defense – 16.0 ppg | 41.7 ppg – Scoring Offense |
| First Downs Allowed – 16.4/game | 24.0/game – First Downs |
| 3rd Down Defense – 30.88% | 45.83% – 3rd Down Offense |
| 4th Down Defense -37.50% | 63.64% – 4th Down Offense |
| Red Zone Defense – 75.00%/33.33% | 93.10%/75.86% – Red Zone Offense |
| LRP Allowed – 15/10, 3/20, 2/30, 1/40 | 32/10, 12/20, 6/30, 5/40 – LRP |
| LPP Allowed – 35/10, 9/20, 4/30, 3/40 | 61/10, 26/20, 11/30, 6/40 – LPP |
A good presentation of the stats comparison from Justin Nash. Prettier than mine,
https://x.com/NashTalksTexas/status/2110016144547459375?s=20
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | |
| Texas | No. 8: 1.00 | No. 27: 0.28 | No. 3: 0.72 | No. 66: 0.01 |
| Florida | No. 36: 0.66 | No. 13: 0.41 | No. 77: -0.05 | No. 9: 0.09 |
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 32: 0.132 | No. 83: 0.448 | No. 7: 0.315 |
| Florida | No. 53: 0.042 | No. 19: 0.599 | No. 107: 0.557 |
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 25: 1.26 | No. 67: 2.38 | No. 6: 1.11 |
| Florida | No. 60: 0.14 | No. 15: 3.42 | No. 124: 3.28 |
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 31: 0.95 | No. 93: 5.29 | No. 9: 4.33 |
| Florida | No. 63: 0.13 | No. 24: 6.65 | No. 106: 6.52 |
Possession Efficiency. Possession Efficiency (PVE) is unadjusted scoring value calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions (NP) in FBS vs. FBS games.
| PVE | OVE | DVE | SVE | |
| Texas | No. 36: 0.48 | No. 74: -0.08 | No. 10: 0.63 | No. 100: -0.05 |
| Florida | No. 71: 0.00 | No. 21: 0.40 | No. 119: -0.40 | No. 50: 0.03 |
As my concerns about special teams have intensified and with my worries now justified, here is an interesting metric from Fremeau: Special Teams Game Ratings. “Game results include the final score (Final) and the score as of the conclusion of non-garbage possessions in the game (N Final). Special Teams Game Ratings (SGR) are game-level SFEI data, representing opponent-adjusted scoring value generated per non-garbage possession. Special teams possession efficiency (SVE) is unadjusted per possession scoring value on field goals, punts, kickoffs, and point-after-touchdown attempts. Field goal (FGR), punt (PGR), kickoff (KGR), and point-after-touchdown (XGR) game ratings are unadjusted combined team and opponent unit possession value splits generated per possession. Each includes the percentile rating (Pct) of the special teams performance relative to all others recorded this season.”
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas | Florida | .832 | 14.2 | 34.3 | 20.1 | 54.4 |
I have to admit, I would be really excited to see Texas score 34 points.
College Football Insiders – more detail at the link.
Official Game Notes from The University:
https://texaslonghorns.com/documents/2026/10/14/07_-_FL.pdf
Previews:
The Stampede, with Mack Brown, Vince Young, and Bob Ballou and joined by my friend Quan Cosby. Nearly an hour and 20 minutes.
Josh Pate.
ESPN College Football, Greg McElroy
TCT Thoughts
This may be one of the simplest pre-game analyses since we joined the SEC. Florida has a very decent offense and a crappy defense. Look at the key categories where the Gators are 109th or worse.
Texas Defense has to be play up to its potential. Biles and Cryer are going to have to stop Baugh, assuming he isn’t stuffed at the line (or behind, which would be useful). Missouri shut the Gator ground game down, surely Muschamp and his men can. Simmons and Jackson have to make Philo (or Jones) miserable. He is likely short one of his best receivers. They have a good offense but it is clearly stoppable. If South Carolina can hold them under 20, Texas can. That should be the goal. Sark is 63-4 if the opponent scores less than 21 points.
Texas offense has to be SarkArch 2.0. This can’t be rocket science. It starts with Sark and play calling for Arch Manning – as in scheme to strength. Among the many interesting analyses I saw from last weekend was from either CJ Vogel or Evan Vieth (apologies guys). Arch Manning on throws between the numbers against Oklahoma:
- 14/16 (87.5%) 217 yards (13.6 ypa) 3 TD, 0 INT
- Manning outside the numbers: 5/11 (45%) 43 yards (3.9 ypa) 0 TD, 2 INT
That is what one would call in poker, a tell. Note that these are scrubbed stats, with throw-aways thrown out. On a standard football field, the yard-line numbers are painted 12 yards from each sideline. The area directly between those numbers spans the middle 29.3 yards of the field’s total width (53.3-yards). So, if Arch can throw in that 29.3 yard window, he enjoys great success. Outside, not so much. Texas has some phenomenal receivers. Figure it out. This is a chance for Arch to light it up. Florida has a bad pass defense, 131st in the country.
Second, on offense, the line needs to start blocking and the backs need to starting getting downfield. Texas is 117th in yards per carry, with a 3.66 yard average. One hundred seventeenth. Out of 138 programs. (Remarkably, next to last is OU, at 2.89). And while I am on the running game, Arch needs to run the ball more. How about some RPO? We saw last year that Arch Manning has the athletic ability and speed to successfully run the ball. Time to unleash all our weapons, starting with No. 16.
Special Teams. Texas can likely beat Florida without pristine special teams play, but that won’t be the case the rest of the season. Sarkisian needs to fix it. I refer you to Coach Mack Brown’s comments on The Stampede. Watch this one.
https://x.com/TheStampedeUT/status/2110092587939864720?s=20
Finally, the usual: play clean football. No turnovers (we have dropped into negative territory) and limit the penalties. Play like we did against Ohio State. Florida is way worse than Texas (#120, 48 flags for 467 yards this season). Texas should have an edge here.
Time to see if Banks can right the ship and get the monkey off his back. If not, rewatch Mack’s clip.
Time to let Arch be Arch. It would be a great day to see Simmons and the defense dominate an opponent. I think this is the game.
TCT Prediction: Texas 42, Florida 20
Texas Longhorns 24, Oklahoma Sooners 27
The day started well, and the Cotton Bowl was packed to perfection. Great photo above from disasterfilm on Instagram.
I’ll be honest and say that I did not have the desire or they will to go back and rewatch the game or even much of the highlights. As I know from talking to many of you, this one seemed to hurt worse than most. It was a brutal combination of Texas failing to execute, particularly on special teams at a couple of critical times, Oklahoma capitalizing on Texas mistakes, and Texas failing to play complementary football.
Sure, there were a lot of plays that impacted us that could’ve gone the other way. While I couldn’t see it from my seats, the pass interference call on Kade Phillips definitely looked questionable in rewatching it. But if you watched the Georgia-Alabama game, you saw a much more egregious officiating mistake, when they didn’t throw the flag on Georgia after the Alabama receiver was tackled in the end zone before the ball got there.
I think there are a few maxims with regard to great college football teams. One of them is that a great team destined for a championship is able to overcome mistakes and still win a game. And by no means am I suggesting that this Texas team can’t be a great team this year. On the contrary, I still believe the Longhorns will be in college football playoffs and have all the talent to make a good run. But one other college football maxim: great rivalries produce great games that are often unpredictable. We saw that last Saturday. Last week I said “Every metric and every betting model suggests Texas will win by a touchdown or more. But none of those can take into account the subjective factors of college football, especially a rivalry game and the emotion and unpredictable variables, especially pure chance momentum changers. And especially in this game, one of the greatest rivalries in college football – of course in my opinion the very best rivalry. This week, add in that the Sooners are on the ropes, a wounded bear. Mateer is a very decent quarterback who is competitive and wants to help his team punch their way off the ropes and back to respectability.”
That played out in spades, as Texas gave the Sooners points and field position and served up the upset opportunity on a silver platter. Or, I guess in a Golden Hat.
Defense had some fantastic series. Even in the brutal second half, OU’s offense was held in check for the most part. 3 points in the third quarter. Their first touchdown in the fourth quarter was a short field – 47 yards (recall my field position comments). The had a 4 play drive and a 3 and out in the fourth quarter. One scoring drive over 50 yards.
Arch and the offense had some nice drives too. I like a one play 41 yard touchdown drive (Arch to Cam). A 75 yard touchdown drive in the second quarter. 60 yard drive that got a field goal (but should have been a touchdown).
A frustrating loss. The players deserved better.
A good article on Orangebloods from Cody Carpentier. He does his version of the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. The Good lifted my spirits. The rest, not so much.
The Texas Longhorns issue is a Blinking Light on the Christmas Tree – Orangebloods
If you do want to rewatch the game, here is every play, condensed, from Nash Talks Texas.
https://x.com/NashTalksTexas/status/2110551328015733125?s=20
OU Weekend and The State Fair of Texas
This Texas-OU weekend went almost 100% according to plans and expectations.
Although the drive to Dallas was nearly 5 hours long Friday afternoon, that wasn’t entirely unexpected leaving later than planned. The Friends of the University PAC reception was excellent, with Chairman Eltife, President Davis, and Chris Del Conte.
A really great dinner at Javier‘s with Carol & Tim Crowley, Page & Ivan Young, Elizabeth & Connor Davis, Peyton Werra & Austin Brockman, and my OU weekend ride-or-die Longhorn daughter, Claudia. Saw too many friends there to even begin to list. It is always one of the weekend’s highlights outside of the game itself. Hat tip to Judd Messer and Hunter Wilcox and especially their wives for shutting Javier’s down. Purple Hearts for Caroline and Hannah.
Saturday morning was a smooth ride to Fair Park with Tony Dewar and the crew. In the Fletcher’s line I ran into Jason Becker and his kids and Mary and Jerry Bell. The Fletcher’s Corny Dog was perfect, paired with a Modelo beer. From there to Katie’s Café for the world’s tastiest patty melt and a few bites of cheeseburger. I was able to meet up with Claudia pretty easily and we were in our seat seats almost an hour before kickoff.
Halftime was just the way it should be, Claudia and I enjoyed an appropriate Frito pie. Ran into fellow W&L General Chip Flanagan as usual and as anticipated. And we were back in the Cotton Bowl less than a minute into the second half.
A very pleasant evening at the Dewar house, enjoying pizza and fellowship and football. A great Georgia – Alabama game, and one heck of a game in Lexington, Kentucky, watching the Wildcats walk it off with a two point conversion in overtime to beat LSU.
Win or lose, it is still the best football weekend of the year. Big thanks to Carol and Tim Crowley for yet another memorable dinner at Javier’s, and to Juli and Tony Dewar for their hospitality.
Winsipedia comparison
Some Not Fun Stuff
A few of the things from last week that sting.
- Before Saturday, Texas and OU had played 5 times when the Longhorns were ranked No. 1 and have never lost. That record is now 4-1-1.
- Before Saturday, four times since 2000 an undefeated team has met a team with two or more losses at the Red River Rivalry. Texas was 2-0. Oklahoma was 0-2. That is over.
- “Oklahoma has a non-offensive score in 30.5% of their games under Brent Venables. An insane rate. They will need a non-offensive score to beat Texas. Maybe multiple. In the Venables era: OU is 15–2 with a non-offensive score. OU is 19–20 with NO non-offensive score.” [That was from CJ Vogel] They got two, beat Texas, and now are 16-2 with a non-offensive score.
Week Seven in the Southeastern Conference
No. 16 Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1) at No. 22 Louisiana State (4-2, 1-2), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Tigers are the only 2 loss team in the AP Top 25. The Bulldogs have a chance to crush the remaining hopes of the Cajuns. ESPN Matchup Predictor has the Bayou Bengals at 76.8%. Louisiana State favored by 15.5, over/under is 57.5.
The Citadel (2-4) at Texas Agricultural & Mechanical (3-3), 11:00 a.m. on SECN+ from Kyle Field in College Station. Aggies favored by 45.5, over/under is 56.5.
Auburn (3-2, 1-2) at No. 1 Georgia (6-0, 4-0), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN from Sanford Stadium in Athens. ESPN Matchup Predictor has the Bulldogs at 90.3%. Georgia favored by 19.5, over/under is 49.5. Dawgs to win.
No. 6 Alabama (5-1, 3-1) at No. 14 Tennessee (6-1, 2-1), 2:30 p.m. on ABC from Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. Alabama is favored by 7.5, over/under is 50.5. BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Alabama | Tennessee | .740 | 9.5 | 30.6 | 21.2 | 51.8 |
No. 13 Missouri (5-1, 2-1) at No. 9 Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1), 2:30 p.m. on the SEC Network from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. Rebels have a huge task this Saturday. Ole Miss favored by 5.5, over/under is 58.5. BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Ole Miss | Missouri | .561 | 2.2 | 27.4 | 25.3 | 52.7 |
Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) at Vanderbilt (3-3,0-3), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN2 from Nashville. ESPN says Dores at 56.9%. Vanderbilt favored by 6, over/under is 49.5. BCF:
No. 15 Kentucky (5-1, 4-1) at Oklahoma (3-2, 1-1), 6:30 p.m. on the SEC Network from Memorial Stadium in Norman. Land Thieves favored by 6.5, over/under is 43.5. BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Oklahoma | Kentucky | .650 | 5.6 | 24.9 | 19.3 | 44.2 |
Week Seven: Service Academies
Florida Atlantic (4-1, 1-0) at Army (3-2, 2-1), 11:00 a.m. on CBSSN from Michie Stadium in West Point. Army favored by 2.5 points, over/under is 54.5. ESPN Matchup Predictor: Army 68.6%. Black Knights to win.
Navy (2-3, 0-2) at U.T. San Antonio (5-1, 2-0) 7:00 p.m. on ESPNU from the Alamodome in Bexar County. Roadrunners are a good team, but rush defense is a weakness; 119th in the nation, allowing 184.67 yards per game. The Midshipmen are third in the nation in rushing (behind Army and Air Force), averaging 299.40 ypg. Should be interesting. UTSA favored by 6.5, over/under is 55.5.
UNLV (4-1, 2-1) at Air Force (4-1, 2-1) 2:30 p.m. on CBSSN from Falcon Stadium at USAF Academy, Colorado. Rebels are quarterbacked by Jackson Arnold, out of Denton Guyer, who was with the Land Thieves out of high school, got run off, then spent last year at Auburn. Well, Las Vegas is an upgrade over Norman, but that is a low bar. Falcons are 1.5 home underdogs, over/under is 47.5. Air Force to win.
Top 25 – Week Seven
Virginia Cavaliers (4-2, 2-1) at No. 24 Southern Methodist (4-1, 2-1), 11:00 a.m. on the CW from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park. Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings leads the ACC with 317.6 yards per game and has a 75% completion rate (14 TDs, 5 picks). Cavaliers have Beau Pribula, 179 ypg, but 13 TDs and 1 interception. Southern Methodist favored by 9.5, over/under is 51.5. Have fun Flemings! Go Hoos! BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| SMU | UVA | .646 | 5.4 | 28.1 | 22.6 | 50.7 |
No. 4 Ohio State (5-1, 3-0) at No. 5 Indiana (6-0, 3-0), 11:00 a.m. on FOX from Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Hoosiers have a 19-game home winning streak. Buckeyes are favored by 3.5, the over/under is 50.5. BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Ohio State | Indiana | .557 | 2.0 | 27.8 | 25.8 | 53.6 |
No. 25 Northwestern (4-1, 1-1) at Michigan State (2-4, 0-3), 11:00 a.m. on Peacock from Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Wildcats favored by 7, over/under is 49.5.
Arizona State (3-2, 1-1) at No. 10 Texas Tech (5-0, 2-0), 2:30 p.m. from Lubbock. Sand Aggies are favored by 15.5, total is 50.5.
Florida State (3-2, 1-2) at No. 3 Miami (FL) (5-0, 3-0), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN. Wouldn’t mind watching some of this and seeing Mensah. And rooting for a Seminole upset. Hurricanes favored by 21.5, over/under is 56.5.
No. 2 Notre Dame (6-0) at No. 8 Brigham Young (5-0), 6:30 p.m. on ABC from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo. First ever top-10 matchup in Provo. Notre Dame has the No. 27 offense, Brigham Young No. 44. Notre Dame has the No. 1 defense, Brigham Young is No. 7. I was talking about the game with my friend Jim Ilkenhans, a BYU alum. He has been watching the Cougars’ games, and Jim said Bear Bachmeier reminds him a lot of Taysom Hill. After a momentary black-out caused by the PTSD, I regained consciousness. I wonder if he still gives Manny nightmares? Fighting Irish are favored by 10½, and the over/under is 46.5. Money lines: Notre Dame minus 395, BYU plus 310. Notre Dame to win. BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Notre Dame | Brigham Young | .770 | 10.9 | 30.4 | 19.5 | 49.8 |
Wisconsin (4-1, 2-0) at No. 12 UCLA (5-0, 3-0), 6:30 p.m. on NBC from the Rose Bowl. Bruins are favored by 2.5, over/under is 43.5. UCLA to win and cover.
No. 18 Oklahoma State (4-1, 2-0) at No. 20 Houston (5-1, 2-1), 6:30 p.m. on FOX. Drew Mestemaker is No. 3 in the nation in passing, averaging 315 ypg. Houston’s pass defense is 118th in the nation and 12th in the Big 12, allowing 248.3 ypg. Cougars are favored by 4.5, over/under is 62.5. I give the edge to Coach Morris and his quarterback. Cowboys to win. BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Houston | Oklahoma State | .770 | 10.9 | 34.0 | 23.1 | 57.0 |
No. 11 Utah (5-0) at Colorado (2-3), 9:15 p.m. on ESPN from Folsom Field in Boulder. Buffs are just not very good. Utes favored by 14.5, over/under is 49.5.
No. 21 Wake Forest (5-1, 3-1) at California (3-3, 2-1). 9:30 p.m. on ESPN2 from California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. Deacs favored by 10, over/under is 53.5.
Week Seven: Other Games of Interest
Thursday Night
Texas State smoked Colorado State 66-27 in a Pac-12 game in San Marcos. Let that sink in. Bobcats were favored by 14.
Friday Night
Memphis (5-1) at Tulane (2-3), 6:30 p.m. on ESPN from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Tigers are favored by 7.
Saturday
Pittsburgh (5-1) at Boston College (2-3), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN2 from Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. The Panthers’ stay in the top 25 was, as we say in baseball, a cup of coffee. Bummer. They will rebound this weekend. Pitt favored by 6.5.
North Carolina (3-2) at Duke (4-1), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN2 from Wallace Wade Stadium. Blue Devils favored by a 3 pointer.
Penn State (3-2, 0-3) at Michigan (3-2, 0-2), 2:30 p.m. on CBS. My god I loathe Penn State. C’mon Big Blue. Wolverines favored by 7, over/under is 42.5.
Akron (1-5, 0-2) at Miami (3-3, 101) 2:30 p.m. on ESPN2 from Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio. RedHawks favored by 10, over/under is 46.5. Miami needs to rebound.
Texas Christian (2-3, 0-2) at Baylor (4-1, 2-0), 6:00 p.m. on FS1 from McLane Stadium in Waco. I-35 through Waco is jacked. The Revivalry. Or, like so many sorry re-brands, “The Bluebonnet Battle”. “The new name was selected to reflect the series becoming the most-played between two teams in the State of Texas in 2023. The Bluebonnet, which is also the state flower of Texas, lines Interstate-35 for parts of the year connecting both schools’ campuses.” Should’ve hired GSD&M, because that is messed up. Revivalry was cool, and the schools’ Christian heritages are among the best facets of this rivalry. Oh well. First played in 1899, the year Charles Hertz was born. TCU leads the series 60-54-7. Bears favored by 5.5, total is 48.5. Go Frogs bim bam zam ram or whatever.
San Jose State (2-3) at UTEP (1-5), 8:00 p.m. on MW+ from the Sun Bowl in El Paso. Spartans favored by 7, the over/under is 45.5. Good luck Miners. Been a tough year.
Slippery Rock plays No. 19 Indiana University (Pa.) in Indiana, Pennsylvania. 2:00 p.m. their time.
U.T. Rio Grande Valley (3-3, 2-2) at Incarnate Word (2-4, 1-2), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+ from Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium in San Antonio. Kathy Taylor appreciates the proper naming.
Gordon, here is the lineup of games for the Ivy League this weekend. Big game Friday night with Columbia at Penn. Saturday, Harvard hosts Holy Cross, on ESPN+ (12:00 noon CDT).
The University of Florida
Florida traces its origins to 1853 and the founding of East Florida Seminary, and its main precursor was Florida Agricultural College, a Morrill Act land-grant college established in 1884. Was surprised to learn that they were the aggie school in Florida. But UF has gotten over it. Very impressive academically, very much on par with The University of Texas.
Academic Rankings |
||
National |
||
Texas |
Florida |
|
| Forbes | 46 | 25 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 30 (#7 public) | 30 |
| WSJ/College Pulse | 49 | 15 |
Global |
||
| ARWU | 49 | 101-150 |
| QS | 72 | 212 |
| THE | 50 | 130 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 56 | 109 |
Famous alumni include the Honorable Marco Rubio, Joe Scarborough, Emmitt Smith, Faye Dunaway, and Erin Andrews. Two winners of the Nobel Prize: Robert H. Grubbs, in Chemistry, and Marshall Warren Nirenberg in Physiology or Medicine. Tim Tebow. Ten U.S. Senators, 11 governors, 9 astronauts.
Like Texas, Florida has sent a lot of athletes to the Olympics, especially swimming.
Florida might be most famous for Gatorade, invented in Gainesville in 1965 by Dr. Robert Cade, a professor at UF’s medical school. Where did Dr. Cade get his education that would lead to this invention? The San Antonian, after graduating from Brackenridge High School in May of 1945 and then serving in the Navy, enrolled at The University of Texas. He completed all four years of courses in two years and graduated in 1950. From Austin, he went to Dallas and attended the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School, graduating in 1954. What Starts Here Changes the World.
Washington & Lee University
The Generals beat No. 23 Randolph-Macon College 20-17 with a 7:49 game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. W&L rushed for 304 yards, led by QB Ty Collins with 109 and 2 scores and Ryan Clemens who had 100 yards and a touchdown. Recap here.
I have issues with Instagram reels. Hopefully this works. Great story about W&L football.
This weekend the Generals have a road trip to Bridgewater to play the Eagles. W&L leads the series 33-22. Bridgewater is 1-4 and 1-1 in ODAC play, with a 19-14 win over Guilford and a 46-6 loss to Randolph-Macon.
Juan Heisman Tailgate
We are back for a three-game homestand. This Saturday is the easy one. Breakfast tacos, cold beer, bloody marys with Tito’s Handmade Vodka, and bloody marias for those who like a little tequila kick with that chorizo, egg, and cheese taco. Special thanks to Hunter Wilcox for his great work in this interim.
Late Breaking News
A couple of big stories this week, to be addressed next week. The University and the City of Austin have reached a deal to save Lions Municipal Golf Course. Great news.
FBS is moving a 24-team playoff. Lots to work through there.
Week Six in the Southeastern Conference
Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 6, Missouri 27. My comment last week on the 3.5 point line was that “Somebody knows something.” It wasn’t Mike Elko (in more ways than one). Tigers’ Jamal Roberts ran for 222 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries. Marcel Reed was a miserable 19/39 for 189 yards and 2 interceptions, was sacked three times, and was minus 18 yards for the game. A QBR of 18.2. KJ Edwards led the Aggies with 20 yards on 6 carries, as Texas Agricultural & Mechanical netted 27 yards rushing.
South Carolina 38, No. 16 Florida 19. Gamecock’s quarterback LaNorris Sellers had a day in the Swamp: 279 yards passing, four touchdown passes, and another score on the ground. The teams were actually pretty even statistically, except that the Gators turned the ball over 3 times, and the Gamecocks were clean. Funny how that works. And how it turns projections on their head. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gave Florida a 73% chance of winning. And the Gators were favored by 11.5, total was 59.5.
No. 9 Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 17. Rebels rebounded from the Florida loss by dropping the hammer on the Dores. Trinidad Chambliss had the good game I was hoping for. Trinidad threw for 213 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another. 196 yards rushing for Ole Miss. The Rebels led 42-3 at halftime and turned four Vanderbilt turnovers into 24 points. Hotty Toddy!
Tennessee 24. Arkansas 17. The piggies put up a fight. DeSean Bishop’s 8-yard touchdown run with 1:57 left finished a 94-yard drive and got the Volunteers out of FayetteNam with a win. Bishop finished with 138 yards on 19 carries. George MacIntyre threw for 247 yards and a touchdown, with two interceptions.
No. 10 Louisiana State 34, Kentucky 35. A second consecutive 35-34 overtime win, and again they went for two to finish it. CJ Baxter scored from a yard out in overtime, and Kenny Minchey ran in the winning conversion. Baxter rushed for 123 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, including a 77 yard scamper. Tigers had two turnovers and a punt returned for a touchdown. Hmmm. Turnovers and special teams mistakes…. Anyway, quite a night in Bluegrass Country.
No. 2 Georgia 20, No. 6 Alabama 17. A good old-fashioned SEC slugfest in Tuscaloosa. Peyton Woodring’s 23-yard field goal with 5:25 left put the Bulldogs ahead for good. Georgia outgained Alabama 455-346, and the Bulldog defense sacked Keelon Russell four times. Georgia goes to 6-0, 4-0 in the SEC and with the Texas loss took over the top spot in both polls, deservedly.
Week Six – Service Academies
Tulane 17, Army 20. Dawson Jones hit a 25-yard field goal as time expired to win it for the Black Knights at Michie Stadium. Army goes to 3-2. A good win.
Tulsa 26, Navy 34. I am glad to be wrong on this one. Jackson Gutierrez rushed for 232 yards and three touchdowns and threw for another score. Navy overcame four turnovers and a 12-point second-half deficit. Intrepid. Go Navy!
Air Force 28, Northern Illinois 7. The Falcons complete the weekend sweep for the academies.
Top 25 – Week Six
Friday
No. 20 Iowa 41, Washington 24. The Hawkeyes went to Seattle and put 41 on the Huskies in the upset. Iowa led 20-0 in the second quarter. Not the usual Iowa score. Washington out-punted Iowa 7 to 4.
Iowa State 10, No. 8 Brigham Young 24. Cougars stay unbeaten at 5-0 and cover the 10½ spread.
Saturday
No. 7 Indiana 20, Nebraska 17. The Cornhuskers led 17-6 in the fourth quarter, but couldn’t finish it. Indiana stays unbeaten at 6-0. Nebraska covered.
Central Florida 28, No. 18 Oklahoma State 42. Mestemaker was 19/28 for 304 yards and a score, also ran for a touchdown. Eric Morris and his Cowboys keep winning. Pokes go to 4-1, 2-0 in the Big XII, and cover the 10½ line.
North Carolina 21, No. 25 Pittsburgh 17. I whiffed on Pitt again, this time with the pick. The Panthers suffer their first loss, falling to 5-1.
Stanford 7, No. 3 Notre Dame 58. So the 5 touchdown line was not a challenge for the Irish, who also covered that the total (54.5). The Legends Trophy stays in South Bend.
No. 21 UCLA 17, No. 13 Oregon 15. Well, the Bruins are acting like they are good because they are. And Oregon isn’t. UCLA goes to 5-0 and holds the Ducks to one conversion on 12 third downs. Picked the cover, missed the winner.
No. 22 Houston 35, Kansas State 16. Weigman threw for 242 yards and 4 touchdowns, QBR of 96.3.
Maryland 16, No. 5 Ohio State 45. Terps cover.
No. 19 Southern Cal 31, Penn State 23. The Trojans win the White Out game in Happy Valley. Penn State falls to 3-3, 0-3 in Big Ten play. Tis a pity. Fight on. ✌🏼
Kansas 24, No. 12 Utah 41.
No. 23 Boise State 38, Fresno State 31. Broncos win the Battle for the Milk Can with more than 500 yards of offense.
Week Six – Other Games of Interest
U.T. San Antonio hosted South Florida in San Antonio. A good game, as the Roadrunners scored with 15 seconds left to take a 31-24 lead. UTSA rushed for 277 yards. Birds Up!
Florida State 20, Louisville 44.
Wyoming 16, San Jose State 13. The Cowboys tied it with a fourth quarter touchdown drive that took 18 plays and went 75 yards, then won it in overtime. A tough one for the Spartans.
Miami 20, Massachusetts 19. Way too close. RedHawks stopped a two point conversion late in the game to get the narrow win.
Virginia Tech 20, California 25. A nice win for the Golden Bears. Ashten Emory scored from 2 yards out with 18 seconds left to finish a 75-yard drive. Cal gets back to 3-3.
UAB 13, Memphis 38. The Tigers scored 28 unanswered points after halftime to reclaim the Battle for the Bones Trophy. Memphis goes to 5-1.
Nevada 30, UTEP 13. Another hard night for the Miners, who managed just 79 yards rushing and fall to 1-5.
Syracuse 25, Virginia 28. Cavaliers rallied back from a 10-point halftime deficit, scoring three touchdowns in the final 17 minutes.
Slippery Rock ran for 458 yards as they crushed Seton Hill 59-14 (yes, for those who asked, Seton Hill, not Seton Hall). JayJay Jordan had 14 carries for 206 yards and three touchdowns. Da’One Owens (The Rock’s QB) had 9 rushes for 104 yards and a score, plus 227 yards passing and 3 TDs. Da’One and JayJay make for quite a 1-2 punch.
No. 25 SE Louisiana 3, U.T. Rio Grande Valley 13. The Vaqueros get their first win over a ranked opponent.
The Polls
ESPN’s FPI
Bill Connelly’s SP+
Some funky stuff when Texas loses and moves up 2. But it is volatile. Look at Ole Miss and Okie State.
Massey Rating & Composite
Statistician Kenneth Massey uses “the mathematical theory of least squares to solve a massive system of equations that processes all game outcomes simultaneously. Rather than looking at box score statistics like rushing yards or turnovers, it only tracks three raw inputs: the final score, the game location, and the date.” The three pillars are Outcome, Margin of Victory, and Strength of Schedule.
Massey Rating: Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana, Ohio State, Alabama, Utah, Miami (FL), Texas, Texas Tech, Ole Miss.
| Team | Rec | Rat | Pwr | Off | Def | HFA | SoS | SSF | EW | EL |
| Texas | 4-1 | 8
8.79 |
+
77.47 |
16
64.16 |
5
41.23 |
2.33 | 2
68.19 |
2
68.41 |
5.04 | 1.96 |
| Florida | 4-2 | 28
8.12 |
25
68.46 |
15
64.23 |
48
32.16 |
2.39 | 16
62.42 |
6
67.06 |
2.52 | 3.48 |
Rat: Rating overall strength
Pwr: Power rating
Off: Offensive power to score
Def: Defensive power to prevent opponent from scoring
HFA: Home Field Advantage
SoS: Strength of Schedule – played games only
SSF: Strength of Schedule – including future games
EW: Expected Wins for remainder of schedule
EL: Expected Losses for remainder of schedule
Massey Composite: Notre Dame, Georgia, Alabama, Miami (FL), Indiana, Texas, Ohio State, UCLA, Utah, Texas Tech.
Breakthrough T1D
Type 1 diabetes (which used to be called juvenile diabetes) is a pernicious disease that impacts the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans and their families. It is a life-changing diagnosis. It is a lifetime of needles and monitoring and other health risks. Lots of great treatments, but no cure. Breakthrough T1D (formerly the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation) provides tremendous support to diabetics and their families as it works tirelessly to fund a cure and advocates for funding and research.
T1D is a big part of our family. My son-in-law Parker Fleming is T1D. My daughter Mary Elizabeth worked for JDRF in DC. Kathy and I are supporters of Breakthrough T1D, and we pray for that cure.
Parker is on the Austin Chapter Board and is chairing this year’s walk, one of the organization’s important fundraisers. I ask that you join us in supporting Parker and Mary Elizabeth and the search for a cure. Thanks.
Breakthrough T1D Walk, Austin: Parker’s Power Walkers – BreakthroughT1D Walk
PFF
Power Rankings:
PEAR Ratings
Those of you who were in the Beta test group for the Texas Baseball version of the Dispatch this past spring may recall the PEAR Ratings. I found them interesting and insightful. The guy who does this actually started with college football.
Ratings:
Florida is 25th.
FBS Football Ratings | PEARatings
Stats: FBS Football Statistics | PEARatings
CFP Resume Rankings
This guy does CFP resume rankings. You have to look closely, as Texas is in the very top right hand corner. Home | Cfpresumerankings
Texas is buried behind Indiana.
Music
The Band, The Weight. From The Last Waltz
Playing for Change, The Weight
Jim Nicar
Did you know?
October 25, 1924: The very last U.T. Austin football game at the original Clark Field (UT’s first athletic field) was 7-7 tie against the University of Florida. The Longhorns moved to the new Texas Memorial Stadium for the last two home games of the season.
Hawley, I think of the Big Dog every time Clark Field comes up.
From Jim’s October 13, 2026 post on X.
Picture of the Week
From JType’s October 14, 2026 post on Instagram.
On X: @tctayloratx
On LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/tctatx
On Instagram: @tctayloratx
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You can contact me by mail:
Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371