Ole Miss Rebels in Austin – Florida Recap – Horns Up Always 🤘🏼

No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 19 Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns welcome the Ole Miss Rebels to Austin for the fourth time and the first since 2013.  The game kicks off on Campbell-Williams Field in Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium at 6:30 p.m. and will be broadcast on ABC with the worldwide leader’s A Team:  Chris Fowler with the play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit with color and commentary, and Holly Rowe reporting from the sidelines.  Ole Miss is 5-1 overall and 2-1 in the SEC, their only loss being the upset in Gainesville at the hands of the Gators.  Texas is 4-2 overall and 1-2 in SEC play.  Ole Miss is tied for second in the Southeastern Conference with Tennessee.  Texas is tied for 11th place with the Land Thieves.

The game can be heard around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns Craig Way, joined by Roger Wallace in the booth and by Will Matthews on the sidelines.  Listen in Austin on the Flagship, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM.  In McAllen on KVNS 1700 AM.  In Victoria on KLUB 104.9 FM.  And listen in San Angelo and the Concho Valley with Mr. McLaughlin on KKSA 1260 AM.   Dr. Rubén Pizarro-Silva and Jesus Mendoza with the call in Spanish on certain Longhorn Radio Network affiliates and streaming on the Texas Longhorn App and at https://texas.leanplayer.com/ (where you can also find Craig Way and that broadcast).

This game has so many great story lines because of the Manning connections.  Archie Manning was, almost without question, the greatest football player ever to put on an Ole Miss uniform (his was No. 18).  Uncle Eli is not far behind with his success in the NFL. Arch’s father Cooper graduated from Ole Miss in 1996.  If you go to the Ole Miss campus, you will see the speed limit signs – 18 mph, in honor of Archie.  A few roads are 10 mph, for Eli. Deep family ties between New Orleans and Ole Miss, but when it came time for Arch to choose a college, he chose Texas.  As did his younger brother Heid.  If you are watching on television, I expect that Chris and Kirk will mention this more than once.

The Texas Longhorns’ season is on the line.  I said last week that the most important thing about the Florida game was “that how Texas plays this Saturday will show this team’s strength and resilience and how it responds after the disappointing loss in Dallas to the Land Thieves.”  Sadly, that query was answered with an inept offense and a second consecutive 24-27 loss, the result of blowing a 17-3 lead held by the Horns late in the first half and then getting outscored 24-7 by a Gator team quarterbacked by their freshman back-up in his first career start.  The sad recap is below.  The upsets last week leave the SEC with no undefeated teams, which keeps the door of hope open for the Horns.  Beat Ole Miss, get to 2-2 in conference, and then there is still a path to the SEC Championship Game.  Get to Atlanta, and we are probably still in the College Football Playoffs.

Texas opened a while back as a 9½ point favorite over Ole Miss.  I think Sunday it was Texas minus 3½, which is basically pick-em (3 points for home field).  Tuesday, the money lines were Texas minus 162, Ole Miss plus 136.  Early Friday morning, Texas is still favored by 3.5, and the money lines haven’t moved.  It will be interesting to check about five o’clock Saturday.

Texas Longhorns 24, Florida Gators 27

If you thought last week was a painful struggle, this week has been even worse.  Again, can’t imagine how hard this is on the players.  Another stunning loss, blowing another double-digit lead.  Dismal offensive results and stats.  All on a beautiful day and a packed Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium – 103,989 football fans.  Credit to Florida, as they had quite a good showing.  Review of the game below.

Crazy stats from Saturday:  first time since 1996 that Alabama, Georgia, and Texas lost on the same day; first time since 1987 that Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Texas lost on the same day.  First time ever that five of the top seven teams lost on the same day.  And this sad addition to college football history:  Texas is the first team since Michigan State in 1961 (a year before the Cuban missile crisis) to enter a game ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and then lose that game and its next game to unranked opponents.  Before that it was the Pitt Panthers in 1939 (shortly after Germany invaded Poland).

College Football This Weekend

After last weekend’s incredible lineup of matchups, this weekend seems pretty tame.  Only two top 25 matchups, and Ole Miss at Texas is one of them.  However, one thing this season and especially last Saturday has reminded us, upsets are coming and every Saturday is entertaining.

• Pittsburgh at No. 1 Miami (Florida), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN. Go Panthers.
• 6 Indiana at Michigan, 11:00 a.m. on FOX from the Big House.
• 18 Louisiana State at Auburn, 11:00 a.m. on ABC. Season on the line for Lane Kiffin and his Tigers.  Alex Golesh and his Tigers coming off not just his biggest win in his head coaching career, but one of the biggest upset wins of the season.
• Texas Agricultural & Mechanical at No. 13 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. on ABC.
• 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah, 9:15 p.m. on ESPN. Good late night game.  Praying that I will be home and in a good mood for the second half.

College Football Last Weekend

It was a huge and historic day for college football.

• Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia between the Hedges, 27-24. Stunning game with a great storyline around the Auburn placekicker (below).
• 4 Ohio State beat No. 5 Indiana 19-15.
• 6 Alabama lost at No. 14 Tennessee, 26-10.
• 15 Kentucky beat the Land Thieves, 21-13.
• 11 Utah beat Colorado 27-24.
• Virginia lost to No. 24 Southern Methodist, 23-13. Lottie and Talley had fun.
• 2 Notre Dame lost a heartbreaker at No. 8 Brigham Young, 28-24. Big XII admitted that the officials screwed up and the Irish had time for one more play.  How does that happen in 2026?  Inexcusable.
• 18 Oklahoma State 32, No. 20 Houston 35.

2026 Ole Miss Rebels

Offense

Quarterback

Trinidad Chambliss (No. 6, 6′0″, 210 pounds, fifth year+, from Grand Rapids, Michigan).  Six games, all starts.   Currently third best odds to win the Heisman at +650 to +700, behind Jeremiah Smith and Darian Mensah.  Chambliss wasn’t in the top 6 to start the season (CJ Carr +700, Arch Manning +800).  Chambliss is having a Heisman season:  142/210 (67.6%) for 1,676 yards and 14 touchdowns with four interceptions; 279.3 yards per game (second in the SEC) and a 152.85 passer rating; 12th in QBR at 83.5.  Trinidad has 36 carries for 127 yards (3.5 per carry) and six touchdowns.  Total offense: 1,803 yards, averaging 300.5 per game.  He nearly carried them to the natty last year, and looks like he can take them deep this year.

Running Backs

Kewan Lacy (No. 5, 5′11″, 205 pounds, junior from Lancaster HS, outside of Dallas, transfer from Missouri).  Five games (missed Florida), all starts. 62 carries for 352 yards (5.7 per carry), five touchdowns, and a long of 28; 70.4 yards per game played. Receiving: nine catches for 27 yards.

Makhi Frazier (No. 25, 5′10″, 210 pounds, junior from McKinney, Texas, transfer from Michigan State).  45 carries for 254 yards (5.6 per carry), no touchdowns, and a long of 22; 50.8 yards per game played.  Did not play against LSU.

Wide Receivers

Deuce Alexander (No. 1, 6′0″, 180 pounds, senior from Douglasville, Georgia).  Six games, all starts. Receiving: 35 catches for 523 yards (14.9 per catch), five touchdowns, and a long of 62; 87.2 yards per game.  Fifth in yards per game in the SEC, tied for 2nd with his five touchdowns. Also has two rushes for 20 yards and five punt returns for 46 yards.

Traylon Ray (No. 7, 6′2″, 205 pounds, senior from Tallahassee).  20 catches for 276 yards (13.8 per catch), one touchdown, and a long of 36; 46.0 yards per game. Also has six kickoff returns for 111 yards.

Horatio Fields (No. 11, 6′2″, 205 pounds, fifth year+ from Douglasville, Georgia).  19 catches for 234 yards (12.3 per catch), two touchdowns, and a long of 31; 39.0 yards per game. Also caught a two-point conversion at Florida.

Caleb Cunningham (No. 3, 6′1″, 215 pounds, sophomore from Weir, Mississippi).  13 catches for 176 yards (13.5 per catch), one touchdown, and a long of 25; 29.3 yards per game.

Tight ends

Caleb Odom (No. 4, 6′5″, 245 pounds, junior from Carrollton, Georgia).  Third on the team in receiving yards, behind Alexander and Ray.  21 catches for 267 yards (12.7 per catch), two touchdowns, and a long of 35; 53.4 yards per game played.

Luke Hasz (No. 9, 6′2″, 240 pounds, senior from Bixby, Oklahoma).  Nine catches for 53 yards (5.9 per catch), no touchdowns, and a long of 11.

Offensive Line

Best guess for Saturday:

• Left tackle: Terez Davis (No. 55, 6′4″, 310 pounds, Washington, D.C.). (questionable)
• Left guard: Delano Townsend (No. 51, 6′4″, 325 pounds, Flint, Michigan).
• Center: Brycen Sanders (No. 62, 6′5″, 310 pounds, Chattanooga, Tennessee). (questionable)
• Right guard: Patrick Kutas (No. 75, 6′6″, 315 pounds, Memphis).
• Right tackle: Connor Howes (No. 65, 6′6″, 315 pounds, Saint Cloud, Florida).  OR Tommy Kinsler IV (No. 61, 6′6″, 355 pounds, Ocala, Florida).

Defense

If there is a glimmer of hope for the Horns, it is that Ole Miss is ranked 16th in the SEC in total defense; 16th in rushing defense; 12th in pass defense; and 10th in scoring defense. Full stats below, but at least Texas is pretty much top quartile in the conference.  As you will see from a wild stat below, holding the Rebels to 21 points or less is important.

Linebackers

Luke Ferrelli (No. 12, 6′3″, 230 pounds, junior from San Diego, California).  Team-leading 39 tackles (20 solo, 19 assists), 2.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, one pass breakup, and two quarterback hurries in six games.

Keaton Thomas (No. 11, 6′1″, 235 pounds, fifth-year from Jacksonville, Florida). 37 tackles (13 solo, 24 assists), 2.5 tackles for loss, half a sack, one pass breakup, and three quarterback hurries in six games.

Tah’j Butler (No. 49, 6′1″, 235 pounds, junior from New Orleans, Louisiana). 33 tackles (20 solo, 13 assists), two tackles for loss, one pass breakup, and two quarterback hurries in six games.

Suntarine Perkins (No. 4, 6′1″, 220 pounds, senior LB/edge from Raleigh, Mississippi). 20 tackles (10 solo, 10 assists), three tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, one pass breakup, and three quarterback hurries in six games. Returned a fumble five yards for a touchdown at Vanderbilt.

Defensive Backs

Sharif Denson (No. 7, 5′11″, 195 pounds, senior S from Jacksonville, Florida). 30 tackles (23 solo, seven assists), two tackles for loss, one pass breakup, and one quarterback hurry in four games. Has started each of the last four games after missing the first two.

Jaylon Braxton (No. 2, 5′11″, 190 pounds, senior CB from Frisco, Texas). 23 tackles (11 solo, 12 assists), one tackle for loss, one interception, a team-leading four pass breakups, and two quarterback hurries in six games. His five passes defended lead the Rebs.

Nick Cull (No. 29, 5′11″, 175 pounds, fifth-year S from Donalsonville, Georgia). Eight tackles (seven solo, one assist), one tackle for loss, a team-leading two interceptions for 38 return yards, and one pass breakup in six games. His interceptions were against Charlotte and Vanderbilt.

Antonio Kite (No. 8, 6′0″, 190 pounds, fifth-year CB from Anniston, Alabama [also the hometown of Reverend H. Bowen Woodruff]). 19 tackles (13 solo, six assists), one interception, and one pass breakup in five games.

Line

Blake Purchase (No. 3, 6′3″, 245 pounds, senior DE/edge from Green Valley Ranch, Colorado). 23 tackles (12 solo, 11 assists), a team-leading 6.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks, one pass breakup, two quarterback hurries, and one forced fumble in six games.

Will Echoles (No. 52, 6′3″, 315 pounds, junior DT from Houston, Mississippi). 18 tackles (six solo, 12 assists), four tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, two pass breakups, and two quarterback hurries in six games. Second on the team in tackles for loss.

Landon Barnes (No. 15, 6′4″, 245 pounds, freshman DE from Baton Rouge, Louisiana).  Three tackles, one interception returned three yards, and two quarterback hurries in four games.

The 2026 Ole Miss Season:

Game 1:  The Rebels opened the season ranked 9th in the AP and played No. 24 Louisville Cardinals in the Liberty Mutual Music City Kickoff game in Nashville.  It was a wildly entertaining game, which Ole Miss won 41-38 (one of my very favorite scores).  Rebels led 10-6 at half, and then Louisville scored 32 second half points and Ole Miss scored 31, the last 3 being the game winning 48-yard field goal by Lucas Carneiro as time expired.  Trinidad Chambliss was 21/36 for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 interception; he added 60 yards and a score on the ground.  Kewan Lacy had 17 carries for 61 yards and a touchdown.  Deuce Alexander had 5 catches for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, one of which went for 62 yards. Caleb Odom had 3 receptions for 3 yards and a score.  Jaylon Braxton and Keaton Thomas led the Rebs with 8 tackles each.  Ole Miss had 3 sacks and 8 tackles for loss. Louisville threw for 307 yards and rushed for 162 yards.  Cardinal receivers had some big catches – 62 yards (TD), 54 yards (TD), 32 yards, and Lincoln Kienholz, the Louisville quarterback, had a 41-yard run.

Game 2:  Ole Miss had the UNC Charlotte 49ers in Oxford and soundly beat them 41-9.  Chambliss was 23/26 for 225 yards and 2 scores.  Deuce Alexander had 8 catches for 76 yards.  Horatio Fields had 4 receptions for 66 yards and a score.  Deuce Knight played some QB and had a pick and a rushing touchdown.  Yes, Ole Miss has a pair of deuces.  Johntay Cook II had 2 catches and a touchdown.  Kewan Lacy had 13 carries for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Ole Miss defense held the 49ers to 179 yards passing, but they rushed for 143.  Rebs had 1 sack and 6 TFL.

Game 3:  No. 8 Ole Miss 32, No. 7 Louisiana State 24.  One of the most anticipated games of the year, not because of the matchup, per se, but because of Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford after deserting his team and fellow coaches last season to go to Baton Rouge.  For those who don’t know, the Ole Miss-Louisiana State rivalry is a big one, which started in 1894 but was particularly intense in the 1950’s and 60’s when the Rebels and Tigers were highly competitive on the national stage.  This year, it was No. 7 Louisiana State coached by the hated Lane Kiffin and No. 8 Ole Miss.  The Rebels took the 32-24 lead with about 6 minutes to play after Golding went for 2.  On the ensuing Tiger possession, on 4th & 6 from the Ole Miss 6, Braxton intercepted Leavitt’s pass in the end zone with less than a minute to play.

Game 4:  No. 4 Ole Miss went to Gainesville to play No. 21 Florida.  The Rebels were 3.5 point underdogs.  Ole Miss got man-handled by Florida, 52-28.  One of my Ole Miss friend’s, Chris Bradford, said the Rebels were emotionally exhausted after the game with Kiffin and the Tigers.  They played that way. Didn’t help that Lacy was out.  Trinidad Chambliss was 25/34 for 298 yards and a score, 1 pick, and he ran for 44 yards and a touchdown.  Deuce Alexander had 7 catches for 134 yards and a score.  Rebels managed a single tackle for loss and didn’t get a sack.  Keaton Thomas had 11 tackles, Luke Ferrelli had 8.

Game 5:  No. 9 Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 17.  Chambliss was 20/30 for 213 yards, 1 pick, 3 touchdowns.  He ran for another.  Deuce Alexander had 5 catches for 74 yards and a touchdown.  Makhi Frazier had most of the work for the RBs, 13 carries for 73 yards.  Shekai Mills-Knight had 42 yards and a touchdown.  Lacy had 7 carries for 39 yards and 1 score.  Sharif Denson and Ferrelli led the Rebs on defense with 7 tackles each. Blake Purchase had 2 sacks and 3 TFL.  Ole Miss finished with 3 sacks and 8 tackles for loss plus two interceptions.  Commodores had 240 yards passing and 103 yards rushing.

Game 6:  No. 13 Missouri 3, No. 9 Ole Miss 31.  The Tigers went to Oxford with just one loss, a 31-24 defeat they suffered in Starkville.  They went 0 for Mississippi.  I think most thought this would be a more competitive game, but the Rebels kicked Missouri butt.  Lacy was back healthy, and he rushed for 122 yards on 16 carries.  Frazier tacked on 101 yards on 15 rushes, as Ole Miss rushed for 257 yards.  Chambliss was responsible for all of the Rebel touchdowns.  20/36 for 241 yards and 3 passing touchdowns, added another on the ground.  He completed passes to nine different Rebels, including touchdown passes to Cunningham, Fields, and Odom.  Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards and an interception.  Tigers only rushed for 39 yards.  [Note:  Before last week, Ole Miss run defense was pretty porous.]  Denson led the Rebels with 9 tackles, including a TFL.  Ole Miss had 2 sacks and 5 tackles for loss.

Pete Golding brings a very talented team to Austin.  We got our hands full.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Texas Longhorns

The statistics for the Texas offense are getting historically ugly.  I have the usual stats below, then some of the more offensive of the offensive stats.  On the upside, the advanced analytics still have Texas fairly highly rated overall, thanks in most cases to the defense.  I translate that as the talent is there, the execution is missing.

The Statistics

Offense

Statistic	Texas	Ole Miss
Rushing Offense	#102, #13 – 136.00 ypg	#72, #12 – 153.83 ypg
Passing Offense	#74, #11 – 226.3 ypg	#13, #2 – 290.7 ypg
Total Offense	#93, #12 – 362.3 ypg	#36, #6 – 444.5 ypg
Scoring Offense	#64, #11 – 30.2 ppg	#20, #6 – 37.5 ppg
First Downs	#82, #13 – 20.2/game	#14, #2 – 24.7/game
Sacks Allowed	#111, #11 – 17.0, 101 yards	#10, #1 – 5.0, 34 yards
Tackles for Loss Allowed	#127, #16 – 46.0, 199 yards	#12, #1 – 19.0, 69 yards
Third Down Conversions	#63, #11 – 41.67%	#24, #3 – 47.89%
Fourth Down Conversions	#64, #11 – 54.55% (6/11)	#45, #9 – 60.00% (3/5)
Touchdowns	#77, #12 – 22 total, 15 RZ	#31, #7 – 28 total, 21 RZ
Red Zone Attempts	#70, #11 – 23	#63, #9 – 24
Red Zone Offense ρ	#27, #6 – 91.30% / 65.22%	#1, #1 – 100.00% / 87.50%
Long Run Plays	#78, #11 – 29/10, 5/20, 2/30, 1/40	#78, #11 – 29/10, 6/20, 1/30, 0/40
Long Pass Plays	#74, #13 – 55/10, 14/20, 8/30, 6/40	#32, #6 – 67/10, 21/20, 12/30, 3/40
Long Punt Returns	#10, #1 – 3/20, 1/30, 1/40	#61, #9 – 1/20, 0/30, 0/40

^ρ The first number is red zone scoring percentage, the second is touchdowns

Important note:  Not only is Ole Miss the best in the country in red zone offense, within that statistical set, they are also best in scoring touchdowns in the red zone at 87.5%.  Texas is 60th in red zone touchdowns.

Defense

Statistic	Texas	Ole Miss
Rushing Defense	#28, #5 – 106.33 ypg	#90, #16 – 153.50 ypg
Passing Defense	#13, #4 – 166.2 ypg (61.6%)	#104, #12 – 236.5 ypg (61.7%)
Total Defense	#12, #3 – 272.5 ypg	#108, #16 – 390.0 ypg
Scoring Defense	#29, #5 – 17.8 ppg	#72, #10 – 23.8 ppg
First Downs Allowed	#32, #7 – 17.2/game	#86, #11 – 19.8/game
Sacks	#10, #5 – 19.0, 126 yards	#90, #14 – 11.0, 60 yards
Tackles for Loss	#17, #4 – 46.0, 187 yards	#56, #9 – 36.0, 116 yards
Third Down Conversions	#33, #6 – 33.33%	#117, #14 – 43.96%
Fourth Down Conversions	#55, #7 – 50.00% (5/10)	#16, #3 – 30.00% (3/10)
Red Zone Attempts	#19, #4 – 16	#82, #12 – 23
Red Zone Defense ρ	#57, #6 – 81.25% / 43.75%	#38, #5 – 78.26% / 47.83%
Long Run Plays Allowed	#23, #4 – 19/10, 3/20, 2/30, 1/40	#38, #7 – 22/10, 9/20, 6/30, 4/40
Long Pass Plays Allowed	#13, #2 – 41/10, 9/20, 4/30, 3/40	#76, #10 – 53/10, 24/20, 8/30, 3/40

^ρ The first number is opponent red zone scoring percentage, the second is touchdowns

Special Teams

Statistic	Texas	Ole Miss
Long Punt Returns	#10, #1 – 3/20, 1/30, 1/40	#61, #9 – 1/20, 0/30, 0/40
Punt Returns, TDs	#35, #5 – 12.80 yards avg, 32.0 ypg; 1 TD	#88, #12 – 7.83 yards avg, 7.8 ypg; 0 TDs
Long Punt Returns Allowed	#74, #12 – 1/20, 1/30, 1/40	#1, #1 – 0/20, 0/30, 0/40
Opponent Punt Returns, TDs	#113, #14 – 12.29 yards avg, 14.3 ypg; 2 TDs	#43, #7 – 5.50 yards avg, 3.7 ypg; 0 TDs

Other

Statistic	Texas	Ole Miss
Turnovers	#63, #4 – 8	#63, #4 – 8
Turnover Margin	#103, #12 – 5:8 (-3; -0.50/game)	#85, #10 – 7:8 (-1; -0.17/game)
Penaltiesπ	#22, #2 – 34, 326 yards	#94, #9 – 47, 383 yards
Penalty yards per game	#59, #8 – 5.7/g, 54.3 ypg	#95, #12 – 7.8/g, 63.8 ypg

^πBased on total number of penalties.

Match-up Comparison

Texas Offense	Ole Miss Defense
Rushing Offense – 136.00 ypg	153.50 ypg – Rushing Defense
Passing Offense – 226.3 ypg	236.5 ypg – Passing Defense
Total Offense – 362.3 ypg	390.0 ypg – Total Defense
Scoring Offense – 30.2 ppg	23.8 ppg – Scoring Defense
First Downs – 20.2/game	19.8/game – First Downs Allowed
3rd Down Offense – 41.67%	43.96% – 3rd Down Defense
4th Down Offense – 54.55%	30.00% – 4th Down Defense
Red Zone Offense – 91.30%/65.22%	78.26%/47.83% – Red Zone Defense
LRP – 29/10, 5/20, 2/30, 1/40	22/10, 9/20, 6/30, 4/40 – LRP Allowed
LPP – 55/10, 14/20, 8/30, 6/40	53/10, 24/20, 8/30, 3/40 – LPP Allowed

A remarkably even matchup between the Texas offense and the Ole Miss defense.

Texas Defense	Ole Miss Offense
Rushing Defense – 106.33 ypg	153.83 ypg – Rushing Offense
Passing Defense – 166.2 ypg	290.7 ypg – Passing Offense
Total Defense – 272.5 ypg	444.5 ypg – Total Offense
Scoring Defense – 17.8 ppg	37.5 ppg – Scoring Offense
First Downs Allowed – 17.2/game	24.7/game – First Downs
3rd Down Defense – 33.33%	47.89% – 3rd Down Offense
4th Down Defense – 50.00%	60.00% – 4th Down Offense
Red Zone Defense – 81.25%/43.75%	100.00%/87.50% – Red Zone Offense
LRP Allowed – 19/10, 3/20, 2/30, 1/40	29/10, 6/20, 1/30, 0/40 – LRP
LPP Allowed – 41/10, 9/20, 4/30, 3/40	67/10, 21/20, 12/30, 3/40 – LPP

These are some unfortunate numbers:

Texas Run Game
#102 Rushing Offense – 136.00 ypg
#120 Rushing avg– 3.64 yards per rush
#50 Rushing Attempts – 37.33 per game
#84 Rushing Touchdowns – 9
#79 – Runs 10+ yards (29)
#101 – Runs 20+ yards (5)
#100 – Runs 30+ yards (2)
#81 – Runs 40+ yards (1)

To put that in perspective, working backwards:  Texas State is first in runs of 40+ yards, with 10.  Four schools (Texas State, UCLA, Louisville, and James Madison) are tied for first with 11 runs over 30 yards.  Army leads the nation with 23 runs of 20+ yards. Now, admittedly, none of those teams are playing SEC defenses.  But Auburn is 5th in 20+ with 15.  Georgia is 8th with eight runs of 30+ yards.  So, the simple diagnosis is that Texas can’t run the ball very well, and certainly not for four quarters of a game.  I think we have decent running backs.  We have seen some very good runs.  But I think ultimately the issue in the run game is blocking.  Flood, who coaches the offensive line, and our extra special coach, Jeff Banks, who oversees tight ends in addition to special teams.

As for the four quarters, this from Evan Vieth with InsideTexas:

Texas offense stats per quarter for the last three games:

Q1: 8 PPG, 105 YPG

Q2: 6.7 PPG, 67 YPG

Q3: 1 PPG, 36 YPG

Q4: 7 PPG, 97 YPG

Total: 22.7 PPG, 305 YPG

35% of Texas’ offense comes from the 1st quarter

FEI Ratings

	FEI	OFEI	DFEI	SFEI – Adj
Texas	No. 11: 0.94	No. 33: 0.23	No. 2: 0.70	No. 44: 0.03
Ole Miss	No. 9: 0.99	No. 6: 0.60	No. 33: 0.28	No. 11:  0.10

Available Yards Percentage

	NAY	OAY	DAY
Texas	No. 34:  0.110	No. 85:  0.438	No. 6:  0.328
Ole Miss	No. 44:  0.072	No. 34:  0.550	No. 66:  0.478

Net points per drive (NPD)

	NPD	OPD	DPD
Texas	No. 27: 0.93	No. 69:  2.27	No. 9:  1.34
Ole Miss	No. 25:  1.13	No. 14:  3.35	No. 65:  2.22

Net Yards Per Play (NPP)

	NPP	OPP	DPP
Texas	No. 24:  1.14	No. 94:  5.40	No. 5:  4.25
Ole Miss	No. 34:  0.88	No. 38:  6.34	No. 52:  5.46

Possession Efficiency.  Possession Efficiency (PVE) is unadjusted scoring value calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions (NP) in FBS vs. FBS games.

	PVE	OVE	DVE	SVE
Texas	No. 33:  0.38	No. 77:  -0.11	No. 13:  0.53	No. 81: -0.03
Ole Miss	No. 21:  0.66	No. 17: 0.42	No. 61: 0.12	No. 22:  0.08

FEI Special Teams Ratings.  FEI Special Teams Ratings (SFEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team’s non-offensive and non-defensive units would expect to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.

	SFEI	SVE	FGE	PE	PRE	KE	KRE
Texas	No. 44:  0.03	No. 81: – 0.03	No. 31:  0.62	No. 133: – 0.37	No. 9: – 0.25	No. 78: – 0.02	No. 131: – 0.13
Ole Miss	No. 11:  0.10	No. 22: 0.08	No. 13: 0.84	No. 27:  0.15	No. 98: – 0.09	No. 15:  0.07	No. 83:  0.00

F+   F+ Ratings combine Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings. Overall team ratings (F+), offense ratings (OF+), defense ratings (DF+), and special teams ratings (SF+) represent each team and unit’s standard deviation above or below average.

BCF’s Game Projection.

Projected Winner	Projected Loser	PW	PM	PF	PA	PT
Texas	Ole Miss	.547	1.7	27.0	25.4	52.4

Hope!

PEARatings – Matchup

Next week (Halloween, the Mississippi State game) is the annual Juan Heisman Tailgate lamb and wine party.   If Texas scores 35 points and beats Ole Miss, in addition to all the great red wines that Kent Lance, Jason Damen, Jim Stone, and others will have at JHT, I am bringing Pol Roger.   Matthew Lee and Tavo, I will be expecting you both.

Parker Fleming’s Advanced Stats Preview:

Official Game Notes from The University:

https://texaslonghorns.com/documents/2026/10/19/08_-_Ole_Miss.pdf

Official Game Notes from The Flagship, for all my Hotty Toddy friends:

https://texaslonghorns.com/documents/2026/10/19/26OM_FBNotes_07Texas.pdf

Previews:

The Stampede, with Mack Brown, Vince Young, and Bob Ballou and joined by my friend Quan Cosby.  Nearly an hour and 20 minutes.

Josh Pate.

On3, JD Pickell.

CBS College Football

ESPN College Football, Greg McElroy

TCT Thoughts

So, last week I had a statistic that Steve Sarkisian’s record was 63-4 if the opponent scores less than 21 points.  Interesting stat, but not as interesting as the flipside:  if my research is correct, Sarkisian is 32-53 when the opponent scores more than 21 points.  At Texas, he is 16-19 when that happens.  So, my most important thought for the Ole Miss game: Hold Ole Miss to 21 points or less.  Sark is actually 3-0 when the other team scores exactly 21 points.  Muschamp, you know what you have to do.  I had my trusty AI assistant do some more research on this.  Fascinating, and I have it toward the end of this week’s edition.

That’s a tall order against Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebel offense which averages 444.5 yards and 37.5 points per game. And converts 48% of their third downs.  But you know what, I think the Longhorn defense can do it.  Going to require a strong, heroic effort, but as we know, the winning tradition is not entrusted to the weak and timid.  I am going to admit I think keeping the Rebels at 21 or under is going to be dang hard but keeping them at or under 30 points is achievable.  Colin Simmons being out is huge and bad for Texas.  So the onus is on Arch and offense to do what Texas has only been able to accomplish once this year – score 31 or more points.  Frankly, I think Texas has to score close to (or more than) 40 points to win.  C’mon Arch.  You can do it.

Longtime readers will know that I am a big believer in optimizing utilization of tight ends in the passing game.  Whether it is the tight end releasing off a block and getting that momentary opening before being picked up by a linebacker or defensive back, or playing the role of the hot receiver to give the quarterback a quick release in a blitz.  Or a good route for a fast big man down the middle of the field (think Gunnar Helm).

Anyway, Texas  completed 8 passes to tight ends in the first two games (4 each game, 45 yards against Texas State and 43 against Ohio State).  In our next four games, Texas has completed five passes to tight ends:  one in each of UTSA and Tennessee, three against Oklahoma, and none against Florida.  88 yards of offense in the first two games, 33 yards in the next four.  While this might not be a correlation (because the third down conversions were not catches by tight ends), in the first two games, Texas was 20/31 on third downs for 64.5%, and in the last four games Texas is 15/53 for 28.3%.  So I think perhaps Texas should work on getting the tight ends more involved in the passing game.  I will qualify that with the caution that Texas also has to solve the problem of the overload blitz.

A former Texas football player and friend does an insightful recap after each game.  He pointed out after the Florida loss the issue Texas is having with the overload blitz:  the defense overloads one side of the ball so that there are more pass rushers than blockers.  [To oversimplify:  think how often an offensive line will double-team a great pass rusher.  Flip that – one offensive lineman (or maybe a running back) trying to block 2.  Challenging.]  UTSA tested it and had some success.  Tennessee did it often (6 sacks, 10 TFL).  Venables had his Land Thieves in overload often, and while Manning was only sacked twice, the blitz contributed to the fatal interceptions.  Florida got the memo, and Arch was sacked five times, and the Gator defense recorded 11 TFL.  Sark, Flood, Banks, and Arch and the offense need to figure out some way to beat the overload blitz.  Hell, Florida blitzed nearly 60% of the time – Texas has to beat the blitz, period.

Texas ran fifty (50) offensive plays against Florida.  Eleven of them went for negative yardage.  When 22% of the plays are going backwards, that offense is going to struggle to make first downs and score points.  As has been pointed out often, the Longhorns are not very good on third downs, and that is particularly true when it is third and long.  As weak as Texas has been at third down conversions, the Rebels’ third down defense is just a little worse:  117th in the nation, allowing opponents to convert at a 43.96% clip.

As has been the case all season, knowing the strengths and weaknesses of this Texas offense, one of the biggest keys will be not getting behind the chains.  Third and long is kryptonite, and we just can’t seem to find the antidote.  The line has to block better, Arch has to get rid of the ball more quickly (he needs a hot release receiver every play and he needs to find him), and somehow the other 10 guys on the field need to rise up, rally around the quarterback, and play the way we have, in moments, played.

Texas has to be better on offense in the second half.  Look at the stats.  Sark and the rest of the offensive coaches need to do better adjusting to the opposing team’s adjustments.  This is an opportunity to do that, because Ole Miss has been susceptible.

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Ole Miss	38	92	29	66	225
Opponents	19	17	59	48	143
Ole Miss margin	+19	+75	−30	+18	+82

Of course this also suggests that Golding’s offensive brain trust is able to make great in game adjustments, with that second quarter point differential.

The splits for Texas:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Texas	48	47	27	59	181
Opponents	16	34	23	34	107
Texas margin	+32	+13	+4	+25	+74

Those look better than you might expect. However, if you take out the Texas State game, Texas only has six points in the third quarter all season.  Texas has not found the end zone in the third quarter of a game since September 5th.  That must be remedied to beat Ole Miss.

The other side of the ball is going to be tough.  Trinidad Chambliss is the best quarterback we will have played this season.  We have to do that without our great No. 1, Colin Simmons.  The defense is coming off their worst game of the season.  Texas will not get away with defensive breakdowns and open Rebels running wild.  Chambliss will find them and get the ball out quickly.  He is athletic, and if the pass isn’t there, he is very capable of pulling it down and getting positive yardage.  Ole Miss is good up front and Trinidad doesn’t get sacked much.  10th in the nation in sacks allowed, 12th in tackles for loss allowed, and first in the SEC in both categories.  Defensively, getting pressure has been a strength (thanks in large part to Simmons, who was usually either applying the pressure or drawing two blockers).  Muschamp needs to figure out how to have success in pressuring Chambliss.  The Ole Miss air attack is complemented by an excellent rush game led by two Texans, Kewan Lacy and Makhi Frazier.  To complicate it for Texas, Chambliss and Ole Miss can run tempo well, which limits our ability to rotate the defensive linemen and keep them fresh.

Biles is going to have play one heckuva game, Justin Cryer too.  McDonald and the rest of the secondary have to keep the Rebels in front of them.  Limit big plays.

Texas can win this.  Expect big things from the defense.

Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24

Before I dive into some thoughts about the game, one disclaimer.  The number of podcast episodes, YouTube videos, and social media posts which I have seen, which have been sent to me, and which continue to fill my social media feed thanks to the efficient algorithms of Mr. Zuckerberg and Mr. Musk, and that are focused solely on whether the Texas offensive woes are to be blamed upon Steve Sarkisian, Arch Manning, both, or maybe the offensive line, is overwhelming.  Monday and Tuesday, I probably engaged with several of those, and it was proof positive of the old East Texas adage “opinions are like belly buttons, everybody’s got one.”  And like belly buttons, some of them were really ugly.  So this week’s edition will not delve into the allocation of responsibility for the problems of the Longhorns offense.  My thought about this is that there is no single person to blame, but there is one single person who can fix it.   I firmly want him to succeed in that effort, and I’m pulling for Sark, the other coaches, and the whole team.  I didn’t predict that Texas would score 42 points against Florida because I doubted Sarkisian and Arch and this team. To the contrary, it was my belief, then and now, in their abilities and my fervent hope that they would break out of the slump that fueled that prediction.  I think if Texas takes that 17-3 lead to the locker room at half, Texas wins, and Texas very well ends up with a score close to my prediction.  Didn’t happen, but the sun came up, and I am back writing about Texas football and loving my Longhorns.

I sometimes decide to add to my pain by looking at actual results versus pre-game statistics.  Not a single metric or projection suggested that Texas would lose that game.  ESPN had Texas at 87.5% win probability.  Fremeau had Texas at 83.2% win probability

Statistic	Texas Offense	Florida’s Defense
Rushing	99 yards	#46, #9 – 124.33 ypg
Passing	173 yards (70%)	#131, #16 – 268.7 ypg (64.9%)
Total	272 yards	#109, #16 – 393.0 ypg
Scoring	24 points	#113, #15 – 29.0 ppg
First Downs	13	#113, #15 – 21.5/game
Sacks	5	#14, #5 – 17, 70 yds, 2.83/g
Tackles for Loss	11	#14, #4 – 42, 127, 6/gs
Third Down Conversions	2/10 – 20%	#126, #15 – 46.74%
Fourth Down Conversions	1/3 – 33.3%	#94, #10 – 58.33% (7/12)
Red Zone Attempts	2	#109, #14 – 22 – 3.67/game
Red Zone	100% / 50%	#85, #8 – 86.36% / 63.64%

I have covered a lot of the game and my thoughts above.  But here are some of the key sequences and plays, good and bad:

Texas started strong, as usual.  A 75 yard touchdown drive that started with a 10 yard forward pass to Wingo and ended with a 32 yard touchdown run by Raleek Brown (which would be Texas’ longest run of the day).

Texas defense forced a 3 and out.  Arch led the Horns on a 60 yard drive, completing 4 of 5 passes, and Texas got a field goal.  Texas held the Gators to 4 yards on their next possession, another 3 and out.  Texas sputtered on their next possession.   All in all, a good first quarter and a 10 to nothing lead.

Florida had the ball to start the second quarter, and managed to get to the Texas 25 yard line.  But an illegal formation penalty and good Texas defense held the Gators to a field goal, 10-3 Texas.  Texas defense got another stop and on the ensuing punt, Niblett broke it open and took the ball 63 yards to put Texas up 17-3.

Texas held on the next possession, as the defense had Florida in fourth and 12 at the Texas 40.  Too far to kick, too far to try (at least this time), and so Sumrall did the right thing:  Play field position.  Florida punted.

Texas started from its own 3 yard line, but Smothers made that moot with a 21 yard run to get Texas out of the shadows.  Brown had a good run, and Arch had a designed run that got us a first down at the 41.  A sack had us 3rd and 16, but then Arch hit Bishop for 15 yards.  Fourth and one yard to gain at midfield.  This was where the worm turned.  Another head-scratching play call, and Smothers lost a yard instead of gaining a yard, turning the ball over to the Gators in Texas territory with 2:44 to play.  Lots of issues, but going for it isn’t necessarily the main one.  The sad fact is that too often this Texas offense can’t get a yard when it needs one.  If Texas punts, pretty safe to say that Florida is pinned deep with about 2 and a half minutes in the first half, and Texas defense doesn’t allow a score.  Maybe even forces a quick 3 and out and the Horns have the ball back in decent field position.  But, worst case, a 17-3 lead at halftime.

Instead, Tramell Jones and the Gators seize the moment and momentum with a touchdown drive that included runs of 8, 7, and 14 yards, plus a 17 yard pass completion on fourth down.  The 4th and 12 conversion, giving up 17 yards, was absolutely back-breaking.  https://x.com/GatorNationFBPC/status/2112282136090669259?s=20.  Reminiscent of a third and 17 that changed a game and a season.

Texas got the ball with 18 seconds left but decided to take a couple of timeouts to the locker room.  17-10 at half.

A classic 2026 Texas third quarter:  Florida scores on the first possession to tie the game, Texas gets two possessions and runs 6 plays and gains 8 yards.  Florida has the ball as the fourth quarter begins and completes a scoring drive to take a 20-17 lead.

Texas responds with an poor series that ends, again, with Texas failing to convert on fourth down, this time taking a 3 yard loss when they needed to gain 2 yards.  And, again, that failure feeds Florida the ball in plus territory, at the Texas forty-five.  Gators, led by Baugh, ram it down the field with runs of 13, 9, 3, 9, and 11 yards to take a 10 point lead.

To Manning’s and the offense’s credit, they did answer.  The 62 yard pass to Mosley was beautiful, and then Arch hit Coleman for the touchdown to make it 27-24.  It sure seemed like this was going to be an exciting, last minute Texas win.  Especially after forcing a 3 and out and getting the ball at midfield with 2:27 to play.  But the big blitz sacked Manning who fumbled, and that was all she wrote.

Florida got to practice the Victory Formation on Campbell-Williams Field, in the House that Darrell Built.  The Gators beat Texas for the second year in a row, a gut-punch that has the Longhorns on the ropes.

Highlights from the SEC, about 8 minutes:

Highlights from ESPN, about 18 minutes:

Coaching Records

This is very interesting, but the bottom line seems to be, hold your opponents to 21 or less and you can win a lot of football games.  If I am a Southern Cal Trojan booster, I am going out and buying one helluva defense.

Coach	Opponent below 21	Opponent exactly 21	Opponent above 21	Win % above 21
Steve Sarkisian	63–4	3–0	32–53	37.6%
Kirby Smart	96–2	8–0	19–20	48.7%
Lincoln Riley	43–0	8–0	45–29	60.8%
Kalen DeBoer	34–2	4–0	24–17	58.5%
Ryan Day	68–3	6–0	14–10	58.3%

Those coaches at their current schools:

Coach	School	Opponent below 21	Opponent exactly 21	Opponent above 21	Win % above 21
Steve Sarkisian	Texas	34–3	2–0	16–19	45.7%
Kirby Smart	Georgia	96–2	8–0	19–20	48.7%
Lincoln Riley	USC	20–0	3–0	18–19	48.6%
Kalen DeBoer	Alabama	17–2	1–0	7–8	46.7%
Ryan Day	Ohio State	68–3	6–0	14–10	58.3%

Ole Miss and Texas History

Texas leads the series 6-2, although the official records say 6-1.

• Nov. 13, 1912, Houston: Texas 53, Ole Miss 14.
• Nov. 17, 1914, Austin: Texas 66, Ole Miss 7.
• Oct. 3, 1925, Austin: Texas 25, Ole Miss 0.
• Jan. 1, 1958, Sugar Bowl, New Orleans: Ole Miss 39, Texas 7. Texas, ranked No. 11, lost to No. 7 Ole Miss.
• Jan. 1, 1962, Cotton Bowl, Dallas: Texas 12, Ole Miss 7.
• Dec. 17, 1966, Bluebonnet Bowl, Houston: Texas 19, Ole Miss 0. The game was played at Rice Stadium.
• Sept. 15, 2012, Oxford: Texas 66, Ole Miss 31. It was the first meeting in Oxford. David Ash threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns, and Texas finished with 676 total yards. The 66 points were the most Ole Miss had allowed in a game since 1917.
• Sept. 14, 2013, Austin: Ole Miss 44, Texas 23. The Rebels won for the first time since the 1958 Sugar Bowl. The Rebels ran for 272 yards. The win was later vacated, which is why the series record is shown differently depending on the source.

Winsipedia comparison. 

Stuff

• Bob Ballou, one of my favorite sportscasters. “Something I just can’t get over. Texas led Florida 17-3 with 2:44 to go in the 1st half.  The Horns had 4th and 1 from their own 49 – went for it – and didn’t get it. Florida scored 24 unanswered points from there – and in that span – ran 47 plays.  Texas ran 12.”  Me neither Bob.   https://x.com/bobballousports/status/2111597656657346936?s=43
• “Since 2025, no Punt Returner in College Football has more Yards (653) and Touchdowns (3) than Texas’ Ryan Niblett” PFF College
• Justin Cryer, on responsibility, courtesy of Cory Mose. Good stuff.  I like this kid.  https://x.com/cory_mose/status/2112288291106038090?s=43
• Evan Vieth on bad moments. Very good, although he has a typo toward the end, which I correct for you here:  “Keep in mind that in all three of these scenarios, Texas’ defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown as the first half is ending.  Texas has the best 1st half defense in the nation. Their offense can start fast. But when it comes to taking advantage of early chances to put a game away, they are completely incapable.”  This post is worth a click.
• “The 25 most expensive rosters in college football that are NOT in the AP Top 25. Oregon: $43.1M, No. 2 nationally. Unranked. Texas A&M: $33.3M, No. 10 nationally. Unranked.”  Check the graphic.  Goodness I hope we aren’t in this graphic next week.
• Arch comparison to Peyton. This is very interesting.

Week Eight in the Southeastern Conference

No. 18 Louisiana State (5-2, 2-2) at Auburn, 11:00 a.m. on ABC from Jordan-Hare Stadium.  Can the Plains Tigers pull another upset and beat the Bayou Bengals?  ESPN Matchup Predictor has LSU at 71.2%.   Louisiana State favored by 7, over/under is 51.5. War Eagle.

Texas Agricultural & Mechanical (4-3, 1-3) at No. 13 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. on ABC from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa.  Crimson Tide favored by 13.5, over/under is 50.5.  Bama to win and cover. BCF:

Projected Winner	Projected Loser	PW	PM	PF	PA	PT
Alabama	Texas A and M	.842	14.7	32.1	17.3	49.4

Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2) at Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2), 2:30 p.m. on the SEC Network from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. Kamario Taylor listed as questionable.  Land Thieves favored by 3.0, over/under is 46.5.  Kamario plays, Bulldogs win; think he is, as the line has dropped from 4.5 in about 36 hours.  Otherwise, well then, fiddlesticks! BCF:

Projected Winner	Projected Loser	PW	PM	PF	PA	PT
Land Thieves	Hail State	.518	.6	24.9	24.2	49.1

No. 11 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1) at South Carolina (3-3, 1-3), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN from Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia.  Gamecocks favored by 2.5, over/under is 50.5.  Vols to win.  Rocky Top.

Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4) at No. 12 Kentucky (6-1, 4-1), 6:30 p.m. on the SEC Network.  Wildcats are favored by 10.5, over/under is 52.5.  Wildcats win, Dores cover.

Week Eight:  Service Academies  

Friday

Army (4-2, 3-1) at Tulsa (4-3, 1-2), 7:30 p.m. on ESPN2 from H.A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa.  Hurricane favored by 1.5, over/under is 54.5.

Air Force (5-1, 3-1) at Wyoming (4-2, 3-1), 8:00 p.m. on the CW from War Memorial Stadium in Laramie.  Falcons are hot.  Favored by 5.5, over/under is 44.5.

Saturday, North Texas (4-2, 2-0) at Navy (2-4, 1-3), 2:30 p.m. on CBSSN from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis.  Mean Green favored by 2.5, over/under is 63.5.

Top 25 – Week Eight

Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-2) at No. 1 Miami (Florida) (6-0, 4-0), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN from Miami Gardens. Hurricanes are favored by 19.5, over/under is 48.5.  C’mon Pitt.

California (3-4, 2-2) at No. 23 Southern Methodist (5-1, 3-1), 11:00 a.m. on The CW from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Mustangs are favored by 18.5, over/under is 55.5.

Rutgers (2-4, 1-2) at No. 24 Northwestern (5-1, 2-1), 11:00 a.m. on Peacock from Ryan Field in Evanston. Wildcats are favored by 16.5, over/under is 58.5.

No. 6 Indiana (6-1, 3-1) at Michigan (4-2, 1-2), 11:00 a.m. on FOX from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. Hoosiers are favored by 7.5, over/under is 42.5.  How ’bout it Big Blue?  Great day for an upset in the Big House.

No. 8 Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0) at Cincinnati (4-2, 1-2), 11:00 a.m. on FS1 from Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Red Raiders are favored by 11.5, over/under is 56.5.

No. 15 Iowa (5-1, 2-1) at Minnesota (4-2, 2-1), 2:30 p.m. on FS1. Hawkeyes are favored by 7, over/under is 40.5.

No. 2 Brigham Young (6-0, 3-0) at UCF (3-3, 1-2), 2:30 p.m. on FOX from the Bounce House in Orlando. Cougars are favored by 7, over/under is 43.5.  An oddly low line.  Perhaps the oddsmakers think the Cougars have a hangover.  Perhaps they forget that the kids at Brigham Young don’t drink.  No hangover. Cougars win and cover big.

Michigan State (2-5, 0-4) at No. 9 UCLA (6-0, 4-0), 2:30 p.m. on CBS from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Bruins are favored by 15.5, over/under is 43.5.  Line has jumped a point and a half this week. We will have this one on at Juan Heisman.  Watching football played in the Rose Bowl and dreaming of happy days.

No. 21 Boise State (5-1, 2-0) at Washington State (1-6, 0-3), 5:00 p.m. on USA Network from Martin Stadium in Pullman. Broncos are favored by 13.5, over/under is 51.5.

No. 16 Southern Cal (6-1, 3-1) at Wisconsin (4-2, 2-1), 6:30 p.m. on NBC from Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. Trojans are favored by 3, over/under is 50.5.  Trojans win big.  Fight on ✌🏼

Iowa State (3-3, 1-2) at No. 25 Arizona (5-1, 2-1), 6:30 p.m. on ESPN2 from Tucson.  Holy cow Scott, your Wildcats are ranked!  Arizona favored by 10, over/under is 51.5.

No. 14 Houston (6-1, 3-1) at No. 10 Utah (6-0, 3-0), 9:15 p.m. on ESPN from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. Utes are favored by 6.5, over/under is 56.5.

No. 3 The Ohio State University, No. 4 The University of Notre Dame du Lac, and No. 17 Wake Forest (originally Wake Forest Manual Labor Institute) have the weekend off.

Week Eight:  Other Games of Interest

Thursday night, the Memphis Tigers rallied with 31 points in the fourth quarter to force overtime with the East Carolina Pirates, and Memphis won 41-34 in overtime.  Good couple of days for Memphis teams.  Happy for Peter.

Friday

Duke (4-2, 1-2) at Virginia (4-3, 2-2), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN from Scott Stadium in beautiful Charlottesville.  Rematch of last year’s fateful ACC Championship Game.  Cavaliers are favored by 2.5, over/under is 46.5.  Go Hoos!

West Virginia (4-3, 1-3) at Texas Christian (3-3, 1-2), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN2 from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth.  Frogs favored by 10.5, over/under is 57.5.  Good luck Ed!  Safe travels Alison and Clint.

Lock Haven (4-3, 3-1) at No. 7 Slippery Rock (7-0, 4-0), noon Central on WKBN-TV (out of Youngstown, just up the road from the Rock, if you are reading from Western Pennsylvania or eastern Ohio) and streaming on the Rock Athletics Digital Network from Mihalik-Thompson Stadium in Slippery Rock, Pennsylvania.  It is Homecoming for The Rock, which can clinch at least a share of the PSAC West title with a win.

Miami (4-4, 2-1) at Central Michigan (3-4, 1-2), 12:00 noon no ESPN+.  RedHawks favored by 3.  Over/under is 39.5.

Colorado (2-4, 0-3) at Oklahoma State (4-2, 1-2), 6:00 p.m. on FS1 from Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater.  Eric and the Pokes favored by 13.5, over/under is 56.5.  Go Cowboys!

U.T. San Antonio (6-1, 3-0) at Tulane (3-3, 1-1), 7:00 p.m. on ESPNU, from Yulman Stadium in Uptown.  Roadrunners favored by 3, over/under is 51.5.

U.T. Rio Grande (3-4) at Central Arkansas (2-5), 4:00 p.m. on ESPN+ from Estes Stadium in Conway.  Go Vaqueros!

Texas Tight Ends

Some interesting research.

Season	Regular-season record	Tight ends	Postseason Honors
2001	10–1	Bo Scaife; Brock Edwards	Scaife: honorable mention All-Big 12, coaches.
2002	10–2	Brock Edwards; David Thomas	Thomas: honorable mention All-Big 12, AP. Scaife missed the season with a knee injury.
2003	10–2	Bo Scaife; David Thomas; Brock Edwards	Scaife and Thomas: honorable mention All-Big 12, AP.
2004	10–1	Bo Scaife; David Thomas	Scaife: first-team All-Big 12, coaches; honorable mention, AP. Thomas: second-team All-Big 12, coaches and AP.
2005	12–0	David Thomas; Neale Tweedie	Thomas: first-team All-Big 12, AP; second-team, coaches.
2006	9–3	Jermichael Finley; Neale Tweedie; Peter Ullman	Finley: honorable mention Freshman All-American, The Sporting News.
2007	9–3	Jermichael Finley; Peter Ullman; Blaine Irby	Finley: honorable mention All-Big 12, coaches.
2008	11–1	Blaine Irby; Greg Smith; Peter Ullman	Irby suffered that awful knee injury in the third game.
2009	12–0	Greg Smith; Barrett Matthews; Ahmard Howard; Dan Buckner in the flex tight end role	Oh if Colt had not gotten hurt…
2018	9–3	Andrew Beck; Cade Brewer	Beck: first-team All-Big 12, coaches.
2023	11–1	Ja’Tavion Sanders; Gunnar Helm	Sanders: first-team All-Big 12, coaches; second-team All-American, CBS Sports; honorable mention All-American, Phil Steele. Helm: honorable mention All-Big 12, coaches.
2024	11–1	Gunnar Helm; Juan Davis; Amari Niblack	Helm: second-team All-SEC, coaches; honorable mention All-American, College Football Network.
2025	9–3	Jack Endries; Nick Townsend; Will Randle

One can piddle around with this, but my take is this:  Texas is at its best with at least one outstanding tight end.  Mack’s four consecutive 10-win seasons to start the century with Scaife and Thomas.  An undefeated season and national championship with Thomas.  Back to back 11 win seasons with Sanders and Helm, both years made the CFP.

The University of Mississippi

Beautiful Ole Miss, the Harvard of the South, Oxford, Mississippi.  Well, technically most of it is in “University, Mississippi”, a “census-designated place” in Lafayette County, with an official USPS designation and zip code (38677), but completely surrounded by Oxford.

Chartered in 1844 and opened in 1848, it was for 110 years the only comprehensive university in Mississippi.  The law school was opened in 1854, just the fourth state law school in the U.S.

Truly a beautiful campus, and Oxford is one of my favorite places in the South.  Enjoyed many a great meal at City Grocery when Charles was at Ole Miss.  If you ever get a chance to go, for a game or otherwise, go.  A night on the Square is hard to beat.

Lots of history, some William Faulkner and a lot of civil rights.  After legal battles all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, President John F. Kennedy ultimately would send 127 U.S. Marshals, 316 Border Patrol Agents, and 97 Federal Bureau of Prisons officers to get James Meredith on campus.  The riot that ensued led to 13,000 soldiers being deployed to Oxford, more violence and deaths, but James Meredith enrolled and attended class on October 1.  His statue is near The Grove.  Recommend a visit.

Academic Rankings
National
	Texas	Mississippi
Forbes	46	231
U.S. News & World Report	30 (#7 public)	171
WSJ/College Pulse	49	278
Global
ARWU	49	=
QS	72	–
THE	50	–
U.S. News & World Report	56	432

The most famous alumni of Ole Miss are Faulkner, who won the 1949 Nobel Prize for Literature, and then Archie Manning (No. 18) and Eli Manning (No. 10).  Cooper Manning is famous too.

Washington & Lee University

The Generals suffered a stunning 21-22 loss at Bridgewater on a last second touchdown pass.  A bitter loss after Ryan Clemens rushed for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns and Ty Collins had a touchdown pass.  Hard to believe after upsetting Randolph-Macon the week before.

This weekend, the Generals welcome our rival, the Hampden-Sydney Tigers to Lexington.  Kickoff at Wilson Field is 1:00 p.m., Shenandoah Valley time.   Mr. Mica, I assume we have the usual bet.  I look forward to lunch.

Juan Heisman Tailgate

A nice crowd last Saturday for some breakfast tacos and a lot of Tito’s Handmade Vodka bloody marys. This week we will be welcoming many friends from Mississippi, including folks who have graciously hosted me and others in the Grove over the years.  Chopped brisket sandwiches, venison sausage (thanks Jefe!), and hot dogs.  No chandeliers, candelabras, or finger sandwiches, but we throw a pretty good tailgate party.   Should be a beautiful day in Lot 38.

Last weekend was also the Dean family game.  Thanks to Pam Madere and Scott Ferguson, Mark, Kathryn, Peter, Micah, and Helen Kate could all join their Papa and Cita for the game.  Honestly, having family made the loss a lot easier.  More photos in the online edition, for those friends who are interested.  I am so blessed.

College Football Playoffs

The move to a 24-team playoff in the FBS is getting very close, although it has not yet received the blessing of the Southeastern Conference (Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 are apparently in).  The proposed format is 4+19+1:  The four Power Four conference champions (which will likely be regular season champs, as the conference championships will not survive).  Then 19 at large selections and the highest ranked Group of 6 conference champion.  Here is last year’s final CFP ranking:

1. Indiana (13–0)
2. Ohio State (12–1)
3. Georgia (12–1)
4. Texas Tech (12–1)
5. Oregon (11–1)
6. Ole Miss (11–1)
7. Texas A&M (11–1)
8. Oklahoma (10–2)
9. Alabama (10–3)
10. Miami (FL) (10–2)
11. Notre Dame (10–2)
12. BYU (11–2)
13. Texas (9–3)
14. Vanderbilt (10–2)
15. Utah (10–2)
16. USC (9–3)
17. Arizona (9–3)
18. Michigan (9–3)
19. Virginia (10–3)
20. Tulane (11–2)
21. Houston (9–3)
22. Georgia Tech (9–3)
23. Iowa (8–4)
24. James Madison (12–1)

Recall Duke upset UVA in the ACC championship, so under the new format they would have been in.  Because they weren’t ranked, they didn’t get in, and James Madison did.

The CFP Last year:

Top 4 Seeds (First-Round Bye)

1. Indiana (Big Ten Champion)
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia (SEC Champion)
4. Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)

Seeds 5–12 (First Round)

5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Miami (Florida)
11. Tulane (Highest-ranked Group of 5 champion)
12. James Madison (Second Group of 5 champion)

Plug last year’s CFP rankings and teams into the new format, and this is what we would have:

The Top 8 Seeds (First-Round Bye)

1. Indiana (Big Ten Leader / Regular Season 12–0)
2. Ohio State (At-Large)
3. Georgia (SEC Leader / Regular Season 11–1)
4. Texas Tech (Big 12 Leader / Regular Season 11–1)
5. Oregon (At-Large)
6. Ole Miss (At-Large)
7. Texas A&M (At-Large)
8. Oklahoma (At-Large)

Seeds 9 through 24

The remaining seeds round out with a mix of at-large selections, Virginia claiming the ACC automatic bid based on regular-season standings, and Tulane taking the Group of 6 automatic bid:

9. Alabama (10–3)
10. Miami (FL) (10–2)
11. Notre Dame (10–2)
12. BYU (11–2)
13. Texas (9–3)
14. Vanderbilt (10–2)
15. Utah (10–2)
16. USC (9–3)
17. Arizona (9–3)
18. Michigan (9–3)
19. Virginia (ACC Auto-Bid based on regular-season standings)
20. Tulane (G6 Automatic Bid as the highest-ranked G6 champion)
21. Houston (9–3)
22. Georgia Tech (9–3)
23. Iowa (8–4)
24. James Madison (12–1)

Texas, Southern Cal, Arizona, Michigan, Houston, and Georgia Tech all in with three losses, and Iowa with four.  Not sure what I think of this yet, as I agree with the folks who believe this will further degrade the regular season and the intensity and importance of each game.  One reason why I was more in favor of an 18-game field, if we had to expand, with the same idea of all four Power 4 conference champions, plus I would’ve liked the 2 highest ranked Group of 6 champs plus one more at large – highest rank after those 17, regardless of conference.

Lions Municipal Golf Course

Decades of hard work and fundraising and lobbying have apparently paid off with a deal between the City of Austin and The University of Texas to transfer permanent ownership of Muny to the City and the WAYA tract to WAYA under a new agreement, with U.T. getting increased development rights on the remainder of the Brackenridge Tract (about 190 acres), a TIRZ, and benefits for other U.T. property in Austin.  If you have the inclination, the existing agreement and other information is here.  So many people have worked their butts off for this, many of them behind the scenes.  From my view, this would never have happened without the leadership of Scotty Sayers and Ben Crenshaw.  Dozens of others, and I am sure the long and good relationship between two former Texas State Senators, Austin Mayor Kirk Watson and Chairman of the Board of Regents of The University of Texas System, Kevin Eltife (Tyler Lee Class of 1977), helped.  It would not have happened without the very, very generous (and as of now anonymous) donors who stepped in to fill the monetary gap between what the City is paying and U.T. is getting, with the fair market value of the 141 acres, more or less, which comprise Muny.  I hope to read the book someday.  If the deal gets finalized and approved, it is a story with a very happy ending.

Week Seven in the Southeastern Conference

No. 16 Mississippi State 0, No. 22 Louisiana State 31. The Tigers kept their season alive thanks to a good night for Sam Leavitt (31/38, 289 yards, 4 touchdowns) and thanks to the Bulldogs playing without Kamario Taylor.  Parker Puckett was 16/26, 121 yards, and an interception as Louisiana State got their first SEC shutout in Death Valley since 2006.  Tigers cover the 15.5 point line.

The Citadel 0, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 41.  The Bulldogs covered; Aggies were favored by 45.5.  Aggies ran for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns (all 3 by Jamarion Morrow), and the Defense Once Known as the Wrecking Crew held The Citadel to 183 yards (43 passing, 3/10).

Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24.  Well, I will go on record and say that 27-24 has not been a score that resulted in happiness for a lot of folks this year.  And, like Texas in its last two losses, all the analytics and projections were way off.  ESPN Matchup Predictor had the Bulldogs at 90.3%, and  Georgia was favored by 19.5.  The winning field goal was kicked by Alex McPherson.  Two years ago, after suffering from severe ulcerative colitis, McPherson had a colostomy.  Many of you know my sister Becky, who spent way too much time at Children’s Medical Center in Dallas suffering from ulcerative colitis as a young child in the early 1970s before Dr. Ted Votteler removed her colon and part of her small intestine to save her life.  Over 50 years later, Becky remains one of my great inspirations, not just as a fighter and survivor but as a faithful Christian who lives that faith every day despite the challenges of an ostomy.  Seeing McPherson kick that game winner brought a big smile to my face.

No. 6 Alabama 10, No. 14 Tennessee 26.  DeSean Bishop did to Alabama what he couldn’t do to the Longhorns:  run roughshod over the opposing defense.  34 yards against Texas, but 159 against Alabama with two touchdowns.  The Volunteer defense smothered the Crimson Tide:  Keelon Russell 149 yards passing and two interceptions and 6 yards on 11 carries. Another complete reversal of odds and models.  Doesn’t hurt the Horns either.

No. 13 Missouri 3, No. 9 Ole Miss 31.  Rebels were up for the task.  Ole Miss was favored by 5.5.  Great win.

Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21.  Razorbacks get a conference win, on the road no less, to snap a 14-game SEC losing streak.

No. 15 Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13.  Wildcats are legit.  Road underdogs and they beat the Land Thieves soundly.  Mateer threw for 270 yards and a score, but also 3 interceptions (Ulrich had a pick on what I assume was a trick play; I guess he didn’t get roughed).  Kentucky didn’t need a lot of yards with the gifts.  Quite a few people have reminded the college football world what Will Stein said after he got hired to coach the Wildcats:

“I do believe I’m one of the best play callers in the country, and I know why I’m in this position. But I don’t want to be a great play caller. I want to be a great head coach.  And when you think about the guys who won national championships, recently, and old, it’s guys who are great head coaches.  I’m going to be heavily involved in the offense every step of the way, but just because I’m not reading off into the mic to our quarterback doesn’t mean that I’m not meticulous about what plays are being called and when it’s being called.”

Week Seven:  Service Academies 

Florida Atlantic 24, Army 56.  Black Knight quarterback Cale Hellums led the way as he rushed for 195 yards and a career-high five touchdowns. Backup quarterback Bryson Luter added a 69-yard touchdown run.  Vegas missed on that one; Army was favored by 2.5 points, over/under was 54.5.  Go Army!

Navy 34, U.T. San Antonio 38.  Midshipmen ran for 294 yards and 3 scores, but UTSA’s Owen McCown had a day.  28/38 for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns.  28 points (14 each) in the fourth quarter.  Birds up.

UNLV 31, Air Force 41.  Falcon quarterback Evan Medders only passed for 18 yards; however, he ran the ball 18 times for 152 yards and 3 touchdowns, as Air Force totaled 430 yards on the ground.

Top 25 – Week Seven

Virginia Cavaliers 13, No. 24 Southern Methodist 23.  Tough loss for the Hoos.  Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 246 yards and two scores.  Lottie and Talley got to see Parker’s UVA play.  I think Lottie is still a Longhorn (and fortunately she wasn’t in Austin to see her Horns get beat).

No. 4 Ohio State 19, No. 5 Indiana 15.  A costly win for the Buckeyes, as Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with a right arm injury.

No. 25 Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21.  Jackson Kleather’s late 34-yard field goal completed an eight-point fourth-quarter comeback for Northwestern in East Lansing.

Arizona State 25, No. 10 Texas Tech 53.  J’Koby Williams rushed for a career-high 165 yards and two touchdowns, and Ben Roberts had a pick 6 for the Sand Aggies. Will Hammond threw for 232 yards and a touchdown.    

Florida State 35, No. 3 Miami (Florida) 43, double overtime.  Malachi Toney caught 11 passes for 154 yards, scored the go-ahead touchdown, and threw the ensuing two-point conversion. Darian Mensah passed for 326 yards and three touchdowns.  Seminoles covered!

No. 2 Notre Dame 24, No. 8 Brigham Young 28.  The Notre Dame loss capped a tough day for the Taylor family of teams (other than Ole Miss).  Sadness in Blanco.  Bear Bachmeier passed for 224 yards and a touchdown, rushed for two scores, and caught another touchdown.  Notre Dame was favored by 10½, minus 395 on the money line, .770 on Fremeau’s projection, and 78.2 on ESPN’s matchup predictor.  None of that could account for an angry Bear hell-bent on revenge.

Wisconsin 7, No. 12 UCLA 17.  What is going on in Westwood?  Looking forward to November 28.

No. 18 Oklahoma State 32, No. 20 Houston 35.  Conner Weigman completed 24 of 33 passes for 343 yards and a career-high five touchdowns. Drew Mestemaker countered with 365 passing yards and three touchdowns for Oklahoma State.  Bummed for Morris, happy for Joe.

No. 11 Utah 27, Colorado 24.  Buffaloes put up a strong fight against the Utes.

No. 21 Wake Forest 41, California 7.  Wake’s Gio Lopez passed for 267 yards and four touchdowns and added 51 rushing yards. Tight end Dominick Barry caught four passes for 103 yards and three touchdowns.

Week Seven:  Other Games of Interest

Pittsburgh 21, Boston College 27.  Pitt was favored by 6.5.

North Carolina 24, Duke 20.  Blue Devils were favored by 3.

Penn State 18, Michigan 21.  Attawaytogo Wolverines.

Akron 4, Miami 34.  RedHawks rushed for 324 yards.

Texas Christian 17, Baylor 6.  Ed Small caught 7 passes for 91 yards and a score.  Frogs held the Bears to 54 net yards rushing.

San Jose State 24, UTEP 11.

Slippery Rock 42, No. 19 Indiana University (Pa.) 19.  JayJay Jordan rushed for 138 yards and two touchdowns, and Da’One Owens added 159 passing yards, 86 rushing yards, and three total touchdowns. The Rock won the 100th meeting, improved to 7-0, and took sole possession of first place in the PSAC West.

U.T. Rio Grande Valley 16, Incarnate Word 41.

The Polls

Remarkably, Texas is still ranked.

ESPN’s FPI

Full analytics, with the probabilities for winning out, winning the SEC, making the playoffs, etc.

2026 College Football Power Index – ESPN

Bill Connelly’s SP+

Massey Rating & Composite

Statistician Kenneth Massey uses “the mathematical theory of least squares to solve a massive system of equations that processes all game outcomes simultaneously. Rather than looking at box score statistics like rushing yards or turnovers, it only tracks three raw inputs: the final score, the game location, and the date.”  The three pillars are Outcome, Margin of Victory, and Strength of Schedule.

Massey Rating:  Ohio State, Georgia, Indiana, Miami (FL), Utah, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas Tech.  Texas is 13th, with the toughest schedule.

Team	Rec	Rat	Pwr	Off	Def	HFA	SoS	SSF	EW	EL
Texas	4-2	13 8.69	10 76.08	16 63.47	5 40.53	2.33	1 67.63	1 68.19	4.11	1.89
Ole Miss	5-1	8 8.83	9 77.05	5 67.68	22 37.28	2.29	9 64.76	8 66.35	4.20	1.80

Rat: Rating overall strength

Pwr: Power rating

Off: Offensive power to score

Def: Defensive power to prevent opponent from scoring

HFA: Home Field Advantage

SoS: Strength of Schedule – played games only

SSF: Strength of Schedule – including future games

EW: Expected Wins for remainder of schedule

EL: Expected Losses for remainder of schedule

Massey Composite:  Miami (FL), Ohio State, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, U.C. Los Angeles, Georgia, Alabama, Indiana, Texas Tech, Ole Miss.  Texas is 14th.

Breakthrough T1D

Very disappointed by the lack of response to last week’s charitable request.  Please.

Type 1 diabetes (which used to be called juvenile diabetes) is a pernicious disease that impacts the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans and their families.  It is a life-changing diagnosis.  It is a lifetime of needles and monitoring and other health risks.  Lots of great treatments, but no cure.  Breakthrough T1D (formerly the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation) provides tremendous support to diabetics and their families as it works tirelessly to fund a cure and advocates for funding and research.

T1D is a big part of our family.  My son-in-law Parker Fleming is T1D.  My daughter Mary Elizabeth worked for JDRF in DC.  Kathy and I are supporters of Breakthrough T1D, and we pray for that cure.

Parker is on the Austin Chapter Board and is chairing this year’s walk, one of the organization’s important fundraisers.  I ask that you join us in supporting Parker and Mary Elizabeth and the search for a cure.  Thanks.

Breakthrough T1D Walk, Austin: Parker’s Power Walkers – BreakthroughT1D Walk

PFF

Power Rankings:

PEAR Ratings

FBS Football Ratings | PEARatings

Stats:  FBS Football Statistics | PEARatings

CFP Resume Rankings

This guy does CFP resume rankings.  Home | Cfpresumerankings

Not dead yet!

Jim Nicar

1912: A U.T. Austin football practice scrimmage on the original Clark Field, about where the Gates/Dell computer science complex is today. Those are brown canvas pants, grey wool socks and jerseys, with bright orange stripes in the middle of each.

From Jim’s October 15, 2026 post on X.

Pictures of the Week

From sh._.y’s October 18, 2026 post on Instagram.

www.jw.com/ttaylor

On X:  @tctayloratx

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You can contact me by mail:

Tim Taylor
P.O. Box 5371
Austin, Texas  78763-5371