AHFD Special Edition
A limited special edition of the Austin Horns Fan Dispatch for Monday night’s national championship game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Going to be one heck of a game. The Curt Cignetti story is one for the sports history books, followed immediately by his Heisman Trophy quarterback, Fernando Mendoza. As with every national championship game, every media outlet is filled with stories about the teams, the players, the coaches (Cignetti eats the same Chipotle bowl every day for lunch), and the fans. I don’t care much for the Miami Hurricanes, so I am a Hoosiers fan Monday night.
Really hadn’t planned on this, but I am looking forward to this game and to cheering for the Hoosiers so decided to do a quick dive and get ready for the game. Also, appreciate the friends who reached and asked if I was going to send something. A quick look at the usual stats and metrics to get you ready for the game.
CFP National Championship Game
No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (13-2) vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (15-0). The line opened at Indiana minus 8.5. The money line last Thursday was Indiana minus 340, Miami plus 270. Sunday evening, it is Hoosiers minus 7.5, and the money lines are Indiana minus 325 and Miami plus 260. Over/under is 47.5.
The game will kick off Monday night, 6:30 p.m. Central time, and will be broadcast on ESPN. Calling the game from Hard Rock Stadium will be Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit, with Holly Rowe and Molly McGrath on the sidelines. Listen on SiriusXM channel 80 or 84.
Lots of interesting storylines in this game, but my favorite is that Fernando Mendoza grew up in South Florida and led the Christopher Columbus High School Explorers to a Florida state championship. A 2 star, the Hurricanes didn’t offer even a walk-on spot to Mendoza. His mother played tennis for Miami, and his dad and Cane head coach Mario Cristobal were teammates in high school – at Christopher Columbus.
Fernando Mendoza was recruited by California Berkeley. He took the opportunity to attend a great university, and he graduated in three years. Cignetti brought him to Bloomington, where Mendoza is working on his MBA. If you have a subscription to The Athletic, this is a great article (and if you don’t and really want to read it, ping me)
Fernando Mendoza grew up in Miami, so why is he a Hoosier and not a Hurricane?
This is truly a portal era championship game. Before the playoffs, Sam Khan Jr. did some great analysis, and here is the percentage of games started by recruits vs. transfers:
- Miami (FL) – 53.6% transfers.
- Indiana – 65.4% transfers. This is fairly understandable, given that Cignetti had to go stock a roster when he got to Bloomington. The team he inherited was 3-9 and 1-8 in the Big Ten in 2023.
The Hoosiers have had an extraordinary season, capped with a Big Ten Championship by defeating the defending national champions.
CFP:
The Hurricanes had a good season, but losses to Louisville (who finished 9-4) and Southern Methodist (also 9-4) nearly kept Miami out of the playoffs. They got hot at the right time.
CFP:
The Statistics
Offense
Statistic |
Indiana |
Miami |
| Rushing Offense | # 12- 218.3 ypg | #72 – 154.6 ypg |
| Passing Offense | #54 – 242.7 ypg | #38 – 254.6 ypg |
| Total Offense | #11 – 461.0 ypg | #41 – 409.2 ypg |
| Scoring Offense | #2 – 42.6 ppg | #30 – 30.6 ppg |
| Sacks Allowed | #34 – 1.47/game | #16 – 1.27/game |
| Third Down Conversions | #1 – 58.2% | #18 – 47.1% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #90 – 50% (8/16) | #14 – 68.2% (15/22) |
| Red Zone Offense | #11 – 92% / 74% | #36 – 89% / 68% |
Defense
Statistic |
Indiana |
Miami |
| Rushing Defense | #2 – 75.0 ypg | #6 – 86.5 ypg |
| Passing Defense | #23 – 185.9 ypg | #45 – 206.1 ypg |
| Total Defense | #4 – 260.9 ypg | #11 – 292.6 ypg |
| Scoring Defense | #2 – 11.1 ppg | #5 – 14.0 ppg |
| Sacks | #6 – 3.0/game | #4 – 3.13/game |
| Third Down Conversions | #8 – 30.3% | #11 – 30.8% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #47 – 48.2% (13/27) | #47 – 48.2% (13/27) |
| Red Zone Defense | #43 – 81% / 35% | #28 – 78% / 53% |
Other
Statistic |
Indiana |
Miami |
| Turnovers | #3 – 8 (1F, 7I) | #34 – 14 (3F, 11I) |
| Turnover Margin | #1 – 29:8 plus 21 | #8 – 25:14 plus 11 |
| Penalties | #2 – 3.7/g, 26.9 yards/game | #85 – 7/g, 57.1 yards/game |
Some individual stats (cribbed from the Indiana game notes):
Some additional stats of interest:
- Beck and Mendoza are ranked 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in completion percentage – 73.3% and 73.0%.
- Mendoza is No. 1 in touchdown passes with 41 (the extra games help, of course). Beck is 8th with 21.
- Indiana has 3 players in the top 50 in tackles for loss: Stephen Daley, 4th in the country with 1.46 TFL per game (19 for 85 yards), Isaiah Jones, 1.03 per game (15.5 for 61 yards), and Rolijah Hardy, 1 per game (15 for 52 yards)
- Miami has 2 players in the top 50 in tackles for loss: Akheem Mesidor with 1.11 per game (15.5 for 99 yards), and Keionte Scott with 1 per game (13 for 43 yards).
- Mesidor is 16th nationally with 0.75 sacks per game (10.5 for 84 yards)
BCF Game Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Indiana | Miami | .794 | 12.1 | 28.6 | 16.4 | 45.0 |
Parker Fleming’s CFB Graphs:
TCT Thoughts
This is going to be a very interesting game, with two outstanding defenses which are capable of shutting down great players and offenses. As good as the Hurricanes are, the Hoosiers are better. I think Hardy (6.53 tackles per game) and Fisher (6.64 tackles per game) are the better linebackers, and I think Carson Beck is in for a long night.
While both defenses are very closely matched in total defense and scoring defense and most of the other metrics (to the point of being exactly tied on fourth down defense), the stat that jumped out to me was Indiana’s red zone defense. Not overall – IU at 81%, and Miami at 78%, but the Hoosier red zone defense as to touchdowns – 34.62%. Opponents have 26 red zone attempts, and Indiana has allowed just 9 touchdowns – the best in the country percentage wise and in touchdowns. Indiana has allowed just 16 touchdowns this season. And of those 16 touchdowns, 2 were scored by Oregon in their first matchup, 3 were scored by Penn State in that wild game, and Oregon scored 3 in the CFP semifinal game. In their other 12 games this season, Indiana has allowed 8 touchdowns.
The Hurricanes got in the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. As their fans will tell you, they have proved they belong. I watched most of their first round game with Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, a bit of their game with Ohio State, and most of the Ole Miss game. Having watched Texas play 2 of those teams, I admit this Miami team is very good. But, they have flaws, or else they would not have lost to Louisville and Southern Methodist. And if Marcel Reed had been a touch more accurate, that game in College Station could have easily gone to the Aggies.
I looked at the Louisville and SMU games. The Cardinals finished 9-4 and 7th in the ACC. They beat the Hurricanes in Miami. How? Carson Beck threw 4 interceptions and the Canes rushed for 63 yards. Fletcher led with 18 yards on 8 carries. Miami was also flagged 9 times for 67 yards. Against Southern Methodist (9-4, 2nd in the ACC), Beck was intercepted twice, including in overtime. Kevin Jennings roasted the Cane secondary for 365 yards and 1 touchdown, but the Mustangs only ran for 23 yards. The Hurricanes 12 penalties for 96 yards.
Going undefeated is extremely hard, and the fact that Cignetti has his team playing this well and this consistently is a testament to his approach to the game- from the practice system to game management. He is very, very good. On the other side, you have Mario Cristobal, who is a very good football coach and will have a defensive plan for Mendoza. But I give the coaching edge to Cignetti. With respect to active FBS coaches, he has a .865 winning percentage, second only to Ryan Day, and ahead of Dan Lanning, Kirby Smart, and Dabo Swinney.
Quarterback edge goes to Mendoza. No. 1 with a 90.2 QBR, compared to Beck’s 81.4 (11th). Mendoza is also tops with a 187.96 rating, to Beck’s 159.42 (12th). Mendoza is playing at such a high level, I think he finishes with a win, a perfect season, and a national championship. He deserves it.
Not surprisingly, my belief is that turnovers and penalties will be keys to the game. Miami is much more susceptible in both categories. Edge to Indiana.
Indiana Hoosiers 31, Miami Hurricanes 24.
CFP Semifinals
No. 5 Oregon Ducks 22, No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers 56. The Hoosiers splatchcocked the Ducks in the Peach Bowl. The line was Indiana by 4 and the Hoosiers won by 34. It was 35-7 at halftime, and Mendoza was almost perfect 17/20 for 177 yards and 5 touchdowns, a QBR for 98.5. Hoosiers rushed for 185 yards. “Indiana to win and cover.” ✔️
No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 31, No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels 27. The line was Miami -3.5. A disappointing end to a great season for Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebs. The Ole Miss defense gave up 191 yards rushing. A great football game and exciting fourth quarter where the teams combined for 25 points. Ole Miss made a helluva run, especially considering the circumstances.
Kamukama Foundation
Including this again for this special edition, as it is a very special mission.
Kamukama Foundation’s mission is to nourish the spiritual, emotional, physical, and educational well-being of impoverished youth living in rural Uganda. Through student sponsorships and wrap-around services, sponsored students are opened to a world of hope and opportunity. This month, Kamukama will open the doors to new dorms, providing a new home for their most vulnerable students. You can consider supporting Kamukama by making a gift or sponsoring a bed for one of their students.
General Donation Link: https://kamukamafoundation.org/donate/
Sponsor a Bed: https://kamukamafoundation.org/dormitory-sponsor/
Our great and dear friends Jeanne and Lew Little started Kamukama, and they have brought some of the best and most faithful people I know into the Kamukama family, especially my daughter Mary Elizabeth Fleming. This is an extraordinary ministry, and I ask you to join me in supporting it.
Give us generous hearts, minds, and spirits, O God, so that what we give may help others to know your love. Through Jesus Christ, we humbly pray. Amen.
Texas Longhorns Football
I will have a final edition of the AHFD for football and to look at Texas Baseball in February. In the meantime, kudos to Sark and CDC and the staff for pulling off a great closing in the portal. Looks like we are all in for 2026. I am excited that Blake Gideon is coming back to The Forty Acres.
Texas Men’s Basketball
Coach Miller and the Longhorns righted the ship with a huge road win over No. 13 Alabama, 92-88. Texas followed that up with another big upset, at home, beating No. 10 and undefeated Vanderbilt 80-64. The Aggies came to town on Saturday, and Texas just couldn’t get their best game going, falling to Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 70-74.
Texas Women’s Basketball
The No. 2 Longhorns are now 19-2 after hard road games against LSU and South Carolina. The Longhorns played the Aggies Sunday afternoon in The Moody Center, and I guess they had a bit of hangover from those losses. Texas led 34-24 at halftime. Coach Shaeffer had the cure and administered it at halftime. Texas outscored Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 46-11 in the second half, including allowing just 3 points in the third quarter.
Texas Baseball
Texas opens with UC Davis on Friday February 13. 25 days!
ESPN’s FPI
2025 College Football Power Index – ESPN
Bill Connelly’s SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing.
Jim Nicar
Growth and change. The U.T. Austin campus from the present day intersection of Martin Luther King, Jr. Boulevard and University Avenue in 1883, 1905, 1920, and 1940.
Very much worth going to the post and looking at each photo. The last two in particular.
From Jim’s post on X on January 12, 2026.
Picture of the Week
January’s full Wolf Moon.
This photo is from JType’s January 4, 2026, post on Instagram.
On X: @tctayloratx
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On Instagram: @tctayloratx
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and: www.Facebook.com/Juan.Heisman
You can contact me by mail:
Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371