Happy New Year!
2026 should be a great one for the Burnt Orange Faithful.
No. 18 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 13 Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns and Wolverines meet for the third time on Wednesday in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Both teams are 9-3. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. on ABC. Mark Jones will handle the play-by-play, Roddy Jones with analysis, and Alyssa Lang reporting from the sidelines. The game can be heard around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns, Craig Way, joined by Roger Wallace in the booth and by Will Matthews on the sidelines. Listen in Austin on the Flagship, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM. Listen in Del Rio on KWMC 1490 AM, in Corpus Christi on KEYS 1144 AM, and in San Angelo and the Concho Valley with Mr. McLaughlin on KKSA 1260 AM. Dr. Rubén Pizarro-Silva and Jesus Mendoza with the call in Spanish on certain Longhorn Radio Network affiliates and streaming on the Texas Longhorn App and online, https://texas.leanplayer.com/.
The line opened at Texas minus 4.5. It has moved to Texas, and as of early Wednesday morning Texas is favored by 7. The over/under is 48.5. The money line is Texas -285, Michigan +230. I like those odds.
My trip to Ann Arbor 2024 was one of my favorite Texas football road games, and seeing this on the scoreboard in the Big House is a great memory. What a play! Credit to my great friend and law partner Pam Madere who tipped me on this and was my collaborator on this great fun.
2025 Michigan Wolverines
The Maize and Blue had a good season that ended disastrously with head coach Sherrone Moore’s meltdown and firing. Such a mess. Michigan named Francis Xavier “Biff” Poggi as interim head coach and he will be with the Wolverines in Orlando. Biff is a couple of months older than me (65) and Biff went to Gilman School in Baltimore, a well-regarded prep school that I remember as having a pretty good lacrosse program. Biff’s head coaching experience consists of 2 years at UNC Charlotte, where we went 3-9 and 3-7 before getting fired and succeeded, ironically, by Tim Brewster. Biff is 2-0 as an interim head coach at Michigan.
Unlike Texas, it looks like most of the Michigan players will be in Orlando for the game. The only opt-outs are EDGE rushers Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham and offensive lineman Giovanni El-Hadi. Pretty impressive given what has gone down in Ann Arbor. The excellent hiring of Kyle Whittingham may have stopped any mass exodus, and Texas will play a pretty good Michigan team. Here’s a look at the Wolverine’s team and season.
Game 1: New Mexico 17, No. 14 Michigan 34. Bryce Underwood passed for 251 yards and a score. Justice Haynes ran for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns on 16 carries, including a 56 yard touchdown run in the first quarter. Marlin Klein had 6 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. Wolverines had 3 interceptions (Guy, Hillman, and Sullivan).
Game 2: No. 15 Michigan 13, No. 18 Oklahoma 24. Bryce Underwood had a rough day, going 9/24 for 142 yards. QBR of 44.2. Donovan McCulley had 3 catches for 91 yards. Justice Haynes had 125 yards and the only Michigan touchdown. John Matee was 21/34 for 270 yards (1 TD, 1 pick) and rushed for 74 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Game 3: Central Michigan 3, No. 23 Michigan 63. A severe beating of the Chippewas. Underwood was 16/25 for 235 yards and 1 TD and 1 pick, and he was the Wolverines’ leading rusher with 114 yards and 2 scores on 9 carries. Justice Haynes had 104 yards and a touchdown, and Jordon Marchall had 52 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 carries.
Game 4: No. 21 Michigan 30, Nebraska 27. Underwood was 12/22 for 105 yards and no scores, but he did rush for 61 yards and a touchdown. Justice Haynes has 17 carries for 149 yards and a touchdown, and Jordan Marshall had 80 yards and a touchdown on 6 carries. Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola was 30/41 for 308 yards and 3 touchdowns (1 pick). Cornhuskers were net 43 yards rushing (Raiola was minus 49, as Michigan had 7 sacks and 9 TFL).
Game 5: Wisconsin 10, No. 20 Michigan 24. Underwood was 19/28 for 270 yards and a score. Haynes rushed for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries.
Game 6: No. 15 Michigan 13, Southern Cal 31. Underwood was 15/24 for 207 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 pick. Jordan Marshall had 14 carries for 68 yards, Haynes had 10 for 51. No sacks on Maiava, and the Trojans’ King Miller had 158 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.
Game 7: Washington 7, Michigan 24. One of the Wolverines’ better wins, in my opinion. Underwood was 21/27 for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns. Marshall rushed for 133 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. (Haynes was out with an injury.) Michigan had 7 tackles for loss and 2 sacks, plus 3 interceptions.
Game 8: No. 25 Michigan 31, Michigan State 20. The Spartan defense shutdown Bryce Underwood, as he was just 8/17 for 86 yards. QBR of 40.3. Justice Haynes had 152 yards and 2 touchdowns on 26 carries (he was injured and is still out). Jordan Marshall had 110 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries.
Game 9: Purdue 16, No. 21 Michigan 21. Another underwhelming game from Underwood, as he was 13/22 for 145 yards and an interception, plus he fumbled. QBR of 48.5. Jordan Marshall carried Michigan, to the tune of 185 yards and 3 touchdowns on 25 attempts, including a first quarter 54 yards touchdown run.
Game 10: No. 18 Michigan 24, Northwestern 22. Michigan needed a walk-off field goal as time expired at Wrigley Field to beat the Wildcats. Underwood was 21/32 for 280 yards with 2 interceptions, and Michigan added 3 fumbles to a bad turnover day. Hard to win with 5 errors, but they did. Jordan Marshall had 142 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries, including a 65 yards run, but was injured. The Michigan placekicker, Dominic Zvada, had missed his first 2 kicks before getting the game winner.
Game 11: No. 18 Michigan 45, Maryland 20. Bryce Underwood needed a better day with Haynes and Marshall out, and he had one. 16/23 for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bryson Kuzdal had 20 carries for 100 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Game 12: No. 1 Ohio State 27, No. 15 Michigan 9. The Buckeyes shutdown Underwood, who was just 8/18 for 63 yards and an interception. QBR of 48.4. Jordan Marshall was back, but only got 61 yards on 7 carries. Julian Sayin was 19/26 for 233 yards, a touchdown, 1 pick. Ohio State rushed for 186 yards.
Michigan Players
Quarterback Bryce Underwood (No. 19, 6- 4, 228 pounds) had an up and down year, not too unusual for a freshman. But given that his 4 year NIL deal was between $10 million and $12.5 million (Michigan flipped him from LSU), I suspect it was not quite the season for which his funding benefactors had hoped (and paid). I decided to lay out his stats in comparison to Arch Manning.
| Passing | Arch Manning | Underwood |
| Yards per game | 245.2 | 185.8 |
| Yards | 2,942 | 2,752 |
| Attempts | 370 | 293 |
| Completions | 227 | 179 |
| Completion Percentage | 61.4% | 61.1% |
| Yards/Attempt | 8.0 | 7.6 |
| Yards/Completion | 12.96 | 15.37 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 9 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 6 |
| Sacks | 23 | 17 |
| Rating | #42 – 45.8 | #81 – 131.0 |
| QBR | #33 – 70.6 | #26 – 73.8 |
| Rushing | Arch Manning | Underwood |
| Yards | 244 | 323 |
| Yards per Game | 20.33 | 26.92 |
| Yards per Attempt | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 5 |
Underwood is the third leading rusher for Michigan. It is worth noting that Underwood has 17 runs over 10 yards. Arch has 15.
Running Backs
Michigan’s two best running backs are banged up. Jordan Marshall (No. 23, 5-11, 216 pounds, sophomore) finished the regular season as the Wolverines’ leading rusher with 932 yards and 10 touchdowns on 150 carries, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He is big but can bust a big run. He has 8 runs over 20 yards, 5 over 30, and 4 over 50, plus the 65 yarder. It looks like Marshall will play on Wednesday. Justice Haynes (No. 22, 5-11, 210 pounds junior from Alpharetta, Georgia) has 857 yards and 10 touchdowns on 121 carries, averaging 7.1 yards per carry. Like Marshall, very capable of explosive runs. His long is 75 yards, and he has 9 runs over 20 yards, 5 over 40, 4 over 50, and 2 over 70. Haynes hasn’t practiced in Orlando and as of Tuesday night is very doubtful. Bryson Kuzdzal (No. 24, 5-11, 210 pounds, junior) has stepped in with the injuries. He has 244 yards and 4 touchdowns on 56 carries, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
Wide Receivers
Andrew Marsh (No. 4, 6 foot, 190 pounds, freshman from Jordan HS in Katy, Texas) is the Wolverine’s top receiver with 641 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 catches, averaging 15.3 yards per catch. Donaven McCulley (No. 1, 6-5, 215 pounds senior) has 534 yards and 3 touchdowns on 35 catches, also averaging 15.3 yards per catch. Semaj Morgan (No. 0, 5-10, 174 pounds, junior) has 19 catches for 214 yards and one touchdown.
Tight Ends
Marlin Klein (No. 17, 6-6, 250 pounds, senior from Cologne, Germany) has 20 receptions for 209 yards and a score. Zack Marshall (No. 83, 6-4, 245 pounds, junior from Carlsbad, California) has 15 catches for 195 yards and a touchdown. Cologne and Carlsbad are over 5,700 miles apart.
Defense
Linebackers
Jimmy Rolder (No. 30, 6-2, 240 pounds, senior) leads Michigan with 69 tackles (43 solo), and he has 2 sacks and an interception. Ernest Hausmann (No. 15, 6-2, 235 pounds, senior) has 68 tackles (44 solo). As of Tuesday morning, he was not certain for the game. Cole Sullivan (No. 23, 6-3, 230 pounds, sophomore) has 37 tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 interceptions. Jaishawn Barham, another top linebacker who had 4 sacks (2nd on team), has opted out.
Defensive Backs
Tarrus “TJ” Metcalf, Jr. (No. 7, 6-1, 200 pounds, junior from Birmingham, born in Oxford, Mississippi, played 2 years for Arkansas) has 51 tackles and an interception. Plays safety and nickel. Brandyn Hillman (No. 6, 6 foot 200 pounds, junior) has 48 tackles and an interception. Mason Curtis (No. 25, 6-5, 211 pounds sophomore from Nashville) has 34 tackles, a sack, and an interception. That’s a tall DB. Jyaire Hill (No. 20, 6-2, 190 pounds junior) has 33 tackles, a sack, an interception, and 5 passes defended. Zeke Berry (No. 10, 5-11, 196 pounds, senior) has 28 tackles and a pick and leads the Wolverines with 10 passes defended. Berry is Michigan’s best coverage corner.
Edge
Michigan’s sack leader, Derrick Moore, has opted out. He had 10 sacks for 97 yards, accounting for over a third of Michigan’s 28 sacks on the season. Cameron Brandt (No. 9, 6-4, 270 pounds, junior) has 21 tackles and half a sack. TJ Guy (No. 4, 6-4, 250 pounds, graduate from Brockton, Massachusetts) has 18 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Dominic Nichols (No. 33, 6-5, 255 pounds, sophomore) has 16 tackles and 1 sack. [As an aside, I realize the preferred term is “EDGE”, capitalized; but that bugs me, as it is not an acronym. Unnecessary, in my opinion. Edge works.]
Defensive Line
Rayshaun Benny (No. 26, 6-4, 305 pounds, senior) has 31 tackles and 1.5 sacks for 15 yards. Trey Pierce (No. 95, 6-2, 310 pounds, junior) has 29 tackles. Tre Williams (No. 0, 6-2, 320 pounds, senior) has 19 tackles. Enow Etta (No. 17, 6-5, 320 pounds, Junior from Keller, Texas) has 15 tackles.
Dominic Zvada is perfect on extra points (40/40) and is 15/22 on field goals (68.2%). 5/6, 20-29; 3/6, 30-39; 6/8, 40-49; and 1 of 2 over 50.
Texas Longhorns
Before looking at statistics and metrics, a look at who will be playing for Texas and who has decided to skip the game.
Half of the best players on the defensive side of the ball have elected to skip the game and enter the NFL draft.
- Anthony Hill, Jr. 70 tackles (tied 2nd), 4 sacks (2nd), 2 interceptions (tied 2nd).
- Michael Taaffe. 70 tackles (tied 2nd), 1 sack, 2 interceptions (tied 2nd).
- Malik Muhammad. 30 tackles, 1 sack, 2 interceptions (tied 2nd).
- Jaylon Guilbeau. 40 tackles (tied 7th), 1 interception.
- Ethan Burke. 40 tackles (tied 7th), 3 sacks (tied 3rd).
- Trey Moore. LB/DE. 34 tackles (8th), 3 sacks (tied 3rd).
That’s 33.97% of our tackles made, 31.6% of our sack production, and 53.8% of our interceptions.
The transfer portal opened its ugly maw and apparently it was connected directly to the running back room. Some of these are roster management, some are young men hoping to get to a place with a better opportunity of making the NFL, some are probably bad advice from greedy NIL agents. Some are a combination of the foregoing.
- Quintrevion Wisner. Running Back. I understand his decision, but he was really one of my favorite players on offense. His 597 yards was 38.4% of our rushing attack. I wish him the best. Hope he gets his 7 figure deal.
- CJ Baxter. Running Back. 196 yards on 54 carries, no scores, although he did have 12 receptions for 41 yards and a score. Also an understandable portal election. Hope he lands somewhere and can get in an injury-free season.
- Jerrick Gibson. Running Back. 152 yards and 1 touchdown.
- DeAndre Moore, Jr. Wide Receiver. Second leading receiver with 532 yards, 3rd with 4 touchdown catches. A loss, but not terribly damaging. We are still stacked.
- Aaron Butler. Wide Receiver. He had 1 catch.
- Connor Stroh. Offensive Line.
- Liona Lefau. 68 tackles (4th), 1 sack. This one hurts mainly because it leaves the Horns so thin at LB.
- Derrick Williams, Jr. Defensive back.
- Santana Wilson. He did have a tackle this season.
- Melvin Hills III. Defensive tackle.
Coach Steve Sarkisian is a competitive man, and I have no doubt that he really wants to win this football game. Despite the departures on offense, the most important player and the leader, Arch Manning, is still here, most of the line, and a great group of receivers. The running back position is a different story, but not necessarily all bad news.
The real challenge is on defense, as Sark has lost seven key players who combined accounted for 42.1% of the season’s tackles and what we know was highly critical leadership from Michael Taaffe. Compounded by having said gracias and adios to Pete Kwiatkowski (I guess “dziękuję i do widzenia” is better). Assistant Coach Johnny Nansen, Co-Defensive Coordinator and Linebackers, has had the responsibility of building a defense and a game play for a decent Michigan offense that, depending on who is healthy, does have a very potent rushing attack. How Nansen and the rest of the staff stitch together stunts and schemes to stop the Wolverines will be the key to the Texas win, especially to backstop the depleted linebacker corps.
Here are the key players we do have back for defense, starting with the Edge, many of who can provide important support for the “true” linebackers.
- Colin Simmons, Edge. 41 tackles and team-leading 11 sacks.
- Brad Spence, Edge. 18 tackles, 3 sacks. Spence was a linebacker (position he played at Arkansas) before moving to Edge this summer, and I am sure he will be lined up at LB with Smith a lot. I am just listing guys at their roster position.
- Lance Jackson, Edge. 15 tackles, 2 sacks.
- Colton Vasek, Edge. 3 tackles. Need Vasek to step up big.
The interior of the defensive line has key leadership left with Hero Kanu (31 tackles and 2 sacks) and to a degree Alex January (16 tackles, 1.5 sacks), but we are going to need Justus Terry, Lavon Johnson, Maraad Watson, and Myron Charles to contribute.
Ty’Anthony Smith is our best remaining linebacker, who had 50 tackles (5th on the team) and 2 sacks. He will have to be the man. I think he can do it. Elijah “Bo” Barnes, a true freshman, has 1 tackle, but sounds like he has done well in practice. I am guessing Marshall Landwehr, the 5th year senior former walk-on (Highland Park HS), will get some playing time. At least he has been around the program and knows the team. And, as noted above, Brad Spence.
We got hit hard in the defensive backfield, but I feel reasonably good about the remaining guys to keep Bryce Underwood in check.
- Jelani McDonald at Safety. Huge that he is here and coming back. McDonald was the team leader in tackles (70, 43 solo) and interceptions (3).
- Graceson Littleton, Cornerback. Littleton had 40 tackles this season and some good games. He is tied for first with 5 passed defended (due in no small part to the fact that not many teams tested Malik Muhammad) and had 2 interceptions.
- Xavier Filsaime, Safety. 15 tackles.
- Kade Phillips, Cornerback. Just 14 tackles on the season but tied with Littleton with 5 passed defended.
- Warrant Roberson, Cornerback. Also 14 tackles.
- Kobe Black, Cornerback. 13 tackles.
We also have Jonah Williams and Jordan Johnson-Rubell, both of whom can play good ball.
That might not be a defensive roster than can do what this team did to the Land Thieves and to Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, but it is a respectable lineup capable of playing well.
Offensively, Sark should be able to deliver a great game plan. We know well most of this will be on Arch Manning and protecting him, and with Wingo, Mosley, Niblett, and Livingstone back, plus Endries and Washington at tight end, Arch has a stout corps of athletes to target. Not to mention a couple of highly regarded freshman, Kalil Locket and Jaime Ffrench who I would love to see a little of.
That leaves the running backs. We have talent, just not a lot of game experience.
- Christian Clark (No. 6, 6 foot, 212 pounds, freshman) had 35 carries for 131 yards and 1 touchdown. He also had 4 catches for 57 yards.
- James Simon (No. 31, 5-11, 205 pounds, freshman) had 29 carries for 122 yards.
- Michael Terry III (No. 11, 6-3, 216 pounds, freshman, Alamo Heights). Highly regarded athlete, has practiced on both sides of the ball this season. But we have been hearing good things on offense out of practices for weeks. Some highlights from high school.
Some quality kids there, and we still got Arch Manning, who had more rushing touchdowns (8) than the rest of the team combined (6).
No. 18 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 13 Texas Longhorns
The Statistics
Offense
Statistic |
Texas |
Michigan |
| Rushing Offense | #101 – 129.7 ypg | #16 – 213.2 ypg |
| Passing Offense | #44 – 253.2 ypg | #107 – 185.8 ypg |
| Total Offense | #75 – 382.8 ypg | #57 – 398.9 ypg |
| Scoring Offense | #52 – 29.6 ppg | #72 – 27.6 ppg |
| First Downs | #103 – 18.6/game | #72 – 20.3/game |
| Sacks Allowed | #71 – 23, 138 yards | #33 – 18, 95 yards |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed | #106 – 73, 275 yards | #9 – 46, 178 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #70 – 40.0% | #26 – 46.3% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #103 – 46.7% (7/15) | #136 – 16.7% (2/12) |
| Touchdowns | #60 – 43 total, 28 RZ | #69 – 41 total, 29 RZ |
| Red Zone Attempts | #62 – 45 | #53 – 47 |
| Red Zone Offense | #70 – 84% / 62% | #108 – 79% / 62% |
| Long Run Plays | #103 – 47/10, 9/20, 7/30, 2/40, 1/50 | #37 – 67/10, 23/20, 12/30, 9/40, 8/50 |
| Long Pass Plays | #41 – 118/10, 43/20, 25/30, 13/40, 8/50 | #98 – 95/10, 40/20, 17/30, 9/40, 6/50 |
Defense
Statistic |
Texas |
Michigan |
| Rushing Defense | #10 – 98.1 ypg | #14 – 101.7 ypg |
| Passing Defense | #101 – 237.6 ypg | #52 – 210.6 ypg |
| Total Defense | #36 – 335.7 ypg | #21 – 312.3 ypg |
| Scoring Defense | #23 – 19.8 ppg | #16 – 18.7 ppg |
| First Downs Allowed | #54 – 19.2/game | #33 – 18.0/game |
| Sacks | #6 – 38, 233 yards | #41 – 28, 239 yards |
| Tackles for Loss | #33 – 76, 327 yards | #50 – 72, 325 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #31 – 34.7% | #61 – 38.7% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #8 – 36% (9/25) | #88 – 57.7% (15/26) |
| Red Zone Attempts | #20 – 32 | #38 – 37 |
| Red Zone Defense | #45 – 81% / 62% | #66 – 84% / 51% |
| Long Run Plays Allowed | #26 – 41/10, 9/20, 2/30, 1/40 | #10 – 33/10, 10/20, 4/30, 3/40 |
| Long Pass Plays Allowed | #111 – 113/10, 38/20, 11/30, 6/40, 4/50 | #42 – 94/10, 37/20, 11/30, 3/40, 2/50 |
Michigan’s 51% TD RZ defense is tied for 17th
Other
Statistic |
Texas |
Michigan |
| Turnovers | #3 – 8 (7I, 1F) | #50 – 14 (7I, 7F) |
| Turnover Margin | #6 – 20:8 +12 | #39 – 18:14 +4 |
| Penaltiesπ | #131 – 96, 803 yards | #6 – 48, 413 yards |
πBased on total number of penalties.
Embarrassing that Texas has twice as many penalties as Michigan.
Match-up Comparison
Texas Offense |
Michigan Defense |
| Rushing Offense – 129.7 ypg | 101.7 ypg – Rushing Defense |
| Passing Offense – 253.2 ypg | 210.6 ypg – Passing Defense |
| Total Offense – 382.8 ypg | 312.3 ypg – Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense – 29.6 ppg | 18.7 ppg – Scoring Defense |
| First Downs – 18.6/game | 18.0/game – First Downs Allowed |
| 3rd Down Offense – 40.0% | 38.7% – 3rd Down Defense |
| 4th Down Offense – 46.7% | 57.7% – 4th Down Defense |
| Red Zone Offense – 84%/62% | 84%/51% – Red Zone Defense |
| LRP – 47/10, 9/20, 7/30, 2/40, 1/50 | 33/10, 10/20, 4/30, 3/40 – LRP Allowed |
| LPP – 118/10, 43/20, 25/30, 13/40, 8/50 | 94/10, 37/20, 11/30, 3/40, 2/50 – LPP Allowed |
Texas Defense |
Michigan Offense |
| Rushing Defense – 98.1 ypg | 213.2 ypg – Rushing Offense |
| Passing Defense – 237.6 ypg | 185.8 ypg – Passing Offense |
| Total Defense – 335.7 ypg | 398.9 ypg – Total Offense |
| Scoring Defense – 19.8 ppg | 27.6 ppg – Scoring Offense |
| First Downs Allowed – 19.2/game | 20.3/game – First Downs |
| 3rd Down Defense – 34.7% | 46.3% – 3rd Down Offense |
| 4th Down Defense – 36% | 16.7% – 4th Down Offense |
| Red Zone Defense – 81%/62% | 79%/62% – Red Zone Offense |
| LRP Allowed – 41/10, 9/20, 2/30, 1/40 | 67/10, 23/20, 12/30, 9/40, 8/50 – LRP |
| LPP Allowed – 113/10, 38/20, 11/30, 6/40, 4/50 | 95/10, 40/20, 17/30, 9/40, 6/50 – LPP |
BCF Toys
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | |
| Texas | No. 18: 0.86 | No. 37: 0.18 | No. 13: 0.57 | No. 8: 0.12 |
| Michigan | No. 21: 0.83 | No. 18: 0.43 | No. 32: 0.36 | No. 60: 0.01 |
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 38: 0.075 | No. 66: 0.475 | No. 26: 0.400 |
| Michigan | No. 20: 0.128 | No. 32: 0.542 | No. 28: 0.414 |
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 23: 0.87 | No. 42: 2.52 | No. 18: 1.65 |
| Michigan | No. 24: 0.87 | No. 33: 2.68 | No. 27: 1.82 |
This is the most stark difference and biggest edge for Michigan, especially on offense (very similar rankings for OAY above). As a reminder, Net Yards Per Play (NPP) is the difference between drive yards per offensive play (OPP) and drive yards allowed per opponent offensive play (DPP) on non-garbage, regulation drives in FBS vs. FBS games. Drive yards are calculated as the difference between starting field position and ending field position.
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 40: 0.54 | No. 65: 5.76 | No. 30: 5.22 |
| Michigan | No. 11: 1.69 | No. 19: 6.55 | No. 15: 4.86 |
| PVE | OVE | DVE | SVE | |
| Texas | No. 20: 0.49 | No. 48: 0.01 | No. 18: 0.39 | No. 8: 0.10 |
| Michigan | No. 23: 0.46 | No. 23: 0.21 | No. 39: 0.25 | No. 96: – 0.04 |
BCF’s F+ ratings (Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings combined with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings).
| F+ | OF+ | DF+ | SF+ | |
| Texas | No. 20: 1.14 | No. 38: 0.64 | No. 16: 1.24 | No. 14: 1.29 |
| Michigan | No. 22: 1.04 | No. 27: 0.86 | No. 19: 1.09 | No. 102: -0.60 |
The Longhorns do have a distinct edge statistically on special teams, but that can be addressed by the Wolverines by just not punting to Ryan Niblett. Let’s hope they want to gamble.
BCF Game Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas | Michigan | 0.503 | 0.1 | 25.0 | 24.9 | 49.9 |
My results for the Longhorns versus the BCF Projections:
Texas Longhorns Results – BCF Game Projections 2025 – Austin Horns Fan Dispatch
PFF
Texas has an overall grade of 91.0 and is ranked 13. Michigan’s overall grade is 90.6, ranked 18.
| Offense | Passing | Pass Blocking | Receiving | Run | Run Blocking | |
| UT | 81.6 | 82.8 | 69.4 | 78.1 | 81.9 | 68.6 |
| UM | 79.4 | 67.8 | 72.1 | 68.1 | 90.2 | 67.8 |
Texas Offense is ranked 30, Michigan is 39 (which is where the Aggies were ranked before we played them).
| Defense | Run D | Tackling | Pass Rush | Coverage | |
| UT | 90.3 | 91.9 | 86.3 | 83.9 | 78.3 |
| UM | 91.1 | 92.6 | 84.7 | 83.4 | 80.0 |
Michigan defense is No. 20, Texas is at 27. Texas rush defense is ranked 20, Michigan is 16.
Special Teams: Texas has a 80.5 grade and is ranked 28th. Michigan has a 87.0 grade and is ranked 9th.
Texas Game Notes:
13 Michigan (Media) – University of Texas Athletics
Some previews. Most of these are pretty long, and given the timing, I would probably watch the ESPN preview since it is under 8 minutes.
ESPN (7:28)
Inside Texas Football (24:44)
3rd & Longhorn
TCT Thoughts
I am actually really excited about this game. I am now a bit bummed I am not there to see it in person, having been at the other two games with Michigan. As much as the opt-out & “I am heading to the NFL” issues have impacted the bowl games and this Texas team, I still like watching bowl season football and, even more, cheering for the Longhorns. One of the Horns talked about how much it meant for them to play and win, and he said they were treating this just like the Red River Rivalry.
Given the roster remake on defense, as outlined above, how Texas defends the Michigan running game is the key. Part of that will be keeping an eye on Underwood, who is so good at seeing green and breaking good runs. A lot of men who don’t have a lot of pressure time game experience are going to have to step up and play their positions well to contain Underwood. The more I have worked on this edition, the more I am bummed about Taaffe’s decision. His leadership was so important. Which just means Next Man Up. Let’s see who is going to be a leader on defense. Assume that mantle now, and let’s play defense like we did against the Land Thieves (48 yards rushing, 3 interceptions, no touchdowns) and Aggies. Michigan protects the quarterback well (9th in sacks allowed), but Simmons is a beast, and I am hoping Justus Terry and a couple of the other young kids have big games.
I have a feeling we are going to see a really fun offensive day for Manning & Company. The Wolverine defense is excellent, but Sark has had a month to prepare and plan. He has his best weapon, some great receivers, and some excellent athleticism, if not experience, at running back. Wingo and Niblett have such great speed, and some fun plays with them could be big. I am expecting some 2 tight end and/or 2 back sets to help the running backs get push past the first layer. But, I don’t think we need big run production to win. We have won 9 games with the nation’s 101st ranked rushing attack. I believe between Manning, the 3 backs on the depth chart, and mixing in a little Niblett & Wingo, Texas could rush for about 135, which will be enough with Manning’s passing. I think Livingstone and Mosley have big days. Arch Manning with 2 passing touchdowns and one rushing score.
The biggest key to this game and Texas getting a win may be penalties. Michigan is very disciplined and plays clean ball. They average just four flags (and 34.4 yards) per game. Texas is double that, with 8 penalties and 66.9 yards per game. We have also had a few games where the penalties came at terrible times – e.g., giving up a third down after a stop with DPI, a holding call on a makeable third and 2 becomes tough third and 14. That kind of stuff will hurt. I worry with all the less experienced kids on defense, we may be even more prone to mistakes. Maybe not. But if Texas hands yards and first downs to Michigan, it will be hard to win.
Texas does have a nice edge in turnover margin, and if we can hold serve there and get to plus 1 or plus 2, that will give Texas an advantage that might tip the scale in a close game.
Special teams could be huge. Given how good Michigan’s redzone defense is vis-à-vis the touchdown, Mason Shipley may need to be our MVP.
Score predictions have been all over the place. Fremeau’s model shows a very, very close Texas win. Parker Fleming’s metrics give the edge to Michigan by less than 4 points. ESPN Analytics predicts a Texas win.
The romantic in me likes Texas with a 38-37 win, but I don’t think it will be quite that close. I am going with Texas wins 30-20. Make it 37 points if Texas gets a special teams or defensive score.
Texas and Michigan
I have shared this before, but it is a great memory for me. In December 2004, when news came that Texas would play Michigan in the Rose Bowl, my father Glenn soon called. He wanted to take Charles, Kathy, and me to Los Angeles to the Rose Bowl. Born in 1933, Glenn’s generation grew up at time when there were only a few bowls, most if not all on New Year’s Day, and none bigger than the Granddaddy, the Rose Bowl. It was a wonderful trip, 3 generations, a great game, and I will never forget the tears streaming down my father’s face when Texas won. It was one of the highlights of his life.
That night, Kathy and I went to dinner at Mastro’s. Waiting for our table, in came Braylon Edwards with his crew. Young Braylon Edwards, coming off a bitter, last-second defeat, could not have been more pleasant, more respectful, more friendly. One of the reasons I really like Michigan.
This is blue-blood matchup, the kind that would have made this one of the biggest bowl games of the year in the pre-CFP era. It is still a great college football game.
The winsipedia.com summary:
The University of Michigan
A really great American public university. Enrollment in 2025 is 53,488, with 35,358 undergraduates. UT Austin enrollment in 2025 is 55,000, with 44,314 undergraduates.
Academic Rankings |
||
National |
||
| Texas | Michigan | |
| Forbes | 46 | 29 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 30 | 20 |
| WSJ/College Pulse | 49 | 22 |
| Washington Monthly | 152 | 118 |
Global |
||
| ARWU | 49 | 30 |
| QS | 68 | 45 |
| THE | 20 | 23 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 65 | 21 |
Michigan was founded in 1817. UM is a founding member of the Association of American University.
Michigan’s famous alumni list is fairly amazing. President Gerald Ford, 47 U.S. senators, 215 congressmen, many Cabinet members, including Secretaries of State, Agriculture, and the Interior. UM alums have been involved in the founding of Alphabet Inc (Google – Larry Page), Merrill Lynch (Charles Edward Merrill), Loews (Tisch), Domino’s Pizza (Tom Monahan), H&R Block (Henry W. Bloch), Related Companies (Stephen M. Ross), Rocket Mortgage (Gary Gilbert). Alumni have been at the top of some of America’s greatest companies, including Charlie Munger (Berkshire Hathaway, )and one or more leaders through the years of Ford, GM, Boeing, Wells Fargo, American Airlines, General Mills, Chrysler, International Paper, PNC, Allstate, and Bain Capital.
In entertainment, some great people, including James Earl Jones and Gilda Radner.
Three Michigan Men have won the Heisman Trophy – Tom Harmon, Desmond Howard, and Charles Woodson. Tom Brady did will in the NFL. Barry Larkin played baseball at Michigan, and Michael Phelps swam for the Wolverines.
College Football Playoffs – Quarterfinals
Wednesday December 31
No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (11-2) vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1), The Cotton Bowl Classic, 6:30 p.m. on ESPN from AT&T Stadium. Two great defenses. Buckeyes are favored by 9.5, over/under is 40.5. Will be fun to watch this game after the Texas win.
BCF Game Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Ohio State | Miami | .742 | 9.6 | 25.0 | 15.4 | 40.4 |
Parker Fleming’s CFB Graphs:
No. 5 Oregon Ducks (12-1) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl, 11:00 a.m. on ESPN from Miami Gardens. The South Plains Aggies are in for a tough game, but I think Jacob Rodriguez and the Tech defense is going to be able to keep the Duck offense in check for the most part. Oregon favored by 2.5, over/under is 51.5. The models don’t agree. I think we are in for very close game. Tech to cover the line.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Oregon | Texas Tech | .671 | 6.5 | 26.5 | 20.0 | 46.5 |
No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3) vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (13-0), The Rose Bowl, 3:00 p.m. on ESPN from Pasadena. Hoosiers favored by 7 points, total is just 47.5, and the models all love Mendoza and the Hoosiers. Indiana is very good, but the last time they played in the Rose Bowl was 1967, and Alabama has been there, and won, many times. Including one that still stings. Alabama will cover the betting line.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Hoosiers | Crimson Tide | .790 | 11.9 | 29.8 | 17.9 | 47.8 |
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (12-1) vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (12-1), in the Sugar Bowl, 7:00 p.m. on ESPN from New Orleans. This is going to be a great game. Really looking forward to seeing the Trinidad Chambliss story continue, and of course there is the hope that the Rebels continue to march toward a national championship since Lane Kiffin left them to go win a national championship. Love all my Georgia brothers, but Hotty Toddy. Bulldogs favored by 6.5, over/under is 55.5.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Georgia | Ole Miss | .664 | 6.2 | 32.4 | 26.2 | 58.7 |
Bowl Games
Tuesday December 30
Tennessee Volunteers fell to Illinois 30-28 in the Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl. Tennessee was a 3 point favorite.
Texas Christian Horned Frogs 30, No. 16 Southern Cal Trojans 27 in overtime. What a fun football game. Southern Cal was favored by 4.5, BCF projected a 12.3 point Trojans win, and CFB Graphs projected 28.79 to 23.56 Southern Cal. Big win for Sonny Dykes and the horny toads.
Wednesday December 31
No. 23 Iowa (8-4) vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt (10-2), in the ReliaQuest Bowl, 11:00 a.m. on ESPN. Commodores favored by 4, over/under is 46.5.
Arizona State (8-4) vs. Duke (8-5), in the Sun Bowl, 1:00 p.m. on CBS from El Paso. Officially the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl. Blue Devils favored by 3, over/under is 49.5.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-5) vs. No. 15 Utah Utes (10-2), in the Las Vegas Bowl, 2:30 p.m. on ESPN. Utes favored by 14, over/under is 50.5. Going to be tough for Nebraska. BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Utah | Nebraska | .873 | 16.6 | 35.5 | 18.9 | 54.5 |
Friday January 2
Rice (5-7) vs. Texas State (6-6) in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, 12:00 noon on ESPN from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. Bobcats favored by 13.5, over/under is 58.5. Interesting matchup.
Navy (10-2) vs. Cincinnati (7-5) in the Autozone Liberty Bowl, 3:30 p.m. on ESPN from Memphis . Midshipmen favored by 7, over/under is 54.5. Hope Navy crushes them.
No. 17 Arizona Wildcats (9-3) vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs (8-4), in the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl , 7:00 p.m. on FOX from San Diego. Trust & Will is an online platform you can use to draft your own will or trust agreement. Not a good idea. Call me, and I will connect you with Sam Hildebrand. Much better! Apparently, one of the in-game contests will be fans tossing footballs into caskets. The Holiday Bowl seems like a poor choice for their sponsorship. The Las Vegas Bowl, on the other hand… Arizona favored by 3 over the Ponies, over/under is 51.5.
Wake Forest (8-4) vs. Mississippi State (5-7) in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, 7:00 p.m. on ESPN form Charlotte. Bulldogs are favored by 3, over/under is 53.5.
College Football Playoffs – First Round Results
No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide 34, No. 8 Oklahoma Land Thieves 24. After jumping out to a 17-0 lead, the Land Thieves got rolled as Ty Simpson found his footing and got the Crimson Tide on track. It was tied 17-17 at the half after an Alabama pick 6 on Mateer. The second half wasn’t any better for Oklahoma. The Land Thieves are now 0-5 in College Football Playoff games. It was an entertaining game, and the underdog Crimson Tide got the road upset to get the right to play Indiana in the Rose Bowl. BCF and CFB Graphs had OU, ESPN’s analytics had Alabama.
No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 10, No. 7 Texas A. and M. Aggies 3. The Aggies were favored by 3.5 and didn’t even cover that. Credit to the Texas Agricultural & Mechanical defense, as they did shut down Carson Beck, who was only 14/20 for 103 yards and 1 touchdown. However, Cane RB Mark Fletcher had 172 yards on 17 carries, and Beck’s touchdown pass to Malichi Toney was all Miami needed to upset the Aggies. BCF and ESPN predicted an Aggie win, CFB Graphs had Miami, albeit a projected score of 28 to 25. Marcel Reed’s interception and two interceptions didn’t help, although neither led to points. But that last one in endzone which sealed the win for the Hurricanes was a killer.
No. 11 Tulane Green Wave 10, No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels 41. No Kiffin, no problem. The Rebs lit up Tulane, led by Trinidad Chambliss who was 23/29 for 282 yards and a touchdown and he rushed for 2 more, finishing with a QBR of 93.2. For the Green Wave, Jake Retzlaff had a rough day, 20/35 for 306, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR for 37.2. All predictive models had Ole Miss, and the Rebels comfortably covered the line. Hotty Toddy.
No. 12 James Madison Dukes 34, No. 5 Oregon Ducks 51. Despite margin, noteworthy that JMU put up the most points on Oregon this season, even more than Indiana (30) in the Ducks’ sole loss. Looks nice, but it was 34-6 Oregon at the half. All the models had Oregon, but the Dukes did cover. And, as of Sunday, all 11 JMU offensive starters are gone – 4 by graduation and 7 hitting the portal.
Bowl Games Results
A few games of note that I watched a bit of.
UT San Antonio Roadrunners 57, Florida International 20 in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl. Good win for Coach Traylor and his kids to end the season a high note. Owen McCown was 18/28 for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns. UTSA covered. Birds Up!
Army 41, Connecticut 16, in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl. Great win for the Black Knights. Go Army!
No. 22 Georgia Tech 21, No. 12 Brigham Young 25 in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. I thought the Yellow Jackets had it, but they were shutout in the second half and gave up 15 fourth quarter points.
Miami Redhawks 3, Fresno State 18 in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl.
No. 25 North Texas 49, San Diego State 47, in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl. Line was UNT by 3. Of note, most of the Mean Green offensive starters are leaving Denton. Just hard to like the New World.
No. 19 Virginia Cavaliers 13, Missouri 7 in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. Great win for UVA who win 11 games in a season for the first time ever. Go Hoos!
Louisiana State Tigers 35, No. 21 Houston Cougars 38 in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl. A very good football game with over 69,000 in attendance. Glad you were there to see it Joe! Hometown Cougars were favored by 3.
Rest of the scores here, if you are curious.
College Football Schedule Bowls, 2025 Postseason – ESPN
Texas Men’s Basketball
The Longhorns finished their pre-conference schedule with a 9-4 record, with one win over a ranked team (102-97 over NC State). The Horns open SEC play this Saturday evening against Mississippi State at The Moody Center, 5:00 p.m., broadcast on the SEC Network That is followed by road games against Tennessee (Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. on ESPN2) and Alabama (Saturday, January 10, 7:00 p.m. on ESPN).
Texas Women’s Basketball
The No. 2 Longhorns are 15-0. They open SEC play on the road New Year’s Day in Columbia with a 6:30 p.m. game with the Missouri Tigers (SECN+). They will be home to play Ole Miss on Sunday, 2:00 p.m. at the Moody Center (ESPN2).
Texas Baseball
Texas opens with UC Davis on Friday February 13. 45 days!
Jody Conradt
Jody Conradt, one of the greatest coaches in Texas history, is retiring from her fulltime appointment. Over 49 years on The Forty Acres. Legend.
Texas Longhorns coaching and athletics administration legend Jody Conradt completes career
ESPN’s FPI
2025 College Football Power Index – ESPN
Bill Connelly’s SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing.
Indiana at No. 1, Ohio State at 2, followed by Texas Tech, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, Miami (FL), and Land Thieves. Texas is 16, Michigan is 17.
PFF Power Rankings
Kelley Ford Ratings
https://kfordratings.com/power
Max Olson’s Defensive Stop Rates
2025 college football SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams – ESPN
PFF Grades
Music
A few weeks ago, on December 3, the great Steve Cropper died at the age of 84. A few of you may recognize the name, but anyone from my generation (or close to it) will immediately remember who he is if you watched the Blues Brothers. Guitarist for Jake and Elwood, playing himself, The Colonel. But long before the Blues Brothers, Cropper was a music legend. He co-founded the Stax Records house band, the Mar-Keys; Stax is the legendary record company founded in Memphis in 1957, some of the best soul ever recorded, including artists like Otis Redding. Cropper was in a local band originally called the Royal Spades, but that was changed to the Mar-Keys before recording their biggest hit, “Last Night”, that went to No. 3 on the pop chart and No. 2 on the R&B charts. Cropper worked with fellow Memphian Booker Taliaferro Jones, Jr., known to you as Booker T of Booker T. & the M.G.’s, a band they co-founded (and which supplanted the Mar-Keys as the Stax house band). Cropper wrote “Green Onions”, a great hit and classic. Also in the band was Donald “Duck” Dunn, on bass, who played with Cropper in the Blues Brothers too.
Over the years, Cropper played with some of the greatest, including Wilson Pickett, Sam & Dave, Otis Redding, and Neil Young. He also co-wrote “In the Midnight Hour” and “Sittin’ On the Dock of The Bay.
The Mar-Keys, Last Night
Sam & Dave, Soul Man, on the Midnight Special. Cropper on guitar. “Come on Steve”. Did you know they were talking to Cropper?
Blues Brothers, Soul Man, on SNL, 1978. “Play it Steve” at about 2:38. 99% sure I watched this live.
Booker T. & The M.G.’s, Green Onions.
An interview with Cropper, on writing Green Onions
Otis Redding, (Sittin’ On) the Dock of The Bay
Wilson Pickett, In the Midnight Hour.
This golden clip of Booker T & The MG’s with the Mar-Keys, live in Oslo Norway in 1967
Jim Nicar
1927: U.T. Austin President Harry Benedict made it a personal tradition to send out holiday cards with poems he’d composed. This one was mailed to UT alumni across the state.
From Jim’s post on X on December 23, 2025.
Picture of the Week
This photo is from JType’s December 29, 2025, post on Instagram.
On X: @tctayloratx
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Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371