No. 16 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 3 Texas Longhorns
The Texas Longhorns host the first ever FBS college football playoff game in the State of Texas on Saturday. Kickoff is a little after 3:00 p.m. at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium. The game will be broadcast on TNT and MAX. Dave Pasch with the play-by-play, Land Thief Dusty Dvoracek with analysis, and Taylor McGregor and Laura Rutledge on the sidelines. Listen around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns, Craig Way, Roger Wallace with analysis, and Lifetime Longhorn Will Matthews reporting on the sidelines. Texas opened as a 10.5 point favorite. Line early Friday morning is Texas minus 12. The over/under is 51.5, and the money lines are Texas minus 450, Clemson plus 340. Mid 60s and sunny in Austin. God did indeed bless Texas.
Texas Longhorns
All-Americans.
- Kelvin Banks, Jr. Unanimous All-American. The 25th in Texas football’s glorious history.
- Jahdae Barron, Consensus All-American
- Banks & Barron – AP first team All-Americans
- Hill, Collins, and Taaffe – AP second team All-Americans.
- Banks & Barron – Sporting News first team All-Americans
- Anthony Hill, Jr. – Sporting News second team All-American
- Banks & Barron, first team Football Writers Association of America All-Americans
- Banks, Barron, & Taaffe, PFF first team All-Americans.
The 2024 Clemson Tigers
Talking about Clemson has to start with their great head coach, William Christopher “Dabo” Swinney. Dabo has been at Clemson since 2003, head coach since 2009, and is the winningest coach in Clemson history and ACC history. 180-46 overall, 12-8 in bowl games, and 6-4 in the College Football Playoffs. Coach Swinney will have his Tigers ready to play the Longhorns. The nickname? His infant older brother Tripp called him “that boy”, and it came out sounding like “Dabo”. It stuck.
Clemson Offense
Westlake Chapparal Cade Klubnik (#2, 6-2, 210, Junior) is a very good, arguably great, college quarterback. His numbers: 252/443, for a 65.7% completion percentage. 3,303 yards, 33 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions. 254.1 yards per game. A rating of 148.61, and a QBR of 78.9. When Cade has struggled, Clemson loses: in his 10 wins, he averaged 8.2 yards per attempt, thrown for 32 touchdowns, and been intercepted 3 times; in the 3 losses, 5.4 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions. Texas has to get pressure on him, but also contain him. Klubnik can run. Second on the team with 106 rushes for 458 yards and 7 touchdowns. He is 12th in the nation in total offense. As Klubnik goes, Clemson goes. Texas needs to make sure that Cade is intimately reacquainted with Texas soil.
Running back Phil Mafah (#7, 6-1, 230 lbs, Senior) is the other big leg of the Tiger offense. 1,106 yards on the season, 85 yards per game (he had 1 run this season of 83 yards), and 8 touchdowns. 5.17 yards per attempt. 19 catches for 88 yards. He is playing with a shoulder injury that will require surgery after the season. He will play, but his effectiveness may be limited. Probably more than he realizes against the Texas front 7. The next RB on the team, Jay Haynes, has 43 rushes for 295 yards and 3 scores. That includes a long of 70.
The Clemson receivers are led by Antonio Williams (#0, 5-11, 190 lbs, Sophomore), who has 71 catches for 838 yards and 10 touchdowns, 11.8 yards per catch. He is also 2 for 2 passing with a score and a quarterback rating of 525.4. Williams is Klubnik’s top target by a wide margin. The next guy is Bryant Wesco Jr. (#12, 6-2, 180 lbs, Junior from Midlothian Texas ), who has 38 catches for 678 yards (long of 76) and 5 scores, averaging a whopping 17.8 yards per catch. T.J. Moore (No. 1, 6-3, 200 lbs, freshman) has 36 catches for 535 yards and 4 scores, 14.9 yards per catch.
Big tight end Jake Briningstool (No. 9, 6-6, 240 pounds, Senior) has 45 catches for 461 yards and 7 touchdowns, averaging 10.2 yards per catch.
Clemson Defense
The Tigers defense is led by their 3 linebackers and 2 safeties. Barrett Carter (No. 0, 6-1, 230 lbs Senior linebacker), 76 tackles (39 solo), 3.5 sacks for 22 yards, 10.5 TFL for 43 yards, and 7 passes defended. Wade Woodaz (No. 17, 6-3, 235, junior linebacker), 74 tackles (39 solo), 3 sacks for 25 yards, 8 TFL for 38 yards, 4 passes defended, 1 interception. Sammy Brown (No. 47, 6-2, 235 lbs, freshman linebacker), 70 tackles (42 solo), 5 sacks for 33 yards, 10.5 TFL 46 yards, 3 passes defended. R.J. Mickens (No. 9 6 foot, 210 lbs Senior safety from Southlake), 68 tackles (39 solo), 5.5 TFL for 17 yards, 6 PD, 1 interception. Khalil Barnes (No. 7, 6 foot, 195 lbs sophomore safety), 56 tackles (33 solo), 3 PD, 4 interceptions.
Big defensive end T.J. Parker (No. 3, 6-3, 265 lbs sophomore) has 54 tackles (32 solo), 11 sacks for 68 yards, and 19 TFL for 92, plus 6 forced fumbles.
Clemson Special Teams
PK Nolan Hauser is 17/23. 8/10 under 29, 6/7 30-39, 1/4 40-49, and 2/2 over 50. Punter Aidan Swanson averages 41.5 yards per punt.
Clemson’s Season
Clemson got off to a tough start in 2024 with an ugly 34-3 loss to No. 1 Georgia. Dabo righted the ship, and the Tigers reeled off 6 straight wins before stumbling against Louisville. Three wins before falling to No. 15 South Carolina 17-14. Here is how the Clemson season played out, and some of the key players in each game. And recall, the only reason they got in the ACC Championship Game, which in turn got them to Austin, was Syracuse upsetting the Miami Hurricanes in week 14.
Game 1: Loss to No. 1 Georgia 34-3. Clemson was preseason No. 14. Cade Klubnik had a rough game, 18/29 for 142 yards and 1 pick, -17 yards (1 sack), and a 37 QBR. Antonio Williams caught 6 passes for 76 yards. Phil Mafah carried 16 times for 59 yards. Wade Woodaz had 8 tackles, 1 TFL. Peter Woods had 6, 1 sack, 2.5 TFL.
Game 2: 66-20 win over Appalachian State. Clemson had dropped to No. 25. Klubnik was 24/26 for 378 yards, 5 touchdowns, rushed for 2 more touchdowns, and had a QBR of 99.6. Bryan Wesco Jr. had 3 catches for 130 yards and a score, Jake Briningstool 7 catches for 100 yards and 2 scores. Phil Mafah had 118 yards and 1 TD on 10 carries, but a long of 83. Sammy Brown led Clemson with had 9 tackles. Clemson picked off 2 passes.
Game 3: 59-35 win over North Carolina State. Klubnik 16/24 for 209 and 3 TDs, rushed for 70 yards and 1 TD (55 yarder), 99.4 QBR. Adam Randall 5 catches for 69 yards and 1 touchdown. Antonio Williams 3 catches for 39 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sammy Brown, 8 tackles, 4 TFL. Barrett Carter and R.J. Mickens each with 7 tackles. Ashton Hampton with an interception.
Game 4: 40-14 win over Stanford. Klubnik 15/31 for 255 yards, 4 TDs, 1 pick, rushed for 48 yards and a score, and a QBR of 72.1. Mafah only ran for 58 yards on 10 carries. Wesco 2 catches for 104 yards and a score, Cole Turner 3 catches for 61 yards and a score. Barrett Carter, Mickens, and Woodaz all with 10 tackles. Carter had 3.5 TFL and a sack.
Game 5: 29-13 win at Florida State. Klubnik 19/33 for 235 yards and 2 TDs, ran for 62 yards on 11 carries, QBR of 89. Mafah lit up the Seminoles with 154 yards on 25 carries – 6.2 ypc. Williams 3 catches for 84 yards and a score, T.J. Moore 2 catches for 39 yards and a score. Woodaz and Carter with 10 tackles each. Florida State held to 22 yards rushing.
Game 6: 49-14 win at Wake Forest. Klubnik 31/41 for 309 yards and 3 TDs, ran for 30 yards, QBR of 90.2. Mafah 19 carries, 108 yards, 2 scores. Briningstool 7 catches for 104 yards and a score, Troy Stellato 6 catches for 72 yards and a score, and Williams 6 catches for 69 yards and a score. Williams also threw a 28 yard pass for a touchdown. Woodaz 6 tackles, 1.5 TFL, sack.
Game 7: 48-31 win over Virginia. Klubnik 23/35 for 308 yards, 3 TDs, 1 pick; rushed for 29 yards. 75.3 QBR. Mafah 18 carries, 78 yards, 2 scores. T.J. Moore 4 catches for 78 yards, 1 TD; Stellato 7 catches for 74 yards. Woodaz 7 tackles.
Game 8: 33-21 loss to Louisville. Klubnik with a bit of an off game, 33/56, 228 yards, 1 score, rushed for 43 yards, QBR of 46.5. Mafah carried 30 times for 171 yards and 2 scores. Woodaz with 11 tackles
Game 9: 24-14 win at Virginia Tech. Klubnik 16/34 for 211 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, rushed for 30 yards on 15 attempts. QBR of 64. Mafah 128 yards on 26 carries. Sammy Brown, 8 tackles.
Game 10: 24-20 win at Pitt. One of Clemson’s best wins of the year as Klubnik broke off a 50 yard touchdown run with less than 90 seconds left in the game to give the Tigers the lead. 27/41 for 288 yards and 2 TDs, 10 rushes for 41 yards (exactly) and a score. Mafah was really shutdown – 17 yards on 17 carries. Williams with 13 catches for 149 yards and 2 scores. Carter with 12 tackles and 2 TFL, Mickens with 10 tackles. Parker had 4 sacks.
Game 11: 51-14 win over The Citadel. Klubnik only played part of the game and was 12/16 for 198 yards and 3 scores, rushed for 34 yards, QBR of 95.2. Mafah limited action (3 carries for 14 yards to go over 1,000 on the season, then rested). Jay Haynes led the Tigers with 5 carries for 118 yards and 2 TDs (including a 70 yard run). Sammy Brown 11 tackles.
Game 12: 17-14 loss to No. 15 South Carolina. Klubnik 24/36 for 280 yards, an interception; rushed 10 times for 62 yards and 2 scores. QBR of 89.6. Mafah 20 carries for 66 yards. Sammy Brown 9 tackles and a sack.
Game 13 – ACC Championship: 34-31 win over No. 8 Southern Methodist. Clemson jumped out to a 21-7 halftime lead and withstood the Ponies 4th quarter 17-point surge, as Hauser kicked a 56 yard game winner as time expired to win it for the Tigers. Klubnik 24/41 for 262 yards, 4 touchdowns, no picks; rushed for 21 yards on 14 carries. Mafah just 28 yards on 13 rushes. Wesco 8 catches for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mustang QB Kevin Jennings 31/50 for 304 yards and 3 TDs, and he ran for 1. He also fumbled once and was intercepted once. Sammy Brown, 14 tackles. Aveion Terrell 9 tackles, all solo.
The Statistics
Offense
Statistic |
Texas Longhorns |
Clemson Tigers |
| Rushing Offense | #64 – 164.4 ypg | #43 – 180.9 ypg |
| Passing Offense | #13 – 281.0 ypg | #17 – 274.1 ypg |
| Total Offense | #18 – 445.4 ypg | #12 – 454.9 ypg |
| Scoring Offense | #25 – 33.6 ppg | #16 – 35.5 ppg |
| First Downs | #29 – 22.4/game | #8 – 24.4/game |
| Sacks Allowed | #87 – 28, 169 yards | #59 – 22, 141 yards |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed | #124 – 89, 341 yards | #85 – 71, 248 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #33 – 43.68% | #24 – 45.16% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #46 – 58.3%, 14/24 | #37 – 61.1%, 11/18 |
| Red Zone Attempts | #8 – 59 | #32 – 49 |
| Red Zone Offense | #93 – 81% / 66% | #40 – 88% / 61% |
| Long Run Plays | #70 – 59/10, 24/20, 7/30, 5/40 | #20 – 77/10, 19/20, 9/30, 6/40 |
| Long Pass Plays | #12 – 143/10, 65/20, 27/30, 13/40 | #20 – 136/10, 52/20, 24/30, 13/40 |
Defense
Statistic |
Texas Longhorns |
Clemson Tigers |
| Rushing Defense | #14 – 106.4 ypg | #73 – 150.5 ypg |
| Passing Defense | #1 – 143.1 ypg | #61 – 214.4 ypg |
| Total Defense | #3 – 249.5 ypg | #66 – 364.9 ypg |
| Scoring Defense | #2 – 12.5 ppg | #43 – 22.3 ppg |
| First Downs Allowed | #3 – 15.1/game | #73 – 20.1/game |
| Sacks | #9 – 38, 264 yards | #25 – 33, 194 yards |
| Tackles for Loss | #7 – 95, 402 yards | #13 – 90, 343 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #6 – 30.56% | #41 – 35.52% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #42 – 48.2%, 13/27 | #34 – 46.7%, 7/15 |
| Red Zone Attempts | #1 – 28 | #65 – 42 |
| Red Zone Defense | #7 – 71% / 46% | #51 – 81% / 60% |
| Long Run Plays Allowed | #9 – 38/10, 3/20, 2/30, 2/40 | #113 – 71/10, 26/20, 8/30, 6/40 |
| Long Pass Plays Allowed | #1 – 68/10, 22/20, 6/30, 4/40 | #93 – 112/10, 41/20, 17/30, 5/40 |
Other
Statistic |
Texas Longhorns |
Clemson Tigers |
| Turnovers | #114 – 22, 11F, 11I | #9 – 9, 3F, 6I |
| Turnover Margin | #33 – 28:22 +6 | #2 – 25:9 +16 |
| Penalties | #107 – 85, 698 yards | #34 – 64, 602 yards |
*Based on total number of penalties.
Match-up Comparison
Texas Offense |
Clemson Defense |
| Rushing Offense – 164.4 ypg | 150.5 ypg – Rushing Defense |
| Passing Offense – 281.0 ypg | 214.4 ypg – Passing Defense |
| Total Offense – 445.4 ypg | 364.9 ypg – Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense – 33.6 ppg | 22.3 ppg – Scoring Defense |
| First Downs – 22.4/game | 20.1/game – First Downs Allowed |
| 3rd Down Offense – 43.68% | 35.52% – 3rd Down Defense |
| 4th Down Offense – 58.3% | 46.7% – 4th Down Defense |
| Red Zone Offense – 81%/66% | 81%/60% – Red Zone Defense |
| LRP – 59/10, 24/20, 7/30, 5/40 | 71/10, 26/20, 8/30, 6/40 – LRP Allowed |
| LPP – 143/10, 65/20, 27/30, 13/40 | 112/10, 41/20, 17/30, 5/40 – LPP Allowed |
Texas Defense |
Clemson Offense |
| Rushing Defense – 106.4 ypg | 180.9 ypg – Rushing Offense |
| Passing Defense – 143.1 ypg | 274.1 ypg – Passing Offense |
| Total Defense – 249.5 ypg | 454.9 ypg – Total Offense |
| Scoring Defense – 12.5 ppg | 35.5 ppg – Scoring Offense |
| First Downs Allowed – 15.1/game | 24.4/game – First Downs |
| 3rd Down Defense – 30.56% | 45.16% – 3rd Down Offense |
| 4th Down Defense – 48.2% | 61.1% – 4th Down Offense |
| Red Zone Defense – 71%/46% | 88%/61% – Red Zone Offense |
| LRP Allowed – 38/10, 3/20, 2/30, 2/40 | 77/10, 19/20, 9/30, 6/40 – LRP |
| LPP Allowed – 68/10, 22/20, 6/30, 4/40 | 136/10, 52/20, 24/30, 13/40 – LPP |
Some individual notes on Texas:
- Jahdae Barron is tied for 3rd nationally with 5 interceptions.
- Andrew Mukuba is tied for 18th nationally with 4 interceptions.
- Anthony Hill Jr. is 11th nationally 16 TFL.
Stop Rate
I couldn’t find an updated Stop Rate ranking. Recall Texas was No. 1 after the regular season with an 81.8% stop rate, allowing 0.86 points per drive. Clemson was No. 26, with a 69.4% stop rate, allowing 1.71 points per drive.
Explosive Plays
For my analysis, I am classifying any play over 20 yards as explosive.
| Texas | Clemson | |
| EP Rushing | #19 –24/20, 7/30, 5/40, 2/50. 1/60 | #43 – 19/20, 11/30, 5/40, 5/50, 2/60 |
| EP Passing | #3 – 65/20, 27/30, 13/40, 6/50, 1/60 | #11 – 52/20, 24/30, 13/40, 5/50, 2/60 |
| Explosive Plays | #2 – 89/20, 34/30, 18/40, 8/50, 2/60 | #10 – 71/20, 35/30, 18/40, 10/50. 4/60 |
| Texas | Clemson | |
| EP Rushes Allowed | #1 –3/20, 2/30, 2/40, 1/50, 0 | #128 – 26/20, 8/30, 6/40, 1/50, 0 |
| EP Passes Allowed | #3 – 22/20, 6/30, 4/40, 0/50, 0 | #91 – 41/20, 17/30, 5/40, 2/50, 2/60 |
| EP Allowed | #1 – 26/20, 8/30, 6/40, 1/50, 0 | #123 – 67/20, 25/30, 11/40, 3/50, 2/60 |
The upside takeaway is that while the Clemson offense base stats have the Tigers as the higher rated team, the Longhorns are more explosive. Not by a wide margin, but by enough for a likelihood that a few big plays by Ewers and the Horns might be decisive – even better, it may lead to a bigger win that anyone is expecting. Obviously, the elite Texas defense and its extraordinary effectiveness against explosivity further expands that possible outcome.
BCF Toys
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | |
| Texas | No. 4: 1.26 | No. 19: 0.33 | No. 1: 0.87 | No. 35: 0.04 |
| Clemson | No. 16: 0.81 | No. 12: 0.41 | No. 23: 0.43 | No. 88: -0.03 |
Georgia’s OFEI was 0.43 and DFEI was 0.53.
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 2: 0.269 | No. 21: 0.556 | No. 1: 0.287 |
| Clemson | No. 14: 0.153 | No. 28: 0.537 | No. 17: 0.385 |
Clemson is better than Georgia in NAY (UGA was 0.101) and DAY (UGA was 0.437), same in OAY.
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 4: 1.99 | No. 20: 2.90 | No. 1: 0.91 |
| Clemson | No. 14: 1.14 | No. 26: 2.80 | No. 20: 1.66 |
Again, Clemson better than Georgia in NPD and DPD, about the same on OPD.
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 2: 2.51 | No. 26: 6.41 | No. 1: 3.90 |
| Clemson | No. 18: 1..28 | No. 16: 6.55 | No. 32: 5.27 |
Texas is No. 1 in D4+, No. 1 in D7+, and No. 1 in D10+
Like other stats Clemson better than Georgia in Net and Defense, similar in Offense.
Possession Efficiency. Possession Efficiency (PVE) is unadjusted scoring value calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions (NP) in FBS vs. FBS games.
| PVE | OVE | DVE | SVE | |
| Texas | No. 4: 09.4 | No. 25: 0.18 | No. 2: 0.77 | No. 82: -0.02 |
| Clemson | No. 17: 0.55 | No. 19: 0.19 | No. 22: 0.35 | No. 118: – 0.07 |
In BCF’s F+ ratings (Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings combined with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings), Texas is No. 3. Offensively, Texas is No. 14; defensively, Texas is No. 1. Tigers are No. 15, No. 13 offense, No. 21 defense.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas | Clemson | 0.804 | 12.6 | 32.4 | 19.7 | 52.1 |
ESPN Analytics:
Opponents & Records
| Texas | Clemson |
| W – Colorado State, 52-0. 8-4 | L – No. 11 Georgia, 34-3. 11-2 |
| W– @ No. 10 Michigan, 31-12. 7-5 | W – Appalachian State, 66-20. 5-6 |
| W – UTSA, 56-7. 6-6 | W – NC State, 59-35. 6-6 |
| W – Louisiana Monroe, 51-3. 5-7 | W – Stanford, 40-14. 3-9 |
| W – Mississippi State, 35-13. 2-10 | W – @ Florida State, 29-13. 2-10 |
| W – No. 18 Oklahoma, 34-3. 6-6 | W – @ Wake Forest, 49-14. 4-8 |
| L – No. 5 Georgia, 30-15. 11-2 | W – Virginia, 48-31. 5-7 |
| W – @ No. 25 Vanderbilt, 27-24. 6-6 | L – Louisville, 33-21. 8-4 |
| W- Florida, 49-17. 7-5 | W – @ Virginia Tech, 24-14. 6-6 |
| W – @ Arkansas, 20-10. 6-6 | W – Pitt Panthers, 24-20. 7-5 |
| W – Kentucky, 31-14: 4-8 | W – The Citadel, 51-14. 5-7 |
| W – @ No. 20 Texas A. and M., 17-7. 8-4 | L – No. 15 South Carolina, 17-14. 9-3 |
| L – No. 5 Georgia, 22-19. 11-2 | W – No. 8 SMU, 34-31. 11-2 |
- Texas has four wins over teams with winning records, and four wins over teams 6-6.
- Clemson has two wins over teams with winning records, and two wins over teams 6-6.
- 8 of the Longhorn wins are against teams that are .500 or better (all bowl-eligible, best in nation tied with Syracuse)
- 4 of the Clemson wins are against teams that are .500 or better.
Of note, the Georgia at Texas game was the highest rated college football game (not counting conference championship games), with 13.19 million viewers.
The official Game Notes from The University of Texas:
CFP First Round – Clemson (PDF) – University of Texas Athletics
TCT Thoughts
Honestly, I got tired of writing week after week that the key to a Longhorn win was not making mistakes – no turnovers, no stupid penalties. Looking back at the whole season, it turns out that was in fact the key to our wins, and in my opinion, the reason for our two losses to Georgia. The Longhorns were good enough, particularly on defense, to overcome mistakes against good football teams. Even the Texas Agricultural and Mechanical Aggies. But not good enough to overcome those mistakes against Georgia. Now that we’re in a tournament, we are just one of the 12 best teams in the nation, opening play against one of the best coaches in FBS the last 15 years. He has an outstanding quarterback in Cade Klubnik. The mighty Texas defense should be able to dominate enough for Texas to win, but at some point, giving a good football team, short fields and opportunities to score will bite you in the butt. So I lead the “TCT Thoughts” with my usual close, and that is Texas has to not just win the turnover battle, but not turn the ball over at all. The offensive line has got to avoid mistakes like jumping offsides on third and 2 or holding on second and 6. Same goes for the receivers, who have had more than their fair share of holding calls this year. Texas is the better football team, but I think Southern Methodist was the better team in the ACC championship game. The Mustangs turned the ball over twice: a fumble that Clemson capitalized on with short field (33 yards) to take a 7-0 lead. The Jennings interception was also in SMU territory, but Clemson missed the 44 yard field goal.
To hammer the importance of turnovers and penalties: Texas is terrible in both categories (114th in turnovers, 107th in penalties), and Clemson is very good (9th in turnovers) and pretty good (34th in penalties). Texas has to close that gap on Saturday.
Another key for Texas: get points in the third quarter. These somnambulant second half starts must stop. Texas needs to extend first half leads, not open the door for the other team to get back in the game.
With that is the backdrop, I think the next big key to the game is Quinn Ewers. Obviously, the issue of the turnovers rest largely on his shoulders. Especially the costly ones the last month or two. I really think Quinn is a better quarterback than he’s playing, and I hope we see the best Quinn Ewers on Saturday. If Quinn (and the rest of the Longhorns) can avoid turning the ball over, I think Texas can win by three scores.
The key to helping Quinn avoid turnovers will be the offensive line and providing protection. Especially against T.J. Parker, who is 7th nationally with 11 sacks this season and 4th nationally with 19 TFL. Having Kelvin Banks Jr. back will be a big difference maker, especially if he’s close to 100%. But the rest of the line has got to step up and play their best ball for the next four games. And if they don’t, there won’t be three more games after Saturday. Quintrevion Wisner and the running backs have got to get it in gear, and the line is going to have to help them find those gears. We know that Wisner can run the ball. We need some production from Blue and Gibson too.
The receivers – all of them – have to play much better in Austin this Saturday than they did in Atlanta two weeks ago. All those dropped balls were, like turnovers and penalties, mistakes. Not championship football. I am hoping Bond is back and healthy. We need him.
Lastly, on offense, Arch Manning. As I wrote last week, Quinn’s team, Quinn’s chance to get us to the next round. However, Manning is a weapon that I hope Sark will not hesitate to deploy.
The Texas defense can and probably will win the game on Saturday for the Longhorns. This by far the best defense that Clemson has faced since their opening season loss to Georgia. By every statistic and metric, Texas should be able to limit Dabo’s offense. The problem is, Dabo has had 2 weeks to prepare for Texas, and he and his staff are very good at preparing for big games. I will still say the Texas defense is going to stifle Klubnik and Mafah. Klubnik may complete a few big passes, and he might slip into the secondary once, but the Tigers are not going to run the ball against this defense. They will have less than 95 yards rushing.
Special teams. Both field goal kickers have had their issues, but the Clemson punt game is good, and field position will be important. Hoping we just score a lot and don’t punt much.
Texas wins, 38-20
College Football Playoff Rankings
AP Top 25 & Coaches Poll
Massey Ratings
Oregon, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Penn State, Indiana, Alabama, Southern Methodist, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and South Carolina are the top 12.
College Football Insiders
Clemson is at 16, and their IPR is 63.5.
ESPN College Football Power Index
ESPN’s analytics have Texas with a 40.1% chance of making the championship game and a 25.0% chance of winning it all (highest, by 8.8 points).
2024 College Football Power Index – ESPN
ESPN SP+ from Bill Connelly
Bill Connelly’s CFP projections:
Of note from the article:
“While each of this weekend’s four home teams enjoys a spread between -7 and -11.5, chaos isn’t far away. Per SP+ there’s only a 20% chance that all four favorites will win, and there’s a greater chance of either one upset (40%) or two (30%) than zero. Buckle up.”
Interesting: In ESPN’s bracket challenge, 41.4% picking Oregon, 21.4% picking Georgia, 12.9% picking Texas, 8% Ohio State, 4.3% Notre Dame, 3.5% Boise State, 2.9% Penn State, 2.3% Tennessee, 1.5% Arizona State, 0.8% Clemson, 0.6% Indiana, 0.4% Southern Methodist. I have watched a lot March Madness. Brackets are made to be busted.
Texas Longhorns vs. Clemson Tigers
Juan Heisman Tailgate
We will be tailgating Saturday. Frito pies, venison sausage from the San Pedro (courtesy of Gary Farmer), queso and salsa from Rose Marie Hagman, Texas Beer Co. and plenty of Modelo and Coors Banquet beer, and of course lots of Tito’s Handmade Vodka. Come by for a cocktail or beer before Pat Green hits the stage at Longhorn City Limits.
College Sports
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DDUad8tO2uv
Since the college football world, and collegiate athletics, generally, began the tectonic shift a few years ago, with the arrival of NIL and all the other changes precipitated by NIL and/or the otherwise associated baggage, I have been a fairly optimistic and supporter of most of the changes. To some degree, inevitable. Fair, as the players should be able to have financial benefit from their work (the pure part of NIL). As Barry Switzer said “NIL means Now Its Legal”.
It is no longer amateur sports. And this era of compensation of athletes will continue to change as the House case is implemented and hopefully some guardrails are put up (salary caps, transfer restrictions).
However, I have now reached the limit of my support for what appears to be another looming change. In the link above, Mark Lasry, a former owner of the Milwaukee Bucks, describes that investors and private equity are looking into buying into college football teams. This is simply beyond the pale, and I cannot imagine that giving up control of one’s athletic program or even ceding partial control, and ownership, to private individuals or corporations is a road that America should go down. I sincerely hope that the leadership of The University of Texas and at other great and influential colleges around the country, particularly those in the American Association of Universities, will stand up and stand against this terrible threat to the game we love.
Army-Navy Game
Man, I didn’t see that coming. The Midshipmen torpedoed Army’s hopes for the CIC Trophy with a 31-13 beating of the Black Knights, as the CIC Trophy went to Annapolis. It was definitely more than a flesh wound. Navy quarterback Blake Horvath was the star and co-MVP with big Landon Robinson. Horvath threw for 107 yards and 2 scores, and he rushed for 204 yards (on 25 carries) and 2 scores. Like the miscues that bit Texas in the SEC Championship Game, it was mistakes by Army that contributed to their loss. It was Horvath’s offense, capitalizing on the Army errors, and a Navy defense that shutdown Army’s Bryson Daily, that assured the Navy victory.
Great 18 minutes of highlights:
8 and a half minutes for those with less patience:
College Football Playoffs
No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers v. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
7:00 p.m. Friday night on ABC/ESPN. Both teams 11-1. Expected temperature at kickoff is 27 degrees. Get in ticket price Thursday night at $493. A great match-up, with the Irish 7 point favorites. The over/under is 51.5, and the money lines are Irish -275, Indiana +225.
BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Notre Dame | Indiana | .690 | 7.2 | 30.5 | 23.3 | 53.8 |
No. 11 Southern Methodist Mustangs v. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
11:00 a.m. Saturday morning on TNT/Max. Both teams 11-2. Get in ticket price Thursday night at $43. 26 degrees at kickoff. PSU favored by 8.5, over/under is 53.5. The money lines are PSU -340, Mustangs +270.
BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Penn State | Southern Methodist | .699 | 7.6 | 30.8 | 23.2 | 54.0 |
No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers v. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes.
7:00 p.m. on ABC/ESPN. Both teams 10-2. Get in ticket price Thursday night at $90. Buckeyes favored by 7.5. Get in ticket price at $90. 28 degrees at kickoff. The money lines are OSU -280, Tennessee +230. Over/under is 45.5.
BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Ohio State | Tennessee | .827 | 13.9 | 30.0 | 16.1 | 46.2 |
Clemson University
Clemson is a very rare (only?) public university named after an individual. Thomas Green Clemson, who married John C. Calhoun’s daughter and through her inherited the Calhoun family’s Fort Hill plantation, left most his estate (including Fort Hill) to be used to establish an agricultural college in South Carolina, modeled after the Agricultural College of Mississippi. The creation of the school barely passed the South Carolina General Assembly (1 vote), but in November 1889, the Clemson Agricultural College of South Carolina was established as a Morrill Land-Grant College. The legislation transferred federal funds from the University of South Carolina (thus, the narrow win in the assembly) to Clemson. South Carolina Aggies.
| Academic Rankings | ||
| National | ||
| Texas | Clemson | |
| Forbes | 46 | 113 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 30 | 86 |
| ARWU | 25 | |
| Washington Monthly | 98 | 161 |
| THE | 21 | |
| QS | 19 | |
| Global | ||
| ARWU | 45 | 601-700 |
| QS | 66 | 851-900 |
| THE | 50 | 801-1000 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 56 | 689 |
Famous alumni include Lt. Col. Jimmie Dyess, Nikki Haley, William “The Refrigerator” Perry, Strom Thurmond, and Robert H. Brookers, founder of Hooters.
Texas Longhorns Basketball
The Longhorns are 10-2, with wins this week over Arkansas-Pine Bluff (121-57) and New Orleans (98-62).
Texas One
The Texas One Fund is the official NIL collective that supports The University of Texas athletics. Texas One provides opportunities to Longhorns use their name, image, and likeness to promote charitable causes. Contributions to Texas One now count toward your Longhorn Foundation loyalty points. It is critically important to support Texas One and NIL for Longhorns. Consider a monthly donation. It makes a difference.
Quotes of the Week
“We consider Christmas as the encounter, the great encounter, the historical encounter, the decisive encounter, between God and mankind. He who has faith knows this truly; let him rejoice.” Pope Paul VI.
“The earth has grown old with its burden of care, but at Christmas it always is young, the heart of the jewel burns lustrous and fair, and its soul full of music breaks the air, when the song of angels is sung.” Paul Brooks
Jim Nicar
1955: Downtown Austin from the UT Austin Tower, when the Tower was the tallest building in the city, five feet higher than the Texas Capitol. (Adding the change of elevation, the Tower enjoyed a 48-foot advantage.)
From Jim’s Post on December 15, 2024.
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Pictures of the Week
Sunrise over downtown Austin, December 19, 2024, courtesy of my great friend Amy Villarreal.
From JType’s Instagram Post on December 17, 2024
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Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371