Texas Longhorns 16, Kentucky Wildcats 13
Texas Football
The Texas Longhorns averted disaster in Lexington, thanks to the defense, Ryan Niblett, and Mason Shipley, on a night when the offensive struggles re-manifested in every aspect of this unit’s 2025 inconsistencies, in particular play-calling.
The photo above is the overtime goal line stand. The multiple angles of attack and penetration are really remarkable. Watch the video too:
https://x.com/TexasFootball/status/1979913583547859008
Monday Morning Highlights:
On X:
https://x.com/TexasFootball/status/1980256089137406091
On Instagram:
Los Longhorns en Español
On Instagram:
On X:
https://x.com/TexasFootball/status/1981000910102020311
No. 22/18 Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Texas is on the road against this week, heading to Starkville for a game with the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Texas is 5-2, 2-1 in SEC play, and the Bulldogs are 4-3 and 0-3 in conference. Kickoff is at 3:15 p.m. at Davis Wade Stadium, broadcast on the SEC Network. Taylor Zarzour will handle the play-by-play and Matt Stinchcomb color & analysis. Alyssa Lang is the sideline reporter. This is, as best I can tell, the first time Zarzour or Stinchcomb have called a Texas game. Alyssa Lang was the sideline reporter last year at Vanderbilt. Taylor Zarzour is from Mobile and went to Huntingdon College in Montgomery, Alabama. I have heard him on college sports radio a lot, and he is reasonably knowledgeable. Matt Stinchcomb is a Georga Bulldog, consensus All-American tackle his senior year. Born in Atlanta. The name Stinchcomb is a “habitational surname” from the village of Stinchcombe in Gloucestershire.
This is the first time since 1997 Texas will play 4 consecutive games away from DKR – Texas Memorial Stadium.
The game can be heard around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns Craig Way, joined by Roger Wallace in the booth and by Will Matthews on the sidelines. Listen in Austin on the Flagship, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM, in Tyler on KTBB 600 AM and 92.1 FM, and in Midland on KBAT 99.9 FM. Listen in San Angelo and the Concho Valley with Mr. McLaughlin on KKSA 1260 AM. SiriusXM Channel 82. Dr. Rubén Pizarro-Silva and Jesus Mendoza with the call in Spanish on certain Longhorn Radio Network affiliates and streaming on the Texas Longhorn App and online.
The early betting odds, Sunday night:
The odds early Friday morning, not much change.
College Football Last Weekend
The first Notre Dame game for Peter Dean and Micah Dean was a good one. No. 13 Notre Dame beat No. 20 Southern Cal 34 to 20. Peter Dean and Micah Dean had a big time. No. 9 Georgia scored 17 unanswered in a big fourth quarter comeback to beat No. 5 Ole Miss 43-35. No. 6 Alabama continues to roll, 37-20 over No. 11 Tennessee. No. 18 Virginia with a safety to win the game over Washington State 22-20. Arizona State beat the No. 7 Texas Tech Sand Aggies 26-22.
College Football This Weekend
After a couple of weekends with several great matchups and rivalry games, we begin the third month of the college football season with a fairly lackluster schedule. The only good matchups with ranked team are in the SEC. No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma, 11:00 a.m. on ABC, both teams 6-1. Also at 11:00, No. 16 Virginia at North Carolina. No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt, 2:30 p.m. on ESPN. No. 4 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical at No. 20 Louisiana State, 6:30 p.m. on ABC, as the Aggies try to stay undefeated.
Attitude
One of my favorite movies is Kelly’s Heroes. I suspect a lot of the younger generation have never watched it, but it is a jewel of a flick. The original trailer.
Clint Eastwood as Private Kelly, Donald Sutherland as Oddball, Telly Savalas as Big Joe, Carroll O’Connor as General Colt, Don Rickles as Crapgame, and Gavin MacLeod as Moriarty. Anyway, years ago on one of our text groups, whenever someone started going all negative on the Horns or something, the standard response became “always with the negative waves Moriarty”.
Being considered a bit of an oddball myself, sometimes, I am just going to dig how beautiful it is to be a Longhorn fan. I am going to be righteous and hopeful. We do have a righteous defense, and we have really good special teams play. We have got a lot of guys on offense who need to make some improvements, and I am going to be hopeful. And no negative waves, Moriarty.
The Undefeated
I think it is remarkable that in this new era of college football we can be a full two months into the season and have 6 undefeated teams. And 4 teams lost for the first time last weekend, Ole Miss, Miami (FL), Texas Tech, and Memphis.
- Ohio State, 7-0.
- Indiana, 7-0.
- Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, 7-0
- Georgia Tech, 7-0
- Brigham Young, 7-0.
- Navy, 6-0.
On the other side of the spectrum, so to speak, those teams who are struggling and have fired their coaches in 2025 are amassing some debt. Per Brian Davis
2025 Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Roster
Hail State Offense
The Mississippi State offense is led by Blake Shapen (No. 2, 6-1, 210 pounds, Graduate), who you may recall endured time in Waco before escaping to Starkville. Shapen is 124/185 for 1,525 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has been intercepted 9 times and sacked 20 times for 127 yards. Shapen has net 20 yards on 60 “rushes” and 1 score. His QB rating is 146.9, and his QBR is 57.3, ranked no. 78. [As a refresher, QBR is ESPN’s “Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced.”].
Shapen has an array of wide receivers who are adequate. Anthony Evans III (No. 3, 5-11, 280 pounds, Junior transfer from Georgia, a Converse Judson Rocket) is his favorite target with 42 catches (over 1/3 of Shapen’s completions) for 471 yards and 2 touchdowns. 11.2 yards per catch, and that includes a long of 57 yards. Brenen Thompson (No. 0, 5-9, 170 pounds, senior transfer from Oklahoma; from Spearman, Texas) has 29 receptions for 533 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s averaging 18.4 yards per catch, and his long is 58 yards. Jordan Mosley (No. 4, 6 foot, 195 pounds, Senior) has 8 catches for 168 yards and 1 touchdown. Ayden Williams (No. 11, 6-3, 205 pounds, Junior transfer from Ole Miss) has 10 catches for 122 yards, including a 49 yard reception.
Tight End Seydou Traore (No. 6-4, 235 pounds senior) has 13 catches for 160 yards and 3 touchdowns, a long of 57. “Ziko” was born in London, England, and came to the States to try and play football, even thought he’d never played 11-man American football before. He was mainly a goalie playing their football. Spent his first 2 seasons at Arkansas State. Went to Colorado, but it didn’t work out. Very interesting story. “Ziko is a very gifted, talented player,” Buffs tight ends coach Tim Brewster said.
The Bulldogs have two good running backs. Fluff Bothwell has the best name and the best stats, but is listed as questionable for the game on Saturday, but I think it’s a bluff. Fluff (No. 24, 5-10, 230 pounds sophomore transfer from South Alabama) has 84 carries for 465 yards and 6 touchdowns. Davon Booth (No. 6, 5-10 205 pounds, graduate) has 81 carries for 371 yards and 6 touchdowns. Also in the RB room, Xavier Gayten (No. 22, 6 foot, 205 pounds, Sophomore), 14 carries for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Kamario Taylor (No. 1, 6-4, 230 pounds, freshman from Noxubee County High School, no relation), 15 carries for 92 yards and 1 touchdown.
Kyle Ferrie is 7/9 on field goals, with 1/3 between 40-49 but 2 for 2 over 50.
Hail State Defense
Safety Jahron Manning (No. 13, 5-10, 195 senior from New Orleans [Brother Martin HS]) leads the Bulldogs defense with 46 tackles (12 solo) and an interception. Linebacker Nic Mitchell (No. 40, 6-2, 230 pounds, senior) has 36 tackles (2 solo). Safety Isaac Smith (No. 2, 6 foot, 220 pounds, Junior from Itawamba Agricultural High School in Fulton, Mississippi) has 34 tackles (6 solo) a sack, and an interception. Brylan Lanier (No. 3, 6-1, 190 pounds Senior) has 32 tackles (17 solo), a sack, and 3 interceptions. Linebacker Branden Jennings (No. 44, 6-3, 240 pounds, Senior) has 29 tackles (5 solo). Linebacker Jalen Smith (No. 10, 6-2, 230 pounds, Sophomore, Transfer from Tennessee) has 28 tackles (9 solo). Linebacker Zakari Tillman (No. 7, 6-2, 235 pounds, Junior) has 28 tackles (5 solo) and a sack; he is also sitting out the first half. DJ Reed (No. 42, 6-4, 285 pound sophomore defensive lineman, transfer from Auburn) leads the Bulldogs in sacks with 2 for 5 yards.
Best names besides Fluff: Sanfrisco Magee, Lo’Kavion Jackson, Stonka Burnside, Fatt Forrest, and Diesel Moye (who made a stop at Tyler Junior College). I just keep smiling thinking about a traditional old 3-man backfield with Fatt, Diesel, and Stonka. Fatt would have to be the fullback, right?
The 2025 Bulldogs Season:
Game 1: State opened the season in Hattiesburg with in-state rival Southern Mississippi as 15.5 point favorites. Bulldogs won 34-17. On the first drive of the season, Shapen hit his tight end Seydou Traore for a 57 yard touchdown pass. Shapen finished 26/33 for 272 yards, the 1 TD, plus one interception. Brenen Thompson caught 7 passes for 92 yards, Traore with 5 catches for 79 yards, and Anthony Evans III with 4 catches for 36 yards. Davon Booth rushed for 80 yards on 16 carries, with a score. Fluff Bothwell had 10 carries for 24 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Jalen Smith and Isaac Smith each had 7 tackles. Malick Syll and Brylan Lanier each had 6, and Lanier had an interception.
Game 2: State beat then No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils 24-20. After 2024’s miserable season, this was a surprise (and it looks really good with what ASU has done since, including beating the Sand Aggies). Shapen was 19/33 for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brenen Thompson 6 catches for 133 yards and 2 touchdowns, including a 47 yard TD catch and a 58 yard TD catch. Anthon Evans II had 9 catches for 108 yards and 1 touchdown, with a 48 yard scoring catch in first MSU possession. Bothwell had 8 runs for 34 yards and Booth had 9 for 33 yards. Mississippi State’s 3 TD scoring drives were: 4 plays, 75 yards, 69 seconds; 2 plays, 47 yards, 12 seconds; and 5 plays, 77 yards, 68 seconds. The last drive began with less than a minute to play and the Bulldogs down 20-17.
Sam Leavitt had a miserable game for ASU, 10/22 for 82 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Sun Devils rushed for 251 yards.
Nic Mitchell and Jahran Manning each had 9 tackles. Isaac Smith had 8. Hunter Washington and Jayven Williams each had interceptions.
Game 3: Mississippi State pounded Alcorn State 63-0. The Braves were outmatched, and the Bulldogs opened up a 28-0 first quarter lead. As a result, there were a lot of Bulldogs in the box score. Shapen was a pedestrian 10/14 for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 interception. Jordan Mosley had a 75 yard touchdown catch. The Bulldogs rushed for 282 yards and 6 touchdowns, led by Fluff with 12 for 93 and 2 scores.
Game 4: The Bulldogs shutout the Northern Illinois Huskies in the second half to get a 38-10 win. Shapen 12/20 for 160 yards and a score, and Shapen actually rushed 11 times for 51 yards. Anthony Evans III with 4 catches for 80 yards. Fluff with 17 carries for 101 yards. Davon Booth 7 runs for 22 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Jahron Manning led MSU with 7 tackles. Isaac Smith had 6 and an interception. NIU rushed for 125 yards.
Game 5: Mississippi State opened SEC play at home against No. 15 Tennessee and took the Volunteers to overtime. Tennessee won 41-34. Shapen was 18/29 for 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Ayden Williams 1 catch for 49 yards. Seydou Traore 4 catches for 35 yards and a touchdown. Fluff Bothwell big, with 23 carries for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. Booth 17 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown.
Joey Aguilar was 24/40 for 335 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions for the Vols. Tennessee rushed for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Branden Jennings led State with 10 tackles. Zakari Tillman, Tyler Lockhart, and Jahron Manning each had 6 tackles. Tillman and Manning each had picks.
Game 6: A trip to College Station and a 31-9 beating by Texas Agricultural & Mechanical. Bulldogs were only down 7-3 at halftime. Shapen was 15/20 for 142 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Brenen Thompson 2 catches for 54 yards, including a 44 yard touchdown catch midway through the fourth quarter. Aggies scored 17 in the fourth quarter, including a quick score after a State fumble. Bothwell rushed 14 times for 60 yards, Booth 8 for 59.
Jahron Manning had 13 tackles. Jalen Smith and Nic Mitchell each had 7.
Game 7: Florida 23-21 over Mississippi State, despite DJ Lagway throwing 2 interceptions and not completing a touchdown pass (20/34 for 280 yards). It was 13-7 Florida going into the fourth quarter, when both teams got some offense.
Shapen was 24/36 for 324 yards, 1 interception (Arch was 16/29 for 263 yards 2 TDs, 2 INT vs. Florida). Brenen Thompson had 7 catches for 155 yards, Anthony Evans III had 11 catches for 107 yards. Davon Booth had 22 carries for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Brylan Lanier had 8 tackles and a sack. Isaac Smith, Jahron Manning, and Nic Mitchell each had 6 tackles.
Jeff Lebby (a 2007 graduate of OU) is in his second season in Starkville. He was in Norman for 2 years before that as offensive coordinator the Land Thieves, where he was very successful. Jeff is from Andrews, Texas.
The Statistics
The first ranking is national, the second is SEC.
Offense
Statistic |
Texas |
Mississippi State |
| Rushing Offense | #74, #11 – 149.4 ypg | #48, #8 – 178.6 ypg |
| Passing Offense | #80, #13 – 218.7 ypg | #70, #12 – 227.3 ypg |
| Total Offense | #81, #11 – 368.1 ypg | #59, #9 – 405.9 ypg |
| Scoring Offense | #80, #11 – 26.7 ppg | #50, #9 – 31.9 ppg |
| First Downs * | #121, #15 – 17.4/game | #64, #10 – 21.0/game |
| Sacks Allowed | #70, #7- 13, 76 yards | #116, #14 – 20, 127 yards |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed | #96, #11 – 41, 154 yards | #117, #15 – 46, 192 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #90, #13 – 38.14% | #46, #9 – 43.48% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #112, #15 – 41.7% (5/12) | #24, #6 – 66.7 (8/12)% |
| Touchdowns | #81, #11 – 22 total, 15 RZ | #41, #9 – 29 total, 20 RZ |
| Red Zone Attempts | #74, #10 – 25 | #57, #8 – #27 |
| Red Zone Offense | #92, #13 – 80% / 60% | #46, #9 – 89% / 74% |
| Long Run Plays | #85, #11 – 30/10, 6/20, 4/30, 1/40 | #20, #3 – 45/10, 9/20, -0- |
| Long Pass Plays ** | #80, #12 – 58/10, 25/20, 14/30, 4/40 | #100, #14 – 52/10, 19/20, 15/30, 14/40 |
| Long Punt Returns *** | #3, #1 – 6/20, 5/30, 5/40, 1/50 | #14, #4 – 3/20, 2/30, 2/40 |
* Texas is tied with Rice
** Mississippi State is #1 in the country and #1 in SEC in 40+ yard pass plays
*** In punt returns, Texas is #1, +30 and +40
Defense
Statistic |
Texas |
Mississippi State |
| Rushing Defense | #5, #2 – 83.3 ypg | #98, #14 – 164.40 ypg |
| Passing Defense | #39, #8 – 195.9 ypg | #30, #5 – 187.3 ypg |
| Total Defense | #12, #3 – 279.2 ypg | #53, #12 – 351.3 ypg |
| Scoring Defense | #3, #2 – 11.3 ppg | #37, #11 – 20.3 ppg |
| First Downs Allowed | #14, #4 – 15.9/game | #57, #12 – 19.3/game |
| Sacks | #13, #4 – 21, 111 yards | #105, #13 – 10, 54 yards |
| Tackles for Loss | #41, #7 – 43, 172 yards | #115, #14 – 29, 96 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #22, #5 – 31.7% | #40, #7 – 35.1% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #5, #2 – 25.0% (4/16) | #41, #5 – 45.4% (5/11) |
| Red Zone Attempts | #2, #1 – 11 | #50, #9 – 22 |
| Red Zone Defense | #11, #2 – 73% / 55% | #58, #8 – 82% / 50% |
| Long Run Plays Allowed | #10, #4 – 18/10, 1/20, 1/30, -0- | #82, #15 – 34/10, 7/20, 2/30, -0- |
| Long Pass Plays Allowed | #53, #9 – 55/10, 14/20, 5/30, 4/40 | #34, #5 – 51/10, 21/20, 7/30, 2/40 |
Other
Statistic |
Texas |
Mississippi State |
| Turnovers | #21, #4 – 6 (1F, 5I) | #56, #7 – 8 (3F, 5I) |
| Turnover Margin | #10, #2 – 13:6 +7 | #21, #3 – 13:8 +5 |
| Penaltiesπ | #121, #12 – 55, 464 yards | #126, #13 – 57, 522 yards |
πBased on total number of penalties.
Match-up Comparison
Texas Offense |
Mississippi State Defense |
| Rushing Offense – 149.4 ypg | 164.0 ypg – Rushing Defense |
| Passing Offense – 218.7 ypg | 187.3 ypg – Passing Defense |
| Total Offense – 368.1 ypg | 351.3 ypg – Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense – 26.7 ppg | 20.3 ppg – Scoring Defense |
| First Downs – 17.4/game | 19.3/game – First Downs Allowed |
| 3rd Down Offense – 38.14% | 35.1% – 3rd Down Defense |
| 4th Down Offense – 41.7% | 45.4% – 4th Down Defense |
| Red Zone Offense – 80%/60% | 82%/50% – Red Zone Defense |
| LRP – 30/10, 6/20, 4/30, 1/40 | 34/10, 7/20, 2/30, -0- – LRP Allowed |
| LPP – 58/10, 25/20, 14/30, 4/40 | 5/10, 21/20, 7/30, 2/40 – LPP Allowed |
Texas Defense |
Mississippi State Offense |
| Rushing Defense – 83.3 ypg | 178.6 ypg – Rushing Offense |
| Passing Defense – 195.9 ypg | 227.3 ypg – Passing Offense |
| Total Defense – 279.2 ypg | 405.9 ypg – Total Offense |
| Scoring Defense – 11.3 ppg | 31.9 ppg – Scoring Offense |
| First Downs Allowed – 15.9/game | 21.0/game – First Downs |
| 3rd Down Defense – 31.7% | 43.48% – 3rd Down Offense |
| 4th Down Defense – 25.0% | 66.7% – 4th Down Offense |
| Red Zone Defense – 73%/55% | 89%/74% – Red Zone Offense |
| LRP Allowed – 18/10, 1/20, 1/30, -0- | 45/10, 9/20, -0- – LRP |
| LPP Allowed – 55/10, 14/20, 5/30, 4/40 | 52/10, 19/20, 15/30, 14/40 – LPP |
BCF Toys
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | |
| Texas | No. 14: 0.84 | No. 47: 0.09 | No. 7: 0.62 | No. 3: 0.13 |
| Bulldogs | No. 44: 0.32 | No. 45: 0.11 | No. 38: 0.21 | No. 45: 0.03 |
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 27: 0.121 | No. 84: 0.446 | No. 9: 0.325 |
| Bulldogs | No. 78: -0.023 | No. 87: 0.441 | No. 58: 0.464 |
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 16: 1.35 | No. 67: 2.29 | No. 4: 0.95 |
| Bulldogs | No. 45: 0.51 | No. 66: 2.30 | No. 30: 1.79 |
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 42: 0.79 | No. 94: 5.25 | No. 8: 4.45 |
| Bulldogs | No. 78: -0.28 | No. 97: 5.18 | No. 56: 5.46 |
| PVE | OVE | DVE | SVE | |
| Texas | No. 13: 0.70 | No. 83: -0.17 | No. 3: 0.74 | No. 4: 0.15 |
| Bulldogs | No. 58 0.11 | No. 77: – 0.14 | No. 36: 0.23 | No. 40: 0.04 |
In BCF’s F+ ratings (Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings combined with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings), Texas dropped to No. 12.
| F+ | OF+ | DF+ | SF+ | |
| Texas | No. 12: 1.41 | No. 53: 0.33 | No. 2: 2.10 | No. 20: 1.08 |
| Bulldogs | No. 38: 0.63 | No. 43: 0.55 | No. 41: 0.57 | No. 33: 0.70 |
BCF Game Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas Longhorns | Mississippi State | 0.711 | 8.1 | 27.5 | 19.4 | 46.9 |
PFF
Texas’ overall rating is 92.8, placing it at No. 11. Mississippi States’s overall rating is 83.5, placing it at No. 61. The numbers below are just the PFF grades.
|
|
Offense |
Passing |
Pass Blocking |
Receiving |
Run |
Run Blocking |
| UT | 75.1 | 73.9 | 64.2 | 74.5 | 79.7 | 63.3 |
| MSU | 71.9 | 78.7 | 68.4 | 65.4 | 82.6 | 54.8 |
|
|
Defense |
Run D |
Tackling |
Pass Rush |
Coverage |
| UT | 94.1 | 93.3 | 88.4 | 84.5 | 94.1 |
| MSU | 85.3 | 86.4 | 64.7 | 61.9 | 87.4 |
The Texas defense is the No. 2 graded defense in the country. Sand Aggies are actually at the top, with a grade of 96.4. Indiana is No. 3, at 93.6.
Texas Special Teams: No. 37 – 79.7 rating. Mississippi State is ranked No. 67 with a ST rating of 74.4.
Parker Fleming’s Advanced Stats Preview:
Official Game Notes from The University:
https://texaslonghorns.com/documents/2025/10/20/Week_9_-_Mississippi_State.pdf
Week 9 Game Notes from the SEC:
https://www.secsports.com/football-weekly-release
Preview:
The ESPN Matchup Predictor very early Friday morning:
TCT Thoughts
I think Texas has a good chance to win another SEC road game, but the Longhorns better be a hell of a lot more focused on offense. The Bulldogs are not great, but they are a lot better than they were last year and are for sure a better team than Kentucky. If I could run a redline of just the raw stats and the BCF stats between Mississippi State and Kentucky, you would see what I mean. [As I write that, I realize I actually can do that. I might do it and put in the online version. Will post if I do.]
Same big keys to the game, but I really have to add offensive competency. Still no turnovers and limit penalties, especially early offensive line penalties and drive killers and drive extenders, and Texas has a reasonable chance of getting a now very important win. Much more important than I would have thought in August, as we head into November with 3 top 10 teams on tap.
C.J. Baxter will be back, but not sure how effective he will be. The wildcard (and wildcat) is Michael Terry. Great athlete, and he could bring some much-needed charge to the running game. If we can just get some blocking. Would sure be nice to get some rushing yards and not be in situations every series where the Bulldogs know we are passing and can pin their ears back and come full speed after Arch. Mississippi State is weak against the rushing game, and I am hopeful we get a game plan from Sark that includes some sets and designs that give these struggling linemen a path to some success.
I think we see a much better game plan from Sark. The OU game plan, or something similar, not the ineffective Kentucky game plan, which was a bad replay. Give Arch opportunities for success. I think getting the tight ends more involved would be useful. I like the 2-tight end sets. We need big games from Parker Livingstone and DeAndre Moore, Jr. Mosley too.
No amount of game planning and play calling will overcome a lack of blocking. Some of the fails in Kentucky (Wildcats rushing 2 or 3 and getting pressure) just have to be fixed. No way around that. Hoping it was a good week of practice and those guys have some confidence and some fire. We need them.
A few things from the statistics. The offenses are very similar in the advanced stats, almost identical. State has better raw stats on offense, especially in the run game. But if there is one area of the 2025 Texas Longhorns I have the most faith in, it is our run defense. Advantage, Texas.
Conversely, the Texas defense is significantly better than the Bulldogs. Great. But Shapen is an experienced quarterback, and he has two excellent receivers in Anthony Evans and Brenen Thompson. Thompson’s 18.4 yards per catch is scary. With Taaffe out, the secondary is going to have to step up without their field general. Need big games from Muhammad and Derek Williams (who will be in for Taaffe) and rest of DBU.
One thing this is not is a “trap game”. Texas knows they didn’t play well last week, they know they have a tough game, and I am trusting that the coaches have the men focused on Mississippi State. Because if Texas doesn’t beat the Bulldogs, what we do in the November gauntlet will just not matter as much. That is, Texas wins on Saturday and then finds a way to win 3 out of 4 in November, there is a real chance of still being in the hunt for a playoff berth. A loss in Starkville is, well, catastrophic.
I feel great about our defense. I feel better about our running game. And if this year’s pattern holds, Arch Manning will have a good game. Hope so.
Time to make it Sarkville instead of Starkville.
Texas Longhorns 24, Mississippi State Bulldogs 17
A Bit of History
The University of Texas and The Agricultural and Mechanical College of the State of Mississippi first played in 1921, with Texas winning handily 54-7 at Clark Field. That would be the only game until we decided to play the Mississippi aggies and it turned out to be Jackie Sherrill’s first year in Starkville. Mississippi State won that game in 1991, 13-6, and they came to Austin the next season and beat us 28-10.
No. 20 Texas and No. 25 Mississippi State met in the 1999 Cotton Bowl. Ricky Williams ran for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging 6.8 yards per carry on 30 touches (and caught 5 passes for 45 yards). Major Applewhite was 15/26 for 3 touchdowns, and Wane McGarity caught 4 of those passes, two for touchdowns. Texas smoked Mississippi State 38-11, and Ricky gave us a pose.
Ricky Williams, 37 yards for the touchdown.
Last season, the No. 1 Texas Longhorns beat the State Bulldogs 35-13. Arch Manning was 26 of 31 for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 33 yards rushing and that quarterback sneak for a score. A 193 rating and 79.5 QBR. Among the Power 4 conference quarterbacks in Week 5 of 2024, PFF graded Arch at 94.2, best of the bunch. Moore had 2 touchdown catches last year. It was a fun game. What a difference an experienced and capable offensive line makes.
Mississippi State University
Mississippi Aggies. Founded in 1878, the Mississippi Agricultural and Mechanical College of the State of Mississippi is another great Morrill Act of 1862 Land-Grant school. Located in Starkville, Oktibbeha County, about 20 miles from the Alabama state line.
Academic Rankings |
||
National |
||
Texas |
Mississippi State |
|
| Forbes | 46 | 242 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 30 | 214 |
| Washington Monthly | 98 | 254 |
| WSJ/College Pulse | 41 | 401-500 |
| Global | ||
| ARWU | 45 | 501 |
| QS | 68 (#4 U.S. Publics) | 1001-1200 |
| THE | 50 | 601-800 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 65 | 810 |
Famous alumni include G.V. “Sonny” Montgomery, former U.S. representative and author of the Montgomery G.I. Bill; Jerry Clower, the great southern comedian; John Grisham, author; Will Clark, baseball; D.D. Lewis, of Dallas Cowboys fame; Raphael Palmeiro, baseball; Dak Prescott; Buck Showalter.
A very interesting fact about Mississippi State University, as pointed out by Henry H. “Tony” Dewar II, is that the Ulysses S. Grant Presidential Library is at Mississippi State. How does the presidential library of the General of the Union Army end up in Starkville? In 2012, when the Ulysses S. Grant Association finally got to the point of establish the Grant library, the Executive Director of the USGA was Dr. John F. Marszalek, an accomplished historian and professor at MSU. He led the efforts to get Grant’s papers moved to MSU, and with that, the establishment of the presidential library, which is housed in the university’s Mitchell Memorial Library. Also of note, the library is home to one of the largest collections of Abraham Lincoln memorabilia. All pretty cool, but if you are going to Starkville, go on Friday, because the Grant Library is closed on Saturday.
I wonder if he can play point guard.
Texas Longhorns 16, Kentucky Wildcats 13
After the Longhorns’ success in the Red River Shootout, I don’t think many of us were expecting a flat offensive performance in Lexington. I know I wasn’t. I really felt like Sark’s game plan for OU and Manning’s and the offense’s execution of that plan, at least in the second half, signaled the turning point of the 2025 Longhorns, especially that nearly 8 minute touchdown drive to start the third quarter. Masterful in many ways. That didn’t travel to Kentucky, and while the injuries on the offensive line probably contributed to the Texas struggles, they don’t explain or excuse them. It was ugly, at least on offense.
The Game
Kentucky got the ball first, and the young Wildcat quarterback, Cutter Boley, looked pretty darn good. Passes of 8 yards, 15, 10, and 14 yards, and a couple of runs, and Kentucky had third and 2 at the Texas 17. The Longhorn defense held there and then got a full stop on fourth and 1 to get the ball back. That great short yardage defense would be the key to the Texas win, although we sure didn’t know it early Saturday night.
Texas tried to move the ball, and Arch did make a nice 14 yard tuck and run on third and 8 to get a first down (we need more of that, and earlier). But the possession also saw 3 incompletions before a punt. Great defense with a 3 and out, and the Longhorns got the ball back deep in Texas territory at the 13. A deep pass on first down to Wingo missed, but Kentucky was flagged for DPI to get the ball out to the 28. On the very next play, Manning was sacked for 10 yards. Arch did complete a couple of passes and Texas overcame the long yardage for a first down, but 2 more incompletions and Bouwmeester was on again to punt.
Kentucky’s next drive was also fruitless, although Boley did complete some passes to move the chains across midfield. On third and 5 at the Texas 39, Colin Simmons had a huge sack, pushing the Cats back to the 44 and making it fourth and 10.
Texas’ next possession was okay. Manning completed a nice pass to Washington for 25 yards (hmmm, tight end, right?), and a few plays later a 19 yard pass to DeAndre Moore, Jr. had the Horns at the Kentucky 39. But Texas stalled again, including 2 negative plays that were just not very good. Great defense again, as Kentucky was minus 2 yards on the next series, thanks to a big Trey Moore sack on third down. That had Kentucky punting out of their endzone, to Ryan Niblett at midfield.
Ryan Niblett did what he does so well, and that is see the field and see the lanes. He made a great run all the way to the UK 5 yard line. Quintrevion Wisner scored on third and goal from the 1, although it could easily have been ruled a fumble recovered by the Horns in the endzone. Either way, Texas finally got on the board and had a 7-nothing lead with about 6 minutes left in the first half.
Cutter Boley and the Cats were moving the ball after the kickoff, but Anthony Hill, Jr. made a beautiful play on the ball and picked off the Boley pass around midfield. That was one of those moments when Texas really needed to turn turnovers into touchdowns, something that has not been a strong suit. Texas did get a first down on a couple of strong runs by Christian Clark, but after another sack of Arch and another incompletion, Texas was punting again inside Kentucky territory. At least we played field possession and have an excellent punter.
Unbowed, Kentucky drove the ball down the field again, as Boley made some big passes (including 16 and 18 yards). The Cats had a second and 1 at the Texas 29 with 13 seconds left, and an excellent call by PK, as Muhammad blitzed and sacked Boley for a 6 yard loss. With 8 seconds left, Stoops went for the points, and Kentucky missed the field goal.
An ugly first half, but a 7 nothing lead, thanks to Ryan Niblett. It wasn’t the worst half of the Sark era, but it wasn’t pretty:
- Texas rushed for net 23 yards, 13 from Clark. Wisner, who was a beast in the Cotton Bowl, mustered 7 yards on 3 carries. Arch had the longest run, at 14 yards, and that was on the first Texas possession. 2 sacks, 5 tackles for loss. In the first half.
- Arch Manning was 7/15 for 70 yards. 7 yards per attempt. Credit that he did complete 3 decent passes – 25 to Washington, 19 to Moore, and 15 to Wingo.
- Meanwhile the defense was decent against the run (51 yards between McGowan and Dowdell). Boley was 16/21 for 138 yards. The Hill pick was huge, and he also had 9 tackles. The 3 sacks, plus TFL by Jelani McDonald, kept the Wildcats in check.
Second Half
I was a bit irritated but not despondent as the second half started. Probably helped that Kathryn was visiting from Blanco and that Claudia also joined us for the evening and dinner. The filet mignon and cabernet franc were certainly more enjoyable than the Texas offense. I just didn’t anticipate the level of indigestion that the Longhorns were about to induce.
Texas got the ball first and went 3 and out, despite an 8 yard run from Quintrevion on first down. Not good when you can’t get a first down after second and 2.
Kentucky moved the ball, Texas failed to recover a fumble (again), but the Wildcats stalled again. Kentucky made the field goal. Texas 7, Kentucky 3.
The Longhorns, thankfully, answered with a little drive of its own. Little because outside of a great 31 yard pass to Emmett Mosley V (one of Arch’s best of the night), the Texas offense sputtered. Mason Shipley nailed a 53 yard field goal. Texas 10, Kentucky 3.
Texas forced a 3 and out, with UK losing 4 yards on their next possession.
This next series is one where, as the third quarter was winding down and Texas nursing a 1 score lead, Sark needed to find a way to run the ball and push the field. Instead, incompletion, incompletion, sack. Then an illegal snap penalty on fourth down pushed us back to the 19, a net loss of 13 yards and the 14 yard punt return by the Wildcats gave them the ball at midfield as the fourth quarter started.
Credit Stoops and Boley, they took advantage of the Texas sloppiness. 11 yard pass to the tight end Kattus, an 11 yard run, and a 15 yard pass interference penalty on Guilbeau gave the Wildcats a first down at the Texas 15. Boley got lost and got loose on 2nd down and ran it in to tie the score with 12 minutes to play.
Texas responded with a 3 and out, and both defenses held serve for the next 3 series. But on the punt on that Kentucky last possession in this sequence, Ryan Niblett came through again with a 43 yard punt return to the UK 42.
With less than 2 and a half minutes to play, Texas had a clear path to victory. Wisner had a couple of runs, and Arch completed both his passes. With 60 seconds left in the game, Mason Shipley came on to kick what I assumed, and desperately hoped, would be the game-winning field goal. Shipley nailed it. But …
I don’t think PK put the Horns in a prevent defense, but it sure seemed squishy. Boley ran for 16, passed for 17, and on third and 6 at the Texas 36, Trey Moore jumped offsides. I am not sure it would have changed the outcome, but man, third and 1 was so much more manageable for Kentucky than third and 6, and they took advantage. The clock was our friend, and Kentucky had to go for the tie on second down with 9 seconds left. Kauwe nailed another one.
The extraordinary importance of the coin flip for overtime. Texas won the toss and elected to play defense.
It started frighteningly bad, as Boley completed a short pass to Kendrick Law, and Law busted it down to the Texas 3 yard line. This great Texas defense, who had just played their 82nd down of the game, had to win the game for the Horns, and they did. 0 yards, 2 yards, and 0 yards twice, including that extraordinary fourth down stop which is this week’s opening photo, and the video clip in the intro above. Just extraordinary. 86 snaps, and the last 4 were rock solid by the Texas defense. Talk about Eyes to Eyes.
Texas got its turn, and of course started with a holding call to go backwards 10 yards. See note below about the play call. Manning was able to get us almost back even, but Mason Shipley had to come and win the game from the 27 with a 45 yard kick. God bless him. Per the great John Bianco, that was the first ever Texas field goal to win a game on the final play in overtime.
The Texas defense, Ryan Niblett, and Mason Shipley won this football game. The Texas offense didn’t lose the game, at least.
- Arch Manning finished 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 132 yards, and was sacked twice. See pressures below.
- Quintrevion Wisner had 12 runs for 37 yards and the score, but averaged just 3.1 yards per carry. Against the much better Land Thief defense, 22 carries for 94 yards, 4.3 ypc.
- More on the passing game below, but look at the yards after catch. And note that for whatever reason, Wingo and Manning are still not connecting like they need to.
If you are on social media, listen to the radio, watch television, or discuss sports with friends and colleagues, you probably heard a lot negativity and criticism. So much so, that I am not going to spend a lot of time criticizing, although I have a few things of note.
A knowledgeable football fan with whom I correspond provides a lot of good critique. Arch completed 7 of 8 passes that were caught behind the line of scrimmage. As he notes, “that works”. It is part of what a good offense can do – an integration of the passing game as part of the running game, and often it is Arch checking down to his safety option. The problem was that on short passes (line of scrimmage to 13 yards ) Arch was just 2 for 14 (I think). But that is where Sark and Arch and the running backs and all the receivers need to get on the same page.
First, credit where credit is due. 7 games into the season, and Ryan Niblett is our MVP, and Muhammad and Taaffe are right up there. Outside of a couple of series, especially in the fourth quarter, the Texas defense in Kentucky was good.
Ryan Niblett’s 99 yards of kick returns were huge, especially the two punt returns. Query whether Texas would have even won without the field position served up by Mr. Niblett on a silver platter.
Second, penalties hurt. 7 penalties for 50 yards – more than our rushing yards.
The Texas defense played their butts off. 86 offensive snaps for Kentucky, and 39:23 UK time of possession in regulation. They gave up 395 yards and 26 first downs, but just 13 points. Anthony Hill is our best, I think. 12 tackles (8 solo) and that amazing interception. Mookie right behind him with 10 tackles. Jelani McDonald with 9 tackles and 2 tackles for loss for 12 yards. Trey Moore with a sack for 8 and in aggregate 2 TFL for 14 yards. Colin Simmons, an efficient 3 sacks on 4 tackles, 10 yards on the sacks, and a forced fumble. All told, the defense’s tackles for loss (including the 5 sacks, all of which were important) netted 47 yards – exactly what the Texas run game netted on offense.
Jake Bouwmester with 8 punts for 336 yards, averaging 42 yards per punt and he put 6 inside the 20 with no touchbacks. That is very good.
Mason Shipley, 3/3, from 53 yards, 39 yards (the presumptive game winner), and 45 yards (the actual game winner).
Observations
The Kentucky game was the worst offensive performance in 62 games for Steve Sarkisian at Texas. That isn’t just, or mainly, on Arch Manning, although UK was his lowest PFF grade this season (51.8). That was after a solid 85.0 against Oklahoma. I believe Nick Brooks has plenty of upside and potential, but it is hurting right now. His PFF grade was 14.1. If I recited all the PFF grades on offense, you would picture Dean Wormer talking to the Delts about their midterm grades.
Arch Manning was pressured 18 times in 27 pass attempts – 2/3rds. Arch was hit 8 times. Per Justin Nash and PFF, Arch Manning is the 4th most pressured quarterback in FBS, with pressure on 97 of his drop backs. I think we need to give Arch some credit that he’s only been sacked 13 times. But he has been hit 60 times in 7 games. Per Justin, Quinn Ewers didn’t take his 60th hit until the last game of the regular season.
Per Geoff Ketchum, Texas scored 17 points or less on offense in 7 of its last 9 Power 4 games. No bueno. Point is, that this issue isn’t an entirely new one, although that goes back to the game in College Station, and includes the 3 CFP games and Ohio State and Oklahoma this year. Some pretty great defenses in that stretch.
Why can’t Texas recover fumbles? Kentucky put the ball on the ground four times Saturday night, and Texas got nary a one. I think back to that early fumble in the Florida game. Probably would have changed the outcome, or at least the tenor for a good bit. As good as this defense is, I am not sure why we aren’t getting the ball. Texas is tied for 8th in opponent fumbles without a recovery. Ranked 90th with forced fumbles recovered (1/3rd). Maybe sometimes because we are trying to scoop and run as opposed to just getting on top of the ball. Given our offensive challenges, I can see that being in the back of a defender’s mind. But get possession first, then worry about advancing the ball.
Several people said I always fall back on penalties and turnovers as keys to the game. They are almost always critically important, but as we realized early this season, Texas is probably going to be in a lot close games. Those are the miscues that can change the course of a game, just like errors in baseball.
Texas learned something in Lexington. Night road games in the SEC are tough, no matter who you are and no matter who the opponent is. Case in point, Georgia’s last 3 trips to Lexington:
- 2020, Georgia was ranked No. 5, and would finish 8-2, ranked in the top 10. Final score UGA 14, UK 3
- 2022, Georgia was ranked No. 1, and would go on to win the SEC and the National Championship (42-41 over Ohio State and 65-7 over Texas Christian). Final score UGA 16, UK 6
- 2024, Georgia was ranked No. 1, and would make the CFP, losing to Notre Dame 23-10. Final score UGA 13, UK 12
So, perhaps like going to play Arizona State in the desert at night, trips to Lexington, Kentucky are just different. File that away for the next trip.
I am still a Sarkisian fan. If he didn’t admit his mistakes, I might be less so, but he does. After the game, Sark was asked about the first call in overtime (the stretch run by Quintrevion which yielded the Baker holding call). Sark said “That wasn’t a good call by me”. Maybe, but it wasn’t like we had been pounding the ball in the middle – it was just that the odds of a hold were much much less on a gut run. Also, after Moore went out of bounds, a misplay that probably prevented Texas from sealing the win in regulation, Sarkisian said “I’m very disappointed in myself in our ability to end the game with the ball in our hands and in position to kick a field goal to win late.” Sark mans up, and I respect the hell out of that.
I have been practicing law for over 40 years now. I still work to improve, to get better, to admit when I make a mistake and admit when someone has a better way to do things. With the offensive line struggles, 2025 is going to be a challenge, but I believe Sarkisian is going to fix things. First downs is one of those spots; per Justin Nash, Texas is worst in the nation with 31 plays on second down with 12 or more yards to go. With the current state of development of the offensive talent, we just have to get ahead of the chains on first down.
As for calling his own plays, it is a tough one. I hear both sides, and I hear a whole lot of he needs an offensive coordinator. I tend to lean toward that, or at least some really offensive genius who is there just to help Sark call the plays. Coach Mack Brown with a most excellent discussion of it on The Stampede with Bob Ballou.
https://x.com/TheStampedeUT/status/1981036275667791980
Joel Klatt, for whom I have developed a lot of respect.
Listen to Michael Taaffe post-game.
Accolades
SEC Special Teams Player of the Week – Mason Shipley
SEC Co-Defensive Lineman of the Week – Colin Simmons
Shipley was also the Lou Groza “Star of the Week”
2025 William V. Campbell Trophy: Trey Moore named a finalist.
Highlights from ESPN – about 15 minutes
Condensed game, from Justin Nash (45 minutes).
https://x.com/NashTalksTexas/status/1979746979514404954
I predicted Kentucky would only score 13 points. What did not foresee was such a struggle on offense. But an SEC road win, and the Horns still have everything to play for.
President James E. Davis
Wednesday, The University of Texas held one of academia’s splendid ceremonies, the investiture of a new president. Jim Davis is the 31st to hold that position on The Forty Acres.
The Making of a President | The Alcalde
You can watch a replay here (or read his remarks):
Investiture of Jim Davis and State of the University Address – The University of Texas at Austin
Texas Volleyball
The No. 2 Longhorns are now 16-0, after last week’s wins over Arkansas and Oklahoma. This Friday night, Ole Miss at Gregory Gym, 7:00 p.m. on SEC Network. The Horns are in Baton Rouge to play the Louisiana State Tigers on Sunday, 1:00 p.m. on SEC Network+.
Week Nine in the Southeastern Conference
No. 8 Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1) at No. 13 Oklahoma (6-1, 2-1), 11:00 a.m. on ABC from Norman. Land Thieves favored by 5.5, over/under is 51.5. I am going with Ole Miss for the win. Hotty Toddy!
BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Oklahoma | Ole Miss | .595 | 3.4 | 28.3 | 24.9 | 53.2 |
Parker Fleming’s Advanced Stats Preview:
Auburn (3-4, 0-4) at Arkansas (2-5, 0-3), 11:45 a.m. on the SEC Network from FayetteNam. Arkansas favored by 3.5, over/under is 55.5. Someone will be out of last place by Saturday night. Hope it is the Tigers. War Eagle.
No. 4 Alabama (6-1, 4-0) at South Carolina (3-4, 1-4), 2:30 p.m. on ABC from Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia. Crimson Tide are hitting on all cylinders. Might be a tough day to be a Gamecock. Alabama favored by 11.5, over/under is 46.5, and I think they will cover.
No. 15 Missouri (6-1, 2-1) at No. 10 Vanderbilt (6-1, 2-1), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN from Nashville. The Commodores are home favorites again at minus 2.5, over/under is 53.5. Vanderbilt is ranked in the top 10 for the first time since 1947, and they are 6-1 for the first time since 1950. I hope the Dores keep it going this week!
BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Vanderbilt | Missouri | .554 | 1.9 | 30.5 | 28.6 | 59.1 |
Parker Fleming’s Advanced Stats Preview:
No. 3 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical (7-0, 4-0) at No. 20 Louisiana State (5-2, 2-2), 6:30 p.m. on ABC from Death Valley in Baton Rouge. Aggies coming of a shootout in Arkansas, Tigers coming off a loss to Vanderbilt. This is a pretty good rivalry. As good as Texas Agricultural & Mechanical is playing, this might be a tough one for the Tigers, but a night game in Death Valley is different. Texas Agricultural & Mechanical favored by 2.5, over/under is 49.5.
BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas A. and M. | Louisiana State | .589 | 3.2 | 26.6 | 23.4 | 50.1 |
Well, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical does have more conference championships than the Tigers.
No. 17 Tennessee (5-2, 2-2) at Kentucky (2-4, 0-4), 6:45 p.m. on the SEC Network from Lexington. Volunteers favored by 8.5, over/under 54.5. Can UK cover another UT this week? Doubt it, but wouldn’t bet against them.
BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Volunteers | Wildcats | .710 | 8.1 | 28.5 | 20.3 | 48.8 |
Week Nine: Service Academies
Florida Atlantic (3-4) at Navy (6-0), 2:30 p.m. on CBSSN, from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis. The Midshipmen are having a great season. Going to be a couple of great games, Notre Dame on November 8 and then America’s Game with Army on December 13. This weekend should be smooth sailing. Navy favored by 14.5, over/under is 62.5.
Army and Air Force have the weekend off.
Top 25 – Week Nine
UCLA (3-4) at No. 2 Indiana (7-0), 11:00 a.m. on FOX from Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. The Hoosiers are looking to run the table, and this weekend should be a speed bump at worse. Indiana favored by 25.5, over is 52.5. Hoosiers to win, Bruins to cover.
Syracuse (3-4) at No. 7 Georgia Tech (7-0), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN from Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Georgia Tech’s best start to a season since 1966, Bobby Dodd’s last season as head coach. Yellow Jackets are favored by 16.5, over is 53.5. Ramblin’ Wreck to win.
No. 16 Virginia (6-1) at North Carolina (2-4), 11:00 a.m. on the ACC Network from Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. Cavaliers are favored by 10.5, over/under is 51.5. Hoos to win.
No. 18 South Florida (6-1) at Memphis (6-1), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN2 from Liberty Stadium in Memphis. A big game for the Tigers if they want to keep pace in the American. Bulls favored by 6.5, over is 57.5.
No. 11 Brigham Young (7-0) at Iowa State (5-2). 2:30 p.m. on FOX from Jack Trice Stadium in Ames. Cougars coming off a big rivalry win over Utah. Jack Trice is a good home environment for the Cyclones. Should be a very good game. Iowa State favored by 2.5, over/under is 49.5. Tough to pick an upset as well as Brigham Young is playing, but I am going do it for Jack Trice. Cyclones knock the Cougars from the ranks of the unbeaten. Sorry Jim.
No. 23 Illinois (5-2) at Washington (5-2), 2:30 p.m. on BTN from Husky Stadium in Seattle. Washington should get the win. Huskies favored by 4.5, over/under is 55.5. Washington with the win.
Oklahoma State (1-6) at No. 14 Texas Technical (6-1), 3:00 p.m. on ESPNU from Lubbock. The Sand Aggies are whopping 36.5 point favorites. Total is 54.5. Tech to win, Okie Aggies to cover.
Baylor (4-3) at No. 21 Cincinnati (6-1), 3:00 p.m. on ESPN2 from Nippert Stadium. Sawyer Robertson is leading the nation in passing (339.4 ypg), yards (2,376), and touchdowns (21), but that hasn’t been enough for the Bears who are just 2-2 in Big 12 play. Great quarterback play doesn’t necessarily mean wins. Cinci favored at home by 3.5 points, over/under is 66.5.
Wisconsin (2-5, 0-4) at No. 6 Oregon (6-1, 3-1), 6:00 p.m. on FS1 from Autzen Stadium in Eugene. Going to be a bad day to be a Badger in the Willamette Valley. Ducks favored by 31.5, over is 44.5. Oregon to win and cover.
Stanford (3-4) at No. 9 Miami (FL), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN. Hurricanes favored by 30.5, over is 45.5. Can the Cardinal of Leland Stanford Junior University pull off back-to-back upsets over Floridians? Doubtful, but my, would that be sweet!
Boston College (1-6) at No. 19 Louisville (5-1), 6:30 p.m. on the ACC Network. Cardinals favored by 25.5, over/under is 54.5. Louisville to win, BC to cover.
No. 25 Michigan (5-2, 3-1) at Michigan State (3-4, 0-4), 6:30 p.m. on NBC from Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Wolverines favored by 14.5, over/under is 47.5. Michigan to win, State to cover. Go Big Blue.
Houston (6-1) at No. 24 Arizona State (5-2), 7:00 p.m. on ESPN2 from Tempe. Sun Devils got the big upset last week over the Sand Aggies. I think their winning ways over Texans will continue Saturday night in the desert. Arizona State favored by 7.5 ,over/under is 46.5. Sun Devils with the win.
Other Games of Interest – Week Nine
Friday
North Texas at UNC Charlotte, 6:00 p.m. on ESPN2. Mean Green are big 25.5 point road favorites, over/under is 59.5. Elf & the Green to win and cover.
Cal Berkeley (5-2) at Virginia Tech (2-5), 6:30 p.m. on ESPN from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg. Hokies favored by 6.5, total is 50.5. Golden Bears to win and cover.
Saturday
Southern Methodist University (5-2, 3-0) at Wake Forest (4-2, 1-2), 11:00 a.m. on the CW Network. Mustangs are 2.5 point favorites, over/under is 53.5. Big game for the Southern Methodists from Dallas against the once Baptists Demon Deacons. Wake much improved this year. Ponies to win and cover.
Northwestern (5-2, 3-1) at Nebraska (5-2, 2-2), 11:00 a.m. on FS1 from Lincoln. Cornhuskers favored by 7.5, over/under is 44.5. Big Red to win and cover.
Kansas State (3-4) at Kansas (4-3), 11:00 a.m. on TNT from David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence. The Sunflower Showdown. Jayhawks favored by 3.5, over/under is 56.5. Jake, y’all going?
UConn (5-2) at Rice (3-4), 2:00 p.m. on ESPN+. Owls are 10.5 point home underdogs.
Western Michigan (4-3, 3-0) at Miami (4-3, 3-0) from beautiful Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio. Battle of MAC Unbeatens. Redhawks favored by 1.5, over/under is 41.5. Tough game, and I didn’t get the inside scoop from Jimmy U. I will go with Miami to win.
Texas Christian (5-2) at West Virginia (2-5), 5:00 p.m. on ESPN+ from Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown. Horned Frogs favored by 17.5, over/under is 55.5. Toads to win, ‘Eers to cover.
Colorado (3-4) at Utah (5-2), 9:15 p.m. on ESPN from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake city. Utes favored by 13.5, over/under is 49.5. Utes to win.
The UTRGV Vaqueros host the Incarnate Word Cardinals at Vackar Stadium Saturday night. Homecoming in Edinburg. David & Nolan (and Sonia?) – y’all have fun! 7:00 p.m. on ESPN+. ✌️
Bill gives Texas a 67% chance of winning and predicts a point margin of 7.2. Hope he’s right.
Washington & Lee University
It is Parents Weekend in Lexington, and the Generals will play Bridgewater. 4:00 p.m. kick-off (Shenandoah Valley time) at Wilson Field on Saturday. The Eagles are 1-5, with their only win a 41-14 drubbing of Averett (W&L’s next opponent). Bridgewater has losses to Stevenson, No. 4 Susquehanna, Randolph-Macon, Shenandoah, and Roanoke.
The Generals are second in the ODAC at 3-1, behind undefeated Randolph-Macon. W&L is fifth in Division III in rushing offense, averaging 283.7 yards per game. That would be second in the FBS, behind Navy at 305 ypg and just ahead of Army at 282.7 ypg.
SEC Officiating
The BIG news was the league’s permanent suspension of SEC referee Ken Williamson. His crew called the disastrous Georgia-Auburn game a couple of weeks ago. If I understand it, 11 complaints by Auburn, including the game-changing “no touchdown it was a fumble” fiasco, and of those 11, the SEC deemed 9 were in fact the wrong call. Monumental incompetence.
On what is hopefully an unrelated note, the NCAA has decided college athletes can bet on pro sports. More on that next week probably.
The Polls
AP Top 25 & the Coaches:
ESPN’s FPI
Mississippi State is No. 47 with an FPI of 6.8.
2025 College Football Power Index – ESPN
Bill Connelly’s SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing.
Mississippi State is No. 36 with a rating of 9.7.
Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, Alabama, Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami (FL), Oregon, Brigham Young, and the Sand Aggies at No. 10. Ole Miss at 11, Land Thieves at 12. Texas steady at No. 23.
PFF
PFF has The Ohio State University No. 1, followed by Indiana, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Brigham Young, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), and Ole Miss. Texas is at No. 20.
Mississippi State is ranked No. 44.
Kelley Ford Ratings
Ford’s Defensive Ratings
Max Olson’s Defensive Stop Rates
Here is a new one from Parker Fleming, Net Quality Drive Rate and Net Points Per Quality Drive. Better than I would have thought.
PFF Grades
If you have few minutes and are puzzled by some of the ranking, ratings, and metrics, check out this article from Tom Fornelli with CBS Sports.
College Football Power Ratings: Texas lingers despite struggles as Alabama, Oregon climb
Week Eight in the Southeastern Conference
No. 10 Louisiana State 24, No. 17 Vanderbilt 31. A huge win for the Commodores.
No. 14 Oklahoma 26, South Carolina 7. Not even close to my predicted upset.
No. 4 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 45. Arkansas 42. The Hogs put up a helluva fight. All the models were wrong, and Arkansas covered.
No. 5 Ole Miss 35, No. 9 Georgia 43. Bulldogs with a ferocious fourth quarter to get the win. And they covered the 7.5 line.
Mississippi State 21, Florida 23. A 24 point fourth quarter. Bulldogs covered.
No. 11 Tennessee 20, No. 6 Alabama 37. Crimson Tide was favored by 8.5. “Bama to win and cover.” ✔️
No. 16 Missouri 23, Auburn 17, in overtime. Auburn is so close.
Week Eight: Service Academies
Army 17, Tulane 24. Black Knights cover!
Air Force 24, Wyoming 21. Big and much needed win for the Falcons.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 34, Southern Cal Trojans 24
Irish covered. BCF predicted 35.9 to 25.9 ND. Pretty good. Parker Fleming’s (no relation) analytics said 33.95 to 27.13. Very good. I said ND 30, SC 17. Not as good.
Top 25 – Week Eight
Louisville 24, No. 2 Miami (FL) 21. I said there was a chance, and the Cardinals did indeed pull the upset. Don’t recall the last time I was pulling for Louisville, if ever.
No. 25 Nebraska falls at Minnesota. Gophers kept the Cornhuskers out of the endzone in the 24-6 upset.
No. 12 Georgia Tech 27, Duke 18. I thought that Duke being a favorite was off, and I was right.
No. 1 Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 0. Ohio State is very good. Badgers are not good at all.
Michigan State 13, No. 3 Indiana 38.
No. 7 Texas Tech 22, Arizona State 26. I sure hope I didn’t jinx the Sand Aggies.
No. 22 Memphis 24, UAB 31. The Blazers fired Trent Dilfer as their coach the week before, and then they turn around and upset what we thought was one of the 2 best Group of 6 teams. Crazy.
No. 8 Oregon 56, Rutgers 10. Ducks were favored by 17.. “Oregon to win and cover.” ✔️
No. 18 Virginia 22, Washington State 20. UVA got a field goal to tie the game at 20 with just under 3 minutes to play. The Wazzu kick returner made a bad decision and was dropped at the 2 yard line. The Cavaliers get a safety to win the game (they ran out the clock after the free kick). Hoos were favored by 17.5. “Virginia to win, Cougars to cover.” ✔️
No. 19 South Florida 48, Florida Atlantic 13.
No. 18 Brigham Young wins The Holy War 24-21 over No. 23 Utah.
No. 24 Cincinnati 49, Oklahoma State 17.
Other Games of Interest – Week Eight
San José State 25, Utah State 30.
North Carolina 18, California Berkeley 21.
Arizona 28, Houston 31. Big upset win for the Cougars.
Texas Christian 42-36 over Baylor to win The Revivalry for the 60th time. Sawyer Robertson had 2 TD passes but threw 3 interceptions, Josh Hoover threw 3 touchdowns.
Michigan 24-7 over Washington.
Eastern Michigan 30. Miami (Ohio) 44. Redhawks cover!
Southern Methodist University 35, Clemson 24. Mustangs 3-0 in the ACC. “Mustangs to cover.” ✔️
UTSA 17, North Texas 55. Mean Green were favored by 3.5 and just ran over the Roadrunners. 270 yards rushing and 314 yard passing.
Florida State University 13, Leland Stanford Junior University 20. Seminoles are 0-4 in the ACC. The Cardinal were 18.5 underdogs at home. “Stanford to cover.” ✔️
The UTRGV Vaqueros fell at No. 18 Lamar 23-21. The Vaqueros had rallied with 2 touchdowns in the fourth quarter to take a 21-20 lead before Lamar got the go-ahead field goal with a little over 2 minutes to play.
Central Texas Food Bank
All politics aside, the government shutdown is about to start really impacting some fellow Texans who live paycheck to paycheck, including a lot of soldiers up at Fort Hood. Our neighbors shouldn’t go hungry. The Central Texas Food Bank will help them.
Music
The Mississippi Blues. American music.
Robert Johnson, Kind Hearted Woman Blues.
Robert Johnson, Crossroad
Mississippi John Hurt, You Got to Walk that Lonesome Valley
R.L. Burnside, Mississippi Blues
R.L. Burnside, See My Jumper Hanging on the Line
Bukka White, Aberdeen Mississippi Blues
The Longhorn Alphabet: Texas Football A to Z
My friend Taylor “RT” Young has written a great children’s book for Longhorn families.
https://longhornalphabet.com/products/the-longhorn-alphabet-texas-football-a-z
Jim Nicar
“1965: A birds eye view of the U.T. Austin campus 60 years ago, when the Undergraduate Library (today’s Flawn Academic Center) was new, and West Campus was mostly houses. Look closely: there’s no Calhoun Hall yet on the South Mall.”
From Jim’s October 21, 2025, post on X:
Of note, this picture was taken several years before our new President, Jim Davis, was born.
Picture of the Week
JType. This photo is from his August 18, 2025 post on Instagram.
On X: @tctayloratx
On LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/tctatx
On Instagram: @tctayloratx
On Facebook: www.Facebook.com/Tim.C.Taylor
and: www.Facebook.com/Juan.Heisman
You can contact me by mail:
Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371