Texas Longhorns 45, Mississippi State Bulldogs 38
The Texas Longhorns escaped Starkville with an improbable come from behind, overtime win, again thanks in large part to Ryan Niblett who tied the game on a 79 punt return with 2:04 minutes left to play. Watch the field level video too.
https://x.com/TexasFootball/status/1982246798950367444
This is magnificent from Derek Ochoa and the creative media team. You have probably seen it, but worth watching again.
Monday Morning Highlights:
On X:
https://x.com/TexasFootball/status/1982793541911761338
On Instagram:
Los Longhorns en Español
On Instagram:
On X:
https://x.com/TexasFootball/status/1983550939706409178
No. 9/11 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 20/19 Texas Longhorns
After a 42 day hiatus, the Horns are back home for big game with Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 7-1 overall and tied for third in the SEC with Texas at 3-1. Big game indeed. Kickoff at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium at 11:00 a.m. on ABC and the stations and streaming platforms of the American Broadcasting Company and the Entertainment and Sports Programming Network. Calling the game will be the excellent team of Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, and Molly McGrath. Texas usually does well with McDonough in the booth. Some big wins, including the 2019 Sugar Bowl and the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game, plus the 2018 48-45 win over the Land Thieves and the 2023 win over Kansas. A couple of tough losses, including the 2018 Big 12 CG and the 2024 Sugar Bowl CFP game with Washington.
The game can be heard around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns Craig Way, joined by Roger Wallace in the booth and by Will Matthews on the sidelines. Listen in Austin on the Flagship, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM and in Tyler on KTBB 600 AM and 92.1 FM. Listen in San Angelo and the Concho Valley with Mr. McLaughlin on KKSA 1260 AM. SiriusXM Channel 82. Dr. Rubén Pizarro-Silva and Jesus Mendoza with the call in Spanish on certain Longhorn Radio Network affiliates and streaming on the Texas Longhorn App and online. One note, as this has come up recently. The streaming services for some of the radio stations (e.g., KVET) may not carry the game. So, if you can’t actually tune into a station in its home market (or listen to it on a radio app), your best bet is stream through the Texas Longhorn app or mobile player https://texas.leanplayer.com/.
SEC Nation will be live from The Forty Acres for a Texas Longhorn game day. SEC Nation will air live on SEC Network from Gregory Gym Plaza from 9:00 to 10:00. Before that, Marty & McGee will be live 8-9. And Friday afternoon, the Paul Finebaum Show will be live from Gregory Gym Plaza from 2 until 6.
Saturday is also the “Salute to Service Game”, honoring service members and veterans and their families. A good day to stop by the Frank Denius Veterans Memorial Plaza on your way into the stadium.
It has been a while since Vanderbilt played in Austin. 122 years actually, a 6-6 tie in 1903. Vanderbilt leads the all-time series with Texas 8-4-1.
The early betting odds, Sunday night:
The odds early Friday morning.
College Football Last Weekend
Several games turned out to be better than expected. No. 5 Ole Miss beat No. 13 Oklahoma, 34-26 in Norman, despite the Land Thieves being the better team according to Brent Venables (after the loss). No. 4 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical with an incredible 35 point second half at No. 20 Louisiana State to win 49-25, resulting in the firing of Brian Kelly. Ironic that LSU Tiger fans for at least the next generation will be indebted to our Fightin’ Texas Aggies for embarrassing Louisiana State so bad that they fired the coach and the Governor is already involved in the hiring process. No. 16 Virginia needed another overtime to win, beating North Carolina 17-16. No. 15 Missouri 10, No. 10 Vanderbilt 17.
College Football This Weekend
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, No. 5 Georgia and the Florida Gators meet in Jacksonville, 2:30 p.m. on ABC. No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee , 6:30 p.m. on ABC. Definitely watching that, hopefully with a bit of Pol Roger as we celebrate a Texas win. A late night Big 12 game between No. 17 Cincinnati and No. 24 Utah, 9:15 p.m. on ESPN.
Parker’s Power Walkers
My son-in-law Parker has T1D. Since Mary Elizabeth and Parker started dating (and Mary Elizabeth worked for the JDRF chapter in D.C.), Type-1 diabetes has been part of our family’s life. And, of course, part of Parker’s life and his family’s life for much longer. It is a challenging condition to live with every day, and while medical and technology advances have made management easier, it is a pernicious disease that still negatively impacts lives all the time.
Parker is on the Austin Chapter Board for Breakthrough T1D (formerly JDRF). This Sunday is the Breakthrough T1D Walk. I would appreciate your consideration of support for Parker, Mary Elizabeth, Lottie, and Talley.
Breakthrough T1D Walk, Austin: Parker’s Power Walkers
2025 Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt is 7-1, 3-1 in SEC, and has 3 wins over ranked teams. Their only loss is 14-30 at No. 10 Alabama. An historic Commodore team coming to Austin.
The Roster
Vandy Offense
The Commodore offense begins with and relies heavily on Diego Pavia (No. 2, 6 foot, 207 pounds, graduate). Diego became somewhat of a college football sensation last year, as he led the Dores in their upset of No. 1 Alabama, arguably the greatest win in Vanderbilt history, at least in the last 100 or so years. This season, he is still the poster boy and mouth of Vanderbilt football, not lacking in confidence or hutzpah. Pavia is 139/202 for 1,698 yards (8.4 yards per attempt and 12.2 yards per completion) and he has 15 touchdown passes. Good numbers, with just 5 interceptions and 7 sacks, and 37 yards lost in sacks. His QB Rating is 159.0 (20th nationally), and his QBR is 82.2, 12th in the country. Pavia leads Vanderbilt in rushing with 85 carries for 458 yards and 5 touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Pavia has 17 runs over 10 yards, 4 over 20, and 2 over 30. He’s 12th in the SEC in rushing with 458 yards on 85 attempts, with 5 rushing touchdowns. That’s an average of 5.39 yards per carry. His backups are Blaze Berlowitz and Whit Muschamp (yes, Coach Boom’s boy).
The leading running back for Vanderbilt is Sedrick Alexander (No. 28, 5-9, 207 pounds, Junior), out of LBJ High School right here in Austin. Alexander has 73 carries for 388 yards and 6 , with a long of 65 yards. He also has 10 catches for 105 yards and 4 touchdowns. In the Texas game last year, Alexander was held to 32 yards on 10 carries. Makhilyn Young (No. 22, 5-10, 210 pound Junior, Midland, Texas – Legacy HS) has 21 rushes for 382 yards (80 on one run) and 5 touchdowns. Jamezell Lassiter (No. 41, 5-8, 196 pounds, sophomore) has 144 yards on just 8 rushes and 2 scores, a healthy 18 yards per carry.
One reason Vanderbilt has a solid offense is that they have a great tight end, Eli Stowers (No. 9, 6-4, 235 pounds, Graduate, Denton Guyer), who leads the team with 31 catches for 397 yards, a long of 48, with 2 touchdowns. Stowers was originally at Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, where he was a quarterback. The other tight end is Cole Spence (No. 16, 6-7, 255 pounds senior), who has 8 catches for 127 yards, a strong 15.9 ypc average, and one touchdown catch.
Junior Sherrill (No. 0, 5-11, 203 pounds, junior), with a name that sounds like it belongs in Nashville (and he is from there), leads the wide receivers with 26 catches for 312 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tre Richardson (No. 6, 5-10, 175 pounds, junior) has 24 catches for 304 yards and a touchdown. Richie Hoskins (No. 5, 6-1, 200 pounds, graduate) has 16 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown.
Vandy Defense
Safety C.J. Heard (No. 5-11, 210 pounds, sophomore) leads the Commodore defense with 43 tackles (29 solo), a sack, an interception, and a forced fumble. Brian Longwell (No. 11, 6-1, 240 linebacker) has 41 tackles (19 solo) and an interception. Langston Patterson (No. 10, 6-1, 235 pounds, senior linebacker) has 33 tackles (14 solo). Marlen Sewell (No. 7, 6-1, 205 pounds graduate, safety) has 27 tackles (14 solo). Martel Hight (No. 4, 6 foot, 188 pounds, junior cornerback) has 25 tackles (18 solo) and an interception.
The other linebackers are Randon Fontenette (No. 2, 6-2, 220 pound junior from Freeport, Texas), has 24 tackles (16 solo) and 3 passes defended. Nick Rinaldi (No. 24, 6-3, 240 pounds, Senior) has 24 tackles (12 solo).
Mike Capers (No. 29, 6-4, 249 pound graduate, edge) leads the Dores with 4.5 sacks for 42 yards – part of a 25 tackles season. He is very good and will be a handful for the spotty Texas O Line. Zaylin Wood (No. 15, 6 foot, 280 pound, graduate) has 3 sacks for 22 yards and an interception. Khordae Sydnor (No. 96, 6-4, 272 pound graduate), who is not named after a character in Star Trek, best I can tell, has 2.4 sacks for 16 yards.
Brock Taylor (No. 88, 6-1, 165 pound junior, no relation) is 7/7 on field goals with a long of 51 yards and is 37/38 on extra points. Very reliable.
Note that of the leading players highlighted above, which doesn’t include any offensive lineman, 7 are listed as graduate and 3 are seniors. This is a very experienced football team. And very well coached.
The 2025 Vanderbilt Season:
Game 1: The Commodores opened at home with the Charleston Southern Buccaneers, a 45-3 beating. The stats were as, if not more, lopsided than the score. Charleston Southern managed 88 yards passing and 47 yards rushing, fumbled, and were intercepted.
Diego Pavia picked up where he left off in 2024, with a 20/25, 275 yards, 3 touchdowns day in the air, plus 8 carries for 44 yards. QBR of 83.4. Eli Stowers – 4 catches for 86 yards, a long of 41. Tre Richards 5 catches 75 yards, a long of 25. Junior Sherrill 3 for 33 and a touchdown, Kayleb Barnett 3 for 30 and a touchdown. Sedrick Alexander had 12 carries for 83 yards and a 26 yard touchdown catch. Sedrick Alexander (Austin LBJ) has 12 carries for 83 yards.
Game 2: A very good win, 44-20, over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Pavia 12/18, 193 yards, 2 TDs, 1 pick, ran for 61 yards, QBR of 86.9. Eli Stowers 4 catches for 29 yards and a touchdown. Tre Richardson 3 catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. Brycen Coleman had 1 catch, but it was 54 yards for a touchdown. Makhilyn Young had a big 62 yard run, and he ended up with 95 yards on 8 carries. Sedrick Alexander had 10 carries for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns (also fumbled).
Nick Rinaldi with 6 tackles, 1 sack, 2.5 TFL. Marlen Sewell, Bryan Longell, and C.G. Heard each with 5 tackles.
Game 3: The Commodores went to Columbia for a game with No. 11 South Carolina. Vanderbilt dominated the Gamecocks, 31-7. Pavia was a steady 18/25 for 177 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 pick. Ran for 24 yards. Eli Stowers had 3 catches for 45 yards, Tre Richardson and Martel Hight each had 4 (34 yards and 33 yards respectively). Sedrick Alexander had 13 carries for 41 yards, just 3.2 ypc. Jamezell Lassiter had 1 rushing attempt and made the best of it, 44 yards for a touchdown.
LaNorris Sellers got knocked out of the game in the second quarter on a nasty (targeting) hit from Langston Patterson. Sellers and his replacement were intercepted twice. Gamecocks only generated 86 yards rushing. C.J. Heard had 12 tackles – all solo; you don’t see double digit, solo-only tackle stats often. He is good. Nick Rinaldi 7 tackles with a sack and 2.5 TFL.
Game 4: No. 20 Vanderbilt curb-stomped the Georgia State Panthers 70-21. Pavia was 18/24, 245 yards, 1 touchdown plus 9 carries for 86 yards (9.6 ypc) and a score. QBR of 90.5. All four Vandy quarterbacks got in the game. Stowers 5 receptions for 73 yards. Makhilyn Young another big 60 yard run. Commodores ended up with 349 yards passing and 286 yards and 8 touchdowns rushing.
Game 5: No. 18 Vanderbilt 55, Utah State Aggies 35. What jumped out to me when I first looked at this was Utah State scoring 35 points. As of last week, those Aggies were 49th in the nation in scoring offense, higher than expected. In fact, the Vandy loss was their biggest point total in 2025, and that includes games against UTEP (16-28 loss) and New Mexico (14-33 loss).
Pavia was 26/34, 321 yards, 5 TDs, 1 pick, plus 9 carries for 79 yards and a touchdown. That’s averaging 9.4 yards per passing attempt and 8.8 yards per rush. His QBR was 92.3. Junior Sherrill had 6 catches for 91 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tre Richardson 6 catches for 74 yards. Eli Stowers 6 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. Richie Hoskins 4 for 70 and a score, a long of 53 yards.
Pavia was the Dores’ leading rusher. Jamezell Lassiter had 2 carries for 52 yards, while Alexander pounded out 33 yards on 8 carries. Lots Dores on defense- no
Game 6: No. 16 Vanderbilt 14, No. 10 Alabama 30. The Crimson Tide offense lit up Vandy. Ty Sympson 23/31 for 340 yards and 2 scores (1 INT). 146 yards rushing and a score, 136 of that from Bama’s Jam Miller. C.J. Heard and Bryan Longwell each had 8 tackles. Langston Patterson had 7. Wood, Sydnor, Singh, and Capers all recorded sacks.
Diego Pavia was 21/35 for 198 yards, 1 score, 1 pick; rushed for 58 yards on 12 tries, and 36 of that was on one run. Junior Sherrill 6 catches for 49 yards, Cole Spence 2 for 45. Sedrick Alexander had 4 carries for 76 yards and a score, a 65 yard touchdown run in the first quarter.
Game 7: No. 10 Louisiana State 24, No. 17 Vanderbilt 31. Pavia with 160 yards passing and a touchdown pass to Cole Spence, and he led the Commodores with 86 yards rushing on 17 carries and got 2 touchdowns. QBR of 92.6. Spence had 5 catches for 56 yards, Stowers 3 for 32, and Sherril 2 for 30. Young carried 6 times for 85 yards, had a long of 43 plus another for 28. Alexander 13 carries for 42 yards and a touchdown.
LSU’s Nussmeier was respectable 19/28 for 225 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Tigers rushed for 100 yards. Vandy’s defense: Langston Patterson 5 tackles, all solo. Singh and Heard with 4 tackles each.
Game 8: No. 15 Missouri 10, No. 10 Vanderbilt 17. The Vandy win marked the first time in school history that the Commodores had 3 wins over top 25 teams in a season. Pavia was 10/19 for 129 yards and threw an interception. He had 8 carries for 20 yards and a touchdown. Not a big day. Makhilyn Young had 4 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown. That was an 80 yard touchdown run late in the third quarter that put the Dores up 10-3. The Tiger defense controlled Sedrick Alexander, limiting him to 27 yards on 10 carries.
Bryan Longwell had 13 tackles. C.J. Heard and Langston Patterson each had 8 tackles. Capers had 7, and Marlen Sewell, Dontae Carter, Randon Fontenette, and Joshua Singh each had 6 tackles.
Tigers QB Beau Pribula got injured early in the third quarter, and Missouri was relying freshman Matt Zollers. He did get a touchdown pass, but a late pass as time was running out came up just short of the endzone. Vandy got pretty lucky.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Texas Longhorns
The Statistics
The first ranking is national, the second is SEC.
Offense
Statistic |
Texas |
Vanderbilt |
Rushing Offense |
#90, #11 – 139.8 ypg | #24, #3 – 203.4 ypg |
| Passing Offense | #66, #11 – 235.9 ypg | #71, #13 – 230.3 ypg |
| Total Offense | #79, #11 – 375.7 ypg | #33, #6 – 433.7 ypg |
| Scoring Offense | #66, #10 – 29.0 ppg | #12, #2 – 38.4 ppg |
| First Downs | #115, #15 – 18.0/game | #32, #8 – 22.5/game |
| Sacks Allowed | #100, #12 – 18, 105 yards | #12, #1 – 7, 37 yards |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed* | #121, #14 – 53, 206 yards | #5, #2 – 26, 77 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #85, #13 – 38.5% | #9, #2 – 52.5% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #111, #14 – 41.7% (5/12) | #73, #11 – 55.6% (5/9) |
| Touchdowns | #61, #10 – 28 total, 19 RZ | #6, #2 – 41 total, 30 RZ |
| Red Zone Attempts | #47, #8 – 31 | #10, #4 – 38 |
| Red Zone Offense | #93, #14 – 81% / 61% | #40, #9 – 89% / 79% |
| Long Run Plays | #85, #11 – 33/10, 6/20, 5/30, 4/40, 1/50 | #38, #5 – 42/10, 16/20, 11/30, 4/40, 4/50 |
| Long Pass Plays | #60, #10 – 72/10, 29/20, 17/30, 7/40 | #38, #8 – 77/10, 24/20, 9/30, 5/40 |
| Long Punt Returns | #2, #1 – 7/20, 6/30, 6/40, 2/50 | #98, #14 – -0- |
*Texas is tied with Sam Houston State
Defense
Statistic |
Texas |
Vanderbilt |
| Rushing Defense | #3, #1 – 80.8 ypg | #18, #6 – 101.9 ypg |
| Passing Defense | #66, #9 – 219.1 ypg | #70, #11 – 220.8 ypg |
| Total Defense | #19, #3 – 299.9 ypg | #31, #8 – 322.7 ypg |
| Scoring Defense | #10, #2 – 14.6 ppg | #24, #6 – 18.8 ppg |
| First Downs Allowed | #26, #5 – 17.0/game | #35, #8 – 17.9/game |
| Sacks | #4, #3 – 28, 182 yards | #20, #7 – 21, 166 yards |
| Tackles for Loss | #27, #7 – 52, 246 yards | #18, #5 – 54, 268 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #21, #4 – 31.7% | #55, #8 – 36.9% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #4, #1 – 25% (5/20) | #107, #12 – 64.7% (11/17) |
| Red Zone Attempts | #5, #1 – 15 | #39, #8 – 23 |
| Red Zone Defense | #34, #4 – 80% / 60% | #60, #9 – 82% / 57% |
| Long Run Plays Allowed | #19, #6 – 22/10, 2/20, 1/30, 0/40 | #31, #7 – 27/10, 8/20, 3/30, 2/40 |
| Long Pass Plays Allowed | #97, #12 – 71/10, 21/20, 7/30, 5/40 | #97, #12 – 71/10, 19/20, 8/30, 2/40 |
Other
Statistic |
Texas |
Vanderbilt |
| Turnovers | #25, #3 – 7 (1F, 6I) | #25, #3 – 7 (2F, 5I) |
| Turnover Margin | #13, #2 – 14:7 +7 | #35, #5 – 11:7 +4 |
| Penaltiesπ | #131, #14 – 64, 525 yards | #106, #9 – 56, 526 yards |
πBased on total number of penalties.
TCT Note – Texas TFL + Texas Penalties 731 yards. Basically 2 games worth of offense.
Match-up Comparison
Texas Offense |
Vanderbilt Defense |
| Rushing Offense – 139.8 ypg | 101.9 ypg – Rushing Defense |
| Passing Offense – 235.9 ypg | 220.8 ypg – Passing Defense |
| Total Offense – 375.7 ypg | 322.7 ypg – Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense – 29.0 ppg | 18.8 ppg – Scoring Defense |
| First Downs – 18.0/game | 17.9/game – First Downs Allowed |
| 3rd Down Offense – 38.5% | 36.9% – 3rd Down Defense |
| 4th Down Offense – 41.7% | 64.7% – 4th Down Defense |
| Red Zone Offense – 81%/61% | 82%/57% – Red Zone Defense |
| LRP – 33/10, 6/20, 5/30, 4/40, 1/50 | 27/10, 8/20, 3/30, 2/40 – LRP Allowed |
| LPP – 72/10, 29/20, 17/30, 7/40 | 71/10, 19/20, 8/30, 2/40 – LPP Allowed |
Texas Defense |
Vanderbilt Offense |
| Rushing Defense – 80.8 ypg | 203.4 ypg – Rushing Offense |
| Passing Defense – 219.1 ypg | 230.3 ypg – Passing Offense |
| Total Defense – 299.9 ypg | 433.7 ypg – Total Offense |
| Scoring Defense – 14.6 ppg | 38.4 ppg – Scoring Offense |
| First Downs Allowed – 17.0/game | 22.5/game – First Downs |
| 3rd Down Defense – 31.7% | 52.5% – 3rd Down Offense |
| 4th Down Defense – 25% | 55.6% – 4th Down Offense |
| Red Zone Defense – 80%/60% | 89%/79% – Red Zone Offense |
| LRP Allowed – 22/10, 2/20, 1/30, 0/40 | 42/10, 16/20, 11/30, 4/40, 4/50 – LRP |
| LPP Allowed – 71/10, 21/20, 7/30, 5/40 | 77/10, 24/20, 9/30, 5/40 – LPP |
BCF Toys
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | |
| Texas | No. 17: 0.77 | No. 45: 0.09 | No. 9: 0.56 | No. 3: 0.14 |
| Vanderbilt | No. 16: 0.80 | No. 10: 0.55 | No. 40: 0.20 | No. 21: 0.07 |
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 37: 0.090 | No. 90: 0.435 | No. 12: 0.345 |
| Vanderbilt | No. 16: 0.156 | No. 9: 0.625 | No. 0.469 |
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 24: 1.05 | No. 69: 2.25 | No. 7: 1.20 |
| Vanderbilt | No. 6: 1.77 | No. 2: 3.78 | No. 50: 2.02 |
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 49: 0.52 | No. 98: 5.27 | No. 14: 4.74 |
| Vanderbilt | No. 7: 1.87 | No. 6: 7.25 | No. 44: 5.38 |
| PVE | OVE | DVE | SVE | |
| Texas | No. 17: 0.61 | No. 81: -0.14 | No. 7: 0.62 | No. 4: 0.14 |
| Vanderbilt | No. 6: 0.86 | No. 4: 0.63 | No. 47: 0.19 | No. 25: 0.08 |
In BCF’s F+ ratings (Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings combined with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings), Texas dropped to No. 16 from No. 11.
| F+ | OF+ | DF+ | SF+ | |
| Texas | No. 17: 1.30 | No. 51: 0.41 | No. 7: 1.80 | No. 18: 1.17 |
| Vanderbilt | No. 15: 1.31 | No. 12: 1.54 | No. 32: 0.73 | No. 11: 1.31 |
BCF Game Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas Longhorns | Vanderbilt | 0.555 | 1.9 | 27.1 | 25.2 | 52.3 |
PFF
Texas’ overall rating is 92.8, placing it at No. 15. Vanderbilt’s overall rating is 91.3, placing it at No. 21. The numbers below are just the PFF grades.
| Offense | Passing | Pass Blocking | Receiving | Run | Run Blocking | |
| UT | 76.7 | 77.4 | 65.8 | 74.8 | 80.0 | 65.0 |
| VU | 80.0 | 83.4 | 54.2 | 78.9 | 86.0 | 61.8 |
Texas grades on offense ticked up a bit. Defense ticked down.
| Defense | Run D | Tackling | Pass Rush | Coverage | |
| UT | 93.3 | 93.44 | 86.1 | 84.0 | 89.2 |
| VU | 90.6 | 89.3 | 75.3 | 77.5 | 83.9 |
Texas Special Teams: No. 29 – 81.3 rating. Vanderbilt is ranked No. 18 with a ST rating of 84.2. I believe in Ryan Niblett, but let’s not be in a situation where we need a fourth quarter punt return touchdown to tie the game.
Parker Fleming’s Advanced Stats Preview
A refresher on these, as they are useful.
EPA – Expected Points Added: Measures how much a play (or series of plays) changes a team’s expected points. Positive EPA means the offense improved their scoring chances, negative EPA means they hurt their scoring chances. This is the gold standard for measuring play efficiency.
MARGIN – EPA Margin: The difference between a team’s offensive EPA and defensive EPA. This shows overall team dominance – a positive margin means your offense is scoring more efficiently than opponents are scoring against your defense.
OVER/UNDER – Overall EPA: The team’s average EPA per play (offense or defense). Shows how efficient a unit is on a per-play basis.
RUSH – Rushing EPA: Average EPA on designed running plays. Tells you how effective the run game is at moving the ball and scoring when the offense calls a run play.
PASS – Passing EPA: Average EPA on all dropbacks (pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles). Shows how effective the passing attack is when the quarterback drops back to pass.
All the terms here: CFB GRAPHS – College Football Analytics
Official Game Notes from The University:
https://texaslonghorns.com/documents/2025/10/27/Week_10_-_Vanderbilt.pdf
Week 10 Notes from the SEC:
https://www.secsports.com/football-weekly-release
Previews:
Josh Pate, about 9 minutes:
CBS Sports College Football. 9+ minutes:
ESPN College Football. 11 minutes. Interesting, good insight from Greg McElroy, and some good highlights.
PFF preview – stats heavy.
Thursday SEC Student Availability Report
The ESPN Matchup Predictor
TCT Thoughts
The Longhorns are in for a close game on Saturday I think. As of late Thursday night, we know Arch Manning has been practicing, and he’s listed as questionable. But a huge wild card for the Horns. And perhaps a wild card for the Commodores when it comes to defensive game planning. Equally concerning to me is the Texas quarterback on the defensive side of the ball. The Longhorns sure seemed to miss Michael Taaffe’s presence on the field in Starkville. My guess is Taaffe is more likely to be out there on the turf of Campbell-Williams Field, but what will his efficacy be with his hand in a cast?
All of that has been weighing on my this week plus the three quarters of porous defense against Blake Shapen and the Bulldogs as I ponder a very confident – okay, cocky – quarterback coming to town with the near disaster in Starkville. I have not struggled this much to coalesce my thoughts about a game in a long time. Had Texas done what I expected against Mississippi State, I would be easily predicting a score along the lines Texas 28-20 or Texas 31-24. Something relatively close, but a comfortable win, at least by the final gun. The Texas defense would make Vandy one dimensional by shutting down the run, and then limit Pavia’s effectiveness with his legs and contain the Commodore passing attack.
The combination of these unforeseen variables has really created a lot of uncertainties. I still think this defense can help Texas win the game, but the offense is going to have to do a better job of some sustained scoring drives. Pavia is going to produce points, and the best way to limit that production is to limit his possibilities. That means get a decent running game going, get the tight ends more involved, and protect whoever is playing quarterback.
On defense, either Hill or Lefau or someone is going to have to be responsible for Pavia on every snap. But they can’t let that distract them defending the big plays that Makhilyn Young is so capable of making. The secondary is going to have their hands full with Stowers and Sherrill and the other receivers, which means the front 7 are going to have to play an almost flawless game. That includes watching out for those underneath screens and shovel passes, which we seem so susceptible to allowing for big gains.
I am going to be optimistic. It is going to be a beautiful day in Austin, Texas. All of our grandchildren are coming to the game. Texas has a chance to win a big game against a top 10 opponent.
I think Colin Simmons and Anthony Hill, Jr. have big days. The defense does its job. I got a feeling somehow, someway, the Texas Longhorns get the run game going. Not sure who it will be, just feel like we are due. I trust Steve Sarkisian and the coaching staff to have all of the Longhorns ready to play. Texas is going to get the win on Saturday.
Texas Longhorns 27, Vanderbilt Commodores 24
A Bit of History
Texas and Vanderbilt actually have a long history, albeit one with very few games played. The first game was in Nashville in 1899, a 6-0 Vandy win. In 1900, Texas and Vanderbilt met for the first time in Dallas, a 22-0 Varsity victory over Vandy. Two trips to Nashville in 1905 and 1906 were ugly – Texas lost 33-0 and 45-0. Then, Texas and Vanderbilt played each other at the State Fair of Texas six times in the 1920’s (1921-1928, except 1924, and with the 1925 game in Nashville). Why not the Land Thieves? Oklahoma had been part of the formation of the Big 8 in 1920, and from what I have read members of the Big 8 were not allowed to play neutral site games (Texas would win at Norman in 1922 (32-7) and in Austin in 1923 (26-14)). But that rule got changed. According to the information on what is one of the best Texas athletics history websites – Texas Legacy Sports Network, Texas A.D. Theo Belmont signed a 10 year deal with the Land Thieves to start playing at the State Fair. As to why Oklahoma, TLSN quotes Theo Bellmont as saying “We couldn’t get anybody else.” Texas and OU played at Fair Park in 1929, with Texas shutting out the Land Thieves 21-0, and the next year beating the Land Thieves in the Cotton Bowl 17-7.
Back to Vanderbilt. Lots of ties to The University, starting with the SIAA. The Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association was, as the name suggests, more of an association than a conference. Formed in 1894 by a Vanderbilt chemistry professor (Dr. William Dudley, fascinating man in his own right), the SIAA’s original members were Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, North Carolina, Johns Hopkins, Sewanee, Vandy, and Virginia. In 1895, Texas, Clemson, Cumberland, Louisiana State, Mississippi A & M, Kentucky, Tulane, Mercer, Southwestern Presbyterian, and the University of Nashville joined). Lots of interesting politics as schools struggled with managing intercollegiate athletics, including freshman eligibility and kids getting paid in summer baseball leagues.
Vanderbilt has 6 team national championships. The Vandy Boys won the 2014 College World Series and then got their second in Omaha in 2019. Women’s tennis won the National Championship in 2015. Vanderbilt also has three national championships in bowling (2007, 2018, and 2023). Better than meat judging.
The authors of the Vandy football Wikipedia page do include six “awarded” national championships: 1906 (8-1, 6-0), 1910 (8-0-1, 5-0), 1911 (8-1, 5-0), 1918 (4-2, 4-0), 1921 (7-0-1, 4-0-1), and 1922 (8-0-1, 3-0). Credit to Vanderbilt that they do not make any pretense of claiming these mythical creatures as natties.
Vanderbilt University
Vanderbilt University is a very fine institution of higher education. Founded in 1873, Vanderbilt is one of America’s great private universities. One of the Southern Ivies. Named in honor of Cornelius Vanderbilt, who gave a $1,000,000 endowment (about $27 million today). Before this generous gift from America’s richest man, the name was The Central University of the Methodist Episcopal Church, South. A great undergraduate program and exceptional post-graduate and doctoral programs. Lots of great friends, and now friends’ children, have gone to Vanderbilt.
Academic Rankings |
||
National |
||
Texas |
Vanderbilt |
|
| Forbes | 46 | 11 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 30 | 18 |
| Washington Monthly | 98 | 21 |
| WSJ/College Pulse | 41 | 44 |
Global |
||
| ARWU | 45 | 66 |
| QS | 68 (#4 U.S. Publics) | 250 |
| THE | 50 | 90 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 65 | 66 |
Famous alumni include John Nance Garner (a great Texan), Al Gore, Charlie Soong, James Patterson, Robert Penn Warren, Governor Greg Abbott (J.D. 1984), Joe Bob Briggs, Lamar Alexander, Bill Bain, David Brinkley, Dinah Shore, Rosanne Cash, Elizabeth Little Howden, Dierks Bentley, Dansby Swanson, David Price, James Taylor Gwathmey (the Father of Modern Anesthesia), and Dr. Jason B. Fleming.
Texas Longhorns 45, Mississippi State Bulldogs 38
Obviously, predicting the outcome of football games is extraordinarily difficult. The only people who make money on it are the sports books, and most of that is made not on betting on the exact score, but on the line. Even before all the analytics we have today, the bookies were able to set lines that, more often in not brought in more bets that lost then bets than won. I had predicted Texas 24, Mississippi State 17. So, in one sense – a spread – I nailed it. But the reality is that I missed by six (6!) touchdowns.
I certainly didn’t anticipate that a passing offense that was 70th in the country and averaging 227.3 yards per game would shred the Texas secondary for 382 yards and 5 touchdowns, a pass defense that while imperfect, had only allowed 3 passing touchdowns all season and was only giving up 195.9 yards per game. Jeff Lebby and his staff identified some weaknesses, and Blake Shapen exploited them, at least for the first three quarters.
The first quarter started well, with the Texas defense forcing a three and out and then scoring on the first offensive play with a behind the LOS pass to Wingo who turned it up field and ran 60 yards to the Mississippi State 3 yard line. Arch Manning took it in from there and Texas had a quick 7-0 lead.
Bulldog’s next possession was a 3 and out, as was the next Longhorn series. Ethan Burke blocked the State field goal (would loom large), but Texas went backwards when they got the ball back due to a 10 yard sack. An unusually poor Bouwmeester punt gave MSU the ball at midfield, and they didn’t waste it. The four positive yard plays on that drive: 10 yard pass, 10 yard run, 20 yard pass, and 13 yard touchdown pass. Those first three passes were all on first down, and the touchdown pass was to a kid who had only caught one pass all year. Disturbing.
Texas responded by gaining 3 yards and punting. Fortunately, on State’s next possession, the defense made another big fourth down stop after the Bulldogs (inexplicably) decided to go for it on fourth and 1 from their own 37. Texas had great field position, and while it would take the Horns 10 plays to get there (despite a very good 10 yard run from Baxter), they did get in the endzone on a very good Manning to Livingstone pass that put the Horns up 14-7. Another critical play, this is one that isn’t in the box score – Texas kicked that field goal to go up 10-7, and State was called for a personal foul. Sark took the points off the board and put the offense back on the field.
The next Mississippi State possession sent a statement: “We can play with you, and we can beat your defense with big plays.” The Bulldogs drove 83 yards, which included a 26 yard pass, a 12 yard run from Shapen (probably one of his longest of the season), and a 24 yard pass and catch that got State to the Texas 7 yard line. The Bulldog receivers were running free and open, exploiting holes in the Texas D. Texas nearly stopped them, but the deflected pass somehow got in Traore’s hands, and it was 14-14 and Davis Wade Stadium was mostly cowbells and horns down.
The teams traded punts, but Texas was holding serve on field position. Texas got the ball on the UT 42 with 5:47 to play. I happened to be listening to the radio call at this point, and Craig Way, Roger Wallace, and Will Matthews were discussing the situation. Will thought it would be good to have a sustained 5+ minute drive and take a 21-14 lead to the locker room. I think (not 100% sure) Craig Way said the perhaps Sark and the Horns were thinking go fast, score quickly, and get the ball back before half with a chance for another score.
Didn’t work out so well, as Arch Manning threw an interception on first down as the ball went off of Livingstone’s hands and right into the Bulldog’s paws. The defense kept State out of the end zone but not off the scoreboard, as they got a field goal to go up 17-14 with 2:30 in the half. The jinx continued, as Texas fumbled (recovered) on a run play that lost 6 yards, Arch hit Moore to get a little back, but Manning was sacked on third and 9 for 7 yards, resulting in a MSU timeout and Texas punting from its own 19.
Not a bad punt, but Mississippi State got the ball at its own 40 with 96 seconds, and Shapen didn’t waste it. A 6 play, 60 yard, 65 second drive that included an 11 yard pass, a 7 yard pass, a 15 yard pass, and a 23 yard touchdown pass to Thompson who got behind two defenders. Shapen was 4-4 for 56 yards, and State had a 24-14 lead.
State ran 49 offensive plays in the first half, and Shapen passed for 187 yards.
Texas got the ball to start the second half and looked good moving the ball, mainly with a behind the LOS pass to Wingo that went for 47 yards to the State 14. Texas redzone challenges still, as the Horns couldn’t get in the endzone and then Shipley missed a 29 yard field goal. Big, big miss.
The Texas defense held the next two times on the field, including another fourth down stop at midfield. But again the offense could not produce, as Manning was sacked on third down at the Mississippi State 35.
The Bulldogs went on a solid 8 play, 80 yard touchdown drive that saw MSU convert a third and 13 and again saw the Texas defense give up yardage in huge chunks – a 21 yard pass play, a 33 yard pass, and an 11 yard pass, all in a row, and it was first and goal at the Texas 4 yard line. With 26 seconds left in the third quarter, Mississippi State went up 31-14.
Texas needed a miracle. Or at least a hero. Arch Manning stepped up. What a fourth quarter.
Texas had the ball as the fourth quarter started, and Manning aired one out to Wingo for a 62 yard completion to the MSU 3 yard line. 2 DPI and a false start later, Manning again connected with Livingstone to cut the lead to 31-21. A lot of hope.
Somehow, Shapen and State answered with their own 62 yard play, a short shovel pass to Booth. Why is Texas so vulnerable to that damn shovel pass? Just like that, 38-21 and Texas is down 3 scores again with 12 and a half minutes in the game.
Texas responded well to the adversity. Manning led the Horns on a 9 play, 75 yard touchdown drive that started with a completion to tight end Jack Endries. The drive nearly ended on fourth down and one at the Texas 34 when Manning missed Livingstone, but Mississippi State was correctly flagged for roughing the passer. Extraordinarily bad luck for the Bulldogs, and an absolute game saver for Texas. Arch kept the Horns moving, and on second down from the Mississippi State 21 yard line, Arch made a really great pass, and Emmett Mosley V made a great sliding catch in the end zone to get the Horns back within 10 points.
The next Mississippi State possession was a quick three and out as the Texas rush blistered Shapen, and Texas got the ball back on its own 39 yard line. Manning made some nice passes, Quintrevion Wisner had a very good 9 yard run on first down, and on third down the pass to Wisner went for 15 yards to get Texas and the red zone. Texas had a first and goal from the Mississippi State 5 yard line, but after two incomplete passes and a sack, Texas settled for a 26 yard Shipley field goal to cut the lead to 38-31.
With just over four minutes left to play, Mississippi State had the ball at their own 13 yard line, after Booth decided to try to return the kick off. The Texas defense held on third and one, and that huge play by Burk in January led to Mississippi State punning with 124 seconds left in the game. The big 57 yard may have affected the coverage, but regardless No. 21 Ryan Niblett the ball on the Texas 21 yard line. The boat filled vision is fantastic, and the great block by Marshall Landwehr cleared the path for Ryan as he ran for the touchdown to tie the football game. 38-38 with 1:47 left.
Despite having been on the field for over 70 snaps at this point, the Texas defense summoned the will to stop the Bulldogs after they picked up a couple of first downs. The Mississippi State punt was downed at the Texas one yard line, and I admit, I allowed some negative ways and worried about a safety to lose the game. But arch got the ball back to the 1 yard line as time expired.
Texas got the ball first and overtime, and Arch Manning ran for 13 yards on first down to the Mississippi State 12 yard line. But Manning took a wicked hit and left the game, dazed and confused. Caldwell in. Quintrevion Wisner went right up the middle for 7 yards to get to the 5 yard line. An offensive line penalty backed us up 5 yards, but on second eight Matthew Caldwell made a perfect loft pass to Emmett Mosley V in the end zone for what would be ruled a touchdown after review. An extraordinary series that saw the man who saved the season, go down with an injury, and his backup come in and complete the come back with a perfect pass and almost better catch by Mosley
Texas, of course had to play defense, and this time they shut down Shapen. Three incomplete passes, good pressure from Colin Simmons. On fourth and 10, Mississippi State got called for two false starts, pushing the Bulldogs back to the Texas 35 yard line. On fourth and 20, the Texas defense swarmed and Burke sacked Blake Shapen for a 31 yard loss, forcing a fumble that was recovered by January to end the game and seal the win and one of the better comebacks we have seen the Texas Longhorns make in a long time.
Arch Manning may have had some early struggles, but he was great in leading the comeback. 29/46 for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown (his rushing yards are skewed because of all the sacks). His QBR was 143.4, and his QBR was 57.1
Texas overcame 9 penalties for 61 yards and a night where they were just 8/20 on third downs. The just didn’t quit. Texas overcame a 3 score deficit in the fourth quarter twice. Sarkisian is most excellent at Coach-Speak, but this truly was a culture win. How that culture win translates to Saturday November 1 will define the 2025 season.
It took overtime, but Texas did make it Sarkville instead of Starkville.
Accolades
SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Week – Anthony Hill, Jr. Great highlights
SEC Co-Defensive Lineman of the Week – Ethan Burke
Manning Award Star of the Week – Archibald Charles Manning
Bednarik Award Player of the Week – Anthony Hill, Jr.
Cheez-It Crunch Time Play of the Week – Niblett’s touchdown punt return, of course.
Thorpe Award: Michael Taaffe named a semifinalist.
Highlights from ESPN – about 22 minutes
Condensed game, from Justin Nash (55 minutes).
https://x.com/NashTalksTexas/status/1982244101480132702
Week Ten in the Southeastern Conference
No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (6-1, 4-1) and Florida Gators (3-4, 2-2), 2:30 p.m. on ABC from the middle of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Bulldogs favored by 7.5, over/under is 50.5. Georgia to win and cover. BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Georgia | Florida | .879 | 17.0 | 34.5 | 17.5 | 52.0 |
Parker Fleming’s Advanced Stats Preview:
No. 18 Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2) at No. 14 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2), 6:30 p.m. on ABC from Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. Tennessee favored by 2.5, over/under is 55.5. Volunteers to win and cover. BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Volunteers | Land Thieves | .546 | 1.6 | 26.1 | 24.5 | 50.6 |
Mississippi State (4-4, 0-4) at Arkansas (2-6, 0-4), 3:00 p.m. on the SEC Network from FayetteNam. Arkansas favored by 5.5, over/under is 65.5. Someone will be out of last place by Saturday night (same thing I said last week, and it didn’t work out well for the pigs). Hope it is Bulldogs.
South Carolina (3-5, 1-5) at No. 7 Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. Should be a glorious afternoon in The Grove. Rebels favored by 12.5, over/under is 55.5. Ole Miss for the win. Not sure about the line. Hotty Toddy!
BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Ole Miss | South Carolina | .793 | 12.1 | 32.0 | 19.9 | 51.9 |
Kentucky (2-5, 0-5) at Auburn (4-4, 1-4), 6:30 p.m. on the SEC Network from Jordan-Hare Stadium in Lee County. Lexington. Tigers favored by 11.5, over/under 44.5. Auburn with the win, Wildcats cover.
Week Ten: Service Academies
Army (3-4) at Air Force (2-5), 11:00 a.m. on CBS from Falcon Stadium. Kudos to CBS for putting this game on. Army favored by 1.5, over/under is 49.5. BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Army | Air Force | .668 | 6.3 | 34.3 | 28.0 | 62.3 |
Navy (7-0, 5-0) at North Texas (7-1, 3-1), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN2. The Midshipmen have a monumental task, going up against one of the hottest offenses and quarterbacks in the country with Drew Mestemaker. A couple of interesting stat comparisons:
| Navy Rushing Offense – 318.1 ypg (No. 1) | 190.8 ypg – UNT Rushing Defense (120th) |
| Navy Passing Defense– 256.6 ypg (117th) | 317.6 ypg – UNT Passing Offense (6th) |
Mean Green favored by 14.5, over/under is 62.5. BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| North Texas | Navy | .635 | 5.0 | 33.8 | 28.8 | 62.7 |
Top 25 – Week Ten
Friday
No. 25 Memphis (7-1) at Rice (4-4), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN2 from Rice Stadium in Houston. Tigers favored by 13.5, over/under is 48.5. Tigers to win and cover.
Saturday
Penn State (3-4, 0-4) at No. 1 Ohio State, 11:00 a.m. on FOX. Before the 2025 season began, Penn State was No. 2 and Ohio State was No. 3 in the AP Top 25, they were flip-flopped in the Coaches Poll. Two months later, the Nittany Lions haven’t won a Big Ten game and have fired their coach, James Franklin. Buckeyes are favored by 19.5, over/under is 45.5. I am sure Ohio State is going to win, but I don’t have a good feel for the spread in this one.
No. 10 Miami (FL) (6-1) at Southern Methodist University (5-3), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park. Mustangs are a good team but I can’t give them much of a chance against the Hurricanes, unfortunately. Miami favored by 9.5, over/under is 50.5. Hoping for an upset. Good luck to the Ponies.
West Virginia (2-6, 0-5) at No. 22 Houston (7-1, 4-1), 11:00 a.m. on FS1 from John M. O’Quinn Field. Mountaineers are really struggling. Cougars, are having an exceptional year, although I think it is going to be tough for them to get to the Big 12 championship game. Houston favored by 12.5, over/under is 48.5.
No. 16 Louisville (6-1) at Virginia Tech (3-5), 2:00 p.m. on The CW Network from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg. Cardinals favored by 10.5, over/under is 52.5. Go Hokies.
No. 2 Indiana (9-0) at Maryland (4-3), 2:30 p.m. on CBS from College Park. Maryland might be a speed bump for the Hoosiers, but it will sound about the same as Indiana runs over the Terrapins. Indiana favored by 21.5, over/under is 50.5. Hoosiers to win and cover.
No. 12 Notre Dame (5-2) at Boston College (1-7), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN from Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Fighting Irish favored by 28.5, over/under is 55.5. Notre Dame to win. Big games for Carr and Love.
No. 13 Texas Tech (7-1) at Kansas State (4-4), 2:30 p.m. on FOX from bill Synder Family Stadium in Manhattan. The Wildcats are a hot team, and I feel like they have a shot at the Sand Aggies. Tech favored by 7.5, over/under is 51.5. BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas Tech | Kansas State | .672 | 6.5 | 24.4 | 17.9 | 42.3 |
No. 15 Virginia (7-1, 4-0) at California (5-3, 2-2), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN from California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. The Cavaliers are favored by just 5.5 over the Golden Bears; over/under is 52.5. Hoos to win. If California wears those uniforms they had on last week, UVA will cover too. BCF Projection:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Virginia | California | .706 | 7.9 | 29.7 | 21.8 | 51.5 |
Purdue (2-6, 0-5) at No. 21 Michigan (6-2, 4-1), 6:00 p.m. on BTN from The Big House in Ann Arbor. Wolverines favored by 21.5, over/under is 48.5. Big Blue to win and cover.
No. 8 Georgia Tech (8-0, 5-0) at NC State (4-4, 1-3), 6:30 p.m. on ESPN2 from Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh. Lot of eyes on this one, despite the records. I feel pretty good about the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech favored by 5.5, over is 58.5. Ramblin’ Wreck to win and cover.
No. 23 Southern Cal (5-2, 3-1) at Nebraska (6-2, 3-2), 6:30 p.m. on NBC from Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. Trojans favored by 4.5, over/under is 59.5. The line has been dropping. An upset of Lincoln in Lincoln?
No. 17 Cincinnati (7-1, 5-0) at No. 24 Utah (6-2, 3-2), 9:15 p.m. on ESPN from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. This will be good to watch after the Land Thieves lose in Knoxville. Utes favored by 10.5, over/under is 54.5.
Other Games of Interest – Week Ten
Tuesday night, James Madison went to San Marcos. The Dukes punished the Bobcats 52-20. An optimistic season for Texas State has not been so good, as the kitties are still looking for a win in the Sun Belt. Meanwhile, UTEP traveled 1,434 miles to Kennesaw, Georgia (a straight shot on I-20), but the upstart Owls stayed undefeated in CUSA with a 33-20 win over the Miners.
Thursday night, UTSA put a surprise beatdown on the Tulane Green Wave, 45-26. 523 yards of offense for UTSA. The Roadrunners were 5.5 home underdogs. Quite a win for Coach Jeff Traylor.
Friday
The Los Angeles Dodgers look to get to Game 7 in Toronto. The Blue Jays get two chances at home win the World Series. LA sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the bump, who pitched a complete game, 4 hit, 1 run, with 8 strikeouts last Saturday in Game 2. Kevin Gausman will toe the rubber for Toronto, hoping to avenge that Game 2 loss and give the Blue Jays their first World Series title since Joe Carter hit the 3-run walk-off tater to put the Phillies away in Game 6 in 1993.
Saturday
Duke (4-3) at Clemson (3-4), 11:00 a.m. on the ACC Network. Only of interest for anyone in the vicinity, because you can get a ticket to this one for less than $20. Tigers favored by 3.5, over/under is 54.5.
Arizona State (5-3) at Iowa State (5-3), 12:00 noon on TNT From Jack Trice Stadium in Ames. Cyclones favored by 7.5, over/under is 50.5.
Pittsburgh (6-2) at Stanford (3-5), 2:30 p.m. on the ACC Network from the Farm in Santa Clara County. The Cardinal of Leland Stanford Junior University are 14.5 point home dogs.
Arizona (4-3, 1-3) at Colorado (3-5, 1-4), 6:00 p.m. on FS1 from Folsom Field in Boulder. Wildcats favored by 3.5, over/under is 52.5.
Washington State (4-4, 0-0 Pac-12) at Oregon State (1-7, 0-0 Pac-12), 6:30 p.m. on CBS from Reser Stadium in Corvalis. Cougars favored by 4.5 over the Beavers. Good luck to Maalik Murphy. The winner has a clear path to the Pac-12 title. The Conference of Champions!
Wake Forest (5-2, 2-2) at Florida State (3-4, 0-4), 6:30 p.m. on the ACC Network from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. Seminoles favored by 10.5!
The UTRGV Vaqueros are on the road to Nacogdoches for a game with Stephen F. Austin behind the Pine Curtain. The Lumberjacks are 6-2 and tied for first in the Southland at 4-0 with Lamar and SE Louisiana. 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+ from Homer Bryce Stadium.
Bill gives Texas a 57% chance of winning and predicts a point margin of 2.8.
Juan Heisman Tailgate
The Juan Heisman Tailgate Crew will be back in Lot 38 with breakfast tacos and bloody marys and breakfast beers. A good way to start the day. A low-key tailgate with the early kick, but lots of friends and family coming. Should be a great morning at Juan Heisman. Plenty of Tito’s Handmade Vodka to get the day started.
Texas Volleyball
The No. 2 Longhorns are now 18-0, after last week’s wins over Ole Miss (3-1) and Louisiana State (sweep). This Friday night the Longhorns have a huge game in College Station with No. 8 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, 6:30 p.m. on the SEC Network. The Horns are back home Sunday for a 12:00 noon match with the Kentucky Wildcats at Gregory Gym, ESPN.
Scott Wilson
When the Austin Horns Fan Dispatch went out early Friday morning, we did not yet have news of Scott’s passing. He was a great Longhorn. RIP Scott.
Week Nine in the Southeastern Conference
No. 8 Ole Miss 34, No. 13 Oklahoma 26. The Land Thieves took a 26-25 lead to the fourth quarter by the Rebels got a touchdown (missed 2 point conversion) and field goal to escape Norman with a very big win. Trinidad Chambliss was 24/44 for 315 yards and a TD, and rand for 53 yards. Mateer was 17/31 for 223 yards and a score, ran for 17. The analytics said OU, I said Ole Miss. ✔️
Auburn 32, Arkansas 24. Another home team blowing a lead, as Auburn scored 17 unanswered in the fourth quarter. Jackson Arnold got benched. The Tigers rushed for 230 yards, and the Hogs eked out 63 yards.
No. 4 Alabama 29, South Carolina 22. There’s a theme here: the Gamecocks led 15-14 after three quarters. I missed big on this one.
No. 15 Missouri 10, No. 10 Vanderbilt 17. See above.
No. 3 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 49, No. 20. Louisiana State 25. The Aggies are pretty dang good, and the Bayou Bengals are not. Marcel Reed was 12/21 for 202 yards and 2 TDs (but 2 picks), and he was the leading rusher for the ags with 108 yards on 13 carries with 2 touchdowns (8.3 yards per carry!).
No. 17 Tennessee 56, Kentucky 34. Guess the Wildcats had a hangover from the close game with the Longhorns. Happens in bourbon country.
Week Nine: Service Academies
Florida Atlantic (3-4) at Navy stays undefeated with a 42-32 win over Florida Atlantic. Wild 40 point fourth quarter – Owls scored 19 and the Midshipmen 21. Navy rushed for 397 yards – QB Blake Horvath 21 for 174 & 4 touchdowns and Brandon Chatman 10 for 141.
Top 25 – Week Nine
No. 2 Indiana crushed UCLA 56-6. The feel good story out of Westwood was snuffed in Bloomington. I had the Hoosiers winning and the Bruins to cover, and I missed by over 3 touchdowns. Indiana will be playing games in January, maybe in all of the games.
The Rambling Wreck from Georgia Tech keeps on rolling. Syracuse (3-4) at No. 7 Yellow Jackets take down Syracuse 41-16. Haynes King with 304 yards passing and 3 touchdowns plus 91 on the ground (7.6 ypc) and 2 scores, a QBR of 93.2. Good for him. ✔️
No. 16 Virginia beat North Carolina in overtime 17-16 after Bill Belichick went for 2 and the Hoos held. Cavaliers off to their best start since 2007.
Memphis with a big 34-31 win over No. 18 South Florida.
No. 11 Brigham Young rallied big in the second half to beat Iowa State 41-27. It was 24-17 Cyclones at half. Cougar QB Bear Bachmeier 25/35 for 307, 2 TDs passing and led BYU in rushing with 49 yards and a score. Brigham Young defense had 3 interceptions and a fumble recovery.
Washington didn’t just cover against No. 23 Illinois, the Huskies kicked Illini butt, 42-25.
No. 14 Texas Technical rolled in Stillwater, 42-0. Okie Aggies no match for the Sand Aggies, as Tech covers a 36.5 point line on the road. Missed on that one. X
No. 21 Cincinnati 41-20 over Baylor. The Bearcat defense shut down Sawyer Robertson (18/26, 137 yards, 2 scores plus one on the ground).
No. 6 Oregon was favored by 31.5 at home over a weak Wisconsin team. I figured that line was about right. Badgers fought hard in Autzen. Oregon 21, Wisconsin 7. I was wrong.
No. 9 Miami (FL) dominated Stanford 42-7, covering the 30.5 point line.
No. 19 Louisville 38, Boston College 24. Cardinals were favored by “Louisville to win, BC to cover.” ✔️
Hail to the Victors. No. 25 Michigan 31. Michigan State 20. Wolverines were favored by 14.5. “Michigan to win, State to cover.” ✔️
Houston goes on the road and upsets No. 24 Arizona State 24-16. Missed that one too.
Other Games of Interest – Week Nine
Friday
North Texas lit up UNC Charlotte 54-20, as the Mean Green quarterback, Drew Mestemaker, finally got the national press he deserved. Mestemaker was 37/49 for 608 yards and 4 touchdowns. 16 of those passes when for 15 yards or more. AP National Player of the Week. A walk-on at North Texas who was not recruited. Great story. A lot of credit to his coach, Eric Morris. UNT was favored by 25.5 points. “Elf & the Green to win and cover.” ✔️
Virginia Tech and California go to double overtime and the Hokies get the win, 42-34. Good game. Had Cal winning and covering. X
Saturday
Southern Methodist University 12. Wake Forest 13. Crazy. Mustangs were 2.5 point favorites, over/under was 53.5. Had the Ponies to win and cover. X
Northwestern 21, at Nebraska 28. Cornhuskers were favored by 7.5, and I had Big Red to win and cover. X
Kansas State dominated Kansas 42-17. Jayhawks were favored by 3.5. Wildcats are hot.
UConn (5-2) at Rice wins! Rice Wins! Owls 37, UConn 34.
Miami 26, Western Michigan 17. The Redhawks are 4-0 in the MAC and playing good ball.
Texas Christian 23, West Virginia 17. Horned Frogs were favored by 17.. “Toads to win, ‘Eers to cover.” ✔️
Utah pulverized Colorado 53-7. It was 43-0 at half.
UTRGV Vaqueros had a 35-0 lead at half and finished off the Incarnate Word Cardinals 56-28. UTRGV quarterback Eddie Lee Marburger was 26/36 for 440 yards and 6 touchdowns and he ran for another.
Washington & Lee University
W&L with a 20-17 overtime win over Bridgewater. The General rushed for 232 yards and 2 scores, and Ty Collins threw for 228 yards and a touchdown, the gamewinner in overtime to Fidel Small on the first snap of OT. The Generals are 4-1 in conference and tied for second with Shenandoah and Hampden-Sydney, but Randolph-Macon may have the ODAC wrapped up at 6-0. However, their remaining 2 games are with Shenandoah and the Hampsters.
The Generals are on the road to Danville this weekend. A 4:00 p.m. game with Averett University. The Cougars are winless this year, including ODAC losses of 77-20 to Randolph-Macon and 67-7 to Hampden-Sydney. No line for the game Saturday.
The Polls
AP Top 25 & the Coaches:
ESPN’s FPI
2025 College Football Power Index – ESPN
Bill Connelly’s SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing.
Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami (FL), Brigham Young, Oregon, Ole Miss. Vanderbilt is No. 12. Texas at No. 19.
PFF
PFF has The Ohio State University No. 1, followed by Indiana, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, Alabama, Georgia, Brigham Young, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, Oregon. Texas is up to No. 14. Notre Dame is 13 and Virginia is 15. The Family teams are having a nice season!
Kelley Ford Ratings
Ford’s Defensive Ratings
The Texas defense better be what they have been all season before the first three quarters in Starkville.
Ford’s Offensive Ratings. Depressing…
Max Olson’s Defensive Stop Rates
Vanderbilt is ranked No. 70, with 62% and a Points/Drive of 2.07. Nice edge here for the Horns.
Parker Fleming (the college football sabrematician, not my son-in-law), Net Quality Drive Rate and Net Points Per Quality Drive. Texas is kind of mushed there below Michigan and Arizona.
PFF Grades
Bat Conservation International
I was introduced to Merlin Tuttle and his work to save bats in the early 1980’s Austin was just beginning to understand and appreciate our bat colonies. Over 40 years later, we are much smarter, and efforts to preserve these critical species are worldwide. Their importance in our ecosystems is impossible to understate, from mosquito and other insect control to their role in pollination. Of great importance to me, most agave plants are pollinated by bats. No bats, no tequila.
Bat Conservation International / Ending Bat Extinctions Worldwide
Music
Willie Nelson
Up Against the Wall Redneck Mother (from the ACL Pilot in October 1974)
Blue Eyes Crying in the Rain (ACL 1976)
Nothing I Can Do About it Now (ACL 1990)
Guy Forsyth
Hometown Boy
Ray Benson & Asleep at the Wheel
Route 66
Miles and Miles of Texas (Live from ACL)
Gary Clark, Jr.
When My Train Pulls In
Hayes Carll
Bad Liver and a Broken Heart
Jim Nicar
An extra dose of Nicar this week.
“It’s Texas vs. Vanderbilt this Saturday!🤘
Did you know? The first-ever U.T. Austin faculty meeting was held in May 1883 at Vanderbilt University. Most of the new professors came from Virginia, Tennessee, and Kentucky, and VU in Nashville was more convenient than going to Austin.”
From Jim’s October 28, 2025, post on X.
For those who don’t know, Jim maintains a superb website – The UT History Corner. An extraordinary source of information about our beloved University of Texas. So, I went there and, as expected, a full article about the start of U.T. and the above-referenced meeting, and the men in the photograph.
Above, from left: John Mallet, professor of physics and chemistry; Leslie Waggener, professor of English language, history, and literature; Robert Dabney, professor of mental and moral philosophy and political science; Robert Gould, professor of law; Oran Roberts, professor of law; Henri Tallichet, professor of modern languages; Milton Humphreys, professor of ancient languages; and William LeRoy Broun, professor of mathematics.
A little more on the genesis of the University from Jim:
Ashbel Smith, a 76-year-old physician from Galveston (photo at left), was selected to chair the University’s inaugural Board of Regents, and was entrusted with the Herculean task of creating the new university. A graduate of Yale, Smith was a secretary of state for the Republic of Texas and served multiple terms in the state legislature.
In the final years of his life, Smith’s passion was the University of Texas, and his top priority was to recruit the best faculty possible. Smith traveled extensively, visited colleges throughout the country, and spent many late nights devoted to University-related correspondence. His letters, scribbled by candlelight, are now carefully preserved in the University archives.
After nearly two years of effort, Smith and the Board of Regents selected eight professors. Six of them formed the Academic Department, and most were assigned to teach multiple disciplines: English, literature, and history; chemistry and physics; mathematics; metaphysics, logic, and ethics; ancient Greek and Latin; and Spanish, French and German. The remaining two faculty members composed the Law Department. Salaries averaged $2,500 per year, a generous sum in the 1880s.
Most of the professors hailed from Virginia, Tennessee, and Kentucky. To save on travel expenses, Smith convened the first faculty meeting in May 1883 not in Austin, but at Vanderbilt University in Nashville.
Picture of the Week
© Timothy C. Taylor, Sr. 2025. All Rights Reserved (as to original material).
On X: @tctayloratx
On LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/tctatx
On Instagram: @tctayloratx
On Facebook: www.Facebook.com/Tim.C.Taylor
and: www.Facebook.com/Juan.Heisman
You can contact me by mail:
Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371