No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3/4 Texas Longhorns
The biggest game on the schedule this weekend, the biggest game so far this season in college football, and one which has college football playoff and national championship implications. As Coach Sarkisian and his players rightfully say, you come to The University of Texas to play in games like this. The sixth meeting between the Buckeyes and Longhorns, a series which Ohio State (painfully) leads 3-2. However, one of those Texas wins (2005 in Columbus) was the springboard to a national championship run that ended in confetti in the Rose Bowl and Mack Brown and Vince Young holding a crystal football. The other two most recent games are the subject of some observations below that, I think, provide an interesting look at the new world of college football.
The Longhorns and the Buckeyes kick-off Saturday evening at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium at 6:30 p.m. The game will be broadcast on ABC, with the A-Team from ESPN: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit in the booth and Holly Rowe and Laura Rutledge on the field. The game can be heard around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns Craig Way, joined by Roger Wallace in the booth and by Will Matthews on the sidelines. Listen in Austin on the Flagship, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM. Listen in San Angelo and the Concho Valley with Mr. McLaughlin on KKSA 1260 AM. Dr. Rubén Pizarro-Silva and Jesus Mendoza with the call in Spanish on certain Longhorn Radio Network affiliates and streaming on the Texas Longhorn App and online. For those of you with terribly misplaced priorities who might not be in Austin this weekend, SiriusXM Channel 84 or stream through the Texas Longhorn app or mobile player https://texas.leanplayer.com/.
It is going to be quite a day on The Forty Acres. College Gameday goes live at 8:00 a.m. Longhorn City Limits starts at 3:00 with one of my favorite Austin bands, Shinyribs, led by the inimitable Kevin Russell. Bevo Parade at 3:30. Robert Earl Keen on the LCL stage at 4:30. The Game. And for those who can’t stop – Silent Disco on the LBJ lawn after the game. Can’t wait.
Texas was a 1.5 point favorite Wednesday night, and the money lines were Texas minus 118 and Ohio State minus 102. Early Friday morning, no movement, which surprises me. Going to be a close game.
Photo by Sara Diggins, AAS
Texas State Bobcats State 7, Texas Longhorns 59
The Longhorns opened the season the way they are supposed to, by dominating an inferior opponent. Nice to see. A solid game for Arch Manning, who played two series into the third quarter, and he was 20 of 27 for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns (one ill-advised pass was picked). Hollywood Smothers showed some really nice footwork and agility, and Rasheem Biles picked up SEC co-defensive player of the week honors after his 5 tackles, half a TFL, a forced fumble (wicked good), and an interception. Recap of the game below, but my regular social media favorites, most importantly Los Longhorns en Español!
Monday Morning Highlights, on X and Instagram.
https://x.com/texasfootball/status/2096946188847022464?s=43%3c/a
¡ Los Longhorns en Español !
https://x.com/texasfootball/status/2097786406680625558?s=43
College Football This Weekend
Honestly, Texas and Ohio State have the stage to themselves this weekend. Outside of two other games (ironically featuring our two biggest rivals), there are no other significant matchups. I have these and a lot of other games noted below.
- 11 Oklahoma Land Thieves vs. (AP unranked) Michigan Wolverines, 11:00 a.m. on FOX from the Big House.
- Arizona State vs. No. 10 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, 11:00 a.m. on ABC.
That’s it – plenty of other football to watch, but just not great games.
College Football Last Weekend – and this Week
Some fun and wild games and some crazy endings, and the goings on off the field, particularly in courtrooms and in certain conference conference rooms (mainly the Southeastern Conference), were dominating headlines.
The game that ties together the on and off field headlines was Michigan’s reconstituted, last second second-chance Hail Mary to beat Western Michigan 13-12. The Mid-American Conference issued a statement, which seems reasonable. Generally respected Chris Vannini had a more favorable take, but you decide. The AP voters voted the Wolverines out of their top 25, while the coaches dropped them to No. 24.
The SEC vs. Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College situation is like the Mississippi River, moving and muddy. [I am writing this Tuesday night, and no doubt will have to update it.] The conference just wants to enforce its rules (pretty much the same issue that the Big XII sued on with Cody & the Sand Aggies). It’s a huge mess. It can be hard to understand, but I think Coach Ed Orgeron is probably explaining it perfectly here. And the SEC Shorts crew has nailed a few tiger skins to the wall in the last week or so. This one is pretty funny. What isn’t funny is the recent history of lack of institutional control in Baton Rouge. Good summary here.
Speaking of Louisiana State, the Tigers dismantled Clemson 51-10. The other two games that were particularly fun to watch were No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 24 Louisville, who traded punches in a game that ended with the Rebels winning 41-38 (one of my favorite final scores), and No. 19 Southern Methodist who beat Florida State 27-24 in the power outage delayed, unintentional old school game at Doak Walker Stadium.
2026 Longhorn Football Prospectus: Thinking Texas Football
Not too late to get Paul Wadlington’s 2026 Texas football bible. Great preview of the season, the players, and the SEC. Best $17 you will spend on college football.
2026 Longhorn Football Prospectus: Thinking Texas Football
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3/4 Texas Longhorns
Before I get to the game itself, some observations about the teams and their rosters. This will be the third game between Texas and Ohio State in 610 days. The CFP Semifinal in the Cotton Bowl on January 10, 2025, last year’s season opener in Columbus on August 30, 2025, and tomorrow’s game.
In the most recent NFL Draft, eleven players from Ohio State were taken, including three in the first ten: Carnell Tate (4th), Arvell Reese (5th), and Sonny Styles (7th). Texas sent six to the pros, including some key defensive pieces, Anthony Hill Jr., Trey Moore, Malik Muhammad, and Michael Taaffe. Depending on how you slice it, the Buckeye have 16 new guys on the roster from the portal, along with a slew of freshmen. Meanwhile, Sark & Co. added a whopping 23 players out of the portal.
2026 Texas has seven guys out of the 22 who started in Columbus last year: Manning, Wingo, Goosby, and Baker on offense; Simmons, Watson, and McDonald on defense. Ohio State has nine of 22: six on offense, including Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith, but like Texas just three on defense (Kenyatta Jackson Jr., Jermaine Mathews Jr., and Jaylen McClain). Admittedly, this is just guys who started the first game of the season in 2025 for their respective teams. But a nice metric. 16 out of 44. Important for both Ryan Day and Steve Sarkisian: They both had their all-star quarterbacks back, and top or top 2/3 receivers. We know in the case of Texas, quite a few guys from that offense were “released” (e.g., Quintrevion Wisner, Parker Livingstone), as Texas sought to upgrade and rebuild around Arch Manning for a run.
What intrigued me was the question – how many guys on this year’s rosters started or played in the Cotton Bowl 610 days ago? Starters count is startling: Texas has zero, and tOSU has 3 (Smith, Hinzman, and Montgomery). As for guys who played in that game on this year’s roster, Texas has 14: Manning, Wingo, Simmons, Kobe Black, Jelani McDonald, Filsaime, Niblett, Jordon Johnson-Rubell, Warren Roberson, Brandon Baker, Goosby, Spencer Shannon, Vasek, and Alex January. Ten Buckeyes who helped Ohio State knock Texas out are on their 2026 roster.
And of course, one Buckeye who played for Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl now starts for Texas, Hero Kanu.
This kind of roster turnover is the new era of college football. It is expensive. And mind-boggling. But if you watched Kiffin and his Tigers curb-stomp Dabo and his Tigers, you can see the cost of not playing by the new “rules”.
On to the teams and the game.
Let’s start with the quarterbacks, which is the most important common thread from last year’s teams. Since last year’s game was Sayin’s first start, and since it was Arch’s first year as a starter, a good place to start since both men got better as the season progressed. And both are Heisman contenders (Arch is 2nd right now behind Darian Mensah; Sayin is 6th, with Jeremiah Smith, CJ Carr, and Malachi Toney, ahead of him). I had Arch’s 2025 stats last week, and here they are lined up with Sayin’s
| Passing | Arch Manning | Julian Sayin |
| Yards per game | #31 – 243.3 | #21 – 257.9 |
| Yards | #27 – 3,163 | #10 – 3,610 |
| Attempts | #22 – 404 | #31 – 391 |
| Completions | #35 – 248 | #10 – 301 |
| Completion Percentage | #81 – 61.4% | #1 – 77.0% |
| Yards/Attempt | #40 – 7.8 | #6 – 9.2 |
| Yards/Completion | 12.75 | 11.99 |
| Touchdowns | #17 – 26 | #4 – 32 |
| Interceptions | #86 – 7 | 8 picks [not sure rank] |
| Rating | #42 – 144.92 | #2- 177.46 |
| QBR | #34 – 70.6 | #2 – 89.6 |
| Rushing | Arch Manning | Julian Sayin |
| Yards | 399 | Minus 44 |
| Carries | 92 | 42 |
| Yards per Attempt | 4.34 | Negative 1.05 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | zero |
Arch’s QBR after one game is 91.8 (ranked 10th), and Sayin’s is 97.8 (ranked 2nd). Neither quarterback really ran last week; however, we watched Manning change games with his legs last year, and that is weapon which, at least until now, Day doesn’t have in Sayin. I am going to assume that, and thus in the QB matchup, accuracy edge goes to Sayin, overall playmaking edge to Manning.
The passing edge for Ohio State is due as much to the exceptional talent Sayin is throwing to as his skills. Jeremiah Smith (No. 4, 6’4”, 222 pounds) came into 2026 as the most highly regarded wide receiver in college football, and I suspect that he will finish 2026 that way. He started with 151 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 catches last week. Everyone has heard, as you should, that in the last two games Texas has held Jeremiah to 7 catches for 46 yards and no scores. That is impressive. But we lost both games. Not necessarily because the lockdown of Smith freed up other playmakers. We lost for other reasons. I would still like to see us shut down Smith again. The rest of the WR room is dang good, of course. Brandon Innis (No. 0, 6’, 197 pounds) is a senior, was a team captain last year, and he starts at slot. Devin McCuin (No. 3, 6’, 195 pounds, senior from Jacksonville, Texas; man I love Jacksonville tomatoes) had 6 catches for 97 yards and a score last week.
Bo Jackson (No. 25, 6’, 218 pounds sophomore) had 1,090 yards and 6 touchdowns last season as a freshman, good enough for 5th in the Big Ten. He had 9 carries for 83 yards and a score last week, including a 49 yarder. Ja’Kobi Jackson (No. 24, 6’, 219 pounds 5th year, transfer from Florida) had 8 rushes for 83 yards and touchdown. Gives a whole new meaning to a balanced rushing attack. Freshman Legend Bey (No. 2, 5’10”, 195 pounds, Forney, Texas) was a dual threat quarterback for North Forney, and his athleticism will get him on the field.
Tight ends Nate Roberts and Mason Williams provide good targets and good blocking. They do what they are supposed to do, well.
The Ohio State offensive line is big, experienced, and good. Just as expected from a Ryan Day team that competes every year for championships.
Left Tackle: Ian Moore (Starter), Carter Lowe (Backup)
Left Guard: Luke Montgomery (Starter), Jake Cook (Backup)
Center: Carson Hinzman (Starter, and leader on this team), Josh Padilla (Backup)
Right Guard: Austin Siereveld (Starter), Gabe Van Sickle (Backup)
Right Tackle: Phillip Daniels (Starter), Deontae Armstrong
Defensively, the Buckeyes have an excellent secondary, led by safety Jaylen McClain (No. 8, 6’0”, 203 pounds, junior), a returning starter who was outstanding last season, with 53 tackles and, according to PFF, he allowed only 16 completions for 94 yards on 28 targets. Earl Little, Jr. at the other safety position. Corners Devin Sanches and Jermaine Mathews, Jr., backed up by Dominck Kelly and Cam Calhoun. An outstanding, talented room, coached by one of the best, and probably one of the more elite DB corps in the country. Arch & Company will have to play their very best.
Payton Pierce (No. 26, 6’1”, 232 pound junior from Lucas, Texas) is the centerpiece of the linebacking corps at Mike. He had 43 tackles in only 263 defensive snaps as the No. 3 LB last season. He is team captain this year (with the most votes on the team), a physical, old-school middle linebacker. Christian Alliegro (No. 14, 6’4”, 245 pounds, senior, Darien, Connecticut), a Wisconsin transfer, starts. TJ Alford and Riley Pettijohn will rotate in.
The defensive line is very good, and like the Longhorns, a mix of team veterans and transfers. Inside, Eddrick Houston (No. 96, 6’3”, 304 pounds, junior, Atlanta, Georgia) is a former five-star with considerable upside, and transfers James Smith (Alabama) and John Walker (UCF) give them size and depth. Kenyatta Jackson Jr. (No. 2, 6’6”, 263 pounds, fifth-year) is the most established edge player and probably their best defensive lineman. At the other edge, Zion Grady, Beau Atkinson, and Alabama transfer Qua Russaw are all in the rotation (like Texas, Patricia and his staff like to rotate a lot of bodies, which of course both teams will be doing in the heat tomorrow night).
So, I am still trying to get in the writing groove, and writer’s blocks (and my day job) have not been accretive to my AHFD productivity. I think it will get better when I start doing my weekly stats. I usually do that on Monday night, and looking at each team’s stats, and at individual’s players, gets my brain oriented for organizing my thoughts about the teams and game.
Here is the 2026 statistical comparison from the Texas Game Notes. Interesting but not informative.
A stat that supports my point: Texas is tied for 13th in scoring offense, with 59 points per game. North Texas finished the 2025 season ranked at the top, with 45.1 ppg. Too early in the season and non-competitive games do not result in stats suitable for derivative deductive analysis.
Josh Pate’s preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HMd-kbDLiU
CBS Sports College Football Preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twR3U4eDdTI
Joel Klatt: https://youtu.be/ruL6bEGcGLY?si=AlJpFubr2PYAth-W&t=557
Official Game Notes from The University:
02 OSU – University of Texas Athletics
2026 Game Projections — BCF Toys
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Ohio State | Texas | .684 | 7.0 | 28.3 | 21.3 | 49.6 |
TCT Thoughts
So, what I have to go on is what I saw from the Longhorns against Texas State, and what I saw from the highlights and stats from Ohio State’s win over Ball State. And I remind myself that neither Steve Sarkisian nor Ryan Day showed a lot, at least of their offenses. Both teams just went out and pounded their respective opponents.
That’s a good place to start: last week, the offenses went out and put up big yards (516 for Texas, 671 for tOSU) and points (59 for Texas, 56 for tOSU). But they were playing bad defenses, and this week they will be playing very, very good defenses.
Bo and Ja’Kobi are a two-headed Jackson monster in the backfield. That worries me the most because we didn’t look great against Texas State. Bobcats rushed for 161 yards (4 ypa)
Texas offense had 11 tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage. That is not good, especially given who we were playing. Our run game was just not very consistently good against Texas State. 156 yards total. That has to be turned around, the offensive line has to be better, and we have to find success running the ball. It won’t be easy, because Matt Patricia, the Ohio State defensive coordinator, is one of the best.
I do believe our passing attack can find success, but that success depends on having a decent rush game. Our offensive line did give good protection last week, but this Buckeye defense is a whole different level.
Our defense is going to be the difference maker. I think Coach Boom’s defense is going to look different and much better than last Saturday, and it will be a whole lot better than last season’s PK BBDB defense.
On offense, Arch is more mature, has a better offensive line, and has an incredible array of wide receivers and tight ends and, importantly, running backs to target.
I think both teams will have a few explosive plays. I think each team will have one big play. Most likely a deep pass, most likely to Jeremiah Smith for the Buckeyes, but for Texas either Cam Coleman or Ryan Wingo.
My keys to the game: Texas has to display the same discipline it did last week which resulted in only 4 penalties, a huge improvement over last year. The Longhorns need to win the turnover battle, preferably by not committing any. The defense has to get to Julian Sayin. He is a gifted passer, and the best way to keep him from completing his passes (which he does at a spectacular percentage rate) is to not let him get the pass off. Put him on the turf. Need a big game from Collin Simmons. We will see if Mr. Biles is as good as we think he is.
Offensively, Arch Manning has to play up to all the expectations. World stage, critical game, get it done Arch. For him to do it, line has to block better on the run, running backs have to get yards. Texas cannot afford to be in third and long against this talented Matt Patricia-coached defense. That will not work.
TCT Predicts: Texas 31, Ohio State 27
Texas Heat
Thanks for all the positive feedback. I think we all share concerns about the heat and the danger, and it certainly took its toll. The University and CDC’s team and Austin-Travis County EMS did a great job on Saturday. Sadly, it didn’t go as well in Iowa, as a young man in the Hawkeye band passed away this week after suffering heat stroke that led to cardiac arrest in the heat at Kinnick Stadium.
Forecast for kickoff this Saturday is 102 degrees, even hotter, but at least most fans will not be in the sun. Can’t and will not complain about the start time! Hydrate. (I use the alternative method, 1 beer, 1 water, 1 beer, 1 water).
Texas Longhorns 59, Texas State 7
For a season opener, that went about as well as we could have hoped. The Longhorns scored on eight of nine offensive possessions, rolled up 516 yards, converted 11 of 15 third downs, and forced three turnovers. Texas led 14-0 after the first quarter, 28-7 at halftime, and put the game completely away with 21 unanswered points in the third quarter.
Arch Manning looked great, completing 20 of 27 passes for 305 yards and four touchdowns, with the one bad interception. His footwork was better, his accuracy was better, and his vision seemed better. Manning spread the ball among eight receivers, but Ryan Wingo and transfer Cam Coleman were the stars. Wingo caught seven passes for 121 yards and a touchdown, while Coleman caught three for 70 yards and two touchdowns in his Texas debut. Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown looked good, but it was Hollywood who provided an early spark with a 45-yard run on Texas’s first offensive play and finished with 70 yards rushing on ten carries while adding two touchdown receptions. Brown scored twice on the ground.
The defense forced punts on the first two Texas State possessions, the Bobcats missed a field goal on their third, and the D surrendered up a touchdown on the fourth. 28-7 at half, but that would be it for the Texas State offense. The second half was great defense. Texas States offensive possessions: fumble, interception, missed field goal, turnover on downs. Pretty good, not too bad.
The defense produced the game’s most spectacular play. Rasheem Biles forced a second-quarter fumble with a wicked punch that Graceson Littleton scooped up and returned 59 yards for a touchdown, giving Texas a 28-0 lead. Biles later added an interception, while Maraad Watson produced another turnover with a strip-sack of Brad Jackson. Texas State managed 349 yards but scored only once, and Texas recorded eight tackles for loss. Jelani McDonald led the Longhorns with eight tackles.
KJ Lacey replaced Manning and completed six of seven passes for 55 yards, and James Simon added a late touchdown as Texas emptied the bench.
Some concerns on my part about the run game (we should have been much better). Raleek Brown netted 34 yards on 11 carries (grossed 43). Have to do better there.
I am not too worried about Texas State’s passing numbers, because as I noted last week, the Bobcats have a great offensive, pass-oriented coach in Kinne, and experienced and good quarterback, and two darn good receivers.
Arch was 20/27, 305 yards, 4 TDs, 1 pick, 1 sack. KJ Lacey was 6/77, 55 yards.
Wingo 7 catches, 121 yards, 1 TD. Cam Coleman had only 3 catches, but 2 were touchdowns and he had 70 yards. I’m excited about our tight ends.
One little note: I think our placekicker, Gianni Spetic. He may decide the game against the Buckeyes.
Overall, an A-.
Photo by Aaron Martinez, AAS
Requiescat in pace Bob McKay
Bob McKay passed away on Thursday. National Champion, College Football Hall of Fame, first team All-American.
Thanks to Ed Small, who first invited me to some gatherings for Longhorns from the 1960’s, I got to meet a lot of guys who were my heroes as a little boy who loved the Longhorns. Ed was also my conduit to Bill Hall, who was one of the forces in getting “Darrell’s Boys” together many years ago. One of those was Bob McKay, one of the best to ever wear the Burnt Orange, and one of the very best to do it on the offensive line. The famous guys lined up in the wishbone made the headlines (Steve Worster, Chris Gilbert, Ted Koy, Jim Bertelsen, and of course the immortal James Street), but McKay anchored the line that executed so exquisitely and opened so many holes. I was very fortunate to meet Bob McKay. We had an incredible lunch at Headliners Club with guys from the 1969 team and Bill Little, which is where the picture below was taken. Ted Koy, Bill Little, Bob McKay, Randy Peschel, and Bill Hall. More on this when I have more time.
ESPN Football Power Index
What my snip above doesn’t show is the projected win totals and percentages for playoffs etc. That is interesting too. I noted Texas above. Here is the link for more fun:
2026 College Football Power Index – ESPN
Friday
No. 23 Missouri (1-0) at Kansas (1-0), 7:00 p.m. on FOX from David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence. The Border War, and one of the better rivalries in the Midwest, drawing the interest of hundreds. This is the 122nd meeting in a series that began in 1891, and Missouri leads 57-55-9. Tigers favored by 5.5, over/under is 50.5. Mizzou to win, but Rock Chalk to cover.
Saturday
Arizona State (1-0) at No. Texas Agricultural & Mechanical (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on ABC from Kyle Field. We will definitely have this game on at Juan Heisman The Sun Devils and Aggies both opened with easy wins, and we will get a better look this week to gauge the 2026 Fightin’ Texas Aggies. Aggies favored by 14.5, over/under is 50.5. A&M to win, Sun Devils to cover.
BCF Toys:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas A. and M. | Arizona State | .865 | 16.1 | 32.2 | 16.0 | 48.2 |
No. 11 Oklahoma Land Thieves (1-0) at Michigan (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on FOX from the Big House. The Land Thieves return the Wolverines’ trip to Norman last year, when Oklahoma won 24-13. Oklahoma favored by 5.5, over/under is a very low 43.5. Hard for me to trust the Wolverines after last week (clock thieves!). Land Thieves to win, Big Blue to cover.
BCF Toys:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Oklahoma | Michigan | .533 | 1.1 | 24.0 | 22.8 | 46.8 |
Western Kentucky (0-1) at No. 2 Georgia (1-0), 11:45 a.m. on the SEC Network from Sanford Stadium. The Hilltoppers opened with a 35-17 loss to Louisville. Bulldogs favored by 40.5, over/under is 55.5. That is a lot of points, but Georgia is pretty damn good, especially between the Hedges. Georgia to win and cover.
No. 12 Alabama (1-0) at Kentucky (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on ABC from Kroger Field in Lexington. The first SEC conference game of the season. Crimson Tide favored by 10, over/under is 49.5. Bama to win, Wildcats to cover.
BCF Toys:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Alabama | Kentucky | .850 | 15.2 | 31.3 | 16.1 | 47.4 |
Mississippi State (1-0) at Minnesota (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on CBS from Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. An SEC-Big Ten game but not a marquee one. Mississippi State currently favored by 1.5, over/under is 55.5. Bulldogs to win.
Delaware (1-0) at Vanderbilt (1-0), 3:15 p.m. on the SEC Network from FirstBank Stadium in Nashville. The Fightin’ Blue Hens are now FBS members, so this technically isn’t an SEC-FCS sacrificial offering. Vanderbilt favored by 21, over/under is 54.5. Dores to win, Delaware to cover.
Campbell (2-0) at Florida (1-0), 4:30 p.m. on ESPN+/SECN+ from the Swamp. The Fighting Camels have already played twice; Florida has played once. Gators favored by 49.5, over/under is 65.5. Florida wins and covers. 🐊 >> 🐪
Towson (0-2) at South Carolina (1-0), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+/SECN+ from Williams-Brice Stadium. Towson just gave up 506 rushing yards to Navy. That does not bode well for their trip to Columbia as the Gamecocks rushed for 278 against Kent State. South Carolina favored by 43.5, over/under is 54.5. Gamecocks to win and cover.
No. 18 Tennessee (1-0) at Georgia Tech (0-1), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN from Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. This looked game considerably better before Georgia Tech choked and lost 14-13 to Colorado last weekend. Volunteers favored by 12.5, over/under is 55.5. Vols to win, Rambling Wreck to cover. But I would savor a Yellow Jacket upset.
Louisiana Tech (1-0) at No. 8 Louisiana State (1-0), 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+/SECN+ from Death Valley. I thought about linking Lane Kiffin’s halftime “speech” but feared someone’s child, mother, or grandmother might accidentally overhear it. Let’s just say Lane used fewer words than Dr. Seuss did in the Cat in the Hat, and probably 25% of them were the same word, or variation thereof, that begins with F. LSU was probably the most impressive team in the country last weekend, demolishing No. 8 Clemson 51-10 and jumping to No. 8 in the AP poll. Now the Bayou Bengals get a night game at home against Louisiana Tech. LSU favored by 34.5, over/under is 55.5. Tigers to win and cover.
Southern Miss (1-0) at Auburn (1-0), 6:45 p.m. on the SEC Network from Jordan-Hare. Auburn escaped Baylor 17-16 last week, which was considerably less impressive than I expected. Southern Miss beat Alcorn State 38-7. Tigers favored by 33, over/under is 56.5. That line looks enormous after what Auburn showed last week. Auburn to win, Golden Eagles to cover.
Charlotte (0-1) at No. 9 Ole Miss (1-0), 6:45 p.m. on ESPN2 from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Going to be glorious day in The Grove, albeit hot and muggy. Ole Miss favored by 47.5, over/under is 60.5. Ole Miss to win and cover. Hotty Toddy!
Arkansas (1-0) at No. 20 Utah (1-0), 9:15 p.m. on ESPN from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. An interesting late-night SEC-Big 12 game. Another second half I will tune in. While not a big Utes fan, I can be if and when the situation calls for it. Go Utes. Utah favored by 12.5, over/under is 54.5. Utes to win, Hogs to cover.
BCF Toys:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Utah | Arkansas | .871 | 16.5 | 37.1 | 20.6 | 57.7 |
Week Two: Service Academies
South Florida (1-0) at Army (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on CBS Sports Network from Michie Stadium on the banks of the Hudson River. This is the first American Conference game of the season. Last week South Florida beat Florida International 19-9. Black Knights favored by 3.5, over/under is 47. Army to win and cover.
Navy (1-0) at Florida Atlantic (0-1), 6:30 p.m. on ESPNU from Boca Raton. The Midshipmen ran for 506 yards in their 42-15 win over Towson, led by Braxton Woodson’s 200 yards and three touchdowns. FAU’s opener was considerably less pleasant: the Owls gave up 66 points and 546 yards in a 66-21 loss at Florida. Navy favored by 5.5, over/under is 59. Navy to win and cover.
North Dakota State (2-0) at Air Force (1-0), 9:00 p.m. on FS1 from Falcon Stadium. Hoping this one is still going when I get home in a happy mood. The Bison are in in their first year as an FBS member of the Mountain West after exceptional success in the FCS. NDSU has wins over the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (33-7) and Fordham (38-0). This is the first meeting between the schools and the Bison’s first big boy conference opener. North Dakota State favored by 2.5, over/under is about 47.5. I am a Falcon fan, but have suspicion that the Bison are looking to make a statement. Taking Air Force to cover.
Top 25 – Week Two
Thursday night, Miami (FL) dismantled Florida A&M 77 to 7. The line was Hurricanes by 57.5, and the total was 63.5.
Friday
Norfolk State (0-2) at No. 25 Virginia (1-0), 6:00 p.m. on the ACC Network from Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. Cavaliers favored by 44.5, over/under is 54.5. Virginia to win. Not sure about the line. Go Hoos!
Villanova (1-0) at No. 24 Louisville (0-1), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN2 from L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Papa John’s sure rolled off the tongue better. The Cardinals are favored by 36, over/under is 56.5. Louisville should win, but I will be pulling for Nova!
Saturday
Howard (1-1) at No. 5 Indiana (1-0), 11:00 a.m. on BTN, from Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Hoosiers favored by 55.5, over/under is 64.5. Yes and Yes.
No. 16 Penn State (1-0) at Temple, 11:00 a.m. from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Our friend Arthur Johnson is still at Temple, Vice President/Debbie and Stanley Lefkowitz ’65 Director of Athletics. A title that rivals CDC’s! I will make a reasonable donation to Temple athletics if the Owls can upset the Nittany Lions.
No. 6 Oregon (1-0) at Oklahoma State (0-1), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN from Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. The Ducks survived Boise, but I fear the Elf’s Cowboys will not put up as good of a fight. Oregon favored by 23.5, over/under is 57.5. Ducks to win and cover. Sorry Eric. Hope I am wrong!
Utah State (1-0) at No. 19 Washington (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on BTN, from Husky Stadium in Seattle. Washington favored by 27.5, over/under is 55.5. Huskies win, Mormon Aggies cover.
Arizona (1-0) at No. 15 Brigham Young (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on FOX from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo. An early Big 12 conference game and one of the more interesting games buried in the afternoon schedule (opposite Ohio State-Texas, the ratings will be dismal, as they should). Cougars favored by 7.5, over/under is 47.5. Brigham Young to win, Wildcats to cover.
Rice (1-0) at No. 3 Notre Dame (1-0), 2:30 p.m. Notre Dame favored by 44.5, over/under is 55.5. Notre Dame to win and cover. Sorry Kurt and Kirk. Go Irish. 🍀
UC Davis at No. 17 Southern Methodist (1-0), 3:00 p.m. from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park. Mustangs favored by 25.5, over/under is 58.5.
Southern University at No. 22 Houston (1-0), 6:00 p.m. Houston favored by 51.5, over/under is 60.5. Houston to win, Southern to cover.
Iowa State (1-0) at No. 21 Iowa (1-0), 6:30 p.m. from Kinnick Stadium. ¡El Assico! The Cy-Hawk game, but one that might be a bit somber. Iowa favored by 14, and the total is 40.5. Hawkeyes, Cyclones to cover.
No. 13 Texas Tech (1-0) at Oregon State (0-1), 6:30 p.m. from Reser Stadium in Corvallis. Sand Aggies favored by 26.5, over/under is 53.5. Texas Tech to win, Beavers to cover.
Louisiana Lafayette (1-0) at No. 14 Southern Cal (2-0), 10:00 p.m. from the Coliseum. Another late game to either watch in a state of exuberant joy or watch in a depressed state with a bottle of reposado nearby. I’d prefer the former! Southern Cal favored by 30.5, over/under is about 60.5. Trojans to win, Ragin’ Cajuns to cover! ✌️
Week Two – Other Games of Interest
Friday
Rutgers at Boston College, 6:30 p.m. on ESPN2 from Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. The Red Bandanna Game. On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, as BC again honors Welles Crowther. There is no more poignant game on this week’s – or this season’s – schedule. The Scarlet Knights have special uniforms, with the number 37 on their helmets, honoring the 37 Rutgers alumni who died on 9/11. Both teams looking for their first win. Eagles favored by 3.5, over/under is 54.5.
Holy Cross (0-2) at Miami, 12:00 noon on ESPN+ from Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio. Redhawks are favored by 30.5, total is 49.5.
U.T. San Antonio at Texas State, 2:30 p.m. on the CW from UFCU Stadium in San Marcos. Bobcats are narrow 1.5 point home favorites. Roadrunners to win and cover. Birds up! 🤙🏼
Grambling (2-0) at Texas Christian (0-1), 7:00 p.m. on ESPN+ from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs opened their season in Dublin, dropping the Aer Lingus Classic game to North Carolina, 15-10. Ed Small led the Frogs in receiving with 9 catches for 65 yards (a long of 17). Nice start to the season for Ed. For those who don’t recall or don’t know, the Small family is pretty important to me. I joined Small, Craig & Werkenthin in May of 1987. That would be Clint Small, Jr., in the name, and his son Ed Small (played for Coach Royal) was also at the firm and quickly became one of my closest friends and mentors. We have lots of other family ties (many through Seton), and I have known Clint Small, son of Ed Small my law partner and father of Ed Small the Horned Frog, most of life. Deep ties stretching four decades now. Good luck this weekend Ed, and safe travels Clint and Allison.
Juan Heisman Tailgate
We had an exceptional turnout last Saturday despite the heat. Hunter Wilcox, who continues to be masterful as Chief of the Early Crew, was in Lot 38 before sunrise with Judd Messer, Bill Skeen, and Grant Martin. Last week went smoothly. Hoping Saturday morning is similarly positive.
This week we are (surprise!) expecting a huge crowd for the Buckeyes. JHT chicken legs and hot dogs, plus more of that fine venison sausage supplied by Gary Farmer. Plenty of cold beverages, and featuring Tito’s Handmade Vodka, back for another season as the official spirit of the Juan Heisman Tailgate. People often ask, what can I bring? Well, this week is easy – bring a bag or two of ice. We are going to go through a ton.
The Juan Heisman Tailgate Party is a private party sponsored and operated by JHT1998 L38, Inc., a Texas nonprofit corporation.
Wednesday night, we celebrated Clay McPhail’s 75th birthday at his 5280 Burger Bar & Tap. Clay and I have been friends for over 40 years, going back this days at Lakeview Café. Decades of fun at El Arroyo, some epic Steak Nights, and of course Juan Heisman Tailgate parties. Below, Shawn Clynch, Clay, and me. Happy Birthday Clay!
The Polls
Nerd Stats Update
Brian Fremeau.
FEI ratings.
Next, F+ Ratings combine Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings.
Bill Connelly’s SP+, September 8, 2026
2026 college football SP+ rankings for all 138 FBS teams – ESPN
The Ohio State University
Ohio Aggies. Founded in 1870 as Ohio Agricultural and Mechanical College. A Morrill Act of 1862 land grant university. Like our aggies, they have a school song that is all about their main rival, which is, like Texas is to Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, a much better, state flagship university. And Michigan leads that series 62-53-6.
| Academic Rankings | ||
| National | ||
| Texas | Ohio State | |
| Forbes | 46 | 72 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 30 (#7 public) | 41 (#15 public) |
| Washington Monthly | 152 | 68 |
| WSJ/College Pulse | 49 | 99 |
| Global | ||
| ARWU | 49 | 82 |
| QS | 72 | 190 |
| THE | 50 | 108 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 56 | 66 |
Famous alumni include one of my favorite athletes, Jesse Owen, and, at least for a few more years, the greatest pro golfer ever, Jack Nicklaus. Bob Knight and Dwight Yoakum. And George Steinbrenner and JD Vance.
Alumni
On the topic of alumni: Texas has over 600,000 living alumni spread around the world – 176 countries; an estimated 420,000 to 450,000 live in Texas. Ohio State also has over 600,000 alumni, covering 157 countries. A quarter million live in Ohio. I am pretty sure that outside of several possible Big Ten matchups (e.g., Indiana, Penn State, UCLA, and Michigan are bigger), this weekend is the biggest head-to-head in college football.
Week One in the Southeastern Conference
Thursday night, No. 25 Missouri beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff 54-14. The line was Missouri -54.5, and the over/under was 60.5.
Oklahoma detonated UTEP, 51-0, easily covering the 41.5 line. Remarkable, the over/under was 51.5. Mateer was 11/17 for 225 yards and 3 touchdowns.
13 Alabama took care of business with East Carolina, beating the Pirates 48-10. Crimson Tide was favored by 28.5. “Crimson Tide to win and cover.” ü
South Carolina shut out Kent State 57-0. LaNorris Sellers was 19/23 for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns; he played 1 series in the third quarter. Gamecocks were favored by 35.5 and the over/under was 53.5.
Kentucky 45-13 over Youngstown State. Kentucky was favored 22, and I had the Wildcats to win but the Penguins covering. Missed that one.
Georgia buried Tennessee State, 63-3. Georgia scored 28 in the first quarter. Gunnar Stockton was 15/16 for 202 yards and 3 touchdowns. He only played one possession in the second quarter. Dawgs were favored by 46.5. “Bulldogs to win and cover.” ü
Tennessee smashed Furman 56-9, easily covering the 47.5 point spread. .
Auburn edged Baylor 17-16 after Baylor scored with 9 seconds left and DJ Lagway’s game-tying 2 point conversion pass was completed but the Tiger defense stopped the receiver short of the goal line. Tigers were favored by 7.5 and the over/under was 59.5 (way off!). I had Auburn to win, Baylor to cover.
Arkansas 31-14 over North Alabama. Line was Pigs by 40.5.
Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, hung half a hundred on the Missouri State Bears in a 50-0 shutout. Marcel Reed was 21/30 for 233 yards and 2 scores, and he ran for 20 yards. Aggies covered and almost covered the 40.5 line and almost covered the 53.5 total.
Vanderbilt 28-9 over Austin Peay. Vandy actually trailed 5-6 after the first quarter. The Governors covered.
Louisiana State embarrassed Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers 51-10. Clemson kicked a field goal about 90 seconds into the game and LSU scored 51 unanswered. It was 31-3 at halftime. Clemson’s touchdown came with 3:13 left in the game. LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt (yes, that Sam Leavitt, from Arizona State) was a bit underwhelming in the passing game (16/28, 230 yards, 1 TD, 1 pick) but he also ran for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Line was 10 and total was 50.5, and Louisiana State covered both. Here is what BCF Toys projected:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Louisiana State | Clemson | .615 | 4.2 | 24.7 | 20.5 | 45.2 |
Mississippi State 62-13 over Louisiana Monroe. It was 41-3 at halftime. Bulldogs covered the 28.5 line and the 54.5 over/under.
Florida beat Florida Atlantic 66-21, as the Gators are covered the line (26.5) and the total (59.5).
Sunday night, No. 24 Louisville at No. 9 Ole Miss met in the Liberty Mutual Music City Kickoff, and it was one heck of a game. It was 10-6 Ole Miss at halftime, and then someone lit a fuse on both teams. 24-24 after three quarters. The Rebels’ Lucas Carneiro kicked a game-winning 48 yard field goal as time expired for a 41-38 win. Trinidad Chambliss was 21/36 for 336 yards and three touchdowns (1 interception), and he ran for 60 yards and a score. Ole Miss was favored by 6.5, and I thought they would win and cover. Half right!
Week One: Service Academies
Army rolled Bryant, 59-3, in the first game in the rebuilt Michie Stadium. The Black Knights ran for 569 yards and outgained Bryant 648-165. Zach Mundell and Cale Hellums led an Army ground game that ended up with sixteen Black Knights getting carries – 10 had at least one run over 10 yards, six over 20. Crazy. Army was favored by 36.5.
Air Force shot down and shut out Duquesne, 34-0. The Falcons ran for 431 yards (and a W&L-like passing game – 3/7 for 19 yards), controlling the game and the clock (TOP for Air Force was 40:50). The Dukes managed 107 total yards and possessed. Quarterback Liam Szarka ran for two touchdowns, Kemper Hodges added another, and Carter Cremascoli kicked field goals of 21 and 52 yards. Air Force was favored by 28.5 and covered. It was Air Force’s 20th consecutive season-opening victory, second-longest in the country behind Ohio State.
Navy completed the service-academy sweep with a 42-15 win over Towson. Quarterback Braxton Woodson rushed for a career-high 200 yards and three touchdowns, and the Midshipmen piled up 506 rushing yards. Fourteen different Navy players carried the football, and seven of them had at least one rush over 10 yards. Navy was favored by 30.5, so the Tigers did cover.
Top 25 – Week One
As previously noted, Thursday night, Idaho lost to No. 21 Utah, 66-14. The line was Utes by 35.5, and the total was 57.5. The Vandals start the season 0-2 and host the Lamar Cardinals this weekend.
Friday
No. 7 Miami (FL) felled Stanford 45-6 in a blowout on the Farm. New Cane quarterback Darian Mensah threw for 401 yards and five touchdowns in his debut, and Malachi Toney set a school record with 234 receiving yards (on 12 catches, with 3 scores). Going to quite a duo to watch, if you can stomach watching the Hurricanes.
No. 14 Southern Cal shut out Fresno State 39-0. Jayden Maiava threw for 349 yards and three touchdowns, two of them to freshman Trent Mosley. Gary Patterson’s defense showed a lot of improvement, and a lot more Trojan fans showed up.
Saturday
No. 6 Indiana 52-16 over North Texas. Josh Hoover, formerly of Texas Christian University, got his ESPN bio photo changed (although per Mark Williams he was still in purple heading into last Saturday). Don’t think that the Dispatch doesn’t wield power! Also, Hoover threw for 231 yards and four touchdowns in his Hoosier debut. Indiana was laying 40.5, however, so the Mean Green managed the cover despite losing by 36.
No. 23 Houston beat Oregon State, 33-20. Former Aggie Conner Weigman was 20/30 for 305 yards and a touchdown and ran for a score. Houston pounded the Beavers with 533 yards of offense. Oregon State made it interesting after falling behind 26-7, cutting the lead to six in the fourth quarter before Weigman put it away with a 1-yard touchdown run. Cougars were favored by 21, Beavers covered.
No. 1 Ohio State did exactly what No. 1 Ohio State was supposed to do (and what Vegas expected) to Ball State, winning 56-3. Julian Sayin threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns, and Jeremiah Smith caught two touchdown passes. Buckeyes were favored by 50.5 and the total was is 55.5. Ohio State dotted the i on both.
Boise State rode into Autzen and gave No. 2 Oregon fits, leading the Ducks 17-14 at half. Oregon went ahead 24-17, and Boise tied it at 24. After the teams traded field goals, Duck Dante Moore hit Duck Dakorien Moore for a 62-yard touchdown with 7:51 remaining for the winning score. Boise State got the football back with 2:32 left but could not pull the upset. I still laughed.
Marshall 0, Penn State 45. I understand Penn State has added a Coach Joe Paterno Exhibit that includes “Coach Paterno’s original office desk and workspace, personal artifacts and a curated timeline documenting significant moments from his more than six decades at Penn State.” I hate them.
No. 22 Iowa beat Northern Illinois 40-0. Prayers for the family of Derek Phillips.
Abilene Christian didn’t get blown out by No. 12 Texas Tech, but the Sand Aggies did win 33-10. How fitting that Tech didn’t cover the line in the first game in their newly named Galaxy Stadium in Lubbock. Unless, of course …
The official score of the Western Michigan – Michigan game was 13-12, Wolverines. The actual score was 12-6 Broncos. A Hail Mary to the officials (or someone) added a second to the clock and then Bryce Underwood managed to heave it to the endzone and JJ Buchanan caught it. My favorite tweet from the week was from the epic Super 70s Sports guy “Can I please have a Big Ten crew follow me around in my daily life and give me a do-over whenever I [screw] up? That would be helpful.” Hail to the victors. You know who you are.
No. 14 Brigham Young 63, Utah Tech 7. Spare the rod, spoil the child.
Sunday
The Apple Cup in September. Washington State fell to No. 17 Washington 24-10. Cougars covered the 23.5 line.
Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame at Lambeau Field. A rough first half for the Irish, as the led 13-10 at intermission. But they came out and played like champions, dropping a shillelagh on the Badgers in the second half. Fighting Irishwith 28 second half points to cover the 20.5 line and push over the total. So glad Peter Dean got to stay up and watch the whole game.
Monday
No. 19 Southern Methodist at Florida State turned out to one of the very best games of the long weekend, once they finally played. A 27-24 entertaining contest. It was like a throwback broadcast with all the features we have grown used to unavailable because of the electricity issues. Remarkable that the Seminoles were in the game, given that hideous Florida State passing game – Ashton Daniels was 12/23 for 125 yards and 1 touchdown. The Seminoles did manage to run for 199 yards and 2 scores, which kept it close. By contrast, Kevin Jennings was a highlight reel – 430 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Southern Methodist tacked on 155 yards on the ground, and FSU’s inability to get off the field on third down doomed the Seminoles to defeat. Florida State allowed the Ponies to convert 8 of 14, while on offense Norvell’s office was a terrible 2 of 15. Mustangs were favored by 3 and the over/under was 53.5. 👀
Week One – Other Games of Interest
U.T. San Antonio showed little hospitality to the cousins from the Valley, beating U.T. Rio Grande Valley 45-16. The Roadrunners hung 24 on the Vaqueros in the second quarter, which included a 49 yard pick 6 and 75 yard touchdown run. “UTSA to win, the Valley to cover.” The line was UTSA by 28.5. So close.
Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24. Tough loss, especially when you were favored by 13.5. I pinged Lance Morris after the game. He said Eric will right the ship. He also said it was 166 degrees on the field. Unreal.
Rice wins! Rice covers! 31-3 over Houston Christian.
UCLA 45, California 24. I did in fact enjoy a bottle of 2021 Salus. A bit young, but very smooth for its age. The premeal Negroni was on point!
Washington & Lee University
The Generals opened the 2026 campaign with a 13-7 win over Wittenberg Tigers. A scoreless first half. Wittenberg got a score in the third quarter, and W&L answered in the fourth. Marc Geffrard took the pitch from Ty Collins in OT to score on third and 5.
Senior Ty Collins was 8/16 for 92 yards, including a 45 yard completion to Carter Shallcross. Collins also had 36 yards rushing. Ryan Clemens led the Generals with 69 yards and a score. Carter Shall cross had 6 carries for 75 yards, all part of a 220 yard rushing day for W&L.
William Reid and Will Dix, Jr. led the Generals with 10 tackles each.
Washington & Lee is on the road to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania this week to play the Bullets. Gettysburg won their opener with Juniata, 24-7. The Bullets lead the Generals 3-1 in the series which dates to 1977. The teams last played September 12, 1981, my senior year. The game is 6:00 p.m. (E.D.T.).
Gettysburg College has quite a history.
Full preview of the game here: Football Week 2 Preview: Gettysburg – W&L
Texas Longhorns Baseball
Thanks to all the folks who emailed and subscribed to the baseball AHFD. Made me happy. Reminder for those who didn’t: you need to email me at baseball@austinhornsfan.com.
Music
Our stars at Longhorn City Limits are among my favorites. A little taste.
Shinyribs, Take Me to Lake Charles
Shinyribs, Shitty Music
Robert Earl Keen is the godfather of modern Texas country (or at least the folk/red dirt tree). I love REK.
Feelin’ Good Again (probably my favorite).
Gringo Honeymoon, live with Lyle Lovett. Lyle and REK were at Texas A&M together, where they wrote Front Porch Song
The Road Goes on Forever, his signature song
Jim Nicar
September 2012: Riding atop a jumbo jet and cruising at 1,500 feet over downtown Austin, the retired space shuttle Endeavor was seen from the U.T. Austin campus on its way from Houston to Los Angeles. It’s now on display in the California Science Center.
From Jim’s September 2, 2026 post on X.
Photo of the Week
From JType’s September 7, 2026 post on Instagram.
On X: @tctayloratx
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On Instagram: @tctayloratx
On Facebook: www.Facebook.com/Tim.C.Taylor
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You can contact me by mail:
Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371