The Texas Longhorns 24, No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes 23
Before Saturday night, AP No. 1 teams were 197-0 leading by 20 points or more heading into the fourth quarter. That is now 197-1.
Watch this first. I love Archibald Charles Manning.
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DdP4H9hs3KX/
A comeback for the ages, another win that will go down as one of the great ones in the long annals of the history of Texas Longhorns football. Witnessed by a crowd that believed in a team that believed in themselves.
It was incredible what Texas was able to do on both sides of the ball in the fourth quarter. A hot Saturday night in DKR, against the Number 1 team of the nation, and the defense managed to not just find its footing, but to find a way to shut down the best wide receiver in the country and the most accurate quarterback in the country. On offense, Arch Manning seemed to will his team to the end zone in the victory. A calmness and confidence that bodes well for the games ahead. We watched the offense methodically drive the ball down the field on three consecutive drives, not with finesse and trickeration, but with hard blocking and hard running and excellent execution by the line and skill players. Despite three quarters of being in an absolute brawl with Buckeye defense, the offensive line not only stabilized, but also took the fight to the defenders. On defense, the Sayin & Smith numbers tell it all: In the first half, Julian Sayin was 12 of 16 for 192 yards and a score. In the fourth quarter he was 2 of 9 for 16 yards and the game-ending interception. In the first three quarters “the best player in college football” Jeremiah Smith had 8 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown. In the fourth quarter, Mr. Smith had nothing. Credit Bo Mascoe; dude shut Jeremiah down: per PFF, 4 targets, no catches. Before that, 12 targets, 8 catches. [Per Justin Nash (@NashTalksTexas), Mascoe through two games: 7 targets, 2 receptions for 31 yards, 2 PBU.]
Well, sometimes statistics are just indicators, but the statistics of the Texas fourth quarter accurately tell the story of how the Longhorns won. Except for one piece of the puzzle, and the most critical piece. Coach Sarkesian discussed it in this post press conference, it has been appropriately talked about in the news and on social media, and I thought my friend RT Young’s article for his weekly Reheat on Substack did a nice job on talking through the game and Texas Culture. In the end all of the talk about Culture Wednesdays and bonding and building a team showed the results in the last 15 minutes of the of the Longhorns’ victory. The pride and winning tradition of The University of Texas will not be entrusted to the weak or the timid!
It was one of the sweetest Eyes I’ve ever sung !!
Photo by Sara Diggins, AAS
Monday Morning Highlights, on X and Instagram.
https://x.com/texasfootball/status/2099484911765705175?s=43
A Longhorn Anthology
Here is a collection of social media posts and videos which I found interesting.
Arch Manning in the post-game press conference
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DdNvBZNlNdq/?stkn=bHJscDFlYzRtN29z
A video shot from a high rise downtown. You can hear the roar from DKR.
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DdNnAeeOJ8j/
Reminds me of one of my favorite Chicago Cubs memories. Shot from over a mile from Wrigley.
Bob Ballou, one of the best in the business, post-game
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DdNwN86t5HF/
A cool timelapse video of DKR-TMS
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DdPE6JjuFMH/
Great little reel from D1 Baseball’s Jake Delongchamps
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DdUt2bqJ1Hj/
Excellent breakdown of Texas offense at work and the blocking.
https://x.com/LandonTengwall/status/2099271596003262817?s=20
Texas Homer showing an excellent Sarkisian play:
https://x.com/thetexashomer/status/2099183338485391366?s=43
A little defensive analysis from Coach Pack on X:
https://x.com/coachpack_/status/2099550095951728744?s=43
Hollywood Smothers – one helluva game!
https://x.com/NashTalksTexas/status/2099945389264716141?s=20
Spencer Shannon – great take from CJ Vogel here
https://x.com/cjvogel_otf/status/2099855651228831860?s=43
Emmett Mosley V highlights from @NashTalksTexas
https://x.com/nashtalkstexas/status/2099963125554376889?s=43
SEC Shorts – Texas takes the Throne 🤣
Highlights from ESPN College Football – 33+ minutes
Condensed game (17 minutes):
Texas Clips, Every play, 1 hour – Good work Justin!
Josh Pate –
More Josh Pate (about 10 minutes) –
JD Pickell, On3 –
Matt Barrie with Paul Finebaum –
Joel Klatt on the game – https://www.instagram.com/reel/DdRRi1hxiFY/
Joel Klatt’s Top 10. I like Klatt. https://www.instagram.com/reels/DdRM7a6MuT8/
For more, I highly recommend just going to Justin Nash’s page on X. He has several great player compilations. https://x.com/NashTalksTexas
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3/4 Texas Longhorns
I have compiled a lot of stats, as they fascinate me.
First, a look at what BCF Toys analytics projected, and reality:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Ohio State | Texas | .684 | 7.0 | 28.3 | 21.3 | 49.6 |
REALITY! |
||||||
| Winner | Loser | PM | PF | PA | PT | |
| Texas | Ohio State | 🤘🏼 | 1.0 | 24 | 23 | 47 |
ESPN’s Win Probability
First, refresher on the pregame ESPN Matchup Predictor
One of ESPN’s cool statistical gadgets is the live-time win probability, where the ESPN statistical analytics are reset (right word? not sure) after each play, and a team’s probability of winning is calculated each play of the game. It is pretty interesting (to me). Here are three snapshots in the fourth quarter (note the game clock):
I have my recap of the game below.
TCT Thoughts
First, because so many have asked (and I have asked so many), where does this game rank in all-time Texas games I have attended? Well, VY Rose Bowl over Southern Cal is still number one, and probably will be for a long, long time. The win over Michigan in the Rose Bowl is still number two. For now, this game is third. The other two games that are in the top 5 for me are probably the 45-35 win over the No. 1 Land Thieves in 2008 (Colt McCoy was 28/35 for 277 yards – Shipley had 11 catches for 12 yards and a score, Quan Cosby had 9 catches for 122 yards; my favorite line – Cody Johnson: 3 carries, 4 yards, 3 touchdowns); and the Dicker the Kicker field goal to beat the Land Thieves 48-45. The win over undefeated Texas Agricultural & Mechanical in Austin last year is right there.
Send me your top 5 Texas games for the Friday edition.
Back to beating the Buckeyes.
There are so many ways to look at this game, and if you’ve been reading the articles and watching the posts, you have no doubt enjoyed them as much as I have. There are plenty of “tale of two halves ” articles and posts. All spot on. Here are the raw numbers.
Texas |
|
|
|
Statistic |
1st Half |
2nd Half |
Change |
| Points | 3 | 21 | +18 |
| Total yards | 97 | 239 | +142 |
| Passing yards | 60 | 135 | +75 |
| Rushing yards | 37 | 104 | +67 |
| ACM completions/attempts | 7/14 | 16/23 | |
| ACM completion % | 50% | 69.6% | +19.6 |
| ACM TD/INT | 0/1 | 1/0 | |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 | Minus 2 |
| Penalties | 1-5 yards | 1-7 yards |
Ohio State |
|
|
|
Statistic |
1st Half |
2nd Half |
Change |
| Points | 20 | 3 | −17 |
| Total yards | 240 | 132 | −108 |
| Passing yards | 192 | 86 | −106 |
| Rushing yards | 48 | 46 | −2 |
| Sayin completions/attempts | 12/16 | 5/16 | −7 |
| Sayin completion % | 75.0% | 31.3% | -43.7 |
| Sayin TD/INT | 1/0 | 0/1 | |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 | Plus 1 |
| Penalties | 2–10 yards | 2–25 yards |
But reviewing the game and re-watching a good chunk of it, what struck me is the contrast between the first three series for the Longhorns offense and the last three series and the same for the Buckeyes. I went ahead and plugged in the second and third quarters, but it is the first and fourth that are crazy.
Quarter |
Texas |
Ohio State |
| First | Fumble, 1 play, -4 yards
Interception, 4 plays, 13 yards Punt, 3 pays, -4 yards Sum: 8 plays, 5 yards |
Field goal, 6 plays, 11 yards
Touchdown, 10 plays, 81 yards 16 plays, 92 yards |
| Second | Field goal, 16 plays, 69 yards
Downs, 7 plays, 24 yards
|
Downs, 10 plays, 26 yards
Field goal, 9 plays, 63 yards Touchdown, 4 plays, 49 yards |
| Third | Punt, 4 plays, 17 yards
Punt, 3 plays, 1 yard |
Punt, 6 plays, 36 yards
Field goal, 7 plays, 43 yards Punt, 3 plays, 1 yard |
| Fourth | Touchdown, 15 plays, 91 yards
Touchdown, 13 plays, 72 yards Touchdown 12 plays, 73 yards |
Punt, 3 plays, 6 yards
Missed FG, 7 plays, 48 yards Interception, 2 plays, -5 yards |
Comparing Manning’s and Sayin’s second halves:
Quarter |
Arch Manning |
Julian Sayin |
| Third | 5/8, 51 yards, 0 TD, 0 picks
62.5% |
3/7, 70 yards, 0 TD, 0 picks
42.9% |
| Fourth | 11/15, 84 yards, 1 TD, 0 picks
73.33% |
2/9, 16 yards, 0 TD, 1 pick
22.22% |
One of the interesting moments in the game was one of the times when Sark called the screen pass and the Texas receivers was tackled for a loss. I think that was the third one of the game, and none of them had produced yardage. There were a few boos, and I will admit to uttering a few words of dismay. Well, that’s why Sark is the head coach, and I am still practicing law and billing by the hour. Texas Homer shows me why I was wrong. This is really good:
https://x.com/TheTexasHomer/status/2099227919566483901?s=20
Reminds of the incredible story of Greg Maddox pitching to Jeff Bagwell in the regular season and giving up a massive homerun, intentionally, so when he faced him in the playoffs he would have him swinging on the change up that he thought would be coming inside. Still one of the most insane stories in a long, long list of wild Greg Maddox stories.
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DF7u5v5OnIS/
If you want to watch more of Texas Homer’s breakdown of the Texas offense, 20 minutes.
Looking back at a few my pre-game thoughts.
“Bo and Ja’Kobi are a two-headed Jackson monster in the backfield. That worries me the most because we didn’t look great against Texas State. Bobcats rushed for 161 yards”. The Jacksons rushed for 94 yards (Bo 74, Ja’Kobi 20).
“Our run game was just not very consistently good against Texas State. 156 yards total. That has to be turned around, the offensive line has to be better, and we have to find success running the ball.” Well, we didn’t until the fourth quarter, but lordy, did we find it.
“Our defense is going to be the difference maker.” Again, it was the second half and, particularly the fourth quarter. The defense was decisive!
My keys to the game:
Penalties – check that box! 2 for 12 yards. Unbelievable! Culture!
Longhorns win the turnover battle – okay, not so much.
“Defense has to get to Julian Sayin”: 4 hurries (January 1, Cryer 2, Geffrard 1), but interestingly none in the fourth quarter. Two sacks – Lance Jackson and Colin Simmons, both in the second quarter. Go figure.
“Need a big game from Collin Simmons. We will see if Mr. Biles is as good as we think he is.” Collin was quiet in the stats, but loud on the field. Yes, Mr. Biles is that good.
“Offensively, Arch Manning has to play up to all the expectations.” He did in the fourth quarter. And according to one post I saw, Arch is the only Texas starting quarterback to beat three top 10 teams at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium – No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, and No. 9 Vanderbilt. Arch Manning is now 10-0 in Austin..
“For him to do it, line has to block better on the run, running backs have to get yards”. They eventually did, in spectacular fashion!
“Texas cannot afford to be in third and long against this talented Matt Patricia-coached defense.” Well, not sure if my math is great, but in the first three quarters, Texas averaged 6.27 yards to gain on third down. In the fourth quarter, that was 2.2 yards. We righted the ship and look at the difference.
In the first three quarters, Texas converted 5 of 11 third downs (45.5%), and in the fourth quarter Texas converted 4 of 5 third downs.
TCT Predicted: Texas 31, Ohio State 27
I missed. But, good gosh – the Coleman whacky interception and the Wingo through-his-hands drop in the endzone?
This win has generated a lot of pundits and posters pumping out factoids. Good stuff. Examples: Sark now has wins over Ryan Day and Nick Saban. 23-1 in the last 24 games at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium. Five wins over Top 10 teams in the last 10 games. Most wins over ranked teams since 2023. It is an impressive list. Sark just got over one of the big humps. One big thing is missing. Time to make a run for Las Vegas!
If you have a favorite clip or piece of commentary, please send it along. I will have a little more on the game in the Friday morning edition for the U.T. San Antonio game.
Honors
Arch Manning – SEC Player of the Week
Trevor Goosby – SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week
Trevor Goosby – Outland Trophy National Player of the Week
Collin Simmons – AllState Wuerffel Trophy Semi-Finalist, Allstate AFCA Good Works Team
Hollywood Smothers – Paul Hornung Award Player of the Week
Some good blocking on this! You can see a little bit of No. 78, Jordon Coleman’s jersey. More on Coleman, and his brothers, below.
Game Recap
The obvious: What a simply gawd-awful start. And Ryan Day called it pregame – “we have to get off to a fast start”. First play, Raleek Brown coughs it up and Buckeyes start at the 18. After a first down, to the Texas 4, the front 7 got great penetration and pushed them back. Sayin’s pass to Smith was a bit high and hot, and Graceson Littleton in defense. Held Ohio State to a field goal, which was a small win.
First run from Hollywood was good, and in 3 runs we had a first down. Then Manning took the shot on first down and the ball ricocheted off of Coleman and into the hands of Jaylen McClain and OSU had the ball again with 4 minutes and 45 seconds gone. That first pass play to the big tight end was excellent. Sayin converted a big 3rd and 10 to Smith who got between the defenders for a 19 yard catch to the Texas 39. Buckeyes picked up yards in bunches. Third and 4 from the 8, and Bo Jackson punched it in. Two turnovers, 10 points, less than 10 minutes into the game.
Next Texas possession, so lucky to not get picked off on that first down play. Third and 4 and Manning needed to throw the ball away. Bad sack. Ended up giving Ohio State the ball at midfield after the punt. Sayin to Smith to get a first down to the Texas 34. Start of second quarter, Buckeyes had 1st and 10 at the Texas 21. On fourth and 2, at the 12, Texas held. A huge play. No points. Good job by the defense. Obviously turned out to be huge.
Arch got a first down to Cam Coleman. A successful swing pass to Wingo (should we call that a Swingo?). Then a near pick before Texas went to the ground game. Good runs, particularly by Hollywood Smothers. Got a first down to the OSU 29. Then the Wingo drop in the endzone. He will remember that. That was a touchdown. But Smothers with a good run, first and 10 from the 14. Manning sacked on 2nd and 9. Third and 15 and Arch overthrew Manning. Field goal and Texas was finally on the board with 5:42 to play in the half.
Next series on the second play Sayin to Smith for 43 yards to the Texas 30. Dang. Finally a sack, but on third and 13, Inniss caught a great pass down to the Texas 14. Then Collin Simmons got a sack back to the 22. That was big, because Ohio State couldn’t convert the long third down and settled for three.
Next series, Manning got 5 yards and then a first down to Coleman, and then 14 yards to Coleman to midfield. Some incomplete passes and on third and 10 we had our first penalty, a false start. But Ohio State jumped, back to third and 10. Brown for some reason caught the quick pass from Arch and then ran out of bounds a yard short of the line to gain. It was costly. On the next play, the Buckeyes completely blew up the Wingo end around on fourth down.
Ohio State got the ball back with a just a 49 seconds, and Sayin carved us up finishing with a touchdown to Jeremiah Smith. 20 to 3 at halftime. Feo.
Second Half
Ohio State got the ball to start the third quarter, and Bo Jackson started with a 8 yard run, and he followed it with an 11 yard run. A quick swing pass to Smith and another 11 yards for the Buckeyes, first and 10 and the Texas 45. The Horns stiffened and finally forced a punt.
Manning to Smothers got us out to the 27 on first down. Another Swingo went backwards. Third and 7 and missed Mosley, who was open. Punt.
Buckeyes start at the 27. Defense was pressuring Sayin well, and on third and 10, Sayin just throws it downfield and somehow Smith got it for a 43 yard gain to the Texas 30. Sayin missed a wide open Buckeye that would have been 6. Next play on third down, good defense, and Ohio State settled for 3 points. 20-3 Ohio State at 8:09 in the third quarter, and the Buckeyes had outgained the Longhorns 319 yards to 144.
Texas went 3 and out. Not good. Crowd was quiet. Buckeyes back to work. Texas held and forced the punt. Near disaster, as the punt went off Niblett’s facemask. Kade Phillips recovered and saved the game. But at the Texas 9. Manning scrambled for a first down and then for 8. Texas in the 2 back set and picked up the first down. Swing pass to Brown lost 4 yards. Then deep to Jelani McDonald, and he drew the DPI. Big first down. Out to the Texas 40. Swing pass did nothing, On fourth and 9 at our own 42, a great conversion with the pass to Winston. Then another pass to Emaree Winston for 22 yards. First and 10 at the 28, then a short run. On third and 8, completion to Mosley, who fumbled, and Coleman somehow falls on the ball for the first down at the 12. Then Manning scrambles to the 5 yard line. On second and 1, no gain for Smothers but then a great pass to Wingo, and Texas was finally in the endzone 40 seconds into the fourth quarter. 23-10.
Texas defense, who had spent most of the game on the field, forced a three and out at a most critical time. Punt. Crowd started getting loud again.
Texas first down at the 28. 5 yards to Spencer Shannon. Short gain, and on third and 6 too hot and high too to Shannon. Fourth and six from our own 32. HUGE. Got it to Mosley for 12 yards and the first down at the Texas 44.
Then Smothers picked up 10. Manning scrambled to make it 3rd and 1, and Brown picked up the first to the 31. Manning moved out of the pocket and found Coleman for 16 yards to the 15. Manning nearly sacked. Second and 10, and Brown with a strong 12 yard run to the 3 yard line. Brown to the 1 yard line, and on 2nd and goal, Smothers strolled into the north endzone. 23-17 with 7:14 to play.
On the ensuing Buckeye possession, a rare drop by Smith on first down was a gift, and on 2nd down good pressure before Sayin found a tight end all alone – I mean another zip code all alone – at midfield. Didn’t look good. Our second penalty, DPI, gave Ohio State a first down at the Texas 44. Big run by Bo Jackson got them to the 33. Run to the 26, but then a good play for a small loss, and then Sayin couldn’t connect with Smith for what would have been, more likely than not, a nail-in-the-coffin touchdown. On fourth down, the Ohio State kicker hooked it and missed the field goal. DKR-TMS went nuts.
4:16 to play. Brown runs for a couple, Arch to Mosley for 17, and then to Mosley for 4, then Brown for a first down in OSU territory. Completion to Winston, and on 3rd and 2 Smothers picks up a big first down on an 8 yard run. Then Smothers up the middle. Than that huge completion to Mosley to the 2. Nothing on first down, Smother stuffed on second down, and Ohio State couldn’t stop the clock (they’d burned timeouts earlier). So close, but Hollywood was short (and in the replay, did he fumble? Didn’t realize that at the time). Third down and inches. 29 seconds, Hollywood goes over the top. Spetic with the PAT and there are 25 seconds left. Unbelievable. The crowd was going nuts. I was losing it. 24-23.
The Buckeyes needed 35 yards to try a field goal, no timeouts. Huge heave by Sayin, but OSU called for holding (finally). So second and 20 from the 15. A little play that ran off some time (thanks Ryan!). But then Sayin got off the last play and thank God this time the ricochet landed in the hands of Graceson Littleton. I have rewatched the ending 5 or 6 times and I was getting sick thinking about that ball bouncing into the hands of a Buckeye instead of a Longhorn. I didn’t realize until last night that there was a flag on Ohio State for ineligible receiver downfield (which of course Sark declined). I guess I didn’t see it; had something in my eyes for a few minutes there.
Game over. One of the greatest comebacks I have ever seen.
TV
So me and 105,043 other folks at DKR-TMS saw the comeback. So did 14,000,000 viewers.
I know it isn’t just TV, but hey, I’m a boomer.
As were discussing amongst ourselves, Judd Messer shared a post which noted the comparison to last year’s game in Columbus which was the FOX Big Noon game:
- 2025 FOX Big Noon – 16.6 million
- 2026 ABC Primetime – 14.0 million
A topic of discussion for us, often. I did like some of the factors pointed out in the replies, like that last year was Labor Day Weekend and the first big game of the season, so lots of demand, things like that.
Regardless, that was one heck of a show for those who tuned in.
Coleman Triplets
Jordan (No. 78), Isaiah (No. 53), and Devin (No. 58) Coleman are triplets from Cedar Hill, Texas. Jordan Coleman (6’5″, 356) has played in both games so far. Devin (6’5″, 340) is also an offensive lineman. Devin and Jordan scholarship. Brother Isaiah (6’1″, 299) was a preferred walk-on. All sophomores. Carter Yates did a good article on the triplets a couple of years ago for Dave Campbell’s Texas Football, May of their junior year. Great opener:
ESPN Football Power Index
Including this now, because it shows how weird advanced analytics can be. Below is the top 20. Below that is the FPI top 5 from before the game, when Texas was ranked first.
And last week, before we beat the Buckeyes.
Interesting to look at the current probabilities.
2026 College Football Power Index – ESPN
Michael Taaffe
Nice start to his NFL career for Mookie.
https://x.com/Carter_Yates16/status/2099287266774450263?s=20
The Polls
Go Hoos!
I will have all the regular features and information in the Friday edition.
© Timothy C. Taylor, Sr. 2026. All Rights Reserved (as to original material).
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Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371