Florida Gators vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Florida Gators vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns welcome the Gators to Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium this Saturday, with an 11:00 a.m. kick on ABC. This will be on the fourth meeting between these two great universities, with Texas holding a 2-0-1 series record against Florida. This is our annual Veterans Recognition Game, an important day in a memorial stadium. Joe Tessitore on the call and Jesse Palmer providing analysis (and advice on furniture and dating), and Katie George will be reporting from the sidelines. The game can be heard around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns Craig Way, joined by Roger Wallace in the booth and by Will Matthews on the sidelines. Will just finished the New York Marathon with a time of 4:59:15. Attawaytogo Will! Listen in Austin on the Flagship, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM. In the Metroplex on KRLD 1080. In Tyler on KTBB 600 AM and 92.1 FM. And in San Angelo with Mr. McLaughlin on KKSA 1260 AM. SiriusXM Channel 82. Dr. Rubén Pizarro-Silva and Jesus Mendoza with the call in Spanish on certain Longhorn Radio Network affiliates and streaming on the Longhorn apps.
Texas favored by 22.5 points. The Texas moneyline is -2500, Florida is +1100. The total is 47.5. Texas is going to cover, and bet the over.
Let’s Go!
Veterans Recognition Game
I have always loved the Veterans Recognition Game. Lots of reasons, but one is because of Frank Denius. Mr. Denius was one of the greatest of the Greatest Generation, the greatest Longhorn fan I have ever known, and a beloved friend and mentor who I miss. The University and 40 Acres Films did a great hour long documentary on Mr. Denius.
The trailer for Longhorn Legend: Frank Denius
The full film. Save it for Sunday afternoon or Monday, November 11. It really is fantastic.
Anyway, the University is one of the best universities in the nation for veterans (heck, one of the best universities period!), and Frank’s leadership through the years is a big reason (for both). The Frank Denius Veterans Memorial Plaza. The patriotism Frank inspired in generations of Longhorns. And that is the tip of the iceberg of all that Mr. D did for UT. Anyway, this clip is from the 2011 game. The paratroopers dropping into DKR – Texas Memorial Stadium. And if I recall correctly, one of them landed with the game ball and met Mr. Denius at midfield to hand it to him.
This year, the game is particularly poignant, as we are celebrating the 100th anniversary of Texas Memorial Stadium. Yes, it has Coach Royal’s name on it now too, but it was and is a memorial stadium, originally dedicated to the 198,520 Texans who served in World War I and the 5,280 Texans who died in World War I (not Longhorns, Texans – our stadium is the memorial stadium for all Texans). The first game was played 100 years ago today (November 8, 1924).
The dedication game for Texas Memorial Stadium was Thanksgiving 1924. I will have a lot more to say about that for the Texas Agricultural & Mechanical game edition of the Austin Horns Fan Dispatch.
Let’s recognize, remember, and thank our veterans Saturday, and especially on Monday, and every day.
The 2024 Florida Gators
I remember this summer listening to sports talk radio and reading season previews, and one of the dominant themes, at least for the Southeastern Conference, was how brutally hard the Florida schedule was and how tough a season it might be for Billy Napier and his Gators. And on how Napier, coming into this third season in Gainesville, was on the hot seat. A lot of the time, that kind of talk is just bull and clickbait. Not on this subject. So much so that Thursday morning, Scott Stricklin, the Florida AD, issued a letter that Napier’s job was secure and he asked Gator fans to “continue standing behind Billy and his dedicated team while we work together to build a championship program.”
Game 1: Florida opened the 2024 season with then No. 19 Miami (Florida). The Hurricanes swept through the Swamp, beating the Gators 41-17, and holding Florida quarterback Graham Mertz to 91 yards – 11 for 20 with an interception and no scores. DJ Lagway was 3.6 for 31 yards and a pick. Gator RB Montrell Johnson Jr. did rush for 106 yards and a score, but 71 of that came on one run (which was a touchdown). Outside of that, he carried 10 times for 35 yards. Miami star Cam Ward was 26/35 for 385 and 3 scores with 1 pick. The Miami defense recorded 3 sacks and 8 TFL. Miami is undefeated (with a schedule that has included no ranked teams).
Game 2: The Gators rebounded with a 45-7 drubbing of the Samford Bulldogs. DJ Lagway got the start at QB, and he lit up Samford for 456 yards and 3 scores (18/25). Montrell Johnson Jr. rushed for 67 and 2 scores. Samford had 205 yards of offense. The Bulldogs are 3-5, with their only wins over Alcorn State, Virginia Military Institute, and Mercer. Losses to West Georgia, East Tennessee State, The Citadel, and Wofford. In 5th place in the Southern.
Game 3: A dark day in Gainesville, as Texas Agricultural & Mechanical came to the Swamp as 3 point favorites and went back to College Station with a solid 33-20 win. Mertz and Lagway both played and neither was very good. Mertz 12/15 for 195 and a score, but also an interception and I think a fumble. Lagway was 6 of 13 for 54 with a touchdown and 2 picks. Elko started Marcel Reed, and he did well: 11/17, 178 yards, 2 touchdowns, ran for 83 yards and a score. Of more import, the Aggies ran for 310 yards on the Gator defense. The Gators mustered all of 52 yards rushing (72 total, but Lagway was minus 20, and Johnson minus 7 on 7 carries). Napier was on the hot seat big time after losing at home to Texas Agricultural & Mechanical. Aggies are 7-2.
Game 4: The Gators got another bounce-back game with Mississippi State, beating these Bulldogs 45-28 in Starkville. Mertz had a very good game, 19/21, 201, 3 TDs passing, plus a score and 24 yards on the ground. Lagway was 7/7 for 7 yards plus 3 runs for 22 yards. Johnson had 68 yards rushing. The Florida defense did allow Mississippi State to pass for 240 yards and a score and rush for 240 yards and 3 scores. About what the Bulldogs did against Texas in the air (242 & 3 TDs) but half that on the ground (125 yards, no scores). Mississippi State is terrible, 2-7 with wins over Eastern Kentucky and Massachusetts.
Game 5: Florida beat Central Florida 24-13. Mertz 19/23, 179, 1 TD; Lagway 4/4 for 50. Montrell Johnson Jr. 54 yards and a score on 10 carries (long of 34; if you take out his long run each game, I suspect his yards per attempt average is really, really low). The Knights are 4-5 and in 12th place in the Big 12. Wins over New Hampshire, Sam Houston State, Texas Christian (35-34), then 5 straight losses (Colorado, Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa State, and Brigham Young); last game they beat Arizona 56-12. So, an 11 point win at home against a mediocre, bottom quartile Big 12 team.
Game 6: The 3-2 Gators went to Knoxville with a little hope and momentum, and in fact played a heck of a game against then No. 8 Tennessee. Gators led 3-0 at halftime, and they battled toe-to-toe with the Volunteers in the second half, forcing an overtime. Tennessee got the win 23-17, but there are, for reasons, “good losses”, and this was one for Billy Napier’s team. They played even ball with an excellent, Top 10 SEC program on the road. Mertz was 11/15 for 125 with a score, Lagway 9/17 for 98 and a score and a pick. The only loss wasn’t on the scoreboard. Graham Mertz tore up his left knee and was out of the season.
Game 7: Florida got back about .500 with a very solid 48-20 win over Kentucky (in Gainesville). Mertz was out, and Lagway was 7/14 for 259, no score, and 1 pick. But running back Jadan Baugh scored 5 touchdowns for the Gators (the 5 scores he has this year), and Lagway ran for 46, as Florida rushed for 197 yards.
Game 8: Last weekend at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the Gators gave the Georgia Bulldogs all they could handle in the first half and took a 13-6 lead to the locker room, helped by 2 Carson Beck interceptions. But Kirby Smart rallied his men and Georgia played well enough to win 34-20 (despite 2 more UGA turnovers). Unfortunately for Florida, Lagway got hurt (he was 2/6, 47 yards, 1 TD when he went out). Aidan Warner, a freshman came in, and he was not much help to the Florida cause; 7/22, 66 yards and a pick (and minus 10 on sacks).
Before taking a brief look at the Gators individually, important to look at this, the injury report:
Can DJ Lagway play on Saturday? That is the question. If he can, then Florida might not get boat-raced. If not, then young Aidan Warner, with 9 completed passes on 25 attempts this season (that’s 36%), and an interception and 2 sacks, will have to carry the load.
At running back, Montrell Johnson Jr. (who is questionable) and Jadan Baugh each have 70 carries this season. Johnson has 373 yards and 4 scores, Baugh has 323 yards and 5 scores (all in that Kentucky game). Ja’Kobi Jackson has 40 rushes for 227 yards and 4 scores. Johnson has 13 catches for 64 yards, Jackson 3 for 26. No receiving scores for the RB corps.
At receiver, Elijah Badger, who is questionable for Texas, leads the Gators with 24 catches for 560 yards and 2 scores. Badger is actually 8th in the SEC with 70 ypg, and 2nd in ypc with 23.33. Chimere Dike has 23 for 428 with 2 scores. Eugene Wilson III, who is out, has 19 for 266 and a score.
Two decent tight ends. Hayden Hansen has 9 receptions for 145 yards and a score. Arlis Boardingham has 15 for 115 and 2 touchdowns.
Going out on a limb here: There has never been an NCAA team in any sport with one player named Boardingham and another named Trikweze.
The Gator defense is bottom half in the nation and bottom quartile in the SEC. Trikweze Bridges (Senior DB) leads with 41 tackles (19 solo), 1 interception, and 2 forced fumbles. Interestingly, Edge Jack Pyburn (6-3, 265 Junior) is second on the team with 39 tackles (14 solo) and a pick. Grayson Howard (6-4, 238, sophomore linebacker) has 37 tackles (17 solo), a sack, and a forced fumble. Edge Tyreak Sapp (6-2, 272, RS Junior) has 25 tackles and 3.5 sacks for 24 yards and a forced fumble.
One other guy to watch for, and you can’t miss him, is Desmond Watson, one of their defensive linemen. Watson is 6-5 and 449 pounds (four hundred forty-nine – not a typo). Huge. The senior from Plant City, Florida only has 12 tackles this year, but he takes up a lot of space. And against a Texas team that, I think I can fairly say, is struggling in the run game, Mr. Watson may weigh heavily in slowing the Longhorns rushing attack.
The Gator kicker is Trey Smack. 29/29 on PATs. 9/1 on field goals.
The Statistics
Offense
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Rushing Offense | #65, #9 –158.4 ypg | #83, #12 – 145.4 ypg |
| Passing Offense | #13, #4 – 294.8 ypg | #56, 9 – 244.8 ypg |
| Total Offense | #16, #4 – 453.2 ypg | #69, #12 – 390.2 ypg |
| Scoring Offense | #16, #3 – 37.6 ppg | #57, #11 – 29.5 ppg |
| First Downs | #51, #6 – 21.5/game | #92, #13 – 19.3/game |
| Sacks Allowed | #69, #6 – 17, 116 yards | #41, #4 – 12, 85 yards |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed | #92, #11 – 50, 196 yards | #70, #7 – 46, 164 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #20, #3 – 46.5% | #104, #14 – 36.2% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #121, #15 – 35.7%, 5/14 | #106, #13 – 42.9% |
| Red Zone Attempts | #12, #4 – 39 | #41, #7 – 34 |
| Red Zone Offense | #54, #5 – 87% / 74% | #68, #7 – 85% / 68% |
| Long Run Plays | #96, #13 – 34/10, 17/20, 5/30, 3/40 | #77, #12 – 39/10, 7/20, 3/30, 1/40 |
| Long Pass Plays | #38, #6 -87/10, 40/20, 17/30, 8/40 | #72, #9 – 72/10, 32/20, 17/30, 11/40 |
Defense
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Rushing Defense | #16, #3 – 105.5 ypg | #88, #15 – 162.0 ypg |
| Passing Defense | #1, #1 – 135.8 ypg | #68, #10 – 219.4 ypg |
| Total Defense | #1, #1 – 241.3 ypg | #81, #14 – 381.4 ypg |
| Scoring Defense | #2, #1 – 11.5 ppg | #72, #14 – 24.9 ppg |
| First Downs Allowed | #2, #1 – 14.1/game | #119, #15 – 22.4/game |
| Sacks | #39, #7 – 20, 116 yards | #46, #10 – 19, 118 yards |
| Tackles for Loss | #38, #7 – 55, 197 yards | #75, #13 – 45, 176 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #7, #4 – 28.4% | #76, #12 – 39.4% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #46, #4 – 47.4%, 9/19 | #50, #6 – 50%, 7/14 |
| Red Zone Attempts | #2, #1 – 15 | #53, #12 – 27 |
| Red Zone Defense | #19, #6 – 73% / 47% | #72, #13 – 85% / 59% |
| Long Run Plays Allowed | #5, #1 – 21/10, 1/20, 1/30, 1/40 | #58, #13 – 37/10, 8/20, 2/30, 0/40 |
| Long Pass Plays Allowed | #1, #1 – 38/10, 12/20, 3/30, 2/40 | #69, #9 – 74/10, 33/20, 11/30, 3/40 |
* Texas defense has allowed 1,930 yards all season; Florida has given up 3,051 yards. That’s a delta.
Other
Statistic |
Texas |
Florida |
| Turnovers | #95, #12 – 14, 6F, 8I | #67, #8 – 12, 7F, 3I |
| Turnover Margin | #40, #6 – 17:14 +3 | #69, #11 – 12:12 0 |
| Penalties | #81, #6 – 55, 454 yards | #37, #1 – 45, 403 yards |
*Based on total number of penalties.
Match-up Comparison
Texas Offense |
Florida Defense |
| Rushing Offense – 158.4 ypg | 162.0 ypg – Rushing Defense |
| Passing Offense – 294.8 ypg | 219.4 ypg – Passing Defense |
| Total Offense – 453.2 ypg | 381.4 ypg – Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense – 37.6 ppg | 24.9 ppg – Scoring Defense |
| First Downs – 21.5/game | 22.4/game – First Downs Allowed |
| 3rd Down Offense – 46.5% | 39.4% – 3rd Down Defense |
| 4th Down Offense – 35.7% | 50% – 4th Down Defense |
| Red Zone Offense – 87%/74% | 85%/59% – Red Zone Defense |
| LRP – 34/10, 17/20, 5/30, 3/40 | 37/10, 8/20, 2/30, 0/40 – LRP Allowed |
| LPP – 87/10, 40/20, 17/30, 8/40 | 74/10, 33/20, 11/30, 3/40 – LPP Allowed |
| Texas Defense | Florida Offense |
| Rushing Defense – 105.5 ypg | 145.4 ypg – Rushing Offense |
| Passing Defense – 135.8 ypg | 244.8 ypg – Passing Offense |
| Total Defense – 241.3 ypg | 390.2 ypg – Total Offense |
| Scoring Defense – 11.5 ppg | 29.5 ppg – Scoring Offense |
| First Downs Allowed – 14.1/game | 19.3/game – First Downs |
| 3rd Down Defense – 28.4% | 36.2% – 3rd Down Offense |
| 4th Down Defense – 47.4% | 42.9% – 4th Down Offense |
| Red Zone Defense – 73%/47% | 85%/68% – Red Zone Offense |
| LRP Allowed – 21/10, 1/20, 1/30, 1/40 | 39/10, 7/20, 3/30, 1/40 – LRP |
| LPP Allowed – 38/10, 12/20, 3/30, 2/40 | 72/10, 32/20, 17/30, 11/40 – LPP |
One of the secret sauces for this year’s defense is limiting explosive plays.
Here is where Texas ranks in long scrimmage plays (run & pass):
- 1 overall, with only 59 plays over 10 yards. Next closest is Penn State with 69
- 1 in plays over 20 yards, with just 10 allowed.
- 1 in plays over 30 yards, with just 4 allowed.
- Tied for No. 4 (with 8 other teams) with 3 plays over 40 yards. Ohio State, Tennessee, and Wisconsin tied for first with 2 allowed.
- Tied for No. 3 (with 15 other teams) with 1 play over 50 yards. James Madison and Minnesota have not allowed a play over 50.
BCF Toys
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | |
| Texas | No. 5: 1.15 | No. 15: 0.38 | No. 1: 0.76 | No. 50: 0.03 |
| Florida | No. 23: 0.59 | No. 41: 0.12 | No. 26: 0.32 | No. 7: 0.11 |
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 2: 0.306 | No. 17: 0.569 | No. 1: 0.263 |
| Florida | No. 89: -.052 | No. 92: 0.443 | No. 81: 0.495 |
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 4: 2.12 | No. 12: 3.13 | No. 1: 1.01 |
| Florida | No. 72: -.01 | No. 64: 2.27 | No. 74: 2.28 |
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 4: 2.95 | No. 18: 6.64 | No. 1: 3.69 |
| Florida | No. 51: 0.29 | No. 54: 5.98 | No. 56: 5.68 |
Possession Efficiency. Possession Efficiency (PVE) is unadjusted scoring value calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions (NP) in FBS vs. FBS games.
| PVE | OVE | DVE | SVE | |
| Texas | No. 5: 1.05 | No. 16: 0.27 | No. 1: 0.82 | No. 86: -0.03 |
| Florida | No. 72: -.03 | No. 84: -.18 | No. 72: 0.06 | No. 30: 0.05 |
In BCF’s F+ ratings (Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings combined with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings), Texas is No. 5. Offensively, Texas is No. 11; defensively, Texas is No. 2. Florida is No. 24, No. 27 offense, No. 35 defense.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas | Florida | .823 | 14.3 | 31.3 | 17.0 | 48.4 |
ESPN Analytics:
College Football Insiders:
Advance Stats Preview from Nik Patel. Pretty sobering. Definitely worth reading.
Texas Homer
The official Game Notes from The University of Texas:
Week 10 – Florida (PDF) – University of Texas Athletics
TCT Thoughts
As I worked on this week’s edition and looked at the Gators and then realized how many key Gators are out, I realized how different this would if (1) Mertz was playing, and (2) if we knew how hurt Lagway is and if he can even really play. Losing DJ Lagway really hamstrings Napier and his offense. Even more so if Elijah Badger can’t play.
The result is, when coupled with a busy week and it being Friday morning as I write this section (I always do it last), a limited edition of TCT Thoughts.
First, the Florida offense vs. the Texas Defense. This would be a huge Advantage Texas even if all the Gators were healthy. On the season stats, a middle to low offense (middling nationally, low SEC) against the best defense in the nation and in the Southeastern Conference. A Florida offense that is No. 92 in offensive available yards percentage going up Texas which is No. 1 in defensive available yards percentage. The Florida offense is 64th in offensive points per drive, while the Texas defense is number 1.
If Lagway is healthy, the Florida offense might be able to score 17 to 21 points on Saturday. Without him, it is going to be a long day for Napier’s boys.
The Texas offense vs. the Florida defense. The Gator defense has improved over the season, as evidenced by the good game in Knoxville, a solid game helping Florida to beat Kentucky, then staying in the game with Georgia. So their stats and metrics are not necessarily indicative of the ball they are playing right now. Maybe. Their secondary is banged up bad, with I think 3 of their top cornerbacks out, questionable, or going to play hurt. That isn’t a good combo for Florida with a Texas offense that probably feels like it has something to prove, and a head coach who knows he’s got to win and have his team hitting on all cylinders as we hit the final stretch of the season with two of our remaining games on the road against bitter rivals.
The concern, offensively, is our run game and our line. I was pretty blunt last week about the issues on the offensive line, and a 4-4 Florida team is still an SEC team desperate for a win and coming to play the mighty Longhorns. The O-Line play, plus our run game, have got to get back to “reasonably good” if Texas is going to close out the regular season with four wins. And Texas can’t get four more wins unless they win tomorrow. So, this once stellar (or apparently stellar) offensive line has to buckle down, quit committing so many penalties, open holes, and protect their quarterback. That is the key to this game. That is the key to Arkansas game. That is the key to winning and getting a shot in Atlanta on December 7. Blue has to run better. Quintrevion has to run more, and let’s give the ball to Gibson some.
Ewers has struggled since coming back from his injury. Not great number against not great defenses. Part of that is the line in front of him, especially as that has combined with what I perceive to be very good scouting of the Texas offensive schemes. Quinn has to get more time. He has an absolute stable of stud wide receivers, and one of the best tight ends in the country. Ewers has to settle down, read quick (and look for long arms), set his feet, and throw strikes. But he also has to have time to do that.
Texas needs to play much cleaner football. After 8 games, the Longhorns should not be getting flagged more than 4 or 5 times a game. Other teams do it. There are 24 teams in FBS that average 5 or less penalties per game. The Texas Longhorns should be at that level. And playing clean football also means not turning the ball over, and especially not deep in our own end of the field. Even a mediocre offense led by a shaky freshman might get lucky and execute a 34 yard touchdown drive. Or two.
The Gators just aren’t that great, and Texas can be great. But, to win and hopefully win big, Texas has to play better than the past few games. I trust in Sark, and I trust we will see a better Texas offense on Saturday morning. I trust these guys are refocused after a week off, have watched and studied film, and have recommitted to excellence. I like what Coach Sarkisian said this week when asked if winning the conference championship game was as important as it once was, since it is like with then new playoff system that both teams in the SEC CG will be in the CFP. Coach said “Not around here. Our first goal is to win an SEC Championship.”
I mixed some special orange kool-aid, added some of that orange-flavored powdered vitamin C mix, and drank a quart.
Texas 38, Florida 13
Texas Longhorns vs. Florida Gators
College Football Playoff Rankings
AP Top 25 & Coaches Poll
Massey Ratings
Oregon, Ohio State, Miami (Florida), Indiana (!), Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Brigham Young.
College Football Insiders
Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Ole Miss are the top 5. Notre Dame, Bama, Tennessee, Miami (Florida), Penn State round out the top 10.
PFF
Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, Miami (Florida), Texas are the top 5. Brigham Young, PSU, Indiana, Tennessee, and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish round out the Top 10. Texas Agricultural & Mechanical dropped to 13th.
College Football Rankings: Top 25 entering Week 11
ESPN College Football Power Index
ESPN’s analytics now have Texas with a 31.2% chance of winning the SEC, 74.4% of making the playoffs, a 24.7% chance of making the championship game, and a 15.3% chance of winning it all.
2024 College Football Power Index – ESPN
ESPN SP+ from Bill Connelly
The University of Florida
Florida traces its origins to 1853, and its main precursor was Florida Agricultural College, a Morrill Act land-grant college established in 1884. I never knew that the Gators were aggies.
Academic Rankings |
||
National |
||
Texas |
Florida |
|
| Forbes | 25 | 25 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 32 | 30 |
| ARWU | 25 | — |
| Washington Monthly | 87 | 22 |
| THE | 21 | 36 |
| QS | 19 | — |
| Global | ||
| ARWU | 45 | 101-150 |
| QS | 66 | 168 |
| THE | 38 | 132= |
| U.S. News & World Report | 56 | 98 |
Famous alumni include Faye Dunaway, Marco Rubio, and Erin Andrews.
Texas Longhorns Basketball
The Texas men opened the season in Las Vegas with a 72-80 loss to The Ohio State University Buckeyes. Lots of new faces, but my goodness, Tre Johnson. The phenomenal freshman played 39 minutes and scored 29 points, shot 50% from the floor (including 5/10 from 3), 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and a block. The Horns play Houston Christian tonight (Friday November 8) at the Moody Center, 7:00 p.m. I suggest you take every opportunity you get to see Johnson play. He will be in the Association this time next year.
Texas One
The Texas One Fund is the official NIL collective that supports The University of Texas athletics. Texas One provides opportunities to Longhorns use their name, image, and likeness to promote charitable causes. Contributions to Texas One now count toward your Longhorn Foundation loyalty points. It is critically important to support Texas One and NIL for Longhorns. Consider a monthly donation. It makes a difference.
Week Eleven in the Southeastern Conference
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (7-1, 5-1) vs. No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels (7-2, 3-2), 2:30 p.m. on ABC and streaming on ESPN+. I bet this is going to be an incredible weekend in Oxford and, if the rain holds off, an exceptional day at The Grove. A very consequential game for the teams and the Conference. College Football Insiders Georgia favored by 2.5, over/under is 55.5. Hotty Toddy! Are you ready?
BCF’s Game Projection. Note the projected score for the Rebels – 26 points. Ole Miss is No. 1 in the SEC (and No. 4 in the country) averaging 45.1 ppg. Interesting projection.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Ole Miss | Georgia | .560 | 2.1 | 26.0 | 23.9 | 49.9 |
South Carolina (5-3, 3-3) at Vanderbilt (6-3, 3-2) 3:15 p.m. on the SEC Network. Gamecocks coming off the huge win over Texas Agricultural & Mechanical. Commodores are 4.5 point home dogs, total is 45.5.
Mississippi State (2-7, 0-5) at No. 7 Tennessee (7-1, 4-1), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN. Should be a blowout at Neyland. Vols favored by 24.5, total is 61.5.
No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-2, 3-2) at No. 15 Louisiana State, 6:30 p.m. on ABC from Death Valley. What a great football game this is going to be. Alabama favored by 2.5. total is 58.5. Looking forward to settling in with a good Negroni and watching this one.
BCF’s Game Projection.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Alabama | Louisiana State | .531 | 1.1 | 28.5 | 27.5 | 56.0 |
Oklahoma Land Thieves (5-4, 1-4) at No. 24 Missouri (6-2, 2-2), 6:45 p.m. on the SEC Network. This is actually an old series that dates back to 1901. The Land Thieves lead it 67-24-5. Since 1970, Missouri has won 4 and lost 32. Rough half century. Land Thieves favored by 3, over/under is 41.5. I find it very interesting that the team with one conference win is favored on the road against the team in the CFP top 25. If I were a betting man, might have to think about betting a little on Mizzou.
Texas Agricultural & Mechanical has the week off. Bless their hearts.
Week 11: Service Academies
Navy (6-2, 4-1) at South Florida (4-4, 2-2), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN2. Midshipmen favored by 3.5 in Tampa, over/under is 56.5.
No. 25 Army (8-0) at North Texas (5-3), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN2. A good challenge for the Black Knights facing Eric Morris’ Mean Green. Chandler Morris is No. 1 in the nation in passing now, averaging 359.1 yard per game with 26 touchdowns (8 picks). Army No. 28 passing defense, allowing 188.5 ypg, having given up just 9 touchdowns while making 12 interceptions. Black Knights favored by 4, over/under is 64.5. I am going to guess that is the highest total for an Army game this year.
Fresno State (5-4) at Air Force (1-7), 8:45 p.m. on FOX. Impressive broadcast for the Falcons, West Coast primetime on FOX. Unfortunately, not likely to change their success. Tough year. Bulldogs favored by 10.5 at the Academy, total is 40.5.
Top 25 – Week Eleven
Purdue (1-7, 0-5) at No. 2 The Ohio State University (7-1,43-1) 11:00 a.m. on FOX. How funny would it be for the Boilermakers to upset the Buckeyes? Ain’t happening, but it would be funny. Buckeyes favored by 38, total is 53.5.
No. 4 Miami (Florida) (9-0) at Georgia Tech, 11:00 a.m. on ESPN. Miami favored by 11, over/under is 63.5.
Michigan (5-4) at No. 8 Indiana (9-0), 2:30 p.m. on CBS. Sure feels like those school names are reversed, doesn’t it? Michigan leads the series 62-10. The Hoosiers have won 3 games against the Wolverines since I was born in 1960. Indiana favored by 14.5, total is 49.5. Go Big Blue!
No. 17 Iowa State (7-1) at Kansas (2-6), 2:30 p.m. on FS1. Cyclones are coming off a brutal loss to the Sand Aggies. Interesting, Iowa State only favored by 3 at Arrowhead. I have not watched any of the KU “home” games this year to see what they are like, but may get home and check this one out.
No. 23 Clemson (6-2) at Virginia Tech (5-4), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN. Tigers in a world of hurt now as far as making the playoffs. Have to run the table and starting that new run in Blacksburg won’t be easy. Clemson favored by 6, over/under is 53.5.
No. 20 Colorado (6-2, 4-1) at Texas Tech (6-3, 4-2), 3:00 p.m. on FOX. Jody, some extra info for you brother. Looks like it will be a very close game, although ESPN Analytics give the Buffs a 63.3% probability of winning. Primetime and Colorado favored by 4, total is 62.5
BCF’s Game Projection.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Colorado | Sand Aggies | .556 | 2.0 | 27.2 | 25.2 | 52.3 |
Maryland (4-4) at No. 1 Oregon 6:00 p.m. on BTN. Ducks favored by 25, over/under is 57.5. Oregon to win and cover, and I will take the over.
Florida State (1-8) at No. 10 Notre Dame (7-1), 6:30 p.m. on NBC. If the Fighting Irish had just not stubbed their toe against NIU, I would be laughing about how bad they would be beating the Noles this year. Especially at Notre Dame Stadium. Hope it all goes well. Notre Dame favored by 26.5 (they were favored by 28 against the Huskies). Over/under is 42.5.
Washington (5-4) at No. 6 Penn State (7-1), 7:00 p.m. on Peacock. Hope the Huskies get the upset and put an end to Nittany dreams of the playoffs. PSU favored by 13.5, over/under is 46.5.
Nevada (3-7) at No. 12 Boise State (7-1), 7:00 p.m. on FOX. A little confused about the Air Force broadcast starting at 8:45. Honestly, that interests me more than this game. Broncos favored by 24, total is 60.5.
Virginia (4-4, 2-3) at No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-1, 3-1), 7:00 p.m. on the ACC Network. Panthers favored by 7.5, over/under is 56.5. Go Hoos!
No. 9 Brigham Young (8-0) at Utah (4-4), 9:15 p.m. on ESPN. The Holy War. Utes lead the series 59-32-4. Most of the Brigham Young wins came between 1972 and 1992, when Lavell Edwards was coaching in Provo. Since then, Cougars have won about 8 games to the Utes’ 19. Not the year Utah was expecting. Not the year I expected Brigham Young to have. Cougars favored by 3, over/under is 40.5.
Utah State (2-6) at No. 21 Washington State (7-1), 9:30 p.m. on The CW Network. These Cougars also favored to win, by 20.5.
Other Games of Interest – Week 11
Tuesday night, the Miami Redhawks defeated the Ball State Cardinals 24-21 to move to 4-1 in the MAC. That win put Miami in a 4-way tie for first in the Mid-American, with the Ohio Bobcats, the Bowling Green Falcons, and the Western Michigan Broncos. November is going to have some MACtion!
Friday
Rice at Memphis, 8:00 p.m. on ESPN2. “Tickets as low as $10.” Surprisingly, the Tigers are only favored by 8.
Saturday
Kennesaw State (1-7) at UTEP (1-8), 3:00 p.m. on ESPN+ from the Sun Bowl. Why of interest? Well, UTEP. But also because Kennesaw State is in their first season in the FBS, and I failed to note last week that they got their first FBS win against Liberty 2 weeks ago. Pretty cool. Go Miners. UTEP favored by 3.5.
Central Florida (4-5, 3-2) at Arizona State (6-2, 3-2), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN2. Cam Skattebo is 2nd in the nation in yards from scrimmage, averaging 175.6 ypg. He’s already rushed for over 1,000 yards, and he is 7th in FBS with 125.3 yards per game. ASU has started a Heisman campaign. I think that is good. Kid plays football. Wish he was in Austin. Sun Devils favored by 2.5.
Oklahoma State (3-6, 0-6) at Texas Christian (5-4, 3-3), 6:00 p.m. on FS1. Of interest to all my frog friends, and of interest to me as the “Will Gundy’s Boys Win a Big 12 Game” watch is now on. Probably not this Saturday at Amon Carter. Texas Christian favored by 10.5.
The Juan Heisman Tailgate
The Crew will be back in action, although still recovering from the Georgia tailgate party! Breakfast tacos, Tito’s Handmade Vodka bloody marys and screwdrivers, and plenty of cold beer. LTGTR.
Washington & Lee University
Tough home loss to Randolph-Macon, 7-20, as the Generals could not get the offense going and turned the ball over twice. But it was a great weekend in Lex for friends from Austin, as the Jastrow’s and Dyess’s made the trip to Rockbridge County with the Donovan’s to see Harrison play. Corby, thanks for all the photos.All of them. I miss fall (and spring) in the Blue Ridge.
This Saturday, the Generals make the trip up Interstate 81 (and a couple of miles west on 257) to Bridgewater College for a 2:00 p.m. game with the Eagles. Bridgewater is 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the ODAC, but coming into this game on a 2-game losing streak. The Eagles opened the season with a 7-41 loss to No. 7 Susquehanna, then won 5 in a row: 80-0 over Southern Virginia, 28-14 over Millsaps, 41-15 over Ferrum, 63-7 over Averett, and 22-21 over Shenandoah. Then a 49-16 loss to Randolph-Macon and 28-21 loss to Hampden-Sydney.
W&L and Bridgewater first played in 1964, a 28-16 win. The Generals lead the series 31-22, and they are 14-13 at Bridgewater. Huge game for the Blue & White if they want to keep conference title and playoff hopes alive.
More photos from the Jastrow-Dyess-Donovan TexLex weekend. Corby did not hurt himself in posing for the first photo.
House Park Bar-B-Que
The opening of House Park Bar-B-Que got delayed. Now planning on Need No Teef to Eat My Beef barbecue on Monday November 11.
Grandchildren
Grandchidren are without a doubt one of life’s greatest blessings. The Dean kids and Lottie Fleming, Halloween 2024
Peter, Micah, and Helen Kate Dean
Micah loves his baby sister so much.
Helen Kathryn Dean.
Lottie, with her chocolate bruddah Ridley.
Week Ten in the Southeastern Conference
No. 10 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 20, South Carolina 44. What a game by the Gamecocks. Tied 20-20 at half (after the aggies bounced back from the early body blows), and USC came out in the third quarter on fire. 10 points in the third quarter. And an interception and fumble recovery in the fourth as the Cocks shut out Texas Agricultural & Mechanical in the second half. But, have to say I am impressed with the Aggies. Very good team. Also, the game shows how off the mathemetricians© and their projections can be, as BCF Toys had the total points in the game at 45 and Texas Agricultural & Mechanical winning by 1.
Ole Miss was only favored by 7.5 at Arkansas, and the total was 53.5. Jaxson Dart roasted that and the pigs, 63-31. Hotty Toddy!
Vanderbilt got the road win at Auburn 17-7, as I expected. Tigers were favored by 7.
Land Thieves 59, Maine 14. One more win and Oklahoma is bowl eligible. Boomer!
Georgia Bulldogs 34, Florida Gators 20. [Discussed above]
Mississippi State wins! 45-20 over Massachusetts.
Tennessee 28-18 over Kentucky. Ended up making a Manhattan with the Woodford Double Oaked – it was magnificent.
Week 10: Service Academies
Air Force did a good job in the first half on defense, and it was 6-3 Army at halftime. But the Black Knights got it going in and won 20-3.
Incredible upset win for the Rice Owls, as they knock off Navy 24-10. Actually one of the bigger upsets of the season, in my opinion.
Top 25 – Week Ten
Friday
Boise State hammered San Diego State 56-24.
Saturday
No. 4 The Ohio State University 20-13 over No. 3 Penn State.
Duke actually led Miami (Florida) 21-17 at halftime. It didn’t go well after that, as Cam Ward and the Canes put a second half beating on the Blue Devils, posting 36 points. 53-31 final. Kudos to Maalik Murphy, who battled hard – 325 yards and 3 touchdowns. But it was his 3 interceptions and fumble that damned the devils. Cam Ward 25/41 for 400 yards and 5 scores (1 pick). He’s going to New York City.
Minnesota with the 25-17 over then No. 24 Illinois.
No. 1 Oregon is very good. 38-17 over Michigan. Not that different from 31-12 Texas score. Worth noting. Dillon Gabriel 22/34 for 294 and a score. Bet there are some Land Thieves who get sick to their stomach watching Dillon and the Ducks play ball this year.
Texas Tech upsets No. 11 Iowa State 23-22 in Ames. Sand Aggies drove the ball 71 yards and scored with 19 seconds left in the game to get the win.
No. 13 Indiana 47-10 over Michigan State. Hoosiers actually trailed 10-0 after first quarter, first time all year.
Houston upsets No. 17 Kansas State 24-19, Cougars storm the field. Hope you got to watch that somehow Joe.
Louisville with a huge upset at No. 11 Clemson, 33-21.
No. 20 Southern Methodist University 48, No. 18 Pittsburgh 25. Mustangs led 31-3 at half. Pony QB Kevin Jennings is very good. 17/25 for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Other Games of Interest – Week 10
UTSA Roadrunners with a big 44-36 win over Memphis.
Nebraska’s season sure soured. UCLA 27, Cornhuskers 20.
North Carolina 35-11 over Florida State. Congrats Mack! Bet that blue tower looked good.
Middle Tennessee 20-13 over UTEP.
Arizona State 42-21 over Oklahoma State. Brutal season for the Cowboys, and tough game as Skattebo ran for 153 yards and a score (23 carries) and caught 4 passes for 121 yards and two touchdowns One was a 50 yard yarder on fourth and 1). I know I keep talking about this kid, and if you haven’t watched him, watch this. You will get it.
Washington beats Southern Cal 26-21. Trojans are 4-5, with Nebraska, UCLA, and Notre Dame left on the schedule. Legitimate chance Riley doesn’t get Southern Cal in a bowl game. Wow. Sorry Art and Walt!
Baylor bests Texas Christian 37-34 in the Revivalry. Bears score 17 in the fourth.
Music
Quincy Delight Jones, Jr. passed on November 3rd. His music and entertainment career spanned seven decades – longer than my life so far. 28 Grammy Awards (3rd all time, and he had 80 nominations), an Emmy, a Tony, and was nominated for 7 Oscars. It would be impossible to do his career and his impact justice, but his obituary in the New York Times is worth your read. I love this quote:
Mr. Jones began his career as a jazz trumpeter and was later in great demand as an arranger, writing for the big bands of Count Basie and others; as a composer of film music; and as a record producer. But he may have made his most lasting mark by doing what some believe to be equally important in the ground-level history of an art form: the work of connecting.
For me, his work in jazz, which began in the 1950’s, is the most important of his music, simply because I treasure America’s greatest and original musical genre. Although given that he produced Off the Wall, Thriller, and Bad for Michael Jackson, three of MJ’s greatest albums, and his work in other genres, in TV (Roots), stage (The Color Purple), and film (In the Heat of the Night, The Pawnbroker, In Cold Blood, The Color Purple – nearly 40 movie scores), one can argue that Quincy’s talent and influence was unparalleled in America music and arts during his lifetime.
Jones’s musical career began in jazz, and so that is mostly what we are going to listen to this week.
Evening in Paris, from the album This is How I Feel About Jazz. 1957. Quincy’s first LP as bandleader. Some giant names on this one, including Charlie Mingus, Herbie Mann, Art Pepper, and Eli “Lucky” Thompson.
One Mint Julep, Ray Charles, from the 1961 album Genius + Soul = Jazz. Arranged by Jones and Ralph Burns.
Soul Bossa Nova, composed by Quincy. Released in 1962 on his album Big Band Bossa Nova. Like Stan Getz, Quincy helped introduce Americans to Bossa Nova. Most will recognize this tune from a more recent film.
Fly Me to the Moon, Frank Sinatra, 1964. Jones arranged and conducted the recording of one of Sinatra’s greatest albums, It Might as Well be Swing.
The Pawnbroker, composed, arranged, and conducted by Quincy Jones, from the 1964 film. If you listen to this, you may think it could be one of 100’s of film scores you have heard in your life. Maybe because Pawnbroker was so great and perfect.
Quincy Jones, Ai No Corrida. 1981, as Quincy explored disco.
The Streetbeater, Quincy Jones, from his 1973 album You’ve Got it Bad Girl.
An interview with Quincy Jones on the song:
Jim Nicar
1928: A colorized postcard view looking north on University Avenue at the UT Austin campus. Old Main is at the top of the hill (which should have a grey roof). Sutton and Battle Halls are to the left, and Gebauer, Garrison, and the old Law Building to the right.
From Jim’s Post on October 25, 2024
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Picture of the Week
An exceptional series of photographs of downtown Austin, shot south of the river and looking back east with the moon.
From Austin photographer JType’s Instagram post on November 6, 2024
Quotes of the Week
America lost one of its great treasures with the passing of Quincy Jones. He was an extraordinarily gifted man, and as Daron K. Roberts noted in is SITDE #209 newsletter this week, it would be so cool to see Robert Caro write a biography on Quincy. (If you don’t subscribe to DKR’s newsletter, I highly recommend it. Stay In The Deep End (a lifeletter by Daron K. Roberts) | Substack). Anyway, this is a quote I saw attributed to Quincy Jones:
“I learned very early why God gave us two ears and one mouth, he wants us to listen twice as much as we talk.”
A good reminder from Ivan, this quote from Thomas Jefferson: “Honesty is the first chapter in the book of wisdom.”
God Bless Texas
God Bless America
Dios y Tejas,
Tim Taylor
Member, Football Writers Association of America
Tailgating before Home Football Games
The Juan Heisman Tailgate
Lot 38, East of Sid Richardson Hall
HOOK EM HORNS!
The Austin Horns Fan Dispatch
Vol. XXI, No. 12
© Timothy C. Taylor, Sr. 2024. All Rights Reserved (as to original material).
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