No. 3 Texas Longhorns 38, No. 16 Clemson Tigers 24
Saturday, December 21, 2024, was a glorious day in Austin, Texas. The highlight of the day was the Texas Longhorns winning the first ever FBS college football playoff game in the State of Texas and advancing to the CFP quarterfinals to play Arizona State. A spectacular day rushing the ball for Texas, as Jaydon Blue rushed for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns (including the 77 yarder, photo above, a split second before he hit the afterburner) and Quintrevion Wisner ran for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns, as the Horns gashed the Tigers for 292 yards on the ground. Ewers was solid, with 202 yards (17/24) and a score. Another goal line stand by the defense. The game was the highlight of the day, but that beautiful Saturday also had a great Juan Heisman Tailgate party with family and friends and a huge crowd of Horns fans. Also, Pat Green at Longhorn City Limits and another phenomenal production of Burnt Orange pride and spirit at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium. A really good day.
Monday Morning Highlights:
Texas vs. Clemson: The Mini-Movie:
Highlights in Español. ¡Simplemente significa más!
https://x.com/TexasFootball/status/1871573411648172391
No. 3 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils
The Texas Longhorns and Arizona State Sun Devils meet in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl for the CFP quarterfinal game. 12:00 noon on New Year’s Day, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta (1:00 p.m. in Georgia). It is just the second time Texas and ASU have played, the first being a 52-34 Texas win in 2007 in the Holiday Bowl, 52-34. The Longhorns are playing in the Peach Bowl for the first time. If Texas wins, the Longhorns will be the only team to have won all six of the New Year’s Day bowls (more on our bowl history below).
The game will be on ESPN. Joe Tessitore with the play-by-play, Jesse Palmer with analysis, and Taylor McGregor and Katie George on the sidelines. Listen around the world on the Longhorn Radio Network with the Voice of the Longhorns, Craig Way, Roger Wallace with analysis, and Lifetime Longhorn Will Matthews reporting on the sidelines. Listen in Austin on the flagship, KVET, 1300 AM and 98.1 FM. In San Antonio and south Texas on clear channel WOAI 1200 AM. Listen in Tyler on KTBB 600, and in San Angelo with Mr. McLaughlin on KKSA 1260 (or maybe KCLL 100.1 FM). Texas opened as a 12.5 point favorite. Line early Tuesday morning is Texas minus 13. The over/under is 51.5, and the money lines are Texas minus 500, ASU plus 360.
Also, for the folks who asked about my stating “No. 3 Texas”: in the final College Football Rankings, Texas was ranked No. 3. In the tournament, Texas is the fifth seed. I elected to go with CFP rankings as opposed to seeding, at least for this year.
The Statistics
Offense
Statistic |
Texas |
Arizona State |
| Rushing Offense | #49– 173.5 ypg | #22 – 198.9 ypg |
| Passing Offense | #17 – 275.4 ypg | #71 – 224.4 ypg |
| Total Offense | #15 – 448.9 ypg | #37 – 423.3 ypg |
| Scoring Offense | #24 – 33.9 ppg | #31 – 33.1 ppg |
| First Downs | #26 – 22.6/game | #36 – 22.0/game |
| Sacks Allowed | #92 – 30, 183 yards | #38 – 18, 136 yards |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed | #128 – 95, 365 yards | #30 – 57, 247 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #29 – 44.1% | #17 – 46.5% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #64 – 53.6%, 15/28 | #66 – 53.3%, 16/30 |
| Red Zone Attempts | #4 – 64 | #30 – 51 |
| Red Zone Offense | #92 – 81% / 66% | #110 – 78% / 67% |
| Long Run Plays | #45 -67/10, 28/20, 9/30, 6/40 | #22 – 78/10, 18/20, 9/30, 5/40 |
| Long Pass Plays | #6 – 152/10, 67/20, 28/30, 14/40 | #63 – 111/10, 47/20, 20/30, 12/40 |
| Long Punt Returns | #10 – 5/20, 2/30, 1/40 | #33 – 3/20, 2/30, 1/40 |
Defense
Statistic |
Texas |
Arizona State |
| Rushing Defense | #10 – 104.2 ypg | #28 – 117.5 ypg |
| Passing Defense | #2 – 156.9 ypg | #70 – 219.4 ypg |
| Total Defense | #3 – 261.1 ypg | #32 – 336.9 ypg |
| Scoring Defense | #2 – 13.3 ppg | #29 – 21.3 ppg |
| First Downs Allowed | #3 – 15.4/game | #84 – 20.5/game |
| Sacks | # 6 – 41, 293 yards | #87 – 21, 155 yards |
| Tackles for Loss | #6 – 102, 439 yards | #92 – 61, 231 yards |
| Third Down Conversions | #5 – 30.2% | #101 – 43.4% |
| Fourth Down Conversions | #33 – 46.7%, 14/30 | #44 – 50.0%, 11/22 |
| Red Zone Attempts | #4 – 31 | #31 – 36 |
| Red Zone Defense | #6 – 71% / 45% | #92 – 86% / 67% |
| Long Run Plays Allowed | #8 – 40/10, 4/20, 3/30, 3/40 | #57 – 54/10, 13/20, 3/30, 2/40 |
| Long Pass Plays Allowed | #3 – 121/10, 32/20, 10/30, 7/40 | #82 – 169/10, 44/20, 11/30, 5/40 |
Other
Statistic |
Texas |
Arizona State |
| Turnovers | #123 – 23 – 11F, 12I | #2 – 8 – 2F, 6I |
| Turnover Margin | #35 – 23:29 +6 | #6 – 22:8 +16 |
| Penalties | #108 – 87, 708 yards | #103 – 84, 701 yards |
*Based on total number of penalties.
Match-up Comparison
Texas Offense |
Arizona State Defense |
| Rushing Offense – 173.5 ypg | 117.5 ypg – Rushing Defense |
| Passing Offense – 275.4 ypg | 219.4 ypg – Passing Defense |
| Total Offense – 448.9 ypg | 336.9 ypg – Total Defense |
| Scoring Offense – 33.9 ppg | 21.3 ppg – Scoring Defense |
| First Downs – 22.6/game | 20.5/game – First Downs Allowed |
| 3rd Down Offense – 44.1% | 43.4% – 3rd Down Defense |
| 4th Down Offense – 53.6% | 50.0% – 4th Down Defense |
| Red Zone Offense – 81%/66% | 86%/67% – Red Zone Defense |
| LRP – 67/10, 28/20, 9/30, 6/40 | 54/10, 13/20, 3/30, 2/40 – LRP Allowed |
| LPP – 152/10, 67/20, 28/30, 14/30 | 169/10, 44/20, 11/30, 5/40 – LPP Allowed |
Texas Defense |
Arizona State Offense |
| Rushing Defense – 104.2 ypg | 198.9 ypg – Rushing Offense |
| Passing Defense – 156.9 ypg | 224.4 ypg – Passing Offense |
| Total Defense – 261.1 ypg | 423.3 ypg – Total Offense |
| Scoring Defense – 13.3 ppg | 33.1 ppg – Scoring Offense |
| First Downs Allowed – 15.4/game | 22.0/game – First Downs |
| 3rd Down Defense – 30.2% | 46.5% – 3rd Down Offense |
| 4th Down Defense – 46.7% | 53.3% – 4th Down Offense |
| Red Zone Defense – 71%/45% | 78%/67% – Red Zone Offense |
| LRP Allowed – 40/10, 4/20, 3/30, 3/40 | 78/10, 18/20, 9/30, 5/40 – LRP |
| LPP Allowed – 121/10, 32/20, 10/30, 7/40 | 111/10, 47/20, 20/30, 12/40 – LPP |
Explosive Plays
For my analysis, I am classifying any play over 20 yards as explosive. Many use any running play over 10 yards, which would change this quite a bit. But I like the 20+ methodology. Honestly, if I could find more detailed statistics, I would probably do run plays over 15 yards as the benchmark for explosive rushing plays.
| Texas | Arizona State | |
| EP Rushing | #10 –28/20, 9/30, 6/40, 3/50, 2/60, 1/70 | #50 – 18/20, 9/30, 5/40, 2/50, 0/60 |
| EP Passing | #3 – 67/20, 28/30, 14/40, 6/50, 1/60, 1/70 | #28 – 47/20, 20/30, 12/40, 9/50, 5/60 |
| Explosive Plays | #1 – 95/20, 37/30, 20/40, 9/50, 3/60, 2/70 | #27 – 65/20, 29/30, 17/40, 11/50. 5/60 |
| Texas | Arizona State | |
| EP Rushes Allowed | #1 –4/20, 3/30, 3/40, 1/50, 0 | #42 – 13/20, 3/30, 2/40, 1/50, 0 |
| EP Passes Allowed | #3 – 22/20, 7/30, 4/40, 0/50, 0 | #27 – 31/20, 8/30, 3/40, 1/50, 1/60, 1/70, 1/80 |
| EP Allowed | #2 – 32/20, 10/30, 7/40, 1/50, 0 | #27 – 44/20, 11/30, 5/40, 2/50, 1/60, 1/70, 1/80 |
Texas fell 8 spots in the explosive passing plays allowed, as the Horns gave up 6 passes over 20 yards to Klubnik and the Tigers.
BCF Toys
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | |
| Texas | No. 4: 1.27 | No. 17: 0.38 | No. 2: 0.85 | No. 38: 0.04 |
| ASU | No. 13: 0.81 | No. 6: 0.48 | No. 35: 0.32 | No. 80: -0.02 |
Clemson’s FEI was 0.81, OFEI was 0.41, and DFEI was 0.43.
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 2: 0.262 | No. 17: 0.567 | No. 1: 0.304 |
| ASU | No. 11: 0.143 | No. 8: 0.599 | No. 51: 0.456 |
Arizona State is better than Clemson and Georgia in NAY (Clemson, 0.153 & UGA was 0.101), better than Clemson in OAY (0.537), much worse DAY (Clemson was 0.385).
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 3: 1.94 | No. 15: 2.94 | No. 1: 1.00 |
| ASU | No. 14: 1.04 | No. 10: 3.12 | No. 48: 2.05 |
ASU ranked where Clemson was in NPD, No. 14 (1.14), higher in OPD (Clemson 26th at 2.80), and lower than Clemson DPD (Tigers were 20th, 1.66).
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 3: 2.40 | No. 17: 6.52 | No. 1: 4.11 |
| ASU | No. 22: 1.12 | No. 22: 6.44 | No. 37: 5.32 |
Texas is No. 2 in D4+, No. 1 in D7+, and No. 1 in D10+
Clemson was 18th at 1.28 NPP, 16th OPP at 6.55, and 32nd DPP, 5.27.
Possession Efficiency. Possession Efficiency (PVE) is unadjusted scoring value calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions (NP) in FBS vs. FBS games.
| PVE | OVE | DVE | SVE | |
| Texas | No. 5: 0.91 | No. 22: 0.21 | No. 2: 0.72 | No. 79: -0.01 |
| ASU | No. 11: 0.64 | No. 8: 0.43 | No. 44: 0.22 | No. 84: – 0.01 |
In BCF’s F+ ratings (Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings combined with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings), Texas is No. 3. Offensively, Texas is No. 11; defensively, Texas is No. 2. ASU is No. 21, No. 16 offense, No. 30 defense.
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Texas | ASU | .744 | 9.7 | 30.7 | 21.0 | 51.7 |
ESPN Analytics:
College Football Insiders:
Opponents & Records
Texas |
Arizona State |
| W – Colorado State, 52-0. 8-5 | W – Wyoming, 48-7. 3-9 |
| W– @ No. 10 Michigan, 31-12. 7-5 | W – Mississippi State, 30-23. 2-10 |
| W – UTSA, 56-7. 7-6 | W – @ Texas State, 31-28. 7-5 |
| W – Louisiana Monroe, 51-3. 5-7 | L – @ Texas Tech, 30-22. 8-5 |
| W – Mississippi State, 35-13. 2-10 | W – Kansas, 35-31. 5-7 |
| W – No. 18 Oklahoma, 34-3. 6-7 | W – No. 16 Utah, 27-19. 5-7 |
| L – No. 5 Georgia, 30-15. 11-2 | L – @ Cincinnati, 24-14. 5-7 |
| W – @ No. 25 Vanderbilt, 27-24. 7-6 | W – @ Oklahoma State, 42-21. 3-9 |
| W- Florida, 49-17. 8-5 | W – Central Florida, 35-31. 4-8 |
| W – @ Arkansas, 20-10. 7-6 | W – @ No. 16 Kansas State, 24-14. 9-4 |
| W – Kentucky, 31-14: 4-8 | W – No. 14 BYU, 28-23. 11-2 |
| W – @ No. 20 Texas A. and M., 17-7. 8-5 | W – @ Arizona, 49-7. 4-8 |
| L – No. 5 Georgia, 22-19. 11-2 | W – No. 16 Iowa State, 45-19. 11-3 |
| W – No. 16 Clemson, 38-24. 10-4 |
- Texas has five wins over ranked teams, and eight wins over teams with winning records (as of Monday).
- ASU has four wins over ranked teams, and four wins over teams with winning records.
Sam Leavitt (No. 10, 6-2, 200 lbs, freshman) is the outspoken Sun Devil quarterback. 49th in the nation with 221.9 yards per game. He has thrown for 2,663 yards and 24 touchdowns, with just 5 interceptions. 63.2% completion rate. 8.8 yards per attempt. 159.5 rating. His QBR is 81.6. He doesn’t run much, with just one rushing touchdown, and that came in the Big 12 Championship Game win.
Cam Skattebo (No. 4, 5-11, 215 lbs) is the heart, soul, and legs of the ASU offense. 5th in the nation in rushing with 130.67 yards per game. 1,568 yards, 19 touchdowns, averaging just under 6 yards per attempt. He carries the ball about 22 times per game. He is second in the nation in yards from scrimmage, with 172.8 ypg. He has 37 catches for 506 yards and 3 scores, averaging 6.9 yards per play, and he is the second leading receiver on the Sun Devils. He is 10th in the nation in long rushing plays – 41 over 10 yards, 11 over 20 yards, 7 over 30 yards, 4 over 40 yards, and 2 over 50 yards. He is explosive, and in overall long scrimmage plays ranked 5th in the country – 59 plays over 10, 19 over 20, 11 over 30, 6 over 40, 4 over 50, and 1 over 60 yards. According to ASU, he has rushed for a first down or a touchdown on about 33% of his carries this season. He makes defenders miss.
Jordyn Tyson is their leading receiver, and he is out with an injury. I include his game stats, because it shows how much offense they have lost with his injury. Their next most productive wide receiver is Xavier Guillory (No. 1, 6-2, 200 lbs senior). Guillory has 19 receptions all year, and 6 of those were in the loss to the Sand Aggies. Outside of the Lubbock loss, he is averaging 1.3 receptions per game. He does have 5 touchdowns, and both his catches against Iowa State were for touchdowns.
Chamon Metayer (No. 7, 6-4, 255 lbs Junior) is the ASU tight end. 29 catches for 290 yards and 5 touchdowns. He had 5-catch games against Texas State and Oklahoma State. 3 or fewer receptions in the rest of the games, and only 1 catch in 5 games.
| Arizona State | Key Stats |
| W – Wyoming, 78-7. | Leavitt – 14/22, 258 yds, 2 TDs, 192.1 RTG, 46.9 QBR
Skattebo – 11 runs, 49 yds, 1 TD, 1 rec, 17 yds Tyson – 4 catches, 49 yds |
| W – Mississippi State, 30-23. | Leavitt – 10/20, 69 yds, 79.0 RTG, 58.7 QBR
Skattebo – 33 runs, 262 yds, 3 rec, 35 yds Tyson – 2 catches, 7 yds |
| W – @ Texas State, 31-28. | Leavitt – 19/30, 246 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 136.5 RTG, 70.5 QBR
Skattebo – 24 runs, 62 yds, 2 TDs, 3 rec, 21 yds Tyson 6 catches, 120 yds, 1 TD |
| L – @ Texas Tech, 30-22. | Leavitt – 22/38, 282 yds, 1 INT, 115 RTG, 42.8 QBR
Skattebo – 18 runs, 60 yds, 2 TDs, 6 rec, 117 yds Tyson – 2 catches, 33 yds |
| W – Kansas, 35-31. | Leavitt – 14/24, 157 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 160 RTG, 78.2 QBR
Skattebo – 35 runs, 182 yds, 1 TD, 2 rec, 19 yds Tyson – 6 catches, 76 yds, 2 TD |
| W – No. 16 Utah, 27-19. | Leavitt – 11/18, 154 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 140.2 RTG, 87.7 QBR
Skattebo – 22 runs, 158 yds, 2 TDs, 4 rec, 41 yds Tyson – 5 catches, 84 yds, 1 TD |
| L – @ Cincinnati, 24-14. | Sims – 12/23, 155 yards, 108.8 RTG, 40.6 QBR
Skattebo – 17 runs, 75 yds, 2 TDs, 4 rec, 33 yds Tyson – 6 catches, 108 yds |
| W – @ Oklahoma State, 42-21. | Leavitt – 20/29, 304 yds, 3 TD, 191.2 RTG, 89.4 QBR
Skattebo – 22 runs, 153 yds, 1 TD, 4 rec, 121 yds, 2 TD Tyson – 8 catches, 81 yds, 1 TD |
| W – Central Florida, 35-31. | Leavitt – 16/25, 161 yds, 3 TD, 157.7 RTG, 66.1 QBR
Kyson Brown – 18 carries, 73 yds Tyson – 7 catches, 99 yds, 2 TD |
| W – @ No. 16 Kansas State, 24-14. | Leavitt – 21/34, 275 yds, 3 TD, 158.8 RTG, 94.4 QBR
Skattebo – 25 runs, 73 yds, 4 rec, 44 yds Tyson – 12 catches, 176 yds, 2 TD |
| W – No. 14 BYU, 28-23. | Leavitt – 16/25, 247 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 152.2 RTG, 80 QBR
Skattebo – 28 runs, 147 yds, 3 TD, 3 rec, 12 yds Tyson – 9 catches, 125 yds |
| W – @ Arizona, 49-7. | Leavitt – 17/22, 291 yds, 3 TD, 233.4 RTG, 97.5 QBR
Skattebo – 21 runs, 177 yds, 3 TD, 1 rec, 8 yds Tyson – 8 catches, 143 yds, 1 TD |
| W – No. 16 Iowa State, 45-19. | Leavitt – 12/17, 219 yards, 3 TD, 237 RTG, 99.1 QBR
Skattebo – 16 runs, 170 yds, 2 TD, 2 rec, 38 yds, 1 TD |
Leavitt has really stepped up in big games. Look at his QBR against Utah, K State, BYU, and Iowa State. Also, he hits a big pass play in about half his games. Here are his long passes in games: 68 yards, 52 yards, 66 yards, 50 yards, 61 yards, 59 yards, 63 yards.
In the last 3 games, Skattebo has run for 494 yards and 8 touchdowns.
The ASU defense is led by Myles Rowser (No. 4, 6-1, 185 lb junior DB), who has 93 tackles (47 solo), 1 sack, and 4 PD.
Xavion Alford (No. 2, 6 foot, 200 lbs junior DB from Pearland) has 82 tackles ((37 solo), 4 PD, and 2 interceptions.
Linebacker Caleb McCullough (No. 22, 6-2, 225 lb Senior) has 73 tackles (38 solo), 1 PD, and 2 interceptions.
Shamari Simmons (No. 7, 6 foot, 195 lbs senior DB, transfer from Austin Peay) has 69 tackles (36 solo), 3 PD, 1 interception, and 3 forced fumbles. And a targeting call in the Big 12 CG with Iowa State. Mr. Simmons will be sitting out the first half of the Peach Bowl. Texas needs to throw the ball.
Keith Abney (No. 1, 5-11, 185 lb DB from Waxahachie) has 50 tackles and leads ASU with 7 PD and 3 interceptions.
Clayton Smith (No. 10, 6-4, 240 lbs DL from Queen City, Texas) has 4 sacks for 40 yards, and Elijah O’Neal (No. 15, 6-3, 245 lbs DL) has 4 sacks for 25 yards.
The ASU stats have 3 place kickers in this year’s books. Ian Hershey is 7/12 in field goals, for 58.3% (1-3 30-39, 2-4, 40-49, and 0-1 longer than 50). Carston Kiefer is 1/2. Made one under 40, missed one over 40. Parker Lewis, who is 24/24 in extra points, is 1/3 in field goals, missing a 20+ yarder, and 1-2 between 40 and 49.
The official Game Notes from The University of Texas:
FB Game Notes – Arizona State (PDF) – University of Texas Athletics
TCT Thoughts
Turnovers, penalties, and Cam Skattebo. If Texas limits all three of those, the Horns win comfortably. Doing so will be a challenge.
Skattebo is the Sun Devils’ biggest offensive weapon. His ability to hit the hole, get to the second level, and shed tacklers is elite. He is motivated, playing with a chip on his shoulder since getting offers out of high school for William & Mary and Sacramento State. I assume his work ethic is elite as well, as he has just gotten better and better. First team All-American and All-Big 12, fifth in the Heisman voting.
Sam Leavitt is a heckuva quarterback especially for a freshman. One might ask who will catch his big passes with Tyson sidelined with injury. Well, Melquan Stovall has a 63 yard reception, Kyson Brown has a 68 yarder, Derek Eusebio has a 64 yard catch, and Malik McClain has a 43 yard catch. And Skattebo, a 66 yard catch. Lots of targets, just not the same level as Tyson. Leavitt will be throwing against a secondary that has the three highest graded defensive backs in the CFP, with Barron, Taaffe, and Mukuba. A tall task for the cocky freshman. Texas is No. 3 in interceptions (21, against only 7 touchdowns allowed [and 3 of those were thrown by Cade Klubnik 10 days ago). Texas is first in the nation in only allowing 5.4 yards per attempt. Second highest rated pass defense at 100.38. That pass defense has to be effective at all levels with Skattebo playing.
Looking at the redzone, Texas has been in the redzone 64 times and scored 42 touchdowns, ASU 51 times with 34 touchdowns. Defensively, Texas has allowed 31 redzone attempts and just 14 touchdowns, while ASU has allowed 36 attempts and surrendered 24 touchdowns.
Offensively, Texas will hopefully bring the same power, smashmouth rushing attack that they had against Clemson. Running the ball hard, and importantly protecting the ball. Arizona State is allowing 3.82 yards per rushing attempt. If Texas can stretch that just a little, that will go a long way toward assuring a Texas win.
Quinn Ewers. We need you Quinn. We need one of those solid 65% completion, hit your deep balls, don’t turn it over games. One would be really advantageous would be for the Longhorns to replicate that great first down passing attack they displayed against Clemson (see below). If Bond is back as reported, the Texas receiver arsenal is something that the Sun Devils just can’t match, and I don’t think they can stop us.
Perhaps the most important keys, and one of the biggest statistical advantages that ASU has, is turnover margin. Plus 16 versus plus 6 for Texas. And the delta in turnovers is huge. Not many games this year where there is any statistical category where the opponent was ranked No. 2 and Texas was No. 123. Note too in my Clemson review below that Texas has a propensity for another turnover that isn’t in that calculus – turnover on downs. I am concerned about that.
All things considered, Texas is the superior football team. ASU has some great athletes and Cam Skattebo is one of my very favorite players this season who isn’t a Longhorn. But this Texas team is loaded. The Longhorns just have to avoid mistakes. Penalties and turnovers.
I really like this matchup. Texas has a great opportunity to get out to an early lead, to play smart football, and force ASU to gamble and make uncharacteristic mistakes. PK needs to have his kids playing smart and containing Skattebo, but also watching for the Sun Devil who is going to have to step up. One will. Texas needs to be ready. They will be.
Texas rushes for 195 yards, Ewers throws for 262. Texas gets a defensive score.
Texas 41, Arizona State 21.
Longhorns in the Bowls
Texas is third all-time in bowl appearances (60), behind Alabama (77) and Georgia (62). A win in the Peach Bowl will make history, giving the Longhorns a win in all of the NY6 bowls.
Cotton Bowl: 22 games in Dallas, and a surprising 11-10-1 record. Some glorious wins and heartbreaking losses since the first game in 1943, when No. 11 Texas beat Georgia Tech 14-7. No. 1 Syracuse and Jim Brown beat No. 4 Texas 23-14 in 1960. In 1962, No. 3 Texas beat No. 5 Ole Miss 12-7. 1964, one of the great ones, when No. 1 Texas beat No. 2 Navy and Roger Staubach 28-6. 1970, No. 1 Texas 21-9 over No. 9 Notre Dame, but the 1971 No. 1 Longhorns lost to No. 6 Notre Dame 24-11. 1973, No. 7 Texas 17-13 over No. 14 Alabama. 1982, No. 6 Texas 14-12 over No. 3 Alabama. The heartbreaking 10-9 loss to No. 7 Georgia on January 2, 1984; a win would have given No. 2 Texas the national championship. 1991, the Miami game; I don’t like to talk about it.
Orange Bowl: 2-0. Beat No. 8 Georgia 41-28 on January 1, 1949. The 1965 Orange Bowl among the most famous, as No. 5 Texas upset No. Alabama and Bear Bryant and Joe Namath 21-17.
Sugar Bowl: 2-3. 1948, No. 5 Texas 27, No. 6 Alabama 7. 1958, No. 7 Ole Miss 39, Texas 7. 1995, loss to Virginia Tech. 2019, No. 14 Texas 28, No. 6 Georgia 21. Last year’s loss to Washington.
Rose Bowl: 2-0. Two of my top 5 sporting events ever. VY.
Fiesta Bowl: 1-1. 1997, No. 7 Penn State 38, No. 20 Texas 15. 2009, No. 3 Texas 24, No. 10 Ohio State 21.
Texas Longhorns vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
No. 3 Texas Longhorns 38, No. 16 Clemson Tigers 24
I could write a whole edition of the AHFD just on the Juan Heisman Tailgate Party we had and the Clemson game. In fact, that was the original plan. But between celebrating Christmas and closings, that didn’t come to fruition last week. So I am cranking this out late Monday night. A quick summary, some thoughts, and a couple of takeaways.
The game started in a bit of a concerning fashion, as Texas won and deferred (a surprise), and then Clemson took the kick-off and drove the ball 75 yards for a score. Klubnik carved up the defense on that drive, include a 13 yard pass to Moore, an 8 yard pass to Williams, a 9 yarder to Wesco, and a 6 yard pass for a first down to Briningstool, and he capped the drive with a 22 yard touchdown pass to Antonio Williams. 6:46 minute drive. 7-0 Clemson.
The Horns answered, fortunately, with a 6+ minute drive of their own. The first Texas drive was also full of explosive plays – Ewers to Helm for 13 yards, Ewers to Wingo for 13 yards, and to Wingo for 10 yards. With third and 10 on the Clemson 38, Quintrevion Wisner busted a big 22 yard run. Fourth and 1 at the Clemson 7, and Coach Sarkisian didn’t hesitate. Jerrick Gibson delivered, and on the next play Wisner punched it in to get the score even. 7-7.
The Texas defense forced a 3 and out. Sark went hard on the run, starting with decent field position at the Texas 35. Three Wisner runs for 20 yards, then a good play with Wingo to get fist and 10 and the Clemson 38. Huge, huge play for Jaydon Blue, as he broke through and took it to the house. 14-7 Texas.
Clemson’s next possession began with a 41 yard run that put the Tigers at the Texas 40. That was only the third run over 40 yards allowed by Texas all season. We better hope there isn’t one this Wednesday. Ethan Burke came up with a big sack of his fellow Chap, and with 3rd and 16, the Texas defense held.
The Longhorns’ third possession began at the Texas 13. After getting a couple of first downs, Ewers and Golden connected on a beautiful pass for 43 yards down to the Clemson 28; the pump fake was nice, and how did Golden hold on to that? Wisner for 6 yards, for 6 more yards, and then 16 yards for six points. 21-7 Texas. DKR started to get that “blow-out let’s party” feel.
When Colin Simmons picked the tipped Klubnik pass out of the air 3 plays later, and Texas got the ball on the Clemson 26, that feeling was mighty strong. Texas was almost assuredly going to go up by three scores. But with fourth and 1 on the Clemson 17, Sark went for it and Blue lost a yard. Turnover on downs. No points.
After a great three and out by the defense, Texas got the ball near mid-field. Another opportunity to create separation and crush the Clemson soul. But Ewers was picked off, and Clemson turned that into points, with a 32 yard field goal. It could have been a Pick 6 and a much different game but for the illegal blind-side block leveled on Jake Majors (and correctly called). Kudos to the defense for limiting the damage after the turnover.
Ewers still had the hot hand when Texas got the ball back with 93 seconds in the half. 21 yards pass to Blue, 7 yard Blue run, and on third and 3 a rare Quinn Ewers run for 11 yards to the Clemson 26. A huge play, and one we needed (and will need again) from Quinn. 7 yard pass to DeAndre Moore, Jr. set the Horns up at the Clemson 19. A beautiful throw and beautiful catch by Gunnar Helm put the Horns up 28-10.
Same play, different angles. Look closely at the first one, and you will find something cool.
Texas got the ball to start the second half, and thank goodness we actually scored points in the third quarter. A decent drive, with a 14 yard pass to Helm and a 19 yard Wisner run to the Clemson 5. Texas stalled at the 2, as neither Manning nor Gibson could get any push. With fourth and goal at the 4, Sark wisely chose to take the points and put Texas up 31-10. Thank you Coach!
The teams traded possessions and punts. On Clemson’s second possession in the third quarter, Cade Klubnik started throwing dimes. 28 yards to Briningstool and then a 25 yard touchdown pass to Jarvis Green, and in 65 seconds it was back to a 2 score game. 31-17.
The third quarter mystery remains unsolved. Texas answered with a 39 yard drive that ended with another turnover on downs at the Clemson 36. I don’t doubt Coach Sarkisian’s football genius, but the phrase “outsmart yourself” exists because it can happen.
Dabo and Klubnik and the Tigers took advantage of the turnover. A 10 play, 64 yard drive. Klubnik again carved up the Texas secondary. We did not see anything like this all year. He had a 12 yard pass to Moore, and 19 yard pass to Williams, Cade scrambled for 11 (fortunately, his longest run of the day), and a 7 yard touchdown pass to Moore. 31-24. Wonder what the result might have been if that drive had started, say, inside the Clemson 15 after a pooch punt.
Texas got the ball with 11:43 to play, with a long field, as Golden’s decision to return the kick started the Horns at their own 17. My thought was “8 minute, 83 yard drive”. Jaydon Blue had a better idea. Rip the Tigers with a 77 yard touchdown run. 38-24 Texas.
Clemson kept fighting. Klubnik drove the Tigers down the field. A 29 yard and 30 yard passes to Moore and it was first down Clemson at the Texas 10. A roughing the passer call made it first and goal at the Texas 5. No problem. Another magnificent goal line stand, punctuated with an exclamation point as big Bill Norton slammed the door shut on Clemson.
Texas did a decent job of getting the ball out, aided by a pass interference call. Blue with a big third down catch moved the chains and got the clock down to 5 minutes. On third and 7, Gibson busted a 21 yard run into Clemson territory. The Tiger defense finally stiffened after having surrendered a couple hundred yards. But on Fourth and 1 at the Clemson 40, up 2 scores, Sark went for it again. Manning lost 3 yards and fumbled (on the snap, but recovered it). Turnover on downs.
With 93 seconds left the game was probably over, but not guaranteed. Klubnik’s first pass was for 27 yards to Briningstool to get the Tigers to the Texas thirty. The defense really stepped up, and Cade’s last three passes were incomplete. The Clemson season ended on the Texas 26 yard line.
A lot to unpack. It was a great win. The Longhorns played hard-nosed, tough offense with one of the best rushing games in years. Blue, Wisner, Gibson, and Ewers all had explosive running plays. 292 yards rushing against a team that was only giving up 150.5 yards per game is very good.
The passing game aided that strong rushing attack. Texas threw the ball on first down: 13 yards to Helm, 13 yards to Wingo, 9 yards to Bolden, 43 yards to Golden, 7 yards to Moore, 9 yards to Helm, 14 yards to Helm, 16 yards to Helm, 6 yards to Golden. That is nine big first down passes, and five of them went for more than 10 yards. That is stellar play-calling and execution, and it kept Clemson on their heels.
Quinn Ewers played a great game. 17/24 (70.8%) for 202 yards and a score. The interception was on a pass to Moore that he could have and should have caught.
Texas converted 50% of their third downs, Clemson only 25%.
The Texas defense did give up 3 touchdown passes, after surrendering only 4 all season. But the Tigers only rushed for 76 yards, and once again that inside the 5 yard line defense is a brick wall, with the cornerstone being a 6’6” 335 pound (or more) rock named Bill Norton from Christian Brothers in Memphis, Tennessee.
Texas only had two penalties. We were averaging 6.5 penalties per game. Sark said they were going to clean that up, and they did. A big hat tip for that. Much needed, and that needs to continue in Atlanta.
Highlights from ESPN, under 17 minutes:
Highlights from Bleacher Report, about 6 minutes
I had Texas winning 38-20. Not bad.
College Football Playoff Rankings
ESPN College Football Power Index
ESPN’s analytics have Texas with a 47.3% chance of making the championship game and a 27.5% chance of winning it all (highest, by 7.5 points).
2024 College Football Power Index – ESPN
ESPN SP+ from Bill Connelly
Arizona State is ranked 29th, with a Rating of 10.8, Offense of 32.7 (35th), Defense of 19.9 (26th), and Special Teams of 131 (-2.1).
Juan Heisman Tailgate
The eighth JHT party of the 2024 season was an epic prelude to a great afternoon and evening at the game. The Frito pies were perfect, the San Pedro venison sausage (thanks Jefe!) was dang good, and Rose Marie’s queso and salsa rounded out a classic JHT food pyramid. Plus the beer brats and Rick Whiteley’s dove. We appreciate Tito’s Handmade Vodka and Twin Liquors. We drank all the beer Texas Beer Co. brought from Taylor – Grazie Cosimo! It was quite a pachanga.
Lots of friends – a great afternoon of fellowship. I have a lot more photos in the online edition, but a few special ones from Saturday. Please send any photos you might have from the 2024 season at JHT for the 2024 album.
Claudia’s gang. Love these girls. another one:
Some Great Americans. at JHT Lifetime Longhorn Byrd Baggett, Retired Lt. General Lawson Magruder, U.S. Army, and Ret. Colonel Frank Cox, U.S. Army. 
Tyler men. Uncle Buck and Clay McPhail.
TCT, KMT, CAT. 🧡
Over 60 years of friendship. Blessed.
Kathy and Sarah Jane Edelman and David “Uncle Buck” Edelman. It was large.
College Football Playoff Quarterfinals
The first ever first round of FBS playoff games on campuses was, in my opinion, a huge success. The whiners who are carping about the home team’s dominance, questioning the teams in the field, etc. – get over it. We have a real tournament, finally. And I am grateful. Is it really that surprising that the higher ranked and higher seed teams won?
The Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 9 Boise State Broncos
I so wish this would be a close, fun game. I have a feeling Penn State may figure out a way to contain Ashton Jeanty. They will have to, as he has rushed for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns. PSU is No. 7 nationally, allowing just 100.36 yards per game and 7 rushing touchdowns this season. Indiana was the best rush defense in the nation (about 80 ypg), and they gave up 193 to Notre Dame. Boise is the No. 61 defense, PSU is No. 4. I suspect the bookies and models have it right. I think the Nittany Lions win this 38-24.
Penn State favored by 11.5, over/under is 53.5, and the money lines are PSU -450, Boise +340.
BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Penn State | Boise State | .808 | 12.8 | 34.5 | 21.6 | 56.1 |
No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks
4:00 p.m. on ESPN. from The Rose Bowl. Pretty cool to see the quasi Pac 12/Big 10 matchup. In October, the Ducks and Buckeyes played a classic game in Eugene, with Oregon getting a late field goal to secure the 32-31 victory. QBs Dillon Gabriel and Will Howard, both Big 12 escapees, dueled heroically: Gabriel 23/34 for 341 yards and 2 scores, Howard 28/35 for 326 yards and 2 TDs. In hindsight, one of the keys to the Duck win was the first quarter Ohio State fumble, that gave the Ducks a short field (28 yard line), and they scored in 2 plays. Bizarrely, Lanning and Oregon went for 2, and failed. Also, OSU 8 penalties for 70 yards, Oregon 3 for 25. A close game between two excellent football teams, and the team with the mistakes lost by a point. Note this. Ducks 496 yards of offense, Ohio State 467.
Ohio State is favored by 2.5, over/under is 55.5, and the money lines are Buckeyes minus 130, Ducks plus 110. Barring a career game from Dillon Gabriel, I think Ohio State wins, 34-31.
BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Ohio State | Oregon | .647 | 5.4 | 29.7 | 24.3 | 54.0 |
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs
7:45 p.m. on ESPN from the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. Irish are 12-1, Bulldogs 11-2. Beck is out, so Gunnar Stockton will be playing for Georgia. A great match-up, with the Bulldogs 1 point favorites (line opened with Notre Dame favored by 1.5). The over/under is 44.5, and the money lines are Irish EVEN, Georgia minus 120. I say Irish win 30-27.
BCF:
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Notre Dame | Georgia | .690 | 5.3 | 26.4 | 21.0 | 47.4 |
Arizona State University
Arizona State started as Territorial Normal School back in 1885, as a teachers’ college. It is now one of the largest public universities in the country. Over 70,000 students at the Tempe campus (~ 58,000 undergrad).
| Academic Rankings | ||
| National | ||
| Texas | Arizona State | |
| Forbes | 46 | 106 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 30 | 121 |
| ARWU | 25 | |
| Washington Monthly | 98 | 33 |
| THE | 21 | |
| QS | 19 | |
| Global | ||
| ARWU | 45 | |
| QS | 66 | 200 |
| THE | 50 | 182 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 56 | 179 |
Famous alumni include, most importantly, Pat Tillman. Also Phil Mickelson, Reggie Jackson, Barry Bonds, James Harden. Dustin Pedroia, Jake Plummer, and Danny White. John Rahm. Some great entertainers, including Steve Allen, Jimmy Kimmel, Linda Ronstadt, Nick Nolte, Lynda Carter, and David Spade. One of my favorite sports casters, Al “Do you believe in miracles?” Michaels.
College Football Playoff Opening Round
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 27, No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers 17
The Irish took care of business against the Hoosiers. Riley Leonard was a solid 23/32 for 201 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, 1 interception. Jeremiyah Love had a 98 yard touchdown run, as Notre Dame had 193 yards on the ground. 14 of Indiana’s points came in the fourth quarter, too late, as Hoosiers netted only 63 yards on the ground.
No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions 38, No. 10 Southern Methodist Mustangs 10
I expected more of a game from the Ponies, but when you throw two pick-6s in the first 17 minutes of a game, odds are things will not go well. Thus it went for Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs. It was going to be a hard game anyway and gifting the Nittany Lions 14 points was fatal. Jennings threw another interception in the second quarter than was converted to a touchdown. Penn State looked very, very good. Guess all the James Franklin naysayers will have to wait another week to see their negative prophecy fulfilled.
No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes 42, No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers 9
Ohio State won comfortably, and this was really the only ugly blow-out. Thousands of Volunteer fans were in the Horseshoe in person to witness the beating. Will Howard was 24/29 for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 pick. 98.8 QBR. TreVeyon Henderson rushed for 80 yards and two scores, and Quinshon Judkins ran for 2 more. The Buckeye defense shutdown Nico Iamaleava, who was 14/31 for 104 yards.
Other Bowl Games of Note
The bowl schedule and my schedule didn’t match-up very well, so I never really got a good bowl season preview. A few games of note, and the results of some good ones.
Tuesday December 31
No. 11 Alabama (9-3) vs. Michigan (7-5), 11:00 a.m. on ESPN in the ReliaQuest Bowl. A great match between two of the sports bluebloods. Crimson Tide favored by 15.5.
Louisville (8-4) vs. Washington (6-6), 1:00 p.m. on CBS from El Paso, the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl. Louisville favored by -0.5.
No. 14 South Carolina (9-3) vs. No. 20 Illinois (9-3), 2:00 p.m. on ABC, the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Gamecocks favored by 9.5.
Baylor (8-4) vs. Louisiana State (8-4), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN, Kinder’s Texas Bowl. Bears are 3.5 point favorites.
Thursday January 2
Duke (9-3) vs. No. 14 Ole Miss, 6:30 p.m. on ESPN, the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. Rebels favored by 17. Hotty Toddy!
Friday January 3
North Texas (6-6) vs. Texas State (7-5), 3:00 p.m. on ESPN, the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl. Big game for Coach Eric Morris! Good luck. Bobcats favored by 13.5.
FCS Championship – Monday January 6, Toyota Stadium in Frisco.
North Dakota State (13-2) v. Montana State (15-0). The Bison are seeking their 10th national championship in the last 15 years. Incredible. The Grizz favored by 3.
Bowl Results
No. 22 Army 27, Louisiana Tech 6 in the Independence Bowl. Black Knights finish a great season at 12-2.
Navy beat the Land Thieves 21-20 in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. Great season for the Midshipmen, 9-3. Land Thieves finish 6-7 for their second losing season in the last 3 years. Tis a pity.
Southern Cal rallied with 21 points in the fourth quarter to beat Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 35-31 in the Las Vegas Bowl. Aggies finish 8-5.
Arkansas beat the Sand Aggies 39-26 in the Liberty Bowl. I-40 to I-30 to I-20 to U.S. Hwy. 84.
Vanderbilt knocked off Georgia Tech 35-27 in the Birmingham Bowl.
Miami Redhawks 43, Colorado State 17 in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl. Great season for Miami, who finish 9-5.
No. 18 Iowa State 42, No. 13 Miami (Florida) 41 in the Pop Tarts Bowl. Cam Ward broke a record and sat out the second half. Not fond of that.
No. 17 Brigham Young 36-14 over No. 23 Colorado in the Valero Alamo Bowl. 5 interceptions in the game. Travis Hunter is a great football player. Well deserving of the Heisman Trophy.
Texas Christian beat the boudin out of the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, 34-3, in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl.
Nebraska 20-15 over Boston College, Pinstripe Bowl. GBR.
Texas Longhorns Men’s Basketball
The Longhorns are 11-2, with a 77-53 win over Northwestern State on Sunday. Texas opens SEC play Saturday night in College Station against No. 13 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical, 7:00 p.m. on the SEC Network. If you have not been paying close attention, the Southeastern Conference is super strong in basketball this year. Rick Barnes and his Volunteers are ranked first, four other SEC teams in the Top 10, and five more ranked in the Top 25. Going to be a heck of season in the league.
Texas Longhorns Women’s Basketball
Coach Vic Shaefer’s team is off to another great start, 12-1 and ranked No. 5 in the AP. Madison Booker is leading the team with 16.5 points per game (and shooting 54.2% from 3). Great to have Rori Harmon back – 6.5 assists per game, 2.8 steals per game, The Longhorns start SEC play on the road in Norman Thursday night against the Land Thieves. 8:00 p.m. on ESPN2.
Texas One
The Texas One Fund is the official NIL collective that supports The University of Texas athletics. Texas One provides opportunities to Longhorns use their name, image, and likeness to promote charitable causes. Contributions to Texas One now count toward your Longhorn Foundation loyalty points. It is critically important to support Texas One and NIL for Longhorns. Consider a monthly donation. It makes a difference.
Music
An eclectic collection to end 2024 and welcome 2025.
First, “The Weight”, from Playing for Change, which has over the years elicited more responses than just about anything else I have included in my musings.
Take Five, The Dave Brubeck Quartet.
Money for Nothing, Dire Straits. One of my favorite guitar riffs ever.
New San Antonio Rose, Bob Wills & His Texas Playboys
I Walk the Line, Johnny Cash
Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony. A magnificent work. This version is Leonard Bernstein conducting at the Berlin Celebration Concert in 1989, on Christmas Day.
If you want to fast forward to Ode to Joy, start here:
Quotes of the Week
I may have had this one before, but I think it is especially important as we enter a new year. From Pastor Voddie Baucham:
“It has been said that holding on to unforgiveness is like drinking poison while hoping the other person dies.”
From Sir Winston Churchill:
“We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.”
Jim Nicar
Starting in 1891, UT Austin’s James Clark, who served as librarian, registrar, bursar, academic counselor, and groundskeeper – all at once! – personally financed an annual Christmas dinner for students unable to get home.
The University’s Guardian Angel: https://bit.ly/2YQGRo7
From Jim’s Post on December 23, 2024.
Follow Jim on X
Picture of the Week
From JType’s Instagram Post on December 29, 2024
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Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371