Good Morning Longhorn Fans!
I think Bevo is excited about the season!
No. 3 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 10 Michigan Wolverines
The Longhorns head to Ann Arbor for one of the marquee match-ups of the 2024 season. Two of the true bluebloods of college football. Michigan, the all-time leader in wins with 1,005 in 145 years, Texas with 949 in 131 years. And this will only be the second time the Longhorns and Wolverines have played. Y’all know the first. This link should start you at the right moment.
Here is the link for the full 18 minute video of the highlights:
Texas is coming off of a dominating opening win over the Colorado State Rams, while Michigan beat Fresno State 30-10 in a less than dominant opener.
Coach Sherrone Moore is now 2-0 as a head coach. Bout to be 2-1.
The game will kick off in the Big House at 12:00 noon Ann Arbor time. This is the FOX Big Noon Kickoff game. Gus Johnson with the play-by-play, Joel Klatt with analysis, and Jenny Taft on the sideline. You can listen to the game around world on the Longhorn Radio Network. On the Flagship in Austin, KVET 1300 AM and 98.1 FM and 103.1 FM. In Abilene on KWKC 1340. In the Metroplex on KRLD 1080 AM, and Fort Stockton on KFST 860 AM.
The spread was bouncing around Texas minus 3 last week. Sunday it was Texas at minus 6.5 and an over/under of 44.5. Late Thursday night as I write it is Texas by 7.5 points, a total of 42.5, and the money lines are Texas -290 and Michigan +240.
For all my Michigan friends and other Wolverines who might be reading: I like Michigan. We have more in common than you might imagine. We have a unifying force: Almost all of us hate (or at least harbor an intense dislike for) The Ohio State University. A few friends from Ohio who like the Buckeyes and talk about “that school up north”, but a distinct minority.
This promises to be a great football game, and I am excited that Texas and Michigan are playing this game. We need more games like this (and like Southern Cal vs. Louisiana State and like Notre Dame vs. Texas Agricultural & Mechanical) early in the season.
Editor’s Note
After a good deal of thought, I have made some changes to the Austin Horns Fan Dispatch email edition. First, I have cut back and revamped the review of the prior week’s Texas game. I still have some notes on it, still have some information. Your feedback on that is welcome. That may vary from game to game and week to week. Second, I have included fewer pictures in the email edition and added some in the online edition, especially photos from the Juan Heisman Tailgate. Third, I have eliminated the review of last week’s games (other than SEC and the service academies) from the email edition. That is still in the online version.
One other note: This year, I am using embedded hyperlinks much more. So depending on the platform you are using to read this, it may be harder to see the embedded hyperlinks. I have highlighted some of them this week.
No. 4 Texas Longhorns 52, Colorado State – zero nada zilch
What an opening game. The Texas Longhorns exceeded my hopes and expectations and has me even more excited about the season than I was before the game. If that is even possible.
Highlights in Español. ¡Simplemente significa más!
https://x.com/TexasFootball/status/1831443934754828426
Official highlight video from the Longhorn Network:
Texas Football vs Colorado State Highlights (longhornnetwork.com)
The pass from Ewers to Golden at the 1:10 mark was his second best pass of the game. The no look pass at about 1:48 was just sick.
Another clip of the pass to Golden:
https://x.com/orangebloods_/status/1829982409192079463
I gotta fever. And the only prescription is more Gunnar.
The Monday Morning Highlights, on X and Instagram:
https://x.com/TexasFootball/status/1830590873547210786
$1.8 million dollars well spent!
HAAM
Normally, I put my featured charity toward the end of the newsletter. This week is different. This week, I am highlighting the Health Alliance for Austin Musicians for two reasons.
First, HAAM has been part of my life since 2007, when I chaired the second HAAM Day at the request of my friend and the founder of HAAM, the late Robin Shivers. I was fortunate to get my good friend, Mayor Will Wynn (a very good Aggie!) involved, and he really helped us spread the word and elevate HAAM in the Austin business community. That started a journey that continues to this day.
Second, I am humbled that so often people say “Tim, you need to charge for this!” This newsletter is for fun, not for profit. But, I do want my readers to try and support the charities I feature. These are not random. Each week, it is a cause that is important. There are a lot of you reading this. Even a small donation from half of you would make a big impact. Your support is most appreciated. This is a link to my fundraising page. Special thanks to my friends who donated last year. Debbie & John, Jay, Carlotta & Bill, Joanie, George, Al, Trey, Stevie Ray, Becky, Tammy, Susan, Ian, McKinnon, Sam, Kari, Samuel, Karen, Little Joe, Mike, Angie, Brenda, Wick, Tracy, Luke, Doug, Amy & Robert, Kevin, Jake, Bobby, Lenora, Marilyn, Patti & Curtis, Michael – thanks. And if I missed someone – don’t think it isn’t appreciated. I am just not a great record keeper.
HAAM Day 2024 (charityengine.net)
HAAM Day 2024 is Tuesday, September 24. It is a fun day, filled with live music from early, early in the morning until late Tuesday night. So find some time that day to go listen to music, and help keep Austin music alive and well!
More on HAAM:
HAAM provides access to affordable healthcare services for Austin’s low-income, working musicians, with a focus on wellness and prevention. Since 2005, HAAM has helped more than 7,000 musicians access over $190 million dollars in healthcare services – including insurance, premium assistance, basic healthcare, specialty care, mental health, dental care, hearing, vision, wellness, and basic needs. Through HAAM’s partnerships, every dollar you donate is leveraged into $7 worth of healthcare services.
No. 3 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 10 Michigan Wolverines
Before taking a look at the game, a memory. In December 2004, when news came that Texas would play Michigan in the Rose Bowl, my father Glenn soon called. He wanted to take Charles, Kathy, and me to Los Angeles to the Rose Bowl. Born in 1933, Glenn’s generation grew up at time when there were only a few bowls, most if not all on New Year’s Day, and none bigger than the Granddaddy, the Rose Bowl. It was a wonderful trip, 3 generations, a great game, and I will never forget the tears streaming down my father’s face when Texas won. It was one of the highlights of his life.
That night, Kathy and I went to dinner at Mastro’s. Waiting for our table, in came Braylon Edwards with his crew. Young Braylon Edwards, coming off a bitter, last-second defeat, could not have been more pleasant, more respectful, more cool. I became a fan, and my long time respect for Michigan was doubled, or more.
So, for almost 21 years, I have looked forward to a rematch, and to this game since it was announced. The Big House is one of the iconic venues not only in college football, but in all American sports. (Thanks for the article Gary.) Of note from the article, since 1970, Michigan Stadium has welcomed 12 top 10 non-conference teams. The Wolverines are 7-5. Five of those games were against Notre Dame (UM 3-2). And the biggest beating they have administered in 54 years? The 41-3 whipping of No. 5 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical in 1977.
You will note that some of the rankings below from Winsipedia do not align with mine above. Different websites and sources count different teams’ wins and losses differently. And their ranking us at #8 doesn’t even coincide with their own all-time wins rankings (which is consistent with mine – Texas and Notre Dame tied for fourth).
This Saturday, a little after 12 o’clock noon Eastern time, none of the history, no one’s pedigree, no rankings, nothing will matter. Two great programs will play for just the second time.
With only one game to look at for previewing, comparing, and predicting, it is hard to dive deep. But we do know a lot about what Michigan did last year, we know it is a great football program which has been running hot under Jim Harbaugh with phenomenal defense. And we are playing in Michigan Stadium, where the Wolverines are riding a 23 winning streak.
Michigan’s defense was the best in the nation last year, and I think they will be among the very best this year. A refresher on the 2023 defense:
- 1 in Total Defense: 247 yards per game. The underlying numbers: in 15 games, 1,350 yards rushing, 2355 yards passing. 3,705 yards in 865 plays, 4.28 yards per play. Texas was No. 35, allowing 336.7 yards per game)
- 1 in Scoring Defense: 10.4 points per game. 17 touchdowns allowed in 15 games. 13 field goals. (Texas was No. 15, allowing 18.9 ppg)
Some other defensive stats comparisons from 2023:
| Category |
Texas Defense |
Michigan Defense |
||
| Value | Rank | Value | Rank | |
| Passing Defense | 254.4 ypg | 116 | 157.0 ypg | 2 |
| Rush Defense | 82.4 ypg | 3 | 90.0 ypg | 6 |
| 1st Downs | 17.7/g | 25 | 13.3/g | 1 |
| 3rd Down | 26.55% | 2 | 29.08% | 7 |
| Interceptions | 1.14/g | 10 | 1.20/g | 3 |
Some offensive stats comparisons from 2023:
Category |
Texas Offense |
Michigan Offense |
||
| Value | Rank | Value | Rank | |
| Scoring Offense | 35.8 ppg | 15 | 35.9 ppg | 14 |
| Total Offense | 477.5 ypg | 9 | 382.7 ypg | 69 |
| Passing | 289.1 ypg | 17 | 213.7 ypg | 82 |
| Rush | 188.4 ypg | 25 | 169.1 ypg | 55 |
| 1st Downs | 23.1/g | 20 | 19.9/g | 73 |
| 3rd Down | 38.38% | 70 | 242.77% | 40 |
Last week against Fresno State, Michigan’s defense allowed 9 yards rushing. Not a typo. 9 yards net, 39 gross, the Bulldog QB lost 30 yards. Passed for 235 and a score, but Michigan picked him off twice. Fresno State was 2 for 11 on third down. Josaiah Stewart (#0, 6-1, 245, D end, Senior) led UM with 5 tackles and 2 sacks. Rayshaun Benny (#26, 6-4, 296, D line, Senior) had 5 tackles and a sack. Makari Paige (#7, 6-4, 208, D back, Senior) had 5 tackles.
The Michigan defense’s front 6 is as good as any in the country. Big Mason Graham (#55, 6-3, 320) is one of their best lineman, and their nose tackle Kenneth Grant (#78, 6-3, 339) is going to be handful for Majors and the guards.
Michigan’s offense was not quite as stout. The offensive line is new (still good, but all new starters). They weren’t great against Fresno State last week – gave up a sack and 4 TFL.
Texas Homer:
Joel Klatt. A lot of praise for Sark and for Quinn:
Advanced Stats Preview from Nik Patel on Burnt Orange Nation:
The College Football Insiders analytics shows a very close, low scoring game.
BCF Toys
FEI Ratings. FEI Overall Ratings (FEI), Offense Ratings (OFEI), Defense Ratings (DFEI), and Special Teams Ratings (SFEI) are opponent-adjusted data representing the scoring advantage per possession a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team’s schedule of opponents (ELS), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule (GLS), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule (ALS). Mean Wins are the sum of individual game win likelihoods for all regular season games including games against FCS opponents (Total) and against FBS opponents only (FBS).
| FEI | OFEI | DFEI | SFEI – Adj | SFEI-Unadj | |
| Texas | No. 6: 1.03 | No. 10: 0.39 | No. 9: 0.54 | No. 2: 0.11 | No. 12: 0.18 |
| Michigan | No. 40: 0.29 | No. 51: – 0.08 | No. 24: 0.73 | No. 1: 0.12 | No. 4: 0.33 |
Available Yards Percentage. Net available yards percentage (NAY) is the difference between offensive available yards percentage (OAY) and opponent offensive available yards percentage (DAY) on non-garbage, regulation possessions in FBS vs. FBS games. Available yards percentage is calculated by dividing drive yards (measured from starting field position to ending field position) by available yards (measured from starting field position to end zone).
| NAY | OAY | DAY | |
| Texas | No. 2: 0.621 | No. 5: 0.790 | No. 4: 0.169 |
| Michigan | No. 34: 0.037 | No. 48: 0.386 | No. 23: 0.349 |
BCF Toys – 2024 Available Yards Percentage
Net points per drive (NPD). NPD is the difference between points scored per offensive drive (OPD) and points allowed per opponent offensive drive (DPD).
| NPD | OPD | DPD | |
| Texas | No. 1: 4.75 | No. 2: 4.75 | No. 1: 0.0 |
| Michigan | No. 25: 1.30 | No. 36: 2.30 | No. 16: 1.00 |
BCF Toys – 2024 Points Per Drive
Net Yards Per Play (NPP). Net yards per play (NPP) are the difference between drive yards per offensive play (OPP) and drive yards allowed per opponent offensive play (DPP) on non-garbage, regulation possessions in FBS vs. FBS games. Drive yards are calculated as the difference between starting field position and ending field position on offensive drives.
| NPP | OPP | DPP | |
| Texas | No. 3: 5.13 | No. 8: 7.90 | No. 5: 2.76 |
| Michigan | No. 45: -0.65 | No. 55: 4.43 | No. 33: 5.08 |
BCF Toys – 2024 Yards Per Play
BCF’s Game Projection. “Game Projections are calculated from current FEI ratings and include the projected win likelihood (PW), projected margin of victory (PM), projected points scored (PF) and allowed (PA), and projected total points scored (PT) for each FBS game.”
| Projected Winner | Projected Loser | PW | PM | PF | PA | PT |
| Michigan | Texas | .677 | 6.7 | 28.2 | 21.6 | 49.8 |
Mysterious to me to look at all the other stats and for their analytics to project Michigan wo win by a touchdown. And odd that it is the flip of ESPN’s analytics.
TCT Thoughts
Texas went to Tuscaloosa last year in the second game of the season, facing the Saban coached No. 3 Crimson Tide in a night game. Texas played a great game, Quinn Ewers lit up the vaunted Bama defense, and the Longhorns got a huge road win with only 120 yards of rushing and 1 touchdown on the ground. Brooks was our leading rusher with 57, and 14 of that came on one run.
This game is remarkably similar. Alabama and Michigan are in the top 3 of all key all-time records – wins, winning percentage, and national championships. I think the result is also going to be remarkably similar.
No question, Michigan still has an elite defense. Texas has an elite offense. And while Texas did end up with decent rushing numbers last week (190), 67 of that game from Jerrick Gibson with the game decided. If I have a concern, it is our ability to run the ball against this Big Blue defense. Our quarterbacks are the best, but in a physical road game, I don’t think we can afford to be one dimensional. Quinn will take a pounding. Sark is going to have come up with some schemes and plays to move the ball on the ground. The cost of losing CJ Baxter may really be evident on Saturday. Nothing against Blue and Quintrevion Wisner – I think they are very good running backs – but we really might have been a different team with Baxter and Blue as our one-two punch. We shall see.
As for our pass attack, I feel pretty good about the probability of Ewers and the receiving corps being able to put up numbers and points. Quinn is going to have be extra careful with the ball. Turnovers in a road game like this could be really damaging. But we saw the extraordinary skills (or at least some of them) that Quinn Ewers has when it comes to throwing a football, and those skills can win games against anyone. Even Big Blue in the Big House.
I am much more confident about the Longhorns’ defense that I was this time last week. Certainly, the Michigan Wolverines are an entirely different animal than the Colorado State Rams, but the most important pieces of the offense from last year’s national championship team have moved on. Their top two receivers (with top 10 names), Roman Wilson and Corn Dog Johnson, are playing on Sundays. That was 74% of the Wolverine pass reception last year. New faces under a new coach. At quarterback, Davis Warren (15/25, 118 yards, 1 TD, 1 pick last week) will be competent. If he exceeds base core competency, Michigan will stay close. The other QB, Alex Orji, is a big kid (6-3, 235) from Sachse, Texas. He only threw 2 passes and just one completion against Fresno State, but he was the Wolverine’s second leading rusher with 32 yards on 5 carries. Mr. Hill needs to be on his toes all the time, especially when No. 10 is in the game. Warren and Orji combined are not quite J.J. McCarthy. But they are a QB tandem that could provide a test for the Texas D.
Blake Corum was an exceptional running back for Michigan last year. 1,245 yards rushing, 27 touchdowns. Kalel Mullings (No. 20, 6-2, 235 lbs, Senior) only had 36 carries for 222 yards last year (one score). He got 92 yards last week on 15 carries. The other UM RB is Donovan Edwards (No. 7, 6-1, 212, Senior). Two good sized men running behind a big and good offensive line. I think we may look back later in the season and be thankful we played the Wolverines in the second game.
I have struggled with this one. I think Texas can win. I don’t think it will be easy. All the talk of how much talent left for the NFL, a key injury, Coach Harbaugh gone. It is still Michigan. On the other hand, they were pretty good when we beat them 20 years ago.
What has me a little concerned is the BCF projection. I just can’t see why that margin in Michigan’s favor is so far off from most of the pundits (most seem to be picking Texas).
I ended up with this: We are going to score fewer points than I originally thought, Michigan is going to score a few more. Texas wins by a comfortable margin. I would add that if Texas plays a turnover free game and only gets 3 penalties for 25 yards, a 10+ point Texas win is very possible. I would not be shocked to see Texas 35, Michigan 17.
TCT Prediction: Texas Longhorns 30, Michigan Wolverines 24
Jim Nicar
Usually, I include a jewel from Jim at the end of the newsletter, along with music and other good stuff for those with the patience to read (or at least scroll) to the end. This week, a wonderful tie to Michigan.
“1913: D A M coaches. University of Texas football Assistant Coach Burton Rix (a Dartmouth graduate), Assistant Coach Joe Weir (Army), and Head Coach David Allerdice (Michigan) pose in their respective college letter sweaters. The photo actually drew some complaints for being “vulgar”.”
Dave Allerdice played halfback for Michigan 1907-1909. Allerdice was the head coach at The University of Texas from 1911-1915. He came to Austin when he was 25 years old, still the youngest coach in UT history. 36-11-1 at Texas, including a perfect 8-0 season in 1914,
Follow Jim on X
No. 4 Texas Longhorns 52, Colorado State Rams nil
Last Saturday’s shutout of the Rams was one of the most dominating opening game wins the Horns have played in a few years. I was listening to Ed Clements and Scottie Sayers on KLBJ driving home from the game when they read off the names of the players who caught passes – 11 Longhorns in one game. Wow. Ryan Wingo (4 for 70, long of 30), Isaiah Bond (5 for 61 and a TD, long of 23), Johntay Cook II (3 for 56, long of 40), Matthew Golden (3 for 50 with 2 TDs, long of 38). Gunnar Helm (2 for 42, long of 37). Jaydon Blue caught 3 passes, and Quintrevion Wisner, Juan Davis, Amari Niblack, Silas Bolden, and Ryan Niblett each with 1 catch.
Per Anwar Richardson, Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian said five players scored their first touchdown for Texas on Saturday, eight different players ran the football, 28 players had a tackle, 31 players played in their first game, 51 players played the first half, and 77 total players played.
Ewers: 20/27, 260 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception Good QBR of 71.9
Manning: 5/6, 95 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, very good QBR of 91.6. Great read to shovel the ball for a touchdown as a Ram defender closed in.
Very pleased with the running backs. I knew we had a good back up to Blue with Quintrevion Wisner – the freshman Jerrick Gibson showed we may have a little more depth than we thought. At least that’s my hope.
Hill and Gbenda had good games (both had a TFL, combined for 9 tackles). Guilbeau actually lead the Horns with 8 tackles. Barron Jahdae with an interception and 30 yard return. The diving interception by Wardell Mack with the toe-tap in the endzone to preserve the shutout.
Colorado State win was an all-around complete game from the Longhorns. A shut out by the defense, near perfection from the special teams (we only punted once, so hard to know about the punt team), and outside of a few bumpy moments in the first quarter, exceptional execution by the offense from the first team through I’m guessing some of the third team. Worth noting that punt, the only Texas punt, was on the first series.
The other amazing thing about last Saturday was what you didn’t see: a lot of penalty flags on Texas. 3 for 25 yards, and 2 of those were really out-of-character on Majors.
All in all, an A+ opening game performance by the players and the coaches. Attawaytogo Sark!
Highlights of the Texas Shutout
From @TexasClips, the condensed game.
Highlights from ESPN College Football
Full game highlights from Wheels, under 12 minutes:
Anyone else excited?
Texas Volleyball
Texas Volleyball opened the 2024 season on Sunday with a solid win over No. 3 Wisconsin, 3-1, then dropped a match to No. 18 Minnesota Monday night, 2-3. Thursday night, the Horns swept Indiana at Gregory Gym, 3-0. For those not making the trip to Ann Arbor, the Longhorns have a match with Miami (Florida) Saturday afternoon at 4:00 at Gregory Gym. Go support one of the best teams on the 40 Acres!
University of Michigan
There are not many schools we play in football who are at or above us, but Michigan is a really, really great American public university.
| Academic Rankings | ||
| National | ||
| Texas | Michigan | |
| Forbes | 31 | 29 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 32 | 21 |
| ARWU | 25 | 19 |
| Washington Monthly | 87 | 18 |
| Global | ||
| ARWU | 45 | 30 |
| QS | 66 | 44 |
| THE | 52 | 23 |
| U.S. News & World Report | 56 | 19 |
Michigan was founded in 1817. Founding member of the Association of American University. A bunch of schools and programs ranked among the best.
Michigan’s famous alumni list is fairly amazing. President Gerald Ford, 47 U.S. senators, 215 congressmen, many Cabinet members, including Secretaries of State, Agriculture, and the Interior. UM alums have been involved in the founding of Alphabet Inc (Google – Larry Page), Loews (Tisch), Domino’s Pizza (Tom Monahan), H&R Block (Henry W. Bloch), Related Companies (Stephen M. Ross), Rocket Mortgage (Gary Gilbert). Alumni have been at the top of some of America’s greatest companies, including Charlie Munger at Berkshire Hathaway, and one or more leaders through the years of Ford, GM, Boeing, Wells Fargo, American Airlines, General Mills, Chrysler, International Paper, PNC, Allstate, and Bain Capital.
In entertainment, James Earl Jones, Gilda Radner, Sanjay Gupta, and David Alan Grier.
Three Heisman winners – Tom Harmon, Desmond Howard, and Charles Woodson, and a guy named Tom Brady had a decent pro career. Barry Larkin played baseball at Michigan, and Michael Phelps swam for the Wolverines. Not bad.
AP Top 25 & Coaches Poll
Massey Ratings
Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan are the Top 5. Blue blooded.
ESPN College Football Power Index
ESPN SP+ from Bill Connelly
Week Two in the Southeastern Conference
I encourage you to go to YouTube and subscribe to SEC Shorts. They are clever and well done.
Arkansas (1-0) at No. 16 Oklahoma State (1-0). 11:00 a.m. on ABC/ESPN+. Arkansas is coming off the 70-0 shellacking of Arkansas Pine Bluff, the Cowboys beat the South Dakota State Jackrabbits 44-20. Okie A&M favored by 7.5, total is 62.5.
No. 1 Georgia (1-0) has Tennessee Tech at home between the hedges. 1:00 p.m. on ESPN+/SEC+. The Super Regional in Austin in 2018 when the Horns hosted Tennessee Tech is still one of the hottest times I can remember in Texas sports. There have been a couple of early football games that were up there, but I am pretty sure all 3 games of the series started at 12:00 noon, and we roasted. Texas won and went to the College World Series. As for the Georgia football game, no line on ESPN.
Cal Berkeley (1-0) at Auburn (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN2 from Jordan-Hare Stadium. Tigers favored by 13 over the Golden Bears, over/under is 53.5.
South Carolina (1-0) at Kentucky (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on ABC/ESPN2. Pretty good first SEC game of the year. Wildcats favored by 8.5, total is 42.5.
Middle Tennessee (1-0) at No. 6 Ole Miss (1-0), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+/SEC+. Kind of surprised ESPN is going to stream 3 or 4 top 10 SEC games this week. Rebels should smack the Blue Raiders. Ole Miss favored by 43 at home in Vaught-Hemingway. Total is 62.5.
South Florida Bulls (1-0) at No. 4 Alabama (1-0), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN. Bulls will be no match for the Tide. Bama favored by 31, total is 63.5.
Buffalo Bulls (1-0) at No. 9 Missouri (1-0), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+/SEC+. This used to be “State University of New York at Buffalo”, now it goes by “University at Buffalo”. Mizzou favored by 34.5, over/under is 51.5.
Samford (0-1) at Florida (0-1). 6:00 p.m. on ESPN+/SEC+. Gators will at least get to .500 this weekend. Man what a hard schedule.
Nicholls (0-1) at No. 18 Louisiana State (0-1) 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+/SEC+. This should be an epic beatdown of the Colonels by some angry Tigers. No line
No. 14 Tennessee (1-0) at No. 24 North Carolina State (1-0), 6:30 p.m. on ABC/ESPN+. The Duke’s Mayo Classic at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. This should be a decent football game. Vols favored by 10, total is 60.5.
Alcorn State (0-1) at Vanderbilt (1-0), 5:30 p.m. on ESPNU. Commodores coming of the huge overtime win against Virginia Tech. No line?
Houston (0-1) vs. No. 15 Oklahoma (1-0), 6:45 p.m. on the SEC Network. Houston lost their season opener to UNLV 7-27, and it wasn’t that close. Houston got their only touchdown with one minute left in the game. Cougars gave up 195 yards on the ground. The Land Thieves should win this one big. Okies favored by 28, over/under is 79.5.
Mississippi State (1-0) at Arizona State (1-0), 9:30 p.m. on ESPN. This will be a good nightcap game after getting back from Ann Arbor. Sun Devils favored by 5.5, over/under is 58.5.
Week 2: Service Academies
Army (1-0) at Florida Atlantic (0-1), 11:00 a.m. on CBSSN. Black Knights are 3.5 road underdogs, total is 42.5.
Temple (0-1) at Navy (1-0), 2:30 p.m. on CBSSN. Midshipmen favored by 2.5. Total is 44.5.
San Jose State (1-0) at Air Force (1-0), 6:00 p.m. on CBSSN. Falcons favored by 5, total is 44.5.
Top 25 – Week 2
Bowling Green at No. 8 PSU, 11:00 a.m. on BTN.
No. 17 Kansas State at Tulane, 11:00 a.m. on ESPN from Yulman Stadium in the Big Easy. Wildcats favored by 9, total at 47.5.
No. 25 Georgia Tech at Syracuse, 11:00 on the ACC Network. Yellow Jackets favored by 3, total at 47.5.
Northern Illinois at No. 5 Notre Dame, 2:30 on NBC/Peacock. Should be a beautiful day at L’Université de Notre Dame du Lac. Fighting Irish favored by 28 over the Huskies, total is 44.5. I would load the over on that one.
Baylor at No. 11 Utah. 2:30 p.m. on FOX. What a follow-up to Texas at Michigan. Utes favored by 14.5, over/under is 56.5.
Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa, 2:30 p.m. on CBS/Paramout+. Battle for the CyHawk Trophy. Still have a soft spot for Iowa State (Jack Trice). Hawkeyes favored by 3, over/under is 35.5. Not sure the prop bet on punts.
Jacksonville State at No. 22 Louisville, 2:30 p.m. on ESPN+/ACC Extra. Can you imagine paying extra to watch this game? Louisvile favored by 27.5, total is 56.5.
Florida A&M at No. 12 Miami (Florida), 5:00 p.m. on ESPN+/ACC Extra. Go Rattlers!
No. 19 Kansas at Illinois, 6:00 p.m. on FS1. Jayhawks favored by 4.5, total is 57.5. I like Kansas in this one.
Western Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State, 6:30 p.m. on BTN, from the Shoe. After the game in the Big House, Wolverines and Longhorns will be united in pulling for the Broncos. Western Michigan is in Kalamazoo. Little known fact. I have been a Big Band fan, and especially Glenn Miller fan, for over 50 years. Probably from watching World War 2 movies. I’ve Got a Gal in Kalamazoo. Tex Beneke. Go Broncs! Buckeyes favored by 38, total is 54.5
Appalachian State at No. 25 Clemson, 7:00 p.m. on ACC Network. App State has a history of going into the toughest environments and beating the big boys. 2007, App State 34, Michigan 32. September 10, 2022, Appalachian State Mountaineers 17, Texas Agricultural & Mechanical 14. Clemson favored by 16.5, total is 52.5. Might lay a little on App State.
Boise State at No. 8 Oregon, 9:00 p.m. on Peacock. How does Phil Knight let his Ducks get streamed in West Coast primetime? Oregon favored by 21.5, total at 60.5.
Northern Arizona at No. 20 Arizona, 9:00 p.m. on ESPN+.
Utah State at No. 13 Southern Cal. 10:00 p.m. on BTN. I guess I am going have to finally figure out how to watch the Big Ten Network in Austin. Trojans favored by 28.5, total is 63.5. Might take the Mormon aggies and those points. Sorry Art & Walt.
Other Games of Interest – Week 2
Friday Night
I am actually not really personally interested in the contest in Dallas between the Mormons and the Methodists. I include it here for two reasons. First, shout out to my friend Dick Anderson. Second, to include one of my very favorite all-time social media posts in the history of the interwebs. My gosh the Ponies crushed it with this one. Whoop!
https://x.com/SMUFB/status/1565732504073433088?s=20
Southern Methodist (2-0) and Brigham Young (1-0) play Friday night in the Bubble (75205), 6:00 p.m. on ESPN2. Mustangs favored by 11.5, over/under at 55.5.
Ann Arbor
I am doing an up and back Saturday. More on that next week. So I won’t see much of Ann Arbor. Love this photo of the Graduate hotel. Rumor on social media was that Mr. Cooper Manning paid to have the flags up. Not so sure about that, but love the colors anyway.
Juan Heisman Tailgate
The Juan Heisman Tailgate is SEC ready! A really great opening game tailgate party on Saturday. Great times.
Early Crew.
Grant Martin, Sloan Byerly (in line with the Suburban at 4:45 a.m.), Rick Whiteley, Collin Shaw, Bill Skeen, and Lifetime Longhorn, No. 36 Nathan Thornhill (9-3, 1.51 ERA, 1.053 WHIP his senior year as our Friday Night starter [2014]).
Tom Campbell 1969 and Selvin Young 2005
For those who don’t remember Tom Campbell, from the Texas Hall of Honor:
A walk-on as a freshman, Campbell was named the Outstanding Defensive Player in the 1969 Cotton Bowl victory over Tennessee, was a key player in the National Championship season of 1969, and was selected as a consensus All-SWC defensive back that year. One of the twin sons of Longhorn defensive coach Mike Campbell, Tom finished his career with 13 interceptions, leading the SWC in this stat in 1969, and was spectacularly significant on specific plays in his two years as a starter. His two interceptions in the Tennessee game earned him the Cotton Bowl honor, but it would be two plays in the last two games of his senior season of 1969 which would alter the course of Texas football history. The first came after the Longhorns had taken a 15-14 lead over Arkansas in the Game of the Century matching the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country. As the Razorbacks drove for what could have been a game-winning score with 2:22 remaining, Campbell picked off Bill Montgomery’s pass at the Longhorn 21 yard line, sealing the victory and putting Texas in the Cotton Bowl game against Notre Dame. In the Notre Dame game, Campbell preserved a 21-17 Longhorn victory with his interception of a Theismann pass as the Irish were driving to a winning touchdown in the waning moments of the game. Currently, Campbell resides in Austin and is in business for himself.
Thanks to JD Gins and Texas Beer Company for being there again, serving up great craft beer, Taylor-Made. And thanks for the shirt JD! Floated 3 kegs. Wild Kolsch and Pecos Amber.
Emily, Claudia, & Kate
Selvin Young, TCT, & Tom Campbell
Jay B. Sauceda, TCT, & D. Kent Lance
Photos from JHT over the years:
Juan Heisman Tailgate 25th Anniversary – Austin Horns Fan Dispatch
SEC – Week One
Friday Night
The No. 16 Land Thieves beat the Temple Owls 51-3, covering.
Saturday
No. 1 Georgia 34-3 over No. 14 Clemson as expected. Tigers kept in close in the first half, but the Dawgs had a 28-3 second half. The line was around 13 to give you an idea of either how good Georgia is and/or how far Clemson is continuing to slip as Dabo eschews the portal and The New Way in college football (aggies, I know “eschew” is a big word – here is the link in Merriam-Webster). Klubnik was 18/29 for 142 with a pick. Carson Beck was 23/33 for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Vanderbilt 34, Virginia Tech 27, in overtime. What a way for the Dores to start 2024. 13.5 point dogs and they beat the Hokies. And blew the hatch off the over/under (48.5).
Tennessee 69-3 over Chattanooga. The Vols covered the line (38.5) and the total (56.5). Good day to bet on Rocky Top.
No. 19 Miami (Florida) went into the Swamp as narrow 2.5 point favorites over the Florida Gators. It wasn’t close. 41-17 Canes. Ouch.
Old Dominion 19, South Carolina 23. Bet that was painfully scary for Gamecock fans.
Eastern Kentucky 7, Mississippi State 56. Bulldogs cover.
Western Kentucky at No. 5 Alabama just kept right on rolling as if nothing has changed as they shutout the Hilltoppers 63-0.
It was a bad day to be a Paladin. 76-0 in Oxford. Lane and Rebs showed almost no mercy. Ole Miss was up 52 to nothing on Furman at half and hung another 21 in the third quarter before finally taking their foot off the pedal. Rebs cover the line and the total.
No. 7 Notre Dame 23-13 over No. 20 Texas Agricultural & Mechanical. I suspect most of y’all watched and know it was a lot closer. But the Fighting Irish had enough gas in the final minutes of the game to get the win over the Fightin’ Texas Aggies.
War Eagle 73-3 over Alabama A&M. Like a few others, Auburn covers the line and the total.
Kentucky 31-0 over Southern Miss, a game that was delayed for 2 hours and then called with about 10 minutes left in the third quarter after more lightening. The game was over “by mutual agreement of the participating institutions as permitted by NCAA rules”. NCAA Rule 3, Section 3, Article 3, and under 3-3-3-c, the choices are resume the game, terminate with a determined final score, forfeit the game, or declare a no contest. They agreed on termination with the final score being binding.
Sunday
The game in Las Vegas was excellent. No. 23 Southern Cal defeated No. 14 Louisiana State 27-20. Trojans covered, and they didn’t smell the 64.5 total.
Week 1: Service Academies
I didn’t get the service academy games in last week’s edition of the AHFD. Still getting in my writing rhythm.
Air Force beat Merrimack 21-6.
Army hammered Lehigh 42-7. The Black Knights rushed for 375 yards against the Mountain Hawks.
Navy smoked the Bucknell Bison 49-21. Middies ran for 264 yards.
Top 25 – Week 1
No. 2 Ohio State 52-6 over the Akron Zips. Solid homeowner for the least favorite team in the FBS.
The Idaho Vandals gave the No. 3 Oregon a surprisingly good game, but the Ducks prevailed 24-14. The line was 43.5. Vegas doesn’t miss that big very often. Will be curious to see how the Ducks play this week.
No. 8 Penn State 34-12 over West Virginia at Milan Puskar Stadium. Tough place to play and win.
No. 17 Oklahoma State 44-20 over the FCS South Dakota State Jackrabbits.
No. 18 Kansas State throttled Tennessee Martin 41-6.
No. 21 Arizona 61, New Mexico 39. The score was 27-24 Cats at half, and I thought a huge upset was brewing. Nope.
No. 25 Iowa shutout Illinois State 40-0.
Other Games of Interest – Week 1
Late Saturday night, the game in Lubbock was of great interest as Abilene Christian led by Maverick McIvor (yes, his son) took the Sand Aggies to overtime, got the ball second in OT after Tech scored a touchdown, and by gosh they went for 2 and the win. Didn’t succeed, and Coach Joey and his boys escaped home humiliation. McIvor, San Angelo Central, was 36 of 51 for 506 yards and 3 touchdowns. But Sunday morning, the game took on a new light, as on their way home to Abilene, the ACU bus was hit by a 19 year old drunk driver. Fortunately, only some minor injuries, but still terrible. Glad the ACU players and coaches were pretty much okay.
Texas Christian went to Palo Alto and came home with a 34-27 win over The Leland Stanford Junior University.
Nebraska hammered UTEP 40-7.
North Texas 52-38 over South Alabama.
Virginia beat Richmond 34-13. Go Hoos!
Sam Houston 34-14 over Rice.
The mighty Miami Redhawks lost a close one to Northwestern, 6-13.
Washington & Lee
The Generals travel to Maryland to play the Salisbury University Sea Gulls. 1:00 p.m. Saturday. Good luck Gennies!
Football Week 1 Preview: Salisbury – Washington and Lee University (generalssports.com)
Quarterback Rating
One of our Texas football text groups got in a discussion on Sunday quarterback ratings. The numbers can look very different depending on which boxscore you are reading. When you see “rating” or RTG, you are usually going to see a higher number, as the passer rating or passer efficiency just calculates a rating based on the quarterback’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions.
QBR is a different animal. This metric, developed by ESPN, takes into account the quarterback’s rushing (including context – e.g., design run or scramble), sacks, penalties, and turnovers. It attempts to measure the quarterback’s impact on the game. In passing, it is not just attempts, completions, and yards, but also the difficulty of the throw, the defense the quarterback is playing (I assume, for example, a 30 yard completion into coverage against the No. 1 pass defense in the NCAA gets more a lot more points than a 8 yard completion against the 132nd pass defense in the NCAA). Somehow, it also accounts for the objective stats plus decision making and situational context. For a more detailed explanation, Mike Farrell has an excellent article; example: QBR accounts for situational context by adjusting “for the game situation, such as the down and distance, score differential, and time remaining. Plays in high-leverage situations (e.g., fourth-quarter comebacks) are weighted more heavily.”
In the Colorado State game, Quinn Ewers was 20 of 27, 74.1% completion 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. His rating was 184.2. However, his QBR was 71.9. Entirely different scale, entirely different calculation. By way of comparison, Ram quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolisi was 10/18, 59 yards, 0 TDs, 1 pick. His RTG was 72.0, and his QBR was 19.1.
If you look at an ESPN boxscore, they will give the QBR. If you click on the player’s name and go down a page, it will give his rating (RTG) in the game and on the season with splits.
Music
I figure a few Michigan folks will find this in their inbox at some point on Friday, so I thought I would take the opportunity to introduce them to some great Texas music. About 3 hours into listening to Texas music, I was at an absolute loss as to what to include. All-time greats like Willie Nelson and George Strait? Classics like Bob Wills and George Jones? Jerry Jeff Walker. Kenny Rogers. Gary P. Nunn. Townes Van Zandt. Linda Ronstadt.
The subgenre of Texas country which I largely attribute to Robert Earl Keen and Lyle Lovett, and all the artists and songs since Front Porch Song. Pat Green, Cory Morrow, Randy Rogers, Kevin Fowler, Roger Creager, and Wade Bowen. What about a few of those guys from the other side of the Red River like Jason Boland and Cody Canada (Cross Canadian Ragweed)?
What about the rock and rollers, starting with Bill Haley & His Comets and Buddy Holly & the Crickets? Roy Orbison. Janis Joplin. That guy Don Henley who did pretty well with The Eagles. Steve Ray Vaughan, of course. ZZ Top.
What about Scott Joplin, one of the most influential jazz artists of his time and one of the real early ragtime stars? Blind Lemon Jefferson, Father of the Texas Blues? Ornette Coleman, the great saxophonist who is recognized for his influence on the free jazz movement and improvisation.
R&B? We have a few. Barry White. Sly Stone. Usher. Nelly. For starters. How about Beyoncé?
The genre named after our state – Tejano. Selena is one of the biggest Texas music stars in my lifetime. Little Joe and La Familia, Flaco Jimenez, Mazz, and Johnny Rodriguez.
Van Clyburn. Barbara Smith Conrad. James Dick.
I can’t even make a list. So I am going with a few great Texas artists with direct ties to Austin or The University of Texas at Austin.
Stevie Ray Vaughan & Double Trouble, Pride and Joy
Jerry Jeff Walker, Up Against the Wall Redneck Mother
Tex Ritter, Streets of Laredo
Janis Joplin, Piece of My Heart
Nancy Griffith, Love at the Five and Dime
Kinky Friedman, Ride ‘Em Jewboy
Ray Benson & Asleep at the Wheel, Miles and Miles of Texas
Willie Nelson was in the season preview edition of the Austin Horns Fan Dispatch. You can go check out that songlist in my blog post:
https://austinhornsfan.com/austin-horns-fan-dispatch-2024-season-preview/
Picture of the Week
From JType’s Instagram account July 21, 2024.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C9s4tBTvOsS/?igsh=MWtsbzR1dGw1YXZyYg
God Bless Texas
God Bless America
Tim Taylor
Member, Football Writers Association of America
Tailgating before Home Football Games
The Juan Heisman Tailgate
Lot 38, East of Sid Richardson Hall
HOOK EM HORNS!!
The Austin Horns Fan Dispatch
© Timothy C. Taylor, Sr. 2024. All Rights Reserved (as to original material).
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Tim Taylor P.O. Box 5371 Austin, Texas 78763-5371